Not at all. Trump was never intended to win in the first place, he took over the Republicans against the desires of the old leadership. No doubt there’s people who think they are the masterminds, but they’ll get sidelined or crushed the moment they try to go against the mob they’ve helped manufacture and enabled.
They are just the American version of the oligarchs who thought fascism would be profitable, until Putin started having them killed. If they ever get their wish Vance will just be forced out (or shot) and replaced by someone properly murderous and favored by the mob.
The Heritage Foundation is behind Project 2025. Trump is not. Who is really behind HF? Not the historic Big Names of mainstream Republicanism who are, as you say, totally history and now irrelevant.
You’re right there’ll be a battle royale between the HF crowd, the trump crime family, and whoever of this rum lot actually answer to Moscow / Putin.
My money is on HF’s people, not trump’s people. They’re turning into pumpkins as trump’s mind melts. Somebody else has (or soon will have) their hands on the real levers of Federal power.
If trump were age 65 and compos mentis I’d put a lot more credence towards your version of the future.
Project 2025 doesn’t really matter; what matters is the reactionary mob. It’s the mob that’s the driving force, the mob that ate the Republicans from the inside when they decided to pander to it for votes. If Heritage Foundation or Project 2025 goes against the mob, they will be shoved aside just like the old Republican leadership were. And if they actually succeed in fully transitioning the US to fascism, I expect they’ll be outright killed and the real fanatics take their place.
You assume it’ll take a massive civil war to rise up.
Rising up could look like massive labor unrest, or people refusing to vote guilty on grand juries and trial juries, or a handful of people assassinating Trump and his underlings. Or states and urban areas withholding tax revenue from the federal government. Those don’t require a massive domestic civil war.
Also, again, the military would probably not mindlessly support a fascist dictatorship the way the police would. States and urban areas would try to require their police to oppose the takeover.
And why would we think that? The idea that the military is noble and altruistic and will save us from our own authoritarianism keeps popping up, but there’s no reason to think it’s anything but a fantasy. The military is a right wing dominated organization, with a leadership full of Trump cronies; if Trump or some future dictator orders them to apply the jackboot to the American public, they will.
American culture is seriously weird about the military. Upon seeing someone in uniform or hearing that someone is in the military, people say “thank you for your service,” which they do NOT do with teachers, civil servants, or anyone else. United Airlines lets military people board planes before regular customers, which is bizarre. There a thousand tiny ways in which Americans are trained to the think that the military are basically Jesus, nobly sacrificing themselves for the rest of us. Of course they will save us!
Because about 40% of the military voted against Trump. Also the US does hold the military to a standard of professionalism, discipline and accountability that the police are not held to. Meaning they know when Trump is gone, they will face accountability for what they did. Soldiers know they can face severe punishment if they do something wrong, which is something the police know they don’t have to worry about.
By comparison, about 90% of cops voted for Trump and there is very little accountability, discipline or professionalism among police.
I don’t mindlessly worship the military. But my impression is the military is held to a higher standard of accountability and discipline than the police. The police will happily be out in the streets assaulting people to support a fascist takeover. but the military would be more divided and restrained IMO.
I don’t see the entire US military happily firing on US citizens to support a fascist takeover from a Putin lackey. Will certain soldiers happily do that? Yes, quite a few. But I don’t see the entire organization doing that the way the entire police force would support a fascist takeover. The military will be more like what happened in Syria where some soldiers and officers support the government and some join the resistance.
Right, as a former servicemember, I find it jarring and a little uncomfortable. I first noticed this for a brief time following the first Gulf War in 1991, then it died down for a decade, then returned after 9/11 and the never-ending GWOT.
Having said that, the police did fight the January 6th insurgents. As long as the police respond to commands from state and local politicians, and as long as they are threatened with being fired and imprisoned for supporting fascism, they would be more willing to resist fascism. In urban areas and blue states, even if the police ideologically agree with white supremacist fascism they may fight against them as long as the people who control their jobs and freedom from prosecution tell them to, the way they did on January 6th.
Combination of, first, overcompensation for guilt over Vietnam vets, to which, later, was deliberately added the propagandistic performative “support the troops” making it so questioning or opposing the 2002-today wars would result in an accusation of disrespect.
Back to the thread topic, IMHO, one reason America isn’t going to rise up is because there is a very narrow window for rising up. If a nation is still perceived as being rescue-able by normal democratic means and elections, the citizenry won’t rise up. And if a nation has become so tyrannical that it’s too dangerous to rise up, the citizenry won’t.
But it’s in that in-between - that a nation is tyrannical enough that it can’t be fixed with elections or lawsuits or any peaceful means, yet still not tyrannical enough that the citizenry are afraid for their lives if they stand up - that the rising-up would happen. That’s a really narrow tightrope.
And you need a decently large percentage of the citizenry to read those tea leave the same way at the same time so they all rise up more or less together.
Which usually means there needs to be some particular outrage committed by the regime during the critical window. Which outrage serves as the wake-up call to the bulk of the citizenry that this is the last chance for uprising before the gates slam shut for the remainder of your natural life at least.
The wise tyrant with an eye to the long term will try hard to slide past the critical area using small salami slices, not great leaps. Sleepwalk the public right into the prison.
Obviously our current toddler tyrant is not wise. The nameless folks behind him, and who will pick up when he leaves off? Hard to say. So far they’re following the Fascist playbook diligently and IMO the only way they fail is if trump dies very soon and the backlash then is severe.
The American colonists who declared independence in 1776 weren’t starving. The Southern States that rebelled in 1861 weren’t starving. I agree it’s hard to imagine millions of comfortable people starting a revolution, but it’s not unheard of.
But also, there’s the French Revolution, which was actually mostly peaceful the first few years, minus some key acts of mob violence in Paris. It actually started with their version of Parliament being called for the first time in centuries to solve a financial issue, then making its own rules instead of obeying royal orders, and eventually writing a new Constitution. Revolution, coups, etc. don’t necessarily require violence. Just the fear of it among the ancien regime.
But thirdly, the coup has already happened. The authoritarian misgovernment is already well underway. And, well, we hear bupkis from the masses. So it seems that you’re already correct, as things stand. The authoritarian leader is here, and the people yawn.
But will that remain the case if this goes on for years? If things get worse, as they inevitably will? I think a breaking point is out there, somewhere, but good luck predicting it in advance.