# The X-Prize has been captured! Now what? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 4, 2004, 9:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-x-prize-has-been-captured-now-what/267534 "2004-10-04T21:19:02Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2004, 3:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-x-prize-has-been-captured-now-what/267534/21 "2004-10-05T03:41:42Z")
> [@David Simmons](#): > > Let me present – Ta Da! NORAD > [@Brutus](#): > > Also, [United States Air Force Space Command.](http://www.peterson.af.mil/hqafspc/) Of course. But I think NORAD and the USAF Space Command traditionally have been Watching the Skies for an all-out ICBM strike, or for a fellow superpower such as the former USSR fielding its own version of the “Star Wars” program – things which could **only** be done by a superpower. My point is that a new era of low-cost spaceflight has the same potential effect as the wide availability of low-cost assault weapons and RPGs – it opens the way to a new era of “assymetrical warfare” where even minor powers and underground organizations might, conceivably, be able to afford to get into the game. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2004, 3:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-x-prize-has-been-captured-now-what/267534/22 "2004-10-05T03:47:49Z")
I have to admit though, as far as his web site goes, he doesn’t talk about his next generation orbiter at all…so maybe he was just talking in that show. I can’t find a cite at all for his future space plans…if he even has any. ☹ Well, I still think it was a great and heroic achievement, and I think that venture capital will be available to people now that wasn’t before…venture capital TOO build a private orbiter. But thats just my WAG on this. -XT ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2004, 3:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-x-prize-has-been-captured-now-what/267534/23 "2004-10-05T03:55:09Z")
> [@](#): > > He showed both a mock up and the technical specs for it on The Learning Channel program last night. It will hold 7 passengers and be quite a bit larger. He didn’t go into the detail about the heat shield…I got the impression it would be a combination shield and ‘feather’ design like what they use for re-entry on SpaceShipOne. Are you SURE he was talking about an orbital ship? Because that sounds a lot like the suborbital ship he plans to build for Richard Branson. But I never saw it, so I could be wrong. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2004, 4:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-x-prize-has-been-captured-now-what/267534/24 "2004-10-05T04:00:20Z")
Well, he said on the show that the next step is to go orbital…then he showed the mock up and computer wire diagrams of a ship that he claims will hold 7 people. I might have it wrong too Sam, or he could have been letting his enthusiasm get the better of him (he was SO hyped…he actually cried at one point). I can’t find anything at all on hiw web site or FAQ about his plans for a next generation orbital ship…nada (not even anything on a sub orbital 7 passenger ship…or any other space craft for that matter). I can’t find any press releases or any mention of an orbital craft on google…nuffin. -XT ---
**Author:** ![Tuckerfan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/eada6e/32.png) [@Tuckerfan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tuckerfan)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2004, 4:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-x-prize-has-been-captured-now-what/267534/25 "2004-10-05T04:22:04Z")
I can’t find the site, but Rutan specifically talked about a plane the size of a 747 capable of going into orbit. I think that it was one of the Wired interviews he did, but I don’t have time to find the cite. Rutan’s _definately_ got the plans on the drawing board, and he’s got the gear as well. IAC, suborbit’s the perfect place to [space dive!](http://www.astronautix.com/craft/moose.htm) ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2004, 4:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-x-prize-has-been-captured-now-what/267534/26 "2004-10-05T04:23:13Z")
> [@CurtC](#): > > I can see that it’s exciting, but I can’t really see anything coming of this. First, this is just 100 km up, not nearly high enough for orbits. Let’s take for granted, for the moment, that orbital flight is next. Why? To take billionaires into space? Maybe they’ll get the price down so that mere millionaires can afford it. So what? It’s just high-tech bungee jumping. > > There is still a _vast_ difference between low Earth orbit and any kind of real exploration - LEO is just a couple hundred miles away, but interplanetary space is BIG! altitude has nothing to do with reaching orbit. It requires a great deal of speed to enter into one. What Ratan did, which is what the X-prize specified, is to reach a specific altitude. It was done ballistically straight up. I don’t mean to rain on Rutan’s parade because it was quite an achievement. It has nothing to do with the concept of orbiting. If he says he’s going to build an orbiting craft I would certainly bet money on his success. If he does it by selling seats to millionaires than Viva-Capitalism. ---
