# The Zogby Poll in Iraq, August 2003
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-zogby-poll-in-iraq-august-2003/203519
**Category:** Great Debates
**Created:** [September 24, 2003, 11:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-zogby-poll-in-iraq-august-2003/203519 "2003-09-24T11:43:37Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 1
### Author:  [@PatriotX](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatriotX)
#### Post date: [September 24, 2003, 11:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-zogby-poll-in-iraq-august-2003/203519/1 "2003-09-24T11:43:37Z")
[http://www.taemag.com/docLib/20030909\_iraqpollcrosstabs.pdf](http://www.taemag.com/docLib/20030909_iraqpollcrosstabs.pdf)
[http://www.taemag.com/docLib/20030905\_IraqpollFrequencies.pdf](http://www.taemag.com/docLib/20030905_IraqpollFrequencies.pdf)
[http://www.taemag.com/issues/articleID.17697/article\_detail.asp](http://www.taemag.com/issues/articleID.17697/article_detail.asp)
---
### Author:  [@DMC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMC)
#### Post date: [September 24, 2003, 11:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-zogby-poll-in-iraq-august-2003/203519/2 "2003-09-24T11:56:25Z")
Is the debate behind door number 1, door number 2, or door number 3?
---
### Author:  [@T.Mehr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/T.Mehr)
#### Post date: [September 24, 2003, 12:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-zogby-poll-in-iraq-august-2003/203519/3 "2003-09-24T12:21:32Z")
So, door 1 and 2 give you the raw data to a rather long article behind door 3…
Maybe **SimonX** you could sum it up a bit?
Cause actually it’s a poll on what Iraqis think/want. Thats a good question if you are wondering why the shoot at you.
---
### Author:  [@Rashak\_Mani](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rashak_Mani)
#### Post date: [September 24, 2003, 12:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-zogby-poll-in-iraq-august-2003/203519/4 "2003-09-24T12:26:09Z")
Is Zogby a well known group or institute in polls ?
---
### Author:  [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)
#### Post date: [September 24, 2003, 2:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-zogby-poll-in-iraq-august-2003/203519/5 "2003-09-24T14:10:55Z")
> [@](#):
>
> \*Originally posted by Rashak Mani \*
> \*\*Is Zogby a well known group or institute in polls ? \*\*
Zogby International is a pretty famous polling company. Here’s their website, if you’re interested.
[http://www.zogby.com/](http://www.zogby.com/)
---
### Author:  [@PatriotX](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatriotX)
#### Post date: [September 24, 2003, 2:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-zogby-poll-in-iraq-august-2003/203519/6 "2003-09-24T14:57:05Z")
Selected poll results are being bandied about somewhat recklessly.
> [@](#):
>
> \*Originally posted by \*
> \*\*
> As for the issue of life in Iraq “not improving”, why not listen to what the Iraqis had to say about it in the recent Zogby poll:
>
> > [@](#):
> >
> > The results show that the Iraqi public is more sensible, stable and moderate than commonly portrayed, and that Iraq is not so fanatical, or resentful of the U.S., after all.• Iraqis are optimistic. Seven out of 10 say they expect their country and their personal lives will be better five years from now. On both fronts, 32% say things will become much better.
> >
> > * * *
> >
> > • Asked to name one country they would most like Iraq to model its new government on from five possibilities – neighboring, Baathist Syria; neighbor and Islamic monarchy Saudi Arabia; neighbor and Islamist republic Iran; Arab lodestar Egypt; or the U.S. – the most popular model by far was the U.S. The U.S. was preferred as a model by 37% of Iraqis selecting from those five – more than Syria, Iran and Egypt put together.
>
> [http://209.157.64.200/focus/f-news/979368/posts](http://209.157.64.200/focus/f-news/979368/posts) \*\*
I expect these numbers from the WSJ editorial will come back in several forms, so I thought that the raw data should be presented for the purposes of debates.
The conclusions being drawn from the numbers presented in the editorial are not always supported by the actual data. Some have said that things must be going well if Iraqis think that things will be better in five years. Obviously, the fact that Iraqi’s think things will be better in five years means that they think things will be better in five years. It doesn’t necessarily speak about their estimation of the current state of affairs, (other than they think that the present is worse than their expectations of the future).
