# There Will Be A Manned Mission to Mars in My Lifetime **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [January 23, 2009, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-will-be-a-manned-mission-to-mars-in-my-lifetime/482674 "2009-01-23T18:07:08Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 19\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![Discordia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Discordia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Discordia)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2009, 7:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-will-be-a-manned-mission-to-mars-in-my-lifetime/482674/81 "2009-01-25T19:22:54Z")
> [@Xema](#): > > I disagree. The first Moon mission in 50 years would have enormous prestige. They could easily choose goals that would put them ahead of the US missions: more people on the surface at one time, longer stays, better science, a reusable base, etc. > > As noted above, Moon missions would be dramatically cheaper - and accomplished much sooner - than a Mars mission. It’s also worth noting that the chance of success would be much higher. I think any sensible observer would conclude that a Mars mission using current technology is a very risky thing - and that one way to lower the hideous cost is to accept more risk. How well would China’s interests be served by an extremely expensive failed Mars mission? It would have prestige, yes, but it wouldn’t one-up the USA, which is what I believe China ultimately want. I don’t think a “better” moon mission does either, though some kind of moon base is quite possible. I still think they’d shoot for Mars. I don’t think they care all that much about cost. They aren’t a democracy, remember. As for the more general theme of manned space missions: Assuming we don’t wipe ourselves out at some point, inevitably Earth will reach some kind of sustainable equilibrium. At this point I believe humanity would become…restless, and be quite willing to fund such things. It’s in our nature to explore, to be curious. That won’t go anywhere. This is most likely long after I’m dead however, sadly. ---
**Author:** ![levdrakon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/49beb7/32.png) [@levdrakon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/levdrakon)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2009, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-will-be-a-manned-mission-to-mars-in-my-lifetime/482674/82 "2009-01-25T21:08:40Z")
> [@Xema](#): > > There are plenty of example where developments in one field led to advances in others. For a simple example, surely you’d grant that a manned mission to Mars will benefit from advances in semiconductor technology developed for very different purposes. I’m sure a mission to Mars would benefit from future technology but then again we didn’t build 747s until we built the first gliders and biplanes. Someone had to build the first jet engine. I really don’t think we’re ever going to Mars if we wait until some random point in the future when we just _know_ how to get to Mars. > [@](#): > > I don’t see why sooner is necessarily better - why not wait a few hundred years? At the current state of space travel technology, the incredible cost would demand a strong worldwide consensus that a manned Mars mission is extremely important. From where do you see this coming? I dunno, the cost of things seems pretty relative these days. A trillion here, a trillion there. I’m pretty sure the money is there, if a government or two or three want it to be. > [@](#): > > This could be done on Earth (e.g. [Biosphere 2](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biosphere_2)) - no need to incur the expense of a space voyage to learn those lessons. Biosphere wasn’t a truly serious effort, and couldn’t really teach us that much about living on another planet. We learned a few lessons sure, but living in a greenhouse on earth is nothing like the moon or Mars. One thing about Biosphere though, we need to pick scientists who get along better. ---
**Author:** ![Xema](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/x/9de053/32.png) [@Xema](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Xema)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2009, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-will-be-a-manned-mission-to-mars-in-my-lifetime/482674/83 "2009-01-25T21:31:30Z")
> [@levdrakon](#): > > I really don’t think we’re ever going to Mars if we wait until some random point in the future when we just _know_ how to get to Mars. We already know (or at least we think we do) how to get to Mars. What we need - or need to wait for - is a closer approach between the cost & risk of doing so and the motivation. > [@](#): > > A trillion here, a trillion there. I’m pretty sure the money is there, if a government or two or three want it to be. Just so - you need to identify the things that might make those governments want to spend those trillions. Just now, a reason for doing so doesn’t seem apparent. > [@](#): > > Biosphere wasn’t a truly serious effort, and couldn’t really teach us that much about living on another planet. We learned a few lessons sure, but living in a greenhouse on earth is nothing like the moon or Mars. With care, it could be made similar. And it would surely be irresponsible to set off on the voyage without a very serious effort to examine the conditions expected on the way, and the ways in which people can successfully cope with these. ---
**Author:** ![levdrakon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/49beb7/32.png) [@levdrakon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/levdrakon)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2009, 1:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-will-be-a-manned-mission-to-mars-in-my-lifetime/482674/84 "2009-01-26T01:27:17Z")
> [@Xema](#): > > We already know (or at least we think we do) how to get to Mars. What we need - or need to wait for - is a closer approach between the cost & risk of doing so and the motivation. Well, we’re never going to do until we do it. As far as motivation goes, China already wants to do it, so it’s on the table. > [@](#): > > With care, it could be made similar. And it would surely be irresponsible to set off on the voyage without a very serious effort to examine the conditions expected on the way, and the ways in which people can successfully cope with these. We should probably prove we can do it on the moon first, for sure. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2009, 4:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-will-be-a-manned-mission-to-mars-in-my-lifetime/482674/85 "2009-01-26T04:05:00Z")
