# The World Is On Fire and In Extreme Drought: When And Where WIll The Future Water Wars Be Fought? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [August 10, 2021, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-world-is-on-fire-and-in-extreme-drought-when-and-where-will-the-future-water-wars-be-fought/948398 "2021-08-10T19:45:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2021, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-world-is-on-fire-and-in-extreme-drought-when-and-where-will-the-future-water-wars-be-fought/948398/61 "2021-08-13T17:23:45Z")
> [@74westy](#): > > > [@Babale](#): > > > > > [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > > > > > The Iraq war cost several trillion dollars, if it was for oil we could’ve gotten more oil much more cheaply than by going to war in an area full of tribal fighting. > > > > I’d say that’s pretty good evidence for the idea that the Iraq war wasn’t really about oil, despite the popular meme. > > I’m not going to argue that the war was simply for oil but this argument doesn’t impress me. The trillions of dollars were not spent by the people who wanted the oil. They hardly spent anything. I would argue that it was not directly about Iraqi oil, but it was about strategic US dominance of the Middle East, which included the benefits of access to oil. I base this on a famous document published by the Project for a New American Century, a now-defunct super-hawkish right-wing think tank whose prominent members included – not coincidentally – Cheney, Rumsfeld, Paul Wolfowitz, and other senior figures in the Bush administration. The organization would have been better titled “Project for a New American Empire”. ---
**Author:** ![74westy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/74westy/32/3950_2.png) [@74westy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/74westy)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2021, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-world-is-on-fire-and-in-extreme-drought-when-and-where-will-the-future-water-wars-be-fought/948398/62 "2021-08-13T17:25:06Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > Project for a New American Century I remember them well. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2021, 5:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-world-is-on-fire-and-in-extreme-drought-when-and-where-will-the-future-water-wars-be-fought/948398/63 "2021-08-13T17:28:41Z")
And the expansion of America’s economic influence, the market economy, pro-privatization forces, etc. ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2021, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-world-is-on-fire-and-in-extreme-drought-when-and-where-will-the-future-water-wars-be-fought/948398/64 "2021-08-13T18:32:47Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > What about the cost/benefit analysis of war vs other ways to get water? The Iraq war cost several trillion dollars, if it was for oil we could’ve gotten more oil much more cheaply than by going to war in an area full of tribal fighting. I doubt that anyone thought it would end up costing that when they started the war. ---
**Author:** ![ralfy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ralfy/32/600_2.png) [@ralfy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralfy)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2021, 7:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-world-is-on-fire-and-in-extreme-drought-when-and-where-will-the-future-water-wars-be-fought/948398/65 "2021-08-14T07:34:46Z")
The thread is about the world, and so are my points, but the evidence you present refers to the U.S and the U.K. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2021, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-world-is-on-fire-and-in-extreme-drought-when-and-where-will-the-future-water-wars-be-fought/948398/66 "2021-08-14T14:02:27Z")
What an underwhelming reply when you referred to overpopulation as the cause, the point was what can be done. The reality is that for increases on population or production to be harmful you need **also** sucky governments. And that was the main point. The reply shows also that you did not read the cites, Europe is considered and China gets a lot of criticism ([and more recently did stop their gross meddling with air pollution data](https://www.newscientist.com/article/2275299-chinese-air-pollution-data-was-altered-statistical-analysis-suggests/) showing that pressure can improve the behavior of sucky governments), but the point stands, it depends a lot on what regulations a country follows, population is an issue, but as Hans Rosling could tell you, things can get better even when population increases, people do get strong signals like how expensive is to raise a kid in a place that just begins to report and charge for the real price to deal for that pollution. And reacts to progress by having less kids without the government forcing population control measures. [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/fTznEIZRkLg/hqdefault.jpg "Hans Rosling: Global population growth, box by box") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTznEIZRkLg) ---