---
### Author:  [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)
#### Post date: [September 24, 2003, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-zogby-poll-in-iraq-august-2003/203519/7 "2003-09-24T19:32:10Z")
Now, how exactly did they do this poll in 2002, when Saddam’s totalitarian regime was still running the country?
---
### Author:  [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)
#### Post date: [September 24, 2003, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-zogby-poll-in-iraq-august-2003/203519/8 "2003-09-24T20:00:29Z")
They must have called a “random” sample of Iraqis who had working phone service.
---
### Author:  [@PatriotX](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatriotX)
#### Post date: [September 24, 2003, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-zogby-poll-in-iraq-august-2003/203519/9 "2003-09-24T20:02:24Z")
> [@](#):
>
> \*Originally posted by Lemur866 \*
> \*\*Now, how exactly did they do this poll in 2002, when Saddam’s totalitarian regime was still running the country? \*\*
Where did you get the idea that the poll was conducted in 2002? My understanding was that it was last month.
---
### Author:  [@CyberPundit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CyberPundit)
#### Post date: [September 24, 2003, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-zogby-poll-in-iraq-august-2003/203519/10 "2003-09-24T20:02:45Z")
The WSJ interpretation of the results is rather odd to put it mildly. As noted above the 5 years question isn’t really a measure of Iraqi support for the present state of affairs.
In addition:
“Evidence of the comparative gentleness of this war can be seen in our poll. Less than 30% of our sample of Iraqis knew or heard of anyone killed in the spring fighting. Meanwhile, fully half knew some family member, neighbor or friend who had been killed by Iraqi security forces during the years Saddam held power.”
So what? The war lasted a few weeks while Saddam’s rule lasted 25 years. In light of that the 30-50 difference is surprisingly small not large. The war may or may not have been “comparitively gentle” but this poll doesn’t provide evidence of it.
They claim that 37% of Iraqis prefer the US model. According to the OP’s link it’s 23%. The US is still the single largest country but considered that you have three Arab countries and Iran to split the vote I don’t think this means much. The total for the three Arab countries is 37%. Saudi Arabia at 17% is just a little behind the US. The US isn’t the “most popular model by far” as claimed by the WSJ?
They don’t mention one of the more inconvenient answers: when asked about whether the US and UK should help ensure whether there is a fair government in Iraq as opposed to leaving to the Iraqis alone 60% choose the Iraqis alone.
They try to brush away the 50% who think the US will hurt Iraq over 5 years by saying it’s “understandable” because of the war. But before the war the neo-cons were saying the Iraqis would be grateful to the US for “liberating” them. So how come it’s “understandable” that 5 months after the war there is still a lot of suspicion about the US?
```
Given the difficulties of polling in a place like Iraq you have to take this poll with a pinch of salt but even if you take it seriously it doesn't justify the rosy WSJ editorial.
```
---
### Author:  [@Fang](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fang)
#### Post date: [September 24, 2003, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-zogby-poll-in-iraq-august-2003/203519/11 "2003-09-24T20:55:43Z")
> [@](#):
>
> \*Originally posted by SimonX \*
> \*\*Where did you get the idea that the poll was conducted in 2002? My understanding was that it was last month. \*\*
I’m going to go way out on a limb here and suggest it might possibly have been your title. Just a guess though.
**I** understood it was a typo. 😃
---
### Author:  [@Rashak\_Mani](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rashak_Mani)
#### Post date: [September 24, 2003, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-zogby-poll-in-iraq-august-2003/203519/12 "2003-09-24T21:35:05Z")
Just to add something… the comparisons of the poll are USA vs Saddam or USA vs Arab countries. Not exactly hard competition is it ? If the USA were doing so splendid a liberation these numbers should be way better.
