# The Trump Resignation Pool **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 17, 2017, 5:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-resignation-pool/789168 "2017-06-17T05:46:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 13
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2018, 6:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-resignation-pool/789168/241 "2018-07-15T18:27:40Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > That’s . . . um . . . > > If we adopt this view, then no future prediction can be called out for being wrong. Or you might just wait to have a natural hook to hang it on in some other conversation. How weird. I know. 🙂 But you know, that’s how conversations tend to work. When talking with other people, you don’t tend to just bring up long-forgotten (by most) conversations out of nowhere, apropos of nothing. I mean, you _can_, nothing’s stopping you. But everybody’s gonna go, “hunh? WTF??” Which is pretty much what you’re experiencing here. Anyhow, that wasn’t my point, which was you can’t ignore stuff that isn’t there in any meaningful sense. Nobody was _ignoring_ anything when you bumped this thread. Now I’m _ignoring_ the rest of what you said. It’s present. The word applies. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Economist](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/c89c15/32.png) [@Evil\_Economist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Economist)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2018, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-resignation-pool/789168/242 "2018-07-15T21:09:50Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > If we adopt this view, then no future prediction can be called out for being wrong. The prediction is, perforce, a forecast that some future event will occur. If the prediction fails to materialize, it seems obvious to me that pointing out the failure of accuracy is significant. Since noting ever happens with 100% certainty, predictions are simply expressions of likelihoods, expressed in informal language. Which means a prediction could be correct even if the forecasted event didn’t happen. You seem to be claiming that all predictions are statements of 100% certainty, which is wrong. I bet you understand this in different contexts, so it’s weird that you don’t understand it in this one. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2018, 9:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-resignation-pool/789168/243 "2018-07-15T21:32:54Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > …But you know, that’s how conversations tend to work. When talking with other people, you don’t tend to just bring up long-forgotten (by most) conversations out of nowhere, apropos of nothing. > > … I see you never got into an argument with my wife, then. Good for you! 😉 ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2018, 11:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-resignation-pool/789168/244 "2018-07-15T23:50:58Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > I see you never got into an argument with my wife, then. Good for you! 😉 Yeah, my mom was like that too. Made sure to marry someone who wasn’t anything like her. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2018, 1:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-resignation-pool/789168/245 "2018-07-16T01:52:15Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > One thing I could not have predicted: the depravity of the entire Republican party, which is now becoming more and more apparent. Yes, I had low expectations for Republicans, but I am truly shocked seeing the depths of hypocrisy and dereliction displayed by Ryan, McConnell, Nunes & the House Intel committee. Hell, even Jeff Flake with all his public hand-wringing, followed by a total failure to do anything of substance. Another thing I failed to see was to see the economy chugging along, though we’ll note the DJIA is down on the year. It seems the economy has enough steam to continue the Obama expansion, but Trump keeps kneecapping it with his tariff nonsense. Watching for oil and soybean prices as a wildcard here. Another thing I failed to predict was the utter depravity of the Republican base in cheerfully swallowing the bait while Trump fawned over Kim Jong Un, gave away major concessions, and got zilch in return. His frauds become more evident by the day, and his base more credulous. Other wildcards are the 2018 election… whether it’s a Blue Wave, or not, or some chaotic nightmare scenario of hacking and uncertainty. With Manafort in jail and Cohen feeling the pinch, and Mueller into the 14th month of the investigation, I can’t see how this thing can struggle on for yet another year. So if my original prediction doesn’t pan out in the next 6 weeks, auto-renew my subscription for August 2019. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2018, 3:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-resignation-pool/789168/246 "2018-07-16T03:43:16Z")
> [@sfriver](#): > > In America it is unconstitutional to investigate without evidence first. Which section of the Constitution says that? ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2018, 3:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-resignation-pool/789168/247 "2018-07-16T03:48:49Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > But you know, that’s how conversations tend to work. When talking with other people, you don’t tend to just bring up long-forgotten (by most) conversations out of nowhere, apropos of nothing. On the contrary, I remembered it, and refuse to be bound by your inability to remember it. Start a diary. “Dear Diary, Today I predicted Trump would resign in a week and everybody on the SDMB cheered. It was the bestest day ever.” ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2018, 9:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-resignation-pool/789168/248 "2018-07-16T09:41:23Z")
> [@sfriver](#): > > In America it is unconstitutional to investigate without evidence first. > > My prediction is Trump for two terms. I take home an extra roughly $75 per paycheck, plus I save $700 per year from the Obamacare mandate being eliminated. MAGA. > > His ace in the hole is the marijuana card. If he rightly makes it a state’s decision like he is leaning to do it will be all over for the liberals. MAGA. Woooo, $75 per paycheck. Guess it makes the alienation of allies and adoration of dictators all worthwhile. Who cares about dismantling of environmental laws and attacks on civil rights when you’ve got that massive reduction in taxes? Now you’re free to skip out on health insurance and head for bankruptcy when you (heaven forbid) get into an accident or develop cancer. And OMG the marijuana issue! Certainly everybody will abandon liberalism once the Mighty Donald takes his jackboot off the necks of the states! We’re doomed, doomed I tell ya. Regarding predictions, some take it more seriously than others. I find it fun to project my hopes and dreams into my predictions, then if I’m right I’m the second coming of Jeanne Dixon. I predict good outcomes so that I’m pleased if I’m right, sort of like how I predict Michigan State to win the Big Ten every year. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2018, 3:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-resignation-pool/789168/249 "2018-07-16T15:03:14Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > On the contrary, I remembered it, and refuse to be bound by your inability to remember it. _ **Bricker** unbound!!_ 😃 Funny, I don’t recall suggesting I could bind you. Trust me, nothing would interest me less. :eek: Seriously, goody goody for you. Congratulations on your excellent memory. And by all means, keep on [ignoring things that are not there.](https://genius.com/The-young-rascals-no-love-to-give-lyrics) 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2018, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-resignation-pool/789168/250 "2018-07-16T15:09:45Z")
