# The U.S. gets the bomb...a year early **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [July 8, 2005, 4:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-u-s-gets-the-bomb-a-year-early/311562 "2005-07-08T04:44:22Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 15\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![newcrasher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/b3f665/32.png) [@newcrasher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/newcrasher)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2005, 8:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-u-s-gets-the-bomb-a-year-early/311562/41 "2005-07-11T20:26:44Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > Remember, at the time nobody thought of nukes as anything other than really powerful bombs - differing from regular explosives in magnitude, not in their essential nature. Even the guys who designed them? :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2005, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-u-s-gets-the-bomb-a-year-early/311562/42 "2005-07-11T20:32:33Z")
> [@newcrasher](#): > > Even the guys who designed them? :dubious: The guys who designed them wanted to bomb Germany and weren’t so hot on the idea whe the target was Japan. ---
**Author:** ![rwjefferson](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/a6a055/32.png) [@rwjefferson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rwjefferson)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2005, 9:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-u-s-gets-the-bomb-a-year-early/311562/43 "2005-07-11T21:19:36Z")
> [@](#): > > President Roosevelt and Prime Minister Winston Churchill agreed to concentrate on [Germany first](http://www.u-s-history.com/pages/h1661.html), and then Japan. They considered Germany the greater and closer enemy. Peace Only through Liberty rwjefferson ---
**Author:** ![bonzer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/45deac/32.png) [@bonzer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bonzer)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2005, 10:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-u-s-gets-the-bomb-a-year-early/311562/44 "2005-07-11T22:11:37Z")
> [@](#): > > President Roosevelt and Prime Minister Winston Churchill agreed to concentrate on Germany first, and then Japan. They considered Germany the greater and closer enemy. In general terms, they undoubtedly did. What’s more relevant to the OP is that [the agreement between them](http://www.atomicarchive.com/Docs/ManhattanProject/TubeAlloys.shtml) at Hyde Park in September 1944 was that the atomic bomb, when it became available, would be preferentally used on Japan: > [@](#): > > The matter should continue to be regarded as of the utmost secrecy; but when a “bomb” is finally available, it might perhaps, after mature consideration, be used against the Japanese, who should be warned that this bombardment will be repeated until they surrender. FWIW, I’m really not convinced that the reasoning behind this agreement was racist (though certainly many of those involved were racist against the Japanese). Nor is this evidence that, if the threat of a German atomic bomb had become evident at this stage in 1944 (in the event it didn’t), the Allies wouldn’t have used any available atomic weapon against Germany first. [I’ll pedantically note that this Hyde Park memo seems to have had a minimal effect on the decision process in 1945, since Roosevelt’s copy appears to have been misplaced and only to have come to the attention of the rest of the US admistration relatively late in the developments that led to Hiroshima. But it is still very relevant evidence as to the thinking of Roosevelt and Churchill in the autumn of 1944.] ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2005, 10:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-u-s-gets-the-bomb-a-year-early/311562/45 "2005-07-11T22:23:56Z")
Truman on the Bomb. [http://www.trumanlibrary.org/whistlestop/study\_collections/bomb/large/index.php](http://www.trumanlibrary.org/whistlestop/study_collections/bomb/large/index.php) First, he is sure he wants to use it on a dual-purpose target. Homes and factories, both. Then… after they hear what it really does… > [@](#): > > We met at 11 A.M. today. That is Stalin, Churchill, and the U.S. President. But I had a most important session with Lord Mountbatten and General Marshall before that. We have discovered the most terrible bomb in the history of the world. It may be the fire distruction [destruction] prophesied in the Euphrates Valley Era, after Noah and his fabulous Ark. Anyway we think we have found the way to cause a disintegration of the atom. An experiment in the New Mexican desert was startling–to put it mildly. Thirteen pounds of the explosive caused the complete disintegration of a steel tower 60 feet high, created a crater 6 feet deep and 1200 feet in diameter, knocked over a steel tower 1/2 mile away and knocked men down 10,000 yards away. The explosion was visible for more than 200 miles and audible for 40 miles and more. > > This weapon is to be used