---
### Author:  [@PatriotX](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatriotX)
#### Post date: [September 25, 2003, 1:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-zogby-poll-in-iraq-august-2003/203519/13 "2003-09-25T01:06:13Z")
> [@](#):
>
> \*Originally posted by Fang \*
> \*\*I’m going to go way out on a limb here and suggest it might possibly have been your title. \*\*
I knew that. :o
---
### Author:  [@MEBuckner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MEBuckner)
#### Post date: [September 27, 2003, 4:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-zogby-poll-in-iraq-august-2003/203519/14 "2003-09-27T04:20:52Z")
**Moderator’s Note:** Corrected typo regarding date in thread title.
---
### Author:  [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)
#### Post date: [September 27, 2003, 4:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-zogby-poll-in-iraq-august-2003/203519/15 "2003-09-27T04:27:00Z")
I wouldn’t expect them to respond with complete candor to some guy on the street who purports to be conducting a survey. If I had spent thirty odd years hiding my opinions on pain of Godonlyknowswhat…its not a habit I’d chuck aside the minute somebody shouts “Olly-olly-oxen-free”. And considering the competing strains of citizenry - Kurdish, Sunni, Sh’ite, etc. - I wonder if there really _is_ such a thing as “Iraqi opinion”.
---
### Author:  [@Scylla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scylla)
#### Post date: [September 27, 2003, 4:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-zogby-poll-in-iraq-august-2003/203519/16 "2003-09-27T04:33:48Z")
> [@](#):
>
> \*Originally posted by elucidator \*
> \*\*I wonder if there really _is_ such a thing as “Iraqi opinion”. \*\*
The ones shooting at our soldiers seem to have a pretty strong opinion.
According to a recent Zogby poll, four out of five Islamic terrorists are not in favor of the US intervention in Iraq.
---
### Author:  [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)
#### Post date: [September 27, 2003, 4:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-zogby-poll-in-iraq-august-2003/203519/17 "2003-09-27T04:38:27Z")
By an odd coincidence, that corresponds roughly with the same proportion of the entire bloody world! Unless, of course, dat ol’ debbil libruhl media done been supressing scenes of all those thousands of people marching in the worlds capitals chanting “Yippie Skippy USA! Who else you gonna liberate today! Hooray!”
---
### Author:  [@Rashak\_Mani](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rashak_Mani)
#### Post date: [September 27, 2003, 1:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-zogby-poll-in-iraq-august-2003/203519/18 "2003-09-27T13:30:03Z")
elucidator said something interesting… these poor iraqi have probably never answered a poll before or know what one is !! Wow… that must have been wierd for them. How many might have thought it was a trick of sorts and not sure what side they should “support” 🙂
---
### Author:  [@PatriotX](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatriotX)
#### Post date: [September 27, 2003, 1:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-zogby-poll-in-iraq-august-2003/203519/19 "2003-09-27T13:40:13Z")
Zogby said that they used people w/ Eastern European experience to help them figure out how to elicit truthful responses. Whether they got truthful responses or not I can’t know. But, they did consider the issue and make efforts to deal with the problem.
---
### Author:  [@PatriotX](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatriotX)
#### Post date: [September 27, 2003, 1:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-zogby-poll-in-iraq-august-2003/203519/20 "2003-09-27T13:51:42Z")
There’re at least two other Iraqi polls out. One was sponsored by a Brit paper called the Spectator. I’m unfamiliar w/ this publication. I’m sure that a UK doper will be along to help us out re the paper’s rep. The other is by good ol’ Gallup. Gallup hasn’t been so kind as to release their data. They’ve released bit for publication,;but, the whole shebang isn’t available xpt for by Gallup subscription. The subscription explicitly prohibits reposting such info. Interstingly enough, when the questions were nearly the same, the poll results were nearly the same. I guess that that speaks well of the polling techniques. The SPectator poll and the Gallup poll are exclusively of Baghdadis. The Zogby poll avoided polling Iraqis for some reason. I haven’t examined the Zogby poll of 600 people to see if the cross section they used is roughly representative of the population of Iraq. The Gallup poll is of nearly 1200 Baghdadis, (IIRC). Spectator’s YouGov polled 800 Baghdadis.
Here’s a link _about_ the Spectator’s YOuGov poll:[http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/iraq/2003/07/iraq-030717-voa04.htm](http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/iraq/2003/07/iraq-030717-voa04.htm)
here’s a link _to_ the YouGov poll:
[http://www.spectator.co.uk/pdfs/iraqi\_poll.pdf](http://www.spectator.co.uk/pdfs/iraqi_poll.pdf)