> [@sfriver](#): > > I take home an extra roughly $75 per paycheck, plus I save $700 per year from the Obamacare mandate being eliminated. A $2/hour increase in the minimum wage would increase lower-paid workers’ paychecks by $4160/year. I don’t know how often you get paid (weekly? monthly? in between?) but among Dems, the only question is whether the minimum wage should be increased from its current $7.25/hour to $12 or $15 or somewhere in between. That beats Trump’s tax cut every which way, unless you’re already pretty affluent. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2018, 3:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-resignation-pool/789168/251 "2018-07-16T15:21:53Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > On the contrary, I remembered it, and refuse to be bound by your inability to remember it. Start a diary. “Dear Diary, Today I predicted Trump would resign in a week and everybody on the SDMB cheered. It was the bestest day ever.” Ive got a prediction: That ain’t gonna happen (emphasis added). You can hold me to it!! ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Economist](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/c89c15/32.png) [@Evil\_Economist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Economist)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2018, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-resignation-pool/789168/252 "2018-07-16T17:39:11Z")
> [@sfriver](#): > > I save $700 per year from the Obamacare mandate being eliminated. MAGA. So…you don’t have insurance? I suspect at some point in your life you will wish you only had to pay $700. ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2018, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-resignation-pool/789168/253 "2018-07-16T21:13:25Z")
> [@Evil\_Economist](#): > > So…you don’t have insurance? I suspect at some point in your life you will wish you only had to pay $700. I’m guessing the “$700 per year” is the penalty assessed on those who don’t buy insurance (due to the “mandate”). ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Economist](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/c89c15/32.png) [@Evil\_Economist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Economist)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2018, 1:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-resignation-pool/789168/254 "2018-07-17T01:12:26Z")
> [@Sherrerd](#): > > I’m guessing the “$700 per year” is the penalty assessed on those who don’t buy insurance (due to the “mandate”). The mandate was designed so that for most people it would be more expensive to pay the mandate then to simply get insurance, so this guy could (probably) have gotten insurance for less than he paid in penalties, and as bonus he would have had insurance. Even if insurance had been more than the penalty, it’s generally better to have insurance than not to have it. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2018, 2:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-resignation-pool/789168/255 "2018-07-17T02:25:15Z")
I blew off this thread when it started because it was obviously ridiculous. Trump relishes shoving his victory in everyones’ faces far too much to ever resign. But in today’s interview with Jeff Glor he said that he had a great life before but being president is ever better. He really likes it. So my mind is now open. It’s a given that Trump lies every time he opens his mouth. If he insists he never said something, you know that someone is on file and easily searched. If he accuses the Democrats of doing something, you know for sure that he’s the one doing it. If he says he’s the smartest or best or greatest, you know for sure that he’s second-rate at best. So if he says he’s loving being the President, you know that he hates every minute of it that’s not spent in front of cheering crowds in campaign mode, the part of the job that’s actually being the President. The odds have gone up tremendously. ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2018, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-resignation-pool/789168/256 "2018-07-18T00:14:09Z")
> [@Evil\_Economist](#): > > The mandate was designed so that for most people it would be more expensive to pay the mandate then to simply get insurance, so this guy could (probably) have gotten insurance for less than he paid in penalties, and as bonus he would have had insurance. Even if insurance had been more than the penalty, it’s generally better to have insurance than not to have it. I agree with your general points, though am skeptical that an American could be paying only $58 per month for health insurance that would actually provide reasonable coverage. At that price the co-pay for doctor visits, for example, would be something like $500 per visit, wouldn’t it? ---
**Author:** ![Locrian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/locrian/32/14146_2.png) [@Locrian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Locrian)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2018, 1:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-resignation-pool/789168/257 "2018-07-18T01:27:38Z")
Zero chance of resignation. It wouldn’t satisfy his Lord Putin and he’d have to rely on milquetoast Pence for Pardons. With all the evidence we’ve had against him since 1992 and now, he’ll still win the GOP nomination for 2020. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2018, 3:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-resignation-pool/789168/258 "2018-07-18T03:58:36Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > …The odds have gone up tremendously. You might even say they’re huuuuuuge. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2018, 10:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-resignation-pool/789168/259 "2018-07-18T10:17:15Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > I blew off this thread when it started because it was obviously ridiculous. Trump relishes shoving his victory in everyones’ faces far too much to ever resign. That’s true, but if he’s ever able to take some opportunity that makes the winning the presidency look like sloppy seconds, of course he’ll do that in a heartbeat. I can’t imagine what that would be, but you know he’d do it. Apart from that, I couldn’t see what would force a resignation other than a total implosion for causes I’ve already described, and it seems like he’s living on borrowed time. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2018, 12:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-resignation-pool/789168/260 "2018-07-18T12:42:58Z")
The Helsinki Fiasco not only increases the odds of resignation/impeachment, it also increases the odds of a primary challenge in 2020. Republicans have their tax cuts, they have their deregulation, they have their right wing justices, they don’t need Donald for shit. One of their number can freely run against him and it seems to me that at least one will. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-resignation-pool/789168.md?page=12) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-resignation-pool/789168.md?page=14)