I’ve heard Ford’s tax on energy exports referred to as a “tariff” a few times now. (Not saying that’s what you mean, wguy123). I hope it’s understood that a Canadian tax on exports to the US should have the same effect on US energy producers/consumers that a US tax on the same imports would have. Trump should be thanking Ford for his initiative in doing what Trump says he wants to do.
I know first year economics is too subtle for the media but I assume dopers can understand it.
Not to his (Trump’s) mind. It’s who imposes the tax that is important. Also, Trump thinks his tariffs are paid by the foreign government, while the tax imposed by Ontario is obviously paid by Americans.
Yacht? Crash the economy and the whole country will be for sale at ‘going out of business’ prices.
Yep, that is what I am referring to. The Fox News article calls it a tariff:
Looking at other news sites, seems to be what most are calling it. Some are also calling it a surcharge.
Oh! Perhaps I can buy a yacht.
I don’t want donald’s because EWWWW.
I’d suggest keeping your eye on the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the board and Chair of the Federal Reserve.
If Trump can convert those to flunkies, we lose the trustworthiness of the core of America’s economic statistics. At that point, do time the market.
How it started:
How it’s going:
Hey, he’s working on reducing lots of people’s capital gains taxes.
Yeah, the media is not the best place to learn about economics.
I suspect that the “electricity” that the US gets from Canada is mostly (if not all) hydro-electric. Something like 75% of the electricity generated in Canada is either hydro or nuclear.
It wouldn’t surprise me that much of the electricity sold to the US is so-called ‘Green Energy’ and has a market because industry and/or residential users are trying to reduce ther carbon footprint. Perhaps even paying a premium for the electricity. If those customers still want the ‘Green’ electricity, they will pay the surcharge. If they decide not to pay it, their electric bill could even go down (f they are currently paying a premium).
It’s like Trump believes these customers have no choice but to pay the higher price (not true). As if they will not have any electricity if Canada cuts them off (not true). Like the best way to get along with your neighbors is to be a colossal jackass (not true). Once some people who know what is going on get to talk to the Orangeanus, this will be forgotten.
Right, but I kind of suspect he doesn’t even need that. Just spout whatever numbers he wants. Or don’t do numbers at all, just adjectives.
“Beautiful, strongly, no one’s ever seen…”
DOW closed down again. We are now down 1.5% over the last 6 months!
I can see the Dow falling 1.5% over the last ten months, and falling 1.5% over the last 15 months, and falling dynamically over the last 20 months one after the other. Must not come to pass, but it looks conceivable to me. Crazy days. That would show on the one hand how fast the Dow has risen in the last years (thank you, Brandon!), and on the other hand how incompetent the current administration, and I use that term loosely, is.
I expect unemployment is going to spike, what with Musk and DOGE firing people and cutting spending.
It’s not just the direct elimination of government jobs that is happening. There is also a ripple effect from all of the cuts to government funding.
https://www.axios.com/2025/03/13/johns-hopkins-2000-layoffs-federal-aid-trump-cuts
This could go into a number of threads, which is bad sign already, but I will put it here. Seems fitting enough.
Reading an article in the NYT (no gift link this time, I am not in the mood) there is a quote I want to share:
So competent leaders and nations rely on relationships built on shared values, shared history and shared trust. They construct coalitions to take on the big challenges of the age, including the biggest: whether the 21st century is going to be a Chinese century or another American century.
President Trump does not seem to notice or care that if you betray people, or jerk them around, they will revile you. Over the last few weeks, the Europeans have gone from shock to bewilderment to revulsion. This period was for them what 9/11 was for us — the stripping away of illusions, the exposure of an existential threat. The Europeans have realized that America, the nation they thought was their friend, is actually a rogue superpower.
I agree completely. In case someone wonders: whatever happens next is not due to lack of goodwill on our side. It is just that now we know that you cannot be trusted anymore.
We can’t. Even after all the crap that’s been happening, Trump still has something like a 44% approval rating. The tiny amount of people who have switched from approval since he took office are probably only because they were personally screwed.
Most people aren’t really thinkers, you know, unless they’re personally affected. I would disregard my mother’s appraisal of Trump’s performance, or Biden’s performance, or her mayor’s performance.
Just my opinion, but I think Musk is the one that’s wearing the can for the BS as opposed to Trump himself leaving Trump an out. Unless Trump drops to around 30% the Republicans won’t have much to worry about.
I think this is the right thread to put this. Here is a .pdf file called Trade War Blues.
Overview and Key Takeaways
The rise of the trade war and tit-for-tat tariffs between nations has driven uncertainty skyward and fueled concern over the US economic outlook. While numerous surveys have pointed out rising pessimism among consumers, the more immediate impact may turn out to be a decline in business investment as both businesses and lenders remain cautious in the face of uncertainty. Less business investment would weigh on the economy both the short and long-runs and could perpetuate other risks – like low levels of hiring, which leaves the economy susceptible to rapid rises in unemployment.
Even before the start of the trade war in early 2025, business investment was slowing. With trade uncertainty recently hitting an all-time high it’s likely that businesses and lenders will remain cautious until we gain more clarity around the policy path forward.
History shows that banks cut bank on lending to businesses during the last trade war and there are reasons why that dynamic may be larger this time. Banks entered 2025 with tight lending standards, business delinquency is on the rise, and some banks are still dealing with large unrealized losses in their securities portfolios - which can reduce their lending capacity.
While the labor market remains on decent footing, it has been struggling with a low hiring rate and is slow to absorb people looking for work. Weaker business investment could continue to drive this trend, which leaves the economy vulnerable to a rapid rise in unemployment if layoffs pick up.
There are graphs that show that business investment shrank in Q4 2024, Trade policy uncertainty index, tightening business lending, and the hiring rate.
S&P closed down over 3% over the last SIX months (DOW down 1.75% over the same period). If you go back to beginning of July 2024, you’ll be even with where we are now.
When do all the tariffs really kick in? Next week? Oh, cool.