against Japan between now and August 10th. I have told the Sec. of War, Mr. Stimson to use it so that military objectives and soldiers and sailors are the target and not women and children. Even if the world for the common welfare cannot drop this terrible bomb on the old Capitol or the new. > > He and I are in accord. The target will be a purely military one and we will issue a warning statement asking the Japs to surrender and save lives. I’m sure they will not do that, but we will have given them the chance. It is certainly a good thing for the world that Hitler’s crowd or Stalin’s did not discover this atomic bomb. It seems to be the most terrible thing ever discovered, but it can be made the most useful. Later on, what looks like a later version of the Yalta conference. Mr. Truman does not like the commies at all. [http://www.trumanlibrary.org/whistlestop/study\_collections/bomb/large/documents/fulltext.php?fulltextid=16](http://www.trumanlibrary.org/whistlestop/study_collections/bomb/large/documents/fulltext.php?fulltextid=16) The Trinity explosion, described. [http://www.trumanlibrary.org/whistlestop/study\_collections/bomb/large/documents/index.php?documentdate=1946-12-12&documentid=25&studycollectionid=abomb&pagenumber=1](http://www.trumanlibrary.org/whistlestop/study_collections/bomb/large/documents/index.php?documentdate=1946-12-12&documentid=25&studycollectionid=abomb&pagenumber=1) Truman defending the decision, calling the Japanese savages, and estimating 250,000 american lives were saved. From these, and other documents, on the site, I have to conclude that _before_ Trinity, it was viewed as a very big bomb. Afterwards, it was viewed as… more than that. From the decisions of target, I remain doubtful Berlin would have been the point of impact. Perhaps Dresden would have been nuked, though. Anyone got a rough analysis of Germany’s status ca '44? ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2005, 10:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-u-s-gets-the-bomb-a-year-early/311562/46 "2005-07-11T22:30:58Z")
I’m not sure if ‘racist’ is the right word. Suffice it to say that, to an American of the time, a German is understandable. He will surrender, he knows the rules of war. A Japanese soldier acts in a different manner entirely, and it is hard to understand why. (Yes, I’m familiar with how they obeyed the Geneva convention better than the Russians in the Russo-Japanese war. I am trying to understand the point of view of a man sixty years ago) This had to affect their thinking, in some manner. It should not be ignored, nor should it be stamped with the simple word ‘racism’. That creates a cartoon drawing of the truth. I simply submit that the justification needed for nuking Japan was lower than that of nuking Germany, and that this part of it should not be ignored. Or, of course, overblown. ---
**Author:** ![Ranchoth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ranchoth/32/1066_2.png) [@Ranchoth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ranchoth)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2005, 3:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-u-s-gets-the-bomb-a-year-early/311562/47 "2005-07-12T03:06:59Z")
> [@William V.](#): > > Peenemunde is also a good targeting suggestion - weren’t the V1s and V2s pounding Britain around that time? FDR might want to oblige his pal Winston by taking out the source of all those rockets. Good thought—and a quick aside, if I may…would Von Braun and his staff been spending a lot of time at Peenemunde itself around then? > [@E-Sabbath](#): > > I don’t think we _would_ bomb Berlin, for the same reason we didn’t nuke Tokyo: We need someone to negotiate _with_, after we prove our total superiority. Another reason we didn’t nuke Tokyo: we’d already heavily firebombed it (killing 100,000+). So, by that token we probably wouldn’t have nuked Hamburg, either. > [@E-Sabbath](#): > > It was possible to intern Japanese and Chinese-Americans. But not German-Americans, despite the presence of the Bund. Actually—you might already know this, so please forgive me bringing this up if you do—we _did_ intern some Germans. (Wikipedia says “tens of thousands of Italians and Germans, most of whom were foreign nationals or otherwise seen as subversive enemy aliens.” It didn’t give a breakdown of exactly how many were aliens, how many were citizens, how many were native-born citizens, how many Bund members we interned, etc.) And I’ll freely admit that this wasn’t quite the same as rounding up _all_ the German-Americans in the United States for ethnicity alone. ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2005, 3:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-u-s-gets-the-bomb-a-year-early/311562/48 "2005-07-12T03:21:41Z")
