# There was 'Community spread' of covid-19 in France as early as December 2019 **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [May 5, 2020, 1:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-was-community-spread-of-covid-19-in-france-as-early-as-december-2019/853176 "2020-05-05T13:37:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Tigers2B1](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/9fc29f/32.png) [@Tigers2B1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tigers2B1)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2020, 1:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-was-community-spread-of-covid-19-in-france-as-early-as-december-2019/853176/1 "2020-05-05T13:37:25Z")
This person had not travelled to China or, to his knowledge, come in contact anyone who had. So apparently there was Community spread in France as early as December. > **[SARS-CoV-2 was already spreading in France in late December 2019](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924857920301643?via%3Dihub)** > > The COVID-19 epidemic is believed to have started in late January 2020 in France. Here we report a case of a patient hospitalised in December 2019 in … ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2020, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-was-community-spread-of-covid-19-in-france-as-early-as-december-2019/853176/2 "2020-05-05T14:53:54Z")
Yeah, we are beginning to see in many places that this was starting to spread at low intensity well before publicity arose. This propagation has a very long left-hand tail to the curve before the exponential climb kicks in visibly. Which is something that worries me about how people are reacting in some communities that have not yet seen high incidence, as if they think that if it’s not gotten so bad there by now, it’s not going to; or that it will burn itself out in the big cities before it makes it to them. ---
**Author:** ![Tigers2B1](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/9fc29f/32.png) [@Tigers2B1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tigers2B1)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2020, 3:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-was-community-spread-of-covid-19-in-france-as-early-as-december-2019/853176/3 "2020-05-05T15:13:05Z")
If that’s the case we’re missing the upward slope starting in December. It seems you have this late 2019 case and then it took a one month break before the next covid-19 case. Note the evidence suggests that this is community spread so he isn’t the first. ---
**Author:** ![lobotomyboy63](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lobotomyboy63/32/2900_2.png) [@lobotomyboy63](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lobotomyboy63)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2020, 3:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-was-community-spread-of-covid-19-in-france-as-early-as-december-2019/853176/4 "2020-05-05T15:18:52Z")
I posted in another thread about a situation that took place in November. Reasonably healthy man, not too old, gets sick with respiratory problems, doctors puzzled, it gets worse, he dies. Nobody was thinking coronavirus and maybe it was…maybe it wasn’t. Here’s an interesting thought: the man chose to become an organ donor. IIRC they took kidneys etc. Clearly the doctors knew he’d been sick but never knew what had made him sick and killed him. Anybody know what protocol they follow for organ donors under such circumstances? If someone with COVID19 dies today—and they already stipulated they want to be organ donors—do doctors harvest from them? ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2020, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-was-community-spread-of-covid-19-in-france-as-early-as-december-2019/853176/5 "2020-05-05T18:10:45Z")
Since this was before Dr. Li’s warning and before anyone in China realized they were dealing with a weird type of pneumonia, it seems that we were fucked regardless of what the CCP did. Considering that this flu season was a bad one, a thought I have seen expressed elsewhere is that…maybe this **is** the feared second wave and the “bad flu” season was the first wave. And maybe several countries missed that first wave and this is their first wave…this would explain why the effects seem so varied, with countries who should have had bad outbreaks being relatively unscathed. ---
**Author:** ![Novelty\_Bobble](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Novelty\_Bobble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Novelty_Bobble)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2020, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-was-community-spread-of-covid-19-in-france-as-early-as-december-2019/853176/6 "2020-05-05T19:30:43Z")
I know of several pretty bad bugs that swept our offices at the back end of last year that bore striking resemblance to the C19 symptoms. Of course, lots of bugs have a variety of similar symptoms but this one was remarkable by the length and violence of the coughing fits. Who knows? now that we know it was out and about in December at least I suspect various path labs will be returning to lots of previous cases to see if it tracks back even further. ---
**Author:** ![zimaane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/a3d4f5/32.png) [@zimaane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zimaane)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2020, 8:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-was-community-spread-of-covid-19-in-france-as-early-as-december-2019/853176/7 "2020-05-05T20:21:11Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > Since this was before Dr. Li’s warning and before anyone in China realized they were dealing with a weird type of pneumonia, it seems that we were fucked regardless of what the CCP did. > > Considering that this flu season was a bad one, a thought I have seen expressed elsewhere is that…maybe this **is** the feared second wave and the “bad flu” season was the first wave. And maybe several countries missed that first wave and this is their first wave…this would explain why the effects seem so varied, with countries who should have had bad outbreaks being relatively unscathed. It seems more likely that virus spread slowly in the early or mid January period (when a lot of people spend time at home anyways) until the first cases were detected later in the month. It is also possible (but probably unlikely0 that this outbreak died out in France and the late January cases were from a separate introduction. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2020, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-was-community-spread-of-covid-19-in-france-as-early-as-december-2019/853176/8 "2020-05-05T20:45:07Z")
> [@Tigers2B1](#): > > This person had not travelled to China or, to his knowledge, come in contact anyone who had. So apparently there was Community spread in France as early as December. > > [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924857920301643?via%3Dihub](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924857920301643?via%3Dihub) Is this finding going to hold up to scrutiny? Needs a lot of corroboration, doesn’t it? ---