**Author:** ![Tuckerfan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/eada6e/32.png) [@Tuckerfan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tuckerfan)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2004, 4:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-x-prize-has-been-captured-now-what/267534/27 "2004-10-05T04:25:46Z")
[Here’s a cite which says he’s aiming for orbit.](http://www.flightinternational.com/fi_issue/is_display_free.asp?txtId=186036&Code=106) > [@](#): > > Speaking at a lecture organised by the Manx Festival of Aviation at the Royal Aeronautical Society in London, the aerospace designer detailed how such an orbital vehicle could be evolved from his existing three-man, suborbital 3,000kg (6,600lb) SpaceShipOne. The amount of spacecraft mass dedicated to fuel would be increased to achieve the greater altitude and speed required. > > “We’d have a small cramped cabin for the orbital flight and you’d be in it for a long time. You’d want to go to a hotel [because of that] and for orbital tourism you’d want an altitude of 130km,” says Rutan. Not the best cite I’ve seen, but it definately confirms that he’s aiming for it. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2004, 4:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-x-prize-has-been-captured-now-what/267534/28 "2004-10-05T04:44:39Z")
Oh, I know he’s aiming for orbit - I was just wondering about the five-year plan with the 7 passenger ship. But what he describes sounds more likely - a big craft with a tiny little cockpit. So it’s a transfer vehicle to get you to a hotel. Which begs the queston - how do you get the hotel up there? For that, you need something like a Shuttle, capable of carrying tens of thousands of pounds of payload. **CurtC** said: > [@](#): > > There is still a vast difference between low Earth orbit and any kind of real exploration - LEO is just a couple hundred miles away, but interplanetary space is BIG! You’re thinking about it wrong. It takes about half the speed to get to orbit as it does to get out of the solar system. As Heinlein said, “Once you’re in orbit, you’re halfway to anywhere”. It’s a BIG jump to get from where SS1 is today to orbit, but once you’re in orbit going to the moon or Mars isn’t that much harder. Look at Apollo - it needed a Saturn V to get to orbit, and from there it used a much smaller rocket to get it to the moon and back. ---
**Author:** ![Tuckerfan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/eada6e/32.png) [@Tuckerfan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tuckerfan)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2004, 5:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-x-prize-has-been-captured-now-what/267534/29 "2004-10-05T05:34:19Z")
> [@Sam Stone](#): > > Oh, I know he’s aiming for orbit - I was just wondering about the five-year plan with the 7 passenger ship. > > But what he describes sounds more likely - a big craft with a tiny little cockpit. So it’s a transfer vehicle to get you to a hotel. Which begs the queston - how do you get the hotel up there? For that, you need something like a Shuttle, capable of carrying tens of thousands of pounds of payload. [Not necessarily.](http://www.aviationnow.com/avnow/news/channel_awst_story.jsp?id=news%2F07054wna.xml) > [@](#): > > THE ORBITAL demonstrations and ground test hardware are aimed toward the launch of a man-tended commercial “Nautilus” module between 2008 and 2010. The watermelon-shaped Nautilus would weigh 20-25 tons and, once inflated in orbit, measure 45 X 22 ft. with 330 cu. meters of volume. This is larger than the 25 X 27-ft. tractor-tire shaped TransHab and substantially bigger than any individual ISS module. Mind you, this is the guy offering a [$50 million dollar prize for a civilian craft to get to orbit.](http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewnews.html?id=979) > [@](#): > > Company founder and millionaire Robert T. Bigelow told Aviation Week & Space Technology that he will announce as early as this week a new $50-million space launch contest called America’s Space Prize. > > The objective is to spur development of a low-cost commercial manned orbital vehicle capable of launching 5-7 astronauts at a time to Bigelow inflatable modules by the end of the decade. > > America’s Space Prize will be patterned somewhat after the X Prize that will go to the first team to demonstrate back-to-back suborbital flights. [And he’s not the only one eyeing inflatables.](http://www.newsreview.com/issues/sacto/2004-02-26/cover.asp) > [@](#): > > A gigantic, blue, nylon, V-shaped balloon crowded most of the hangar. It was composed of two tubes (Powell thinks of them as being like “giant hotdogs") joined at an angle. Each leg of the airship was 175 feet long and 35 feet in diameter. The balloon ship, which Powell calls the Ascender, was fully inflated with air but rested gently on the hangar floor. It dwarfed Powell as he strolled alongside and ran his hand against the smooth material. Nearby, taking up most of the space remaining in the hangar, was a long, V-shaped frame made of ultra-light carbon-composite rods. Before takeoff, this frame will be attached to the underside of the balloon, supporting the two battery-powered propellers that Powell designed himself for maneuvering the craft through the ultra-thin air of near-space. > > “It’s really just a big, delicate butterfly,” he said with some affection. A big delicate butterfly that will, if all goes well, soon head nose first through the Earth’s jet stream and then level out and hang stationary just above the Earth’s atmosphere, where the sky is dark and the Earth is round. > > The Air Force calls Powell’s airship the “Near Space Maneuvering Vehicle” (NSMV) and is keenly interested in how his design can help the U.S. government to spy on its enemies. JP Aerospace designed and built the Ascender with about $300,000 in Pentagon money. That’s on top of the $30,000 a month the Air Force was paying in rent for the hangar, all funded by the Air Force Space Battlelab program. The Ascender is being considered for a subset of that program, called “Combat Constant Stare.” If I have time tomorrow, I’ll look for the cite which quotes Rutan as saying that his craft will be able to put something like 300 tons in orbit. ---