> [@Ranchoth](#): > > Good thought—and a quick aside, if I may…would Von Braun and his staff been spending a lot of time at Peenemunde itself around then? Mmm. We did want to brain-drain them, and the V-weapons weren’t… useful, really. Terror weapons, but not much more. Don’t know. Good choice, though. > [@](#): > > Another reason we didn’t nuke Tokyo: we’d already heavily firebombed it (killing 100,000+). So, by that token we probably wouldn’t have nuked Hamburg, either. Sorry, I didn’t quote the exact line. Somewhere on the Truman page it specifically says “We’re not going to use it on the capital of Japan.” I decided that Berlin would be out by the same reasoning. The page is really worth reading. Here we go. [http://www.trumanlibrary.org/whistlestop/study\_collections/bomb/large/documents/fulltext.php?fulltextid=15](http://www.trumanlibrary.org/whistlestop/study_collections/bomb/large/documents/fulltext.php?fulltextid=15) > [@Truman](#): > > This weapon is to be used against Japan between now and August 10th. I have told the Sec. of War, Mr. Stimson to use it so that military objectives and soldiers and sailors are the target and not women and children. Even if the world for the common welfare cannot drop this terrible bomb on the old Capitol or the new. > > He and I are in accord. The target will be a purely military one and we will issue a warning statement asking the Japs to surrender and save lives. > [@](#): > > Actually—you might already know this, so please forgive me bringing this up if you do—we _did_ intern some Germans. (Wikipedia says “tens of thousands of Italians and Germans, most of whom were foreign nationals or otherwise seen as subversive enemy aliens.” It didn’t give a breakdown of exactly how many were aliens, how many were citizens, how many were native-born citizens, how many Bund members we interned, etc.) And I’ll freely admit that this wasn’t quite the same as rounding up _all_ the German-Americans in the United States for ethnicity alone. Yep, not quite the same thing. Tens of thousands versus, well, all of them unto the third generation. Big difference. Even if the numbers were similar. ---
**Author:** ![bonzer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/45deac/32.png) [@bonzer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bonzer)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2005, 12:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-u-s-gets-the-bomb-a-year-early/311562/49 "2005-07-12T12:06:20Z")
> [@Ranchoth](#): > > Good thought—and a quick aside, if I may…would Von Braun and his staff been spending a lot of time at Peenemunde itself around then? They’d have been there most of the time; it remained von Braun’s main place of work until the facility was evacuated in February 1945, in the face of the Soviet advances. However, while arguably of some symbolic use, nuking Peenemunde in 1944 would have had little to no effect on V1 or V2 production. The base had after all been targeted and heavily bombed on multiple occasions in 1943, causing extensive damage. The result was that by mid-1944 the production facilities had all been dispersed to other sites, most famously the underground factories in the Mittelwerk. Peenemunde was kept as the main research centre on the projects, but that role was less significant as they moved into actual production and that was underway by D-Day. Offhand, I’m fairly sure that Allied intelligence knew virtually nothing about the whereabouts of the production facilities until much later. ---
**Author:** ![SlyFrog](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a3d4f5/32.png) [@SlyFrog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlyFrog)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2005, 2:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-u-s-gets-the-bomb-a-year-early/311562/50 "2005-07-12T14:07:31Z")
I think we need to avoid rewriting history here as well. The Japanese did have a different culture. They were more stubborn, and inclined to fight until the death. There were no German soldiers surfacing in the Bavarian mountains in 1974, having held out because they received “orders” to fight to the last man. Germans surrendered at much higher rate than the Japanese. I do not believe (at least in the West, which is what we were concerned with) that you saw the, “100,000 casualties, 878 prisoners” types of tallies that you did with the Japanese. The Japanese were prepared to defend the home islands with every man, woman, and child. There were some half-baked peace initiatives through the Soviets, but nowhere near the total surrender that was demanded. Finally, with respect to Germany, the D-Day invasion had already occurred, and it occurred on a continent that was much more spread out and harder for one nation to defend. To attack Japan, “D-Day” would have been an assault against an island, that happened to be the nation we were at war with. A much more difficult proposition. I remember reading somewhere that politicians and soliders at the time were talking about the subjugation of Japan as something that would take generations. They may have been wrong, but that was the theory. Remember, they had just gotten done fighting in Okinawa, to damn near the last man, with families throwing themselves over cliffs rather than surrender. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2005, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-u-s-gets-the-bomb-a-year-early/311562/51 "2005-07-12T17:24:38Z")
