# The Trump Recession
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592
**Category:** Politics & Elections
**Tags:** trump
**Created:** [February 20, 2025, 8:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592 "2025-02-20T20:13:47Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 26
### Author:  [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)
#### Post date: [December 23, 2025, 1:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/501 "2025-12-23T01:11:16Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#):
>
> Sales of bourbon are down, especially to Canada (down 85%).
Hey, I congratulated you Great White Northerners for your successful boycott over in the Schadenfreude thread.
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### Author:  [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)
#### Post date: [December 23, 2025, 1:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/502 "2025-12-23T01:33:37Z")
> [@bobot](#):
>
> It’s…wait.
> Two weeks.
> **[Trump is 'bored, tired and running on fumes' — and he's given up the fight:...](https://www.rawstory.com/trump-bored-2674820811/)**
>
> A year into his second term, Donald Trump has undergone a major change in “tactics” as he deflects questions about his policies — and it's an indication that he is now “just running on fumes," an analyst wrote Monday.Salon’s Amanda Marcotte pointed...
> Salon’s Amanda Marcotte pointed out that the president has developed an over-reliance on deflecting questions while claiming he is not up to speed on the topic or person he is being asked about, and that often begins with, “I don’t know…”
>
> That is a change from his previous deflections, where he promised everything would sort itself out in “two weeks.”
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### Author:  [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)
#### Post date: [December 23, 2025, 1:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/503 "2025-12-23T01:36:39Z")
From that article, “It’s a small thing, but one of the many green shoots suggesting that, while this is not the end of MAGA, it may very well be the end’s beginning.” If so, good.
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### Author:  [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)
#### Post date: [December 23, 2025, 1:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/504 "2025-12-23T01:37:30Z")
I thought the go-to tactic at this point was to Blame Biden.
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### Author:  [@wguy123](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wguy123)
#### Post date: [December 23, 2025, 1:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/505 "2025-12-23T01:41:46Z")
Any guess on the chances that [foxnews.com](http://foxnews.com) is carrying this news?
If you guessed 0.0%, you won a prize.
Also, it says no layoffs at this point. But what about tomorrow?
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### Author:  [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)
#### Post date: [December 23, 2025, 1:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/506 "2025-12-23T01:47:35Z")
How do you shutdown a facility like that for a year without laying off anyone?
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### Author:  [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)
#### Post date: [December 23, 2025, 1:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/507 "2025-12-23T01:50:26Z")
It was my understanding they were laying off 1500 employees.
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### Author:  [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)
#### Post date: [December 23, 2025, 1:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/508 "2025-12-23T01:51:57Z")
Trump claimed that he was going to bring manufacturing back to the US.
Well, Trump was so successful, that Jim Beam made so much liquor that they can’t sell enough, so they’ve stopped making it for a while. That’s a lot of manufacturing!
See, he’s winning! So much winning!
(I expect that to actually be a right-wing talking point eventually.)
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### Author:  [@wguy123](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wguy123)
#### Post date: [December 23, 2025, 1:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/509 "2025-12-23T01:54:22Z")
I can’t find anything on layoffs…yet (I’m sure they are coming). But in searching this, I found out that Jack Daniels laid of 12% of it’s workforce earlier this year. Sounds like these tariffs are going swimmingly for Kentucky and Tennessee. They’ll be lined up to vote for Trump a 4th time in 2028.
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### Author:  [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)
#### Post date: [December 23, 2025, 1:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/510 "2025-12-23T01:54:26Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#):
>
> It was my understanding they were laying off 1500 employees.
The article in The Guardian on this says, “Jim Beam said it was assessing how it would use its workforce while it paused production and was in talks with its workers’ union.”
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### Author:  [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)
#### Post date: [December 23, 2025, 2:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/511 "2025-12-23T02:06:14Z")
> [@Dewey\_Finn](#):
>
> From that article, “It’s a small thing, but one of the many green shoots suggesting that, while this is not the end of MAGA, it may very well be the end’s beginning.” If so, good.
So long as Trump’s approval numbers ([42 percent tonight per Nate Silver](https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin)) continue to dwarf those of [Starmer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Approval_polling) and [Macron](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_Emmanuel_Macron_presidency#Graphical_summary), I don’t believe it.
There is no Trump Recession yet because Donald is only charging a fraction of the tariff rates he earlier threatened. This is delaying the inevitable recession. Next year, he’ll put a toady in the Federal Reserve who can further delay the next recession – even though the delays will probably make it worse when recession, at an unknowable future date, comes.
Jim Beam is atypical.
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### Author:  [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)
#### Post date: [December 23, 2025, 2:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/512 "2025-12-23T02:11:51Z")
Perhaps not so atypical. I believe Ford Motor Company is cutting back on production of its electric vehicles and the end of federal incentives on the sales of electric vehicles by the Trump administration certainly doesn’t help.