**Author:** ![Precambrianmollusc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/precambrianmollusc/32/63_2.png) [@Precambrianmollusc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Precambrianmollusc)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2021, 6:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-world-is-on-fire-and-in-extreme-drought-when-and-where-will-the-future-water-wars-be-fought/948398/67 "2021-08-15T18:50:18Z")
FWIW natural gas power generators use 60-70 % less water than coal or oil generators as they are running gas turbines, not generating steam to drive a turbine ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2021, 3:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-world-is-on-fire-and-in-extreme-drought-when-and-where-will-the-future-water-wars-be-fought/948398/68 "2021-08-16T03:41:05Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > It would be sheer madness to pipe water out of the Great Lakes,… The cities that border them don’t pump from them?? or do you just mean to pump far away? ---
**Author:** ![Qadgop\_the\_Mercotan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/qadgop_the_mercotan/32/83_2.png) [@Qadgop\_the\_Mercotan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qadgop_the_Mercotan)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2021, 3:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-world-is-on-fire-and-in-extreme-drought-when-and-where-will-the-future-water-wars-be-fought/948398/69 "2021-08-16T15:47:23Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > The cities that border them don’t pump from them?? or do you just mean to pump far away? It is rare for great lakes water to be pumped outside of its drainage basin, and requires very special permission which is rarely granted. Parts of Waukesha WI have managed it by arguing that while their surface water flows to the Mississippi, their groundwater is still in the drainage basin. Certain communities in IL have managed it because before Chicago reversed the flow of the Chicago river, they were in the drainage basin. There are probably a few other exceptions but not many. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2021, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-world-is-on-fire-and-in-extreme-drought-when-and-where-will-the-future-water-wars-be-fought/948398/70 "2021-08-16T16:57:52Z")
It’s hard to predict future wars, but one thing I absolutely believe is that wealthier nations are going to start feeling relentless pressure from climate refugees. This, in turn, will have a profound impact on the domestic politics in these richer countries, and they will probably lead to nasty internal fighting between different factions. These conflicts will intensify as real scarcity (water shortages, crop failures, etc) becomes not just perceived, but real. ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2021, 1:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-world-is-on-fire-and-in-extreme-drought-when-and-where-will-the-future-water-wars-be-fought/948398/71 "2021-08-17T01:20:08Z")
I agree but it’s not “perceived” now. It’s already real. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2021, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-world-is-on-fire-and-in-extreme-drought-when-and-where-will-the-future-water-wars-be-fought/948398/72 "2021-08-17T01:24:26Z")
In some ways, yes. p.s. Good to see you posting again, FGIE. I’m aware of your story and am pulling for you. ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2021, 3:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-world-is-on-fire-and-in-extreme-drought-when-and-where-will-the-future-water-wars-be-fought/948398/73 "2021-08-17T03:24:50Z")
Hey thanks! I’m aware of my story too. 😀 I appreciate the kind words. I am, medically speaking, treading water. Still here. No ill effects. ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2021, 3:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-world-is-on-fire-and-in-extreme-drought-when-and-where-will-the-future-water-wars-be-fought/948398/74 "2021-08-17T03:26:28Z")
Colorado River Water shortage steps being put into effect, seems like it’s primarily AZ that’s the odd man out. So far anyway. ---
**Author:** ![Zakalwe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zakalwe/32/270_2.png) [@Zakalwe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zakalwe)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2021, 3:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-world-is-on-fire-and-in-extreme-drought-when-and-where-will-the-future-water-wars-be-fought/948398/75 "2021-08-17T03:40:13Z")
> [@SunUp](#): > > While there’s plenty of water (i.e. we can keep drawing down Lake Mead) there’s no impetus or money to take these steps. 5 days later: [https://www.axios.com/colorado-river-water-shortage-cuts-arizona-lake-mead-f139b4ff-43e5-493c-bea6-38b86ab801b1.html](https://www.axios.com/colorado-river-water-shortage-cuts-arizona-lake-mead-f139b4ff-43e5-493c-bea6-38b86ab801b1.html) The future is now, I guess. Darn it, **FoieGrasIsEvil**! I looked before I posted. ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2021, 1:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-world-is-on-fire-and-in-extreme-drought-when-and-where-will-the-future-water-wars-be-fought/948398/76 "2021-08-17T13:59:43Z")