> [@](#): > > In general terms, they undoubtedly did. What’s more relevant to the OP is that the agreement between them at Hyde Park in September 1944 was that the atomic bomb, when it became available, would be preferentally used on Japan: In September of 1944, the allies mistakenly believed the Germans were on the verge of surrender. It was expected that the war in Europe would be over in a few weeks. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2005, 5:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-u-s-gets-the-bomb-a-year-early/311562/52 "2005-07-12T17:33:59Z")
One thing I’ve heard is that the scientists had a pretty good idea how big the explosion would be but underestimated the amount of radiation. Because of this, they figured that anybody who would have been killed by radiation would already be killed by the initial blast. They also failed to appreciate the lingering effects of the radiation. There were proposals to drop an atomic bomb on the invasion site in Japan a few hours before the American troops landed. It was felt this would destroy most of the defending forces without endangering the incoming troops. ---
**Author:** ![bonzer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/45deac/32.png) [@bonzer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bonzer)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2005, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-u-s-gets-the-bomb-a-year-early/311562/53 "2005-07-13T00:12:41Z")
> [@Little Nemo](#): > > In September of 1944, the allies mistakenly believed the Germans were on the verge of surrender. It was expected that the war in Europe would be over in a few weeks. To be exact, the estimate presented at the Quebec meeting, a few days before the Hyde Park agreement was signed, was that the war against Germany would be concluded within ten weeks - by about December 1st or earlier. Even if Roosevelt and Churchill were swayed by this prediction, there’s the complication that by the time their Hyde Park conversation took place on the 19th it may have been obvious to them that Market Garden was going badly. > [@](#): > > One thing I’ve heard is that the scientists had a pretty good idea how big the explosion would be but underestimated the amount of radiation. Because of this, they figured that anybody who would have been killed by radiation would already be killed by the initial blast. They also failed to appreciate the lingering effects of the radiation. As I put it in [this old Comments thread](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=208032), the radiation effects were “_fairly_ well understood” at Los Alamos prior to use. ---
**Author:** ![zega](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/eada6e/32.png) [@zega](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zega)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2005, 4:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-u-s-gets-the-bomb-a-year-early/311562/54 "2005-07-13T04:06:01Z")
> [@bonzer](#): > > As I put it in [this old Comments thread](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=208032), the radiation effects were “_fairly_ well understood” at Los Alamos prior to use. Not sure what you’re getting at, but as you said in your comment, “what wasn’t well understood were the medical effects of the exposure.” Which is really the whole point of course. After all, we’re not interested in radiation as an arbitrary thing in a nuclear explosion, but in how it affects people. ---
**Author:** ![bonzer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/45deac/32.png) [@bonzer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bonzer)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2005, 12:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-u-s-gets-the-bomb-a-year-early/311562/55 "2005-07-13T12:05:09Z")
My point was that the _amount_ of radiation - in fact, the various different sources of exposure involved - was reasonably well predicted and those involved were aware that this would have horrible effects. What could also be estimated was what the immediate effects of such radiation would be in terms of death from burns. However, what was less well understood was exactly what other effects these large sudden doses of radiation would have on humans. The suggestion that anybody liable to die from radiation would have been killed in the blast _was_ made by American officials, but after the fact. (It’s mentioned, but not footnoted and the officials aren’t named, on p439 of Robert Norris’s _Racing for the Bomb_, Steerforth, 2002.) This was during the public controversy, discussed by Cecil in [the column](http://www.straightdope.com/columns/030829.html) that led to that Comments thread, in September 1945 about whether people would continue to die from radiation left in the bombed cities. The military was talking a lot of nonsense to the press at the time - though they were right that there was minimal residual radiation - and it’s not obvious that the suggestion derives from any pre-attack prediction. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-u-s-gets-the-bomb-a-year-early/311562.md?page=2)