**Author:** ![Declan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ecae2f/32.png) [@Declan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Declan)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2004, 6:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-x-prize-has-been-captured-now-what/267534/30 "2004-10-05T06:34:45Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > My point is that a new era of low-cost spaceflight has the same potential effect as the wide availability of low-cost assault weapons and RPGs – it opens the way to a new era of “assymetrical warfare” where even minor powers and underground organizations might, conceivably, be able to afford to get into the game. Spacwarcom has been aware of it for the past five years. If you look around the spacecommand website , you will find about 3 or 4 essays regarding aerospace defense in the next twenty years. I would imagine in the next several years , the plans for the next generation , all military space station will be released , along with requirements for space supremacy orbiter or bus. One thought is that two of the three orbiters are coming to the end of their service lives , atlantis being the exception, can be lofted into orbit , and extend their service lives by another ten or so years. The military is scaleable , its just an evolution in warfare. Declan ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2004, 6:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-x-prize-has-been-captured-now-what/267534/31 "2004-10-05T06:37:17Z")
300 tons? Is that a typo? That’s ten times more than the Shuttle can haul. In fact, that’s almost three times the weight of the entire orbiter (not the external tank, SRB’s and fuel, but the Orbiter itself). If Rutan can build a spacecraft that can haul 300 tons to orbit for, say, 1/10 of the cost per pound of a shuttle flight, then we can go anywhere. The Moon, Mars, you name it. We can build space hotels. NASA would buy a fleet of these things for hauling its cargo. The international space station would be rejuvenated, and you could triple its size and restore its crew complement. In fact, doing the math… A single shuttle flight costs about $600 million. Let’s say that Rutan can launch one of his behemoths for $60 million. That would drop the cost of a pound of payload to orbit to $100. A 200 lb person could fly to orbit for $20,000. The Cassini probe to Saturn has an all-up weight including fuel of about 25,000 lbs. Double it to give it fuel for the ride out, and it’d be 50,000 lbs. You could launch 12 of them on one flight, for less than half the cost of the pathfinder mission to Mars. We could saturate the solar system with probes for next to nothing. ---
**Author:** ![Grey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b782af/32.png) [@Grey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grey)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2004, 1:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-x-prize-has-been-captured-now-what/267534/32 "2004-10-05T13:06:07Z")
If you think about it, what Rutan has done is bigger than simply tourism. By changing the path of SS1 you can ballistically travel across the planet. What type of premium price do you think FedEx would charge for that type of intercontinental same day service? ---
**Author:** ![RandomLetters](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8edcca/32.png) [@RandomLetters](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RandomLetters)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2004, 2:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-x-prize-has-been-captured-now-what/267534/33 "2004-10-05T14:31:35Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Nor did anyone at the time of the Wright Bros’ first flight predict airplanes that would be used to saturation-bomb major cities, nor helicopters that would be used for strafing and rocket launching. Sorry to be such a downer – and in fact I’m very much a spaceflight fanatic – Well, it wasn’t _too_ long before people figured out you could saturate bomb cities - to quote H. G. Wells > [@](#): > > In 1908, H. G. Wells envisioned war involving great fleets of airships: “Upon anything below,” he wrote, “they could rain explosives in the most deadly fashion, forts and ships and cities lay at their mercy. . ---
**Author:** ![Grey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b782af/32.png) [@Grey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grey)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2004, 3:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-x-prize-has-been-captured-now-what/267534/34 "2004-10-05T15:34:57Z")
To be fair he was refering to blimps and other airships, not to actual aircraft. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2004, 3:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-x-prize-has-been-captured-now-what/267534/35 "2004-10-05T15:47:45Z")
> [@Grey](#): > > If you think about it, what Rutan has done is bigger than simply tourism. By changing the path of SS1 you can ballistically travel across the planet. What type of premium price do you think FedEx would charge for that type of intercontinental same day service? That depends . . . FedEx can already, I believe, ship something to the other side of the planet within two days. Cutting it down to one day might be crossing a point of diminishing returns. I don’t think they’ll be interested unless shipping by SS1 is almost as cheap as shipping by jet airplane – and it won’t be, for a while yet. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2004, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-x-prize-has-been-captured-now-what/267534/36 "2004-10-05T15:48:46Z")