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### Author:  [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)
#### Post date: [December 23, 2025, 4:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/513 "2025-12-23T04:14:01Z")
> [@dtilque](#):
>
> Hey, I congratulated you Great White Northerners for your successful boycott over in the Schadenfreude thread.
Thanks, but I don’t go to the Pit. It’s on my Ignore list.
(I know we can’t identify posters that we’re ignoring, but I don’t think that applies to forums.)
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### Author:  [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)
#### Post date: [December 23, 2025, 4:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/514 "2025-12-23T04:39:42Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#):
>
> Thanks, but I don’t go to the Pit. It’s on my Ignore list.
I don’t go to the Pit either, but occasionally there’s a thread I see in the recent posts list that I find interesting and follow it. Sometimes those are in the Pit, but that doesn’t keep me from following it.
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### Author:  [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)
#### Post date: [December 23, 2025, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/515 "2025-12-23T19:48:54Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#):
>
> There is no Trump Recession yet because Donald is only charging a fraction of the tariff rates he earlier threatened. This is delaying the inevitable recession. Next year, he’ll put a toady in the Federal Reserve who can further delay the next recession – even though the delays will probably make it worse when recession, at an unknowable future date, comes.
And O, the _ **inflation** _!!!
(Donald’s flunky will certainly drop interest rates, which will fuel ye olde price rises mightily.)
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### Author:  [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)
#### Post date: [February 21, 2026, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/516 "2026-02-21T17:26:17Z")
I’m bumping this because we now have revised numbers from 2025. For the entire first year of Trump’s presidency, the country only added 181,000 jobs. In 2024, by comparison, the country added 1.46 million jobs.
> [@](#):
>
> Wednesday’s report also shows that not nearly as many jobs were added in 2025 as thought and last year will go down as the worst year for hiring since 2020, or since 2003 outside of a recession.
>
> Additionally, the BLS subtracted 862,000 jobs from March 2024 through March 2025 as part of its annual revisions.
>
> For 2025, Wednesday’s revisions show that the labor market contracted during four months — January, June, August and October. Previously, data showed a net loss of jobs in only three months.
> **[U.S. added 130,000 jobs in January, but labor market growth stalled in 2025](https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/january-jobs-revisions-trump-rcna258398)**
>
> The Bureau of Labor Statistics found that U.S. employers added 181,000 jobs last year, far fewer than the 1.46 million jobs that were added in 2024.
> **[Turns out the U.S. economy didn't create half a million jobs last year. It...](https://fortune.com/2026/02/11/how-many-jobs-did-us-economy-trump-create-2025-weakest-since-pandemic/)**
>
> It was the weakest year for jobs creation since the pandemic year of 2020, according to the January jobs report.
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### Author:  [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)
#### Post date: [February 21, 2026, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/517 "2026-02-21T18:07:40Z")
And from various reports, pretty much all the new jobs being created recently are not in manufacturing, but rather health care. This is due to aging Baby Boomers, the oldest of which are now 80 years old.
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### Author:  [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)
#### Post date: [February 21, 2026, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/518 "2026-02-21T18:10:41Z")
Oh, and the dreaded trade deficit?
Yeah, that didn’t go down.
> [@](#):
>
> The US trade deficit became very large in December and reached $70.3 billion, according to new data from the US Commerce Department. This closed the year with a total 2025 trade deficit of $901.5 billion, which is one of the biggest yearly gaps recorded since 1960. The deficit grew mainly because imports increased by 3.6%, while exports actually fell by 1.7% in December. Economists expected a smaller deficit of about $55.5 billion, but the actual number came out much higher.
> **[US posts one of its largest annual trade deficits since 1960, raising...](https://m.economictimes.com/news/international/us/us-posts-one-of-its-largest-annual-trade-deficits-since-1960-raising-economic-concerns-heres-what-drove-it/amp_articleshow/128566108.cms)**
>
> The US trade deficit became very large in 2025 and worried economists. The gap grew because imports increased while exports dropped. Tariffs, AI equipment buying, and changing trade with different countries also affected the numbers. Experts say...
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### Author:  [@Pardel-Lux](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pardel-Lux)
#### Post date: [February 21, 2026, 6:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/519 "2026-02-21T18:19:19Z")
So on the way to the postulated tanTrump Recession in the title of this thread we start with the tanTrump stagnation. Then we’ll add inflation, so we get the tanTrump stagflation, _then_ we finally top it with the tanTrump Recession. When he finally croaks we transition seamlessly to the MAGA Recession. When I write “we” I mean a rhetorical “we”, of course. It’s really _him_.
Good plan, go ahead.
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### Author:  [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)
#### Post date: [February 22, 2026, 12:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/520 "2026-02-22T00:18:31Z")
> [@Moriarty](#):
>
> Oh, and the dreaded trade deficit?
>
> Yeah, that didn’t go down.
The trade deficit, of course, being the “emergency” that granted Trump (according to him) the power to impose tariffs and otherwise muck up the economy.
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