Wouldn’t “dam it” have been more apropos? ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2021, 2:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-world-is-on-fire-and-in-extreme-drought-when-and-where-will-the-future-water-wars-be-fought/948398/77 "2021-08-17T14:07:59Z")
From the BBC just today: [https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210816-how-water-shortages-are-brewing-wars](https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210816-how-water-shortages-are-brewing-wars) ---
**Author:** ![am77494](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/d2c977/32.png) [@am77494](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/am77494)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2021, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-world-is-on-fire-and-in-extreme-drought-when-and-where-will-the-future-water-wars-be-fought/948398/78 "2021-08-17T15:31:13Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Okay, please fight my ignorance, but why can’t thermopower generation also run water on a recycled loop? They do run water in a closed recycle loop with a blowdown. But we need to understand somethings here. For example Efficiency of Power Plants : Traditional Nuclear = 33% , Traditional Coal = 40%, Natural gas combined cycle = 55 So what this means in effect is that when a Nuclear Plant makes 1000 MW of Electrical Power, it makes 2000 MW of lost heat. That’s a lot of heat to get rid of, and Power Plants are therefore located near rivers / lakes. A majority of the 2000MW is used to vaporize water into the air (cooling towers), but even then some warm water needs to be discharged back into the rivers / lakes. As water evaporates, it leaves behind minerals / corrosion products - this prevents running the water in a complete loop and a blowdown is needed. ---
**Author:** ![Gozu](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gozu/32/6615_2.png) [@Gozu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gozu)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2021, 2:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-world-is-on-fire-and-in-extreme-drought-when-and-where-will-the-future-water-wars-be-fought/948398/79 "2021-08-18T14:11:28Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > It’s hard to predict future wars, but one thing I absolutely believe is that wealthier nations are going to start feeling relentless pressure from climate refugees. This, in turn, will have a profound impact on the domestic politics in these richer countries, and they will probably lead to nasty internal fighting between different factions. These conflicts will intensify as real scarcity (water shortages, crop failures, etc) becomes not just perceived, but real. Unfortunately, fascism and civil war is more likely than graceful acceptance from rich nations, who know they caused this with their emissions (especially the USA) and owe those refugees a debt that now must be paid. Quite frankly, we/they need to work on a good refugee-to-citizen pipeline that helps them thrive in their new homes. It’s not like we don’t need the extra children to keep our schools full and help prop up social security for folks in the workforce today. And we must ensure those schools are not run by religious/supremacist nuts who question evolution or racism. It’s not easy but it’s easier than convincing middle class couples to suddenly have 3 children. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2021, 10:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-world-is-on-fire-and-in-extreme-drought-when-and-where-will-the-future-water-wars-be-fought/948398/80 "2021-08-18T22:30:32Z")
> **[Water Scarcity Clock](https://worldwater.io/)** > > The Water Scarcity Clock is an interactive webtool that visualizes how many people live in water scarcity around the world. This was created by World Data Lab in partnership with Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) and the... I don’t know how ‘official’ this map is but a glance at it shows what probably already knew, which is that swaths of the Middle East and parts of Mexico are increasingly water-stressed. Scarcity is going to cause conflict and some governments will collapse as a result, which is going to drive migration into Europe and North America. Governments that are already flirting with right wing authoritarianism will probably be shoved into that column within the next 10 years; governments that have been viewed as moderate will find their politics unrecognizably uncomfortable. All the while, more and more people will be suddenly forced to move to areas that are seen as resource abundant, putting sudden strains on their resources. This is likely to turn into a cycle that will spiral out of control. We’re moving into a very dark time period, I’m afraid. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-world-is-on-fire-and-in-extreme-drought-when-and-where-will-the-future-water-wars-be-fought/948398.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-world-is-on-fire-and-in-extreme-drought-when-and-where-will-the-future-water-wars-be-fought/948398.md?page=5)