# The Unraveling - How Obama’s Syria policy fell apart **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [January 4, 2014, 9:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-unraveling-how-obama-s-syria-policy-fell-apart/677867 "2014-01-04T09:36:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2014, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-unraveling-how-obama-s-syria-policy-fell-apart/677867/101 "2014-01-05T17:13:34Z")
OK, so what is the optimal outcome that Obama has failed to deliver? Assad flees to wherever, his regime capitulates and the rebel forces, which include some groups “affiliated with Al Queda” (whatever the hell _that_ means…) a: take over b: immediately move to Civil War season 2, \*Breaking Worse \* OR Obama supplies aid and assistance to those rebel groups that are clearly not “affiliated” with Al Queda, they wipe out that subset and then go on to topple Assad OR Obama does that and the rebel alliance is so weakened Assad wipes them out, because they derive so much of their aid and support from Sunni sources. Do we prefer the grossly distasteful option that Assad remains in power but stability (if that is the word) is maintained, sorta kinda? Those of you who insist that Obama has failed to meet your goals, well, what _are_ those goals? Keeping in mind that Sunni and Shia Moslems dancing around a maypole singing the praises of the USA and then rushing to throw themselves at the feet of Benjamin Netanyahu is most probably not a realistic option… ---
**Author:** ![Grumman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/43a26b/32.png) [@Grumman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grumman)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2014, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-unraveling-how-obama-s-syria-policy-fell-apart/677867/102 "2014-01-05T17:43:36Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > OK, so what is the optimal outcome that Obama has failed to deliver? The outcome Obama did deliver was to supply aid and assistance to those groups affiliated with Al Qaeda. That was not his intent, but that is what he accomplished, by supplying the unaffiliated rebels, but not enough to stop anyone stealing the supplies. ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2014, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-unraveling-how-obama-s-syria-policy-fell-apart/677867/103 "2014-01-05T17:46:27Z")
> [@Grumman](#): > > The outcome Obama did deliver was to supply aid and assistance to those groups affiliated with Al Qaeda. That was not his intent, but that is what he accomplished, by supplying the unaffiliated rebels, but not enough to stop anyone stealing the supplies. How would you have handled it/prevented it? ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2014, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-unraveling-how-obama-s-syria-policy-fell-apart/677867/104 "2014-01-05T18:34:18Z")
He could have told those unaffiliated rebels that if Assad was coming to kill them, they should let him do it, rather than accept help from anyone who might be affiliated with Al Queda. Yeah. That’ll work. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2014, 6:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-unraveling-how-obama-s-syria-policy-fell-apart/677867/105 "2014-01-05T18:56:48Z")
> [@BrightNShiny](#): > > Once military action is underway, the President has wide latitude to determine the whether or not to expand the mission. That’s simply inherent in his C-in-C power, and numerous Presidents have expanded missions in this manner. Cites, please. ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2014, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-unraveling-how-obama-s-syria-policy-fell-apart/677867/106 "2014-01-05T18:57:41Z")
All jokes aside, I really am curious what better options those with opposing opinion would offer. I suppose not getting involved at all, except to condemn the regime publicly and encourage economic sanctions, is one such option. It does beg the question whether that would have been sufficient enough to bring Russia to action. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2014, 7:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-unraveling-how-obama-s-syria-policy-fell-apart/677867/107 "2014-01-05T19:15:30Z")
Putin doing what Obama wanted him to do only underscores Obama’s utter failure to get Putin to do what he wanted him to do. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2014, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-unraveling-how-obama-s-syria-policy-fell-apart/677867/108 "2014-01-05T19:48:36Z")
As I said above, the current situation is optimal. I guess some Obama haters think some little teak could have installed an American loving democracy. Or at least grasping at that straw. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2014, 11:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-unraveling-how-obama-s-syria-policy-fell-apart/677867/109 "2014-01-05T23:04:33Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > Sigh – yet another assertion that doesn’t fit in with anyone else’s view of reality. [Majority of the House leaning no on Syria resolution.](http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/09/06/momentum-moving-strongly-against-syria-resolution-in-congress/) The same article shows that only 25 House members had anonuced support for the resoltuion, while 145 were undecided, and a majority leaning or announced noes. Plus, only 23 senators were leaning toward authorizing war, while 43 were announced or leaning not to. “No compelling evidence…” yeah, right. Ravenman counts undecideds and leans-no as evidence. Sure it was uphill, but have uphill battles ever been won? > [@](#): > > The largest group of lawmakers remains undecided, including a majority of the Senate and the House. That could create an opportunity for the president to persuade them in a string of six interviews with TV network anchors Monday and a televised address to the nation Tuesday. The Senate could vote as early as Wednesday. > [Uphill battle for Obama: Where Congress stands on Syria](http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2013/09/08/usa-today-network-survey-of-congress-on-syria-as-obama-lobbies-for-support/2781739/) The day after this poll was released Putin immediately jumped on Kerry’s offer - Obama did not yet address the nation or meet with members of Congress to change minds - So the whole situation changed… we shall never know. That is what I mean by no compelling evidence. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2014, 11:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-unraveling-how-obama-s-syria-policy-fell-apart/677867/110 "2014-01-05T23:44:04Z")