**Author:** ![Tigers2B1](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/9fc29f/32.png) [@Tigers2B1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tigers2B1)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2020, 10:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-was-community-spread-of-covid-19-in-france-as-early-as-december-2019/853176/9 "2020-05-05T22:21:34Z")
> [@bordelond](#): > > Is this finding going to hold up to scrutiny? Needs a lot of corroboration, doesn’t it? If you’re asking about the positive test for covid-19 I believe the sample was tested three or four separate times all coming back positive. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2020, 12:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-was-community-spread-of-covid-19-in-france-as-early-as-december-2019/853176/10 "2020-05-06T00:09:54Z")
The article mentions that the man had contact with his child who had had an ILI illness preceding. I would think that the very next thing to do would be to test that individual for antibodies with a good quality test and if positive do the same with their close contacts to the best as is possible at this late date. Maybe that is being saved for a next publication! ---
**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2020, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-was-community-spread-of-covid-19-in-france-as-early-as-december-2019/853176/11 "2020-05-06T00:14:25Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > who had had an ILI illness preceding. For those wondering, like me, Influenza Like Illness (ILI) ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2020, 12:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-was-community-spread-of-covid-19-in-france-as-early-as-december-2019/853176/12 "2020-05-06T00:29:42Z")
(My bad. Sorry.) ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2020, 3:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-was-community-spread-of-covid-19-in-france-as-early-as-december-2019/853176/13 "2020-05-06T03:22:11Z")
Are scientists still sure it passed from animals to human in the 3rd week of November or could it have jumped to humans earlier? ---
**Author:** ![russian\_heel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f05b48/32.png) [@russian\_heel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/russian_heel)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2020, 6:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-was-community-spread-of-covid-19-in-france-as-early-as-december-2019/853176/14 "2020-05-06T06:02:30Z")
I’m skeptical of these reports because they are being misused by COVID deniers to claim that herd immunity has spread through the population already, which is doubtful considering the recent deaths. ---
**Author:** ![Melbourne](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b5e925/32.png) [@Melbourne](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Melbourne)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2020, 9:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-was-community-spread-of-covid-19-in-france-as-early-as-december-2019/853176/15 "2020-05-06T09:52:24Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > Considering that this flu season was a bad one, a thought I have seen expressed elsewhere is that…maybe this **is** the feared second wave and the “bad flu” season was the first wave. There was no C19 test in November, but there was a flu test. People who had bad respiratory disease in November where tested for flu, so the flu numbers reflect the number of people who actually had the flu. C19 was first identified in Wuhan as a respiratory disease that was “not flu”, because they had a big bump in “not flu” respiratory disease. We didn’t see that big “not flu” respiratory disease bump in France or in the USA until later. ---
**Author:** ![madsircool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madsircool/32/3432_2.png) [@madsircool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madsircool)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2020, 10:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-was-community-spread-of-covid-19-in-france-as-early-as-december-2019/853176/16 "2020-05-06T10:00:04Z")
> **[Scientists say a now-dominant strain of the coronavirus could be more...](https://news.yahoo.com/mutant-coronavirus-emerged-even-more-110046843.html)** > > A mutation in the novel coronavirus has led to a new strain viewed as more contagious than the virus that emerged from China, according to a new study. A mutation of the CoVid virus makes it more contagious and seems to have originated in Europe. > [@](#): > > Scientists have identified a new strain of the coronavirus that has become dominant worldwide and appears to be more contagious than the versions that spread in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a new study led by scientists at Los Alamos National Laboratory. > > The new strain appeared in February in Europe, migrated quickly to the East Coast of the United States and has been the dominant strain across the world since mid-March, the scientists wrote. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2020, 11:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-was-community-spread-of-covid-19-in-france-as-early-as-december-2019/853176/17 "2020-05-06T11:19:12Z")
> [@russian\_heel](#): > > I’m skeptical of these reports because they are being misused by COVID deniers to claim that herd immunity has spread through the population already, which is doubtful considering the recent deaths. Same. ---
**Author:** ![Novelty\_Bobble](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Novelty\_Bobble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Novelty_Bobble)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2020, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-was-community-spread-of-covid-19-in-france-as-early-as-december-2019/853176/18 "2020-05-06T18:26:49Z")
> [@russian\_heel](#): > > I’m skeptical of these reports because they are being misused by COVID deniers to claim that herd immunity has spread through the population already, which is doubtful considering the recent deaths. That seems a very strange view to take. The truth of the reports is completely independent of the way in which they are being used. There is no reason to doubt the report of December infections from France, you can consider that good evidence _and at the same time_ be critical of how the deniers (whatever they are) choose to interpret it. ---
**Author:** ![susan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/susan/32/17537_2.png) [@susan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/susan)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2020, 2:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-was-community-spread-of-covid-19-in-france-as-early-as-december-2019/853176/19 "2020-05-07T02:54:00Z")
We have retroactive isolated diagnoses of HIV from the 1950s, but it didn’t spread until many years later. ---
**Author:** ![MaverocK](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9de0a6/32.png) [@MaverocK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MaverocK)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2020, 12:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-was-community-spread-of-covid-19-in-france-as-early-as-december-2019/853176/20 "2020-05-08T00:24:22Z")
> [@susan](#): > > We have retroactive isolated diagnoses of HIV from the 1950s, but it didn’t spread until many years later. I read somewhere that the first case for HIV goes as far back as 1920s. I am too lazy to find where I read it but if you are interested, maybe you can google it. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-was-community-spread-of-covid-19-in-france-as-early-as-december-2019/853176.md?page=2)