Disability cost $136B in 2013. It appears that it will run out of funds in 2016
All of these outlays appear to be significantly higher than education at the federal level, Mr. Nylock.
I am not advocating elimination of any of these programs, but the info I have turned up so far seems to reinforce my position that the federal government is backing into long term unemployment funding, rather than proactively encouraging productive use of human capital.
Good question! The problem is, with depression, the less you do… the worse it gets. Conversely, the more you do, the better it gets. This current state of depression is better, I still take my medication, talk to my therapist, exercise twice a week, walk the dog every day. Try to not just lay in bed and watch TV all day, as I did in the past. So, I feel better than I would, but, even walking the dog is difficult. Actually that was two weeks ago. Now I’m a little better but still not back to full speed.
I work a couple hours a week as a janitor in a boxing gym. Two days a week, one hour a day. In exchange for gym dues and a locker fees (about $150). The gym owners son has depression so he understands. When I am feeling good he will give me paid work whenever he can. Once I get to the point that I can go to the gym four days a week I’ll start saving money to buy into a franchise for a cleaning company. Ironically, despite being highly intelligent I actually like cleaning. Also, don’t have any social stress of dealing with people.
The whole thing with Bipolar is how long can you remain stable. I’ve never been stable over a year. If I can put the cleaning company in my family’s name (I’d put up half the investment) and do it consistently for 3 years, I’d like to come off of disability. If I can’t handle it I would probably just work part time off the books somewhere.
Correct link for NPR article
It’s a legitimate flag to raise. I talk about this because if we collectively have it in our heads, we will find a solution for it. While it has been raised by the advocate of ludditism/traditionalism as a rule in the past, it shouldn’t be dismissed because of that. The issue’s been a constant need as our technological pace has quickened for the last 300 years.
It would be best if we started looking ahead and planning as best we could instead of sorta-kinda backing into a situation like we have for our recent history.
This has been bouncing around my brain, as well. An interesting (fictional) read that helped my drive some thought processes was the short story Mannaby Brian Mitchell. It certainly gives a full utopia and a full distopia as polar opposites for contrast, but I could see western society becoming some portion of the distopia simply because we fumble into what’s coming.
I think that the artificial partitions we have built on things need to come down, but I also know it’ll cause a huge upheaval in our social order and how the individual views themselves in context of that social order, so I suspect it won’t come easy.
I disagree. iPads/Tablets are excellent as primary interface/consumption devices. They are certainly powerful enough to do the work we need, but we’ve grown accustomed to a completely different method of technology utilization, which will take a lot of time to shift away from. They are certainly bad for some things, but isn’t that the same for all technology? Desktop computers are terrible for walking around with. Toasters are bad for refrigerating things.
A desktop/laptop computer certainly isn’t replaced, but I’ve seen tablets that get ‘real work’ done that a lot of people dismiss simply because they don’t adapt.
Robert, thanks for responding. It seems like you are managing your depression/ bipolar, and have hope and goals. Your future plans seems reasonable and attainable.
There are many days that I envy simple non thinking work, but for me, it’s not janitorial, it’s moving a pile of rocks from one location to another. I call it bobcat zen. Can’t talk to anyone, can’t answer phone, don’t need to think. Bliss.
I hope it does work for you, and that you can stand back and say “I did this!” And perhaps help someone else.
I also wish the government would provide education, training, and support while you transition to that, rather than penalize you for stepping out of the box they put you in.
Thank you
lol, for me it was sanding and buffing wood floors… I like construction work too, specifically remodeling, but it is expensive and very political to do it in NYC. I don’t know why their is not a safety net for people coming off of disability. I think maybe, because I make slightly less on disability than a 40 hour work week at minimum wage, it actually seems designed to keep people on disability. I mean, If I got half the disability check that I did, I’d be forced to go get some dull dead end job. But they give me just enough to avoid that. I think it is intentional, but, I could be wrong.