> [@NotfooledbyW](#): > > Ravenman counts undecideds and leans-no as evidence. Sure it was uphill, but have uphill battles ever been won? You didn’t read the cite, did you? Undecideds were counted as undecided. There were 263 noes or leans no. That IS evidence. > [@](#): > > The day after this poll was released Putin immediately jumped on Kerry’s offer - Obama did not yet address the nation or meet with members of Congress to change minds - So the whole situation changed… we shall never know. That is what I mean by no compelling evidence. First, are you confusing the word “compelling” with the word “conclusive?” Second, if I showed you a poll that showed Chris Christie beating Hillary Clinton by a margin of 60% to 6%, would you say that there was “no convincing evidence” that Hillary was headed to defeat? ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2014, 12:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-unraveling-how-obama-s-syria-policy-fell-apart/677867/111 "2014-01-06T00:07:02Z")
Let’s not forget that the more Obama talked about the air strikes, the less popular they became. I can’t see any reason to think that if he made a few more speeches that would change anything. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2014, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-unraveling-how-obama-s-syria-policy-fell-apart/677867/112 "2014-01-06T01:45:48Z")
For God’s sake. Obama was obviously saying “if I bomb, it’s on you too, Republicans.” He put himself in a solid position.either he bombs the shit out of Syria, which satisfies hawks while not taking full blame from the doves or he gets Syria to give up chemical weapons which makes everyone happy. I can’t see how anyone could think he messed up without being naive or blindly partisan. ---
**Author:** ![SeldomSeen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/7ba0ec/32.png) [@SeldomSeen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SeldomSeen)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2014, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-unraveling-how-obama-s-syria-policy-fell-apart/677867/113 "2014-01-06T02:03:05Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > … I can’t see how anyone could think he messed up without being naive or blindly partisan. You said a mouthful there, Carnalk. SS ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2014, 7:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-unraveling-how-obama-s-syria-policy-fell-apart/677867/114 "2014-01-06T07:04:16Z")
There weren’t any really good moves, the moves he made worked out, yes, but that can’t really be put down to shrewd assessment alone. Suppose it were possible in, say, a game of poker that the most sensible move to a rational analysis is to draw one card to an inside straight. That isn’t a smart move, even a mathtard like me knows the odds are two to one against. But maybe its the least dumb move, when there aren’t any smart ones. I’m sure he was pleased when Putin jumped on his offer so quickly, then right away was thinking “Why is this KGB vampire so eager to help the well-intentioned? That can’t be good, because _he_ isn’t…”. Maybe Vlad the Impaler wants to be seen as an international grownup, get some dignity. What I’m getting at is that this isn’t a plan that worked, any one of fifty people in the world could have totally screwed it, and half of those had reasons why they might. You can’t plan when there are that many variables, and all of them crucial. So I can’t really credit him too much with brilliant strategery, he was lucky. Still, hard to be pissed at him for it. Well, hard for me. Some people seem to manage it pretty handily. ---
**Author:** ![Inbred\_Mm\_domesticus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/aca169/32.png) [@Inbred\_Mm\_domesticus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Inbred_Mm_domesticus)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2014, 7:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-unraveling-how-obama-s-syria-policy-fell-apart/677867/115 "2014-01-06T07:19:25Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > As I said above, the current situation is optimal. I guess some Obama haters think some little teak could have installed an American loving democracy. Or at least grasping at that straw. Personally I wanted them to have their chance at democracy. I don’t condition my desire for others to live with what I view as a basic human right on whether they’ll love my country and be our bestest buddies. I voted for Obama both times. I’m not a hater by any means. I think he is showing a streak of bad leadership on many problems our country faces and I cannot blame a lack of Republican cooperation for his failures in all the cases that have brought Obama into my disfavor. In Syria, I think he failed to influence the conflict in a manner favorable to the USA or our allies in the region. It’s indisputable that his strategy failed and the benefit of the article posted by the OP is to list all of the failures. ---
**Author:** ![Grumman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/43a26b/32.png) [@Grumman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grumman)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2014, 7:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-unraveling-how-obama-s-syria-policy-fell-apart/677867/116 "2014-01-06T07:21:04Z")
> [@QuickSilver](#): > > How would you have handled it/prevented it? - I would send humanitarian aid, including NBC gear. - If I wasn’t going to give the FSA sufficient arms to have a significant effect on their ability to win the civil war, I would not give them arms. And frankly, after Libya I would not trust the FSA to be deserving of arms. - I would have done the prep work for a retaliatory strike before declaring chemical attack a “red line”, not after. If that prep work fell through, I would not make the declaration. I would _like_ to use airstrikes to hold individuals personally responsible for any use of chemical weapons against civilians, such that every link in their chain of command knew that their personal survival might rest on them refusing this illegal order, but I would not promise that until I knew America was capable and willing to do so. - America is not Syria’s babysitter, and in the absence of some consensus between it and our allies I do not see any moral obligation to go behind their backs to provide military aid to the rebels. ---
**Author:** ![Grumman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/43a26b/32.png) [@Grumman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grumman)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2014, 7:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-unraveling-how-obama-s-syria-policy-fell-apart/677867/117 "2014-01-06T07:24:51Z")
> [@Inbred\_Mm\_domesticus](#): > > Personally I wanted them to have their chance at democracy. I don’t condition my desire for others to live with what I view as a basic human right on whether they’ll love my country and be our bestest buddies. For me, that is only enough to warrant non-interference. If they want to create an anti-American democracy they’re welcome to, but they’re going to do it without our help. ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2014, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-unraveling-how-obama-s-syria-policy-fell-apart/677867/118 "2014-01-06T16:43:43Z")
> [@Grumman](#): > > - I would send humanitarian aid, including NBC gear. Agreed. I think the US is doing so, as is much of the world. > [@Grumman](#): > > - If I wasn’t going to give the FSA sufficient arms to have a significant effect on their ability to win the civil war, I would not give them arms. And frankly, after Libya I would not trust the FSA to be deserving of arms. Agreed. Trying to target the “right” group of rebels has always been problematic in the region and there is little reason to believe that the right group now will remain the right group next year. It may have been a mistake to provide arms but I do see a political advantage to doing so, however briefly. The US can now honestly and officially say that they tried to help, but it back-fired. I think it’s a mistake to assume this administration didn’t consider the fact that it could (likely would) go wrong. But the token gesture has political importance to those in the region (exceptionally few to be sure) that remain friendly towards the US. > [@Grumman](#): > > - I would have done the prep work for a retaliatory strike before declaring chemical attack a “red line”, not after. If that prep work fell through, I would not make the declaration. I would _like_ to use airstrikes to hold individuals personally responsible for any use of chemical weapons against civilians, such that every link in their chain of command knew that their personal survival might rest on them refusing this illegal order, but I would not promise that until I knew America was capable and willing to do so. What do you mean by “prep work”, exactly? Do you mean identify each and every commander of the Assad army who controls CW’s and keep track of them in a chaotic and changing civil war zone? I think you over-estimate the ability of the US military and intelligence complex. Most people do and that often works to the advantage of the US. They are arguably among the best in the world, but they are far from omnitient or omnipotent. I think the “targeted” drone strikes in Pakistan and Iraq have illustrated as much. > [@Grumman](#): > > - America is not Syria’s babysitter, and in the absence of some consensus between it and our allies I do not see any moral obligation to go behind their backs to provide military aid to the rebels. If you mean that the US should stay out of it altogether, then that’s certainly a viable argument/alternative. But I submit it’s an entirely different topic of discussion. ---
**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2014, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-unraveling-how-obama-s-syria-policy-fell-apart/677867/119 "2014-01-06T17:21:36Z")
So what if our misguided support for the rebels brings a fiercely anti-American regime to power in Syria? Now we have Lebanon under radical Islam, and Iraq likely to follow same. This could be really inconvenient…maybe we ought to just stay out of the whole mess? ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2014, 5:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-unraveling-how-obama-s-syria-policy-fell-apart/677867/120 "2014-01-06T17:37:47Z")
> [@ralph124c](#): > > So what if our misguided support for the rebels brings a fiercely anti-American regime to power in Syria? Now we have Lebanon under radical Islam, and Iraq likely to follow same. This could be really inconvenient…maybe we ought to just stay out of the whole mess? And if we stay out of the whole mess, people like the OP will declare Obama a failure. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-unraveling-how-obama-s-syria-policy-fell-apart/677867.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-unraveling-how-obama-s-syria-policy-fell-apart/677867.md?page=7)