> [@Grey](#): > > To be fair he was refering to blimps and other airships, not to actual aircraft. Lighter-than-air craft are still aircraft, aren’t they? ---
**Author:** ![Grey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b782af/32.png) [@Grey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grey)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2004, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-x-prize-has-been-captured-now-what/267534/37 "2004-10-05T16:04:54Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > That depends . . . FedEx can already, I believe, ship something to the other side of the planet within two days. Cutting it down to one day might be crossing a point of diminishing returns. I don’t think they’ll be interested unless shipping by SS1 is almost as cheap as shipping by jet airplane – and it won’t be, for a while yet. Which is basically the argument used by the postal service when FedEx first appeared. “Why would anyone want a package there tomorrow when it can get there in a work week?” I’d say for short lived biological agents, organ transfers, impatient people with too much money, grant submissions that managed to get forgotten until the day they were due… 🙂 > [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Lighter-than-air craft are still aircraft, aren’t they? Well yes, but airships have nothing in common with aircraft aside from the fact they both move through it. You were talking about the Wright brothers not the Montgolfier brothers. ---
**Author:** ![CurtC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ce73a5/32.png) [@CurtC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CurtC)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2004, 5:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-x-prize-has-been-captured-now-what/267534/38 "2004-10-05T17:00:59Z")
> [@xtisme](#): > > I guess at Kitty Hawk people said ‘well, not to be cynical, but I think its just a high priced amusement rid for the ultra-rich…’. At least with the first plane, you could look at it and envision people getting from town to town by plane. With SS1, where are they going exactly? LEO? Why? To repair LEO satellites (that’s the only practical use I can think of)? Someone has mentioned getting to the ISS. Well, if it’s still there. And this gets back to the question of why the ISS is there in the first place (hint: there is no science of any import done on the ISS). The whole manned space program is a dead-end. Unmanned space vehicles are the key to exploration. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2004, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-x-prize-has-been-captured-now-what/267534/39 "2004-10-05T17:13:14Z")
> [@CurtC](#): > > At least with the first plane, you could look at it and envision people getting from town to town by plane. With SS1, where are they going exactly? LEO? Why? To repair LEO satellites (that’s the only practical use I can think of)? Huh? The original Wright Flyer went, what? 100 yards? No way in hell it was going ‘from town to town’. No chance. You had to use your IMAGINATION to ENVISION and incrimental upgrade that would create a plane that COULD fly ‘from town to town’. Yet you are unwilling (or unable) to invision an upgraded version of SpaceShipOne that could fly into orbit, act as a ferry for passengers and materials, and do it cheaply enough to allow for the expolitation of space. Why is that? > [@CurtC](#): > > Someone has mentioned getting to the ISS. Well, if it’s still there. And this gets back to the question of why the ISS is there in the first place (hint: there is no science of any import done on the ISS). The whole manned space program is a dead-end. Unmanned space vehicles are the key to exploration. I’m not a big fan of the ISS…I think we could have spent our money more wisely. Thats kind of the whole point of the privatization of space. Governments WASTE money and resources. Space is no exception…hell it proves the axiom. Any space program created by a committee is going to be a complete cluster fuck…like the shuttle, like the ISS. Or its going to cost an arm and a leg and probably several other vital body parts to boot. I totally disagree with you that ‘manned space program is a dead-end’ and that only ‘unmanned space vehicles are the key to exploration’. I think that BOTH are necessary…I do agree that GOVERNMENT manned space program is probably a dead end, and that the Government should, by various means, encourage the PRIVATE development of space. Sort of the same way the Government encouraged the creation of a rail industry and network in the US in the previous century, and how they encouraged the development of the airline industry in this one. Hopefully they can do so in a way that doesn’t screw up space the same way the government has screwed up rail and air (probably a forlorn hope based on past performance)…but even if it does, at least we’ll have SOME system. -XT ---
**Author:** ![David\_Simmons](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9de053/32.png) [@David\_Simmons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/David_Simmons)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2004, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-x-prize-has-been-captured-now-what/267534/40 "2004-10-05T18:38:34Z")
> [@CurtC](#): > > With SS1, where are they going exactly? LEO? Why? To repair LEO satellites (that’s the only practical use I can think of)? Surely you don’t think a program is of no value just because you and I can’t think of a use within a short time of hearing about it. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-x-prize-has-been-captured-now-what/267534.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-x-prize-has-been-captured-now-what/267534.md?page=3)