Fractional employment.
Basic wage.
Consumer revolt.
That is all.
So, John, what are you saying? Are you saying that we should not develop policies in response to social or economic change? Should government ignore globalization as it will as revert to some kind of equilibrium given enough time? Should government not respond if all the teamsters and teachers lose their jobs due to technological changes?
I agree that everything will work out in 50 years or so. People will find new ways to make themselves valuable and will trade their efforts for things they want. Capitalism rules. But I don’t think it is wise to ignore the effects of the changes we are seeing due to automation and globalization. The ratio of ROI of capital to labor cannot continue to rise without us having an “upcoming Worker’s revolution” as Fisha put it.
I really think that all the social turmoil we have seen world wide can be tied to this. The Arab spring, the Tea Party, Occupy Wall street. Take a look at the unemployment rate of young people in Arab countries and you will see the causes of their revolution. Call me crazy, but I really believe that much of the upheaval we are seeing around the world is due to economic conditions and the loss of hope for our younger generations.
Perhaps you are on to something, it is not something I have looked into in great depth. I always think that the only thing that happens when technology increases is that the amount of service sector jobs increase. Things like non-essential government jobs, people go to to school much longer instead of working that sort of thing - but that is really not based on much other than vague assumptions.
This is why all the sneering at non-vocational education that you hear these days is so bass-ackwards. It is vocational education that is churning out all the people (often talented, hard-working people) who are never going to get the job they have trained hard for, because there just are not, and are not going to be, enough such jobs to go around. They are going to be very frustrated and depressed when they do not get it, furthermore, because having that job is all their education has prepared them for.
Non-vocational education (both in terms of process and outcome), has the potential to be a large part of the solution to the problem of how to enable people not engaged (or only engaged part-time) in a traditional job or career to find meaning and purpose in their lives. We need more people studying art history, philosophy, poetry, history, etc, not fewer of them, and we need more stress put on pure science, and to stop pretending that every scientific discovery is only important or interesting because it may, possibly, eventually, lead to something of practical use, and from which a profit can be made.
Of course they are, by the blind watchmaker.
Can you go into detail as to why we need more art historians than we have now? I’m not trying to degrade that profession, but how have you determined that we don’t have enough of them? Are the existing art historians in great demand, commanding ridiculously high salaries so that the market is telling us there is a dearth of such people?
I’m with John Mace–society will figure it out on its own. According to this chart in ~1900 33% of total employment was in agriculture and now it’s less than 5%. If you had told that to someone in 1900 they would have expected massive unemployment, not near complete employment that we have today. Someone needs to explain how the future trends are different from past trends for me to consider it a grave situation.
Well agriculture jobs can migrate to urban manufacturing. What comes after that? And after that?
I need someone to explain to me what industries are going to be employing the masses or I’m going to be forced to consider it a potentially grave situation.
what does your chart have to say about all the factory jobs lost in the USA? what have they been replaced with? seriously, what have they been replaced with?
Wow, it’s like you went out of your way to completely miss the point–which is that the value of an academic discipline to society, or the marginal value to society of one more practitioner of that discipline, is not reflected or determined by the salary they command on the employment market.
Oh. How is it determined? By you?
Did you not notice that the poster I quoted specifically set the standard as to who would be able to get jobs? Are you going to give jobs to all the additional art historian majors that the poster thinks we need?
If anyone was able to predict which jobs will be most in demand 10 or 20 years hence, he’d make a killing in the stock market. I suggest anyone who thinks they can to invest in those future industries. Perhaps someone might want to invest in companies that are hiring all the art historians, but I think I’ll pass on that stock tip.
hmm… ok
that is the point, isn’t it? we don’t know what the future holds, not exactly. but in the past one job that involved physical labor was replaced by another job that involved physical labor, even if it was just pushing a button on a machine. so what happens when almost ALL the jobs that require physical activity are gone?
When is that going to be?