The astronauts and engineers of the Apollo program seemed to believe Mars would be next for a manned mission. Werner Von Braun suggested sending six ships so that they could come to each others assistance. Surely they had some plans to deal with radiation. ---
**Author:** ![VarlosZ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/d78d45/32.png) [@VarlosZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VarlosZ)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2009, 9:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-will-be-a-manned-mission-to-mars-in-my-lifetime/482674/86 "2009-01-26T09:58:45Z")
I’m all for the idea as space travel as means of ensuring the survival of humanity, but a trip to Mars within the next generation or two doesn’t really contribute to that goal. The technology that will get us to Mars has virtually nothing to do with the technology that may eventually get us to more useful parts of the universe. It would be like trying to move toward the technology necessary to sail across the Atlantic Ocean by perfecting the design of floating shoes: it’s a dead end. ---
**Author:** ![levdrakon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/49beb7/32.png) [@levdrakon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/levdrakon)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2009, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-will-be-a-manned-mission-to-mars-in-my-lifetime/482674/87 "2009-01-26T19:16:53Z")
What do you mean by “more useful parts of the universe?” I think our own solar system has plenty to keep us busy for quite some time. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2009, 8:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-will-be-a-manned-mission-to-mars-in-my-lifetime/482674/88 "2009-01-26T20:50:57Z")
> [@VarlosZ](#): > > I’m all for the idea as space travel as means of ensuring the survival of humanity, but a trip to Mars within the next generation or two doesn’t really contribute to that goal. Who are you to so say? Think SMART. Going to Mars is a Specific, Measurable, Achievable, and Realistic Target. ---
**Author:** ![VarlosZ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/d78d45/32.png) [@VarlosZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VarlosZ)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2009, 4:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-will-be-a-manned-mission-to-mars-in-my-lifetime/482674/89 "2009-01-27T04:40:05Z")
> [@levdrakon](#): > > What do you mean by “more useful parts of the universe?” > > I think our own solar system has plenty to keep us busy for quite some time. I mean “more useful” in the sense of places we might want to physically send actual humans. Sending men to the far reaches of our own solar system doesn’t really get us anything that sending unmanned missions does not. > [@Quartz](#): > > Who are you to so say? Think SMART. Going to Mars is a Specific, Measurable, Achievable, and Realistic Target. Sure, but it’s not Useful. ---
**Author:** ![elfkin477](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/a9a28c/32.png) [@elfkin477](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elfkin477)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2009, 4:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-will-be-a-manned-mission-to-mars-in-my-lifetime/482674/90 "2009-01-27T04:54:53Z")
No. Unless an alien species arrives and escorts so humans to mars, there will not be humans on mars during my lifetime. ---
**Author:** ![Picard\_Kills\_Kirk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/dec6dc/32.png) [@Picard\_Kills\_Kirk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Picard_Kills_Kirk)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2009, 5:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-will-be-a-manned-mission-to-mars-in-my-lifetime/482674/91 "2009-01-27T05:07:55Z")
Yes, in about three months when the set is done being built! 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2009, 7:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-will-be-a-manned-mission-to-mars-in-my-lifetime/482674/92 "2009-01-27T07:11:54Z")
> [@VarlosZ](#): > > I’m all for the idea as space travel as means of ensuring the survival of humanity, but a trip to Mars within the next generation or two doesn’t really contribute to that goal. The technology that will get us to Mars has virtually nothing to do with the technology that may eventually get us to more useful parts of the universe. It would be like trying to move toward the technology necessary to sail across the Atlantic Ocean by perfecting the design of floating shoes: it’s a dead end. Actually, you have a point - until we develop a better propulsion method, interplanetary travel may not be the best thing to work on. Instead, NASA should be investing its efforts in cheaper, more efficient ways of getting humans into orbit. The fact that we’re still using the Space Shuttle after 30 years is an abomination; by all rights, we should have been 3 generations past it by now. In other words, the government should figure out a way to make manned space travel profitable, and the private sector will take it from there. ---
**Author:** ![levdrakon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/49beb7/32.png) [@levdrakon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/levdrakon)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2009, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-will-be-a-manned-mission-to-mars-in-my-lifetime/482674/93 "2009-01-27T15:10:03Z")
> [@VarlosZ](#): > > I mean “more useful” in the sense of places we might want to physically send actual humans. Sending men to the far reaches of our own solar system doesn’t really get us anything that sending unmanned missions does not. Are you proposing we skip sending people to other planets in our solar system and get to work on sending people to other solar systems? First, if we can’t send people to Mars we’re not going to develop the technology to send anyone further, and How would going to another solar system be useful? Our solar system is probably pretty typical, so whatever useful there is, is already here. If anyone ever does go to another solar system, the only thing they’re sending back will be digitized information, but probably not much that is actually useful. ---
**Author:** ![Kozmik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/8dc957/32.png) [@Kozmik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kozmik)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2009, 12:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-will-be-a-manned-mission-to-mars-in-my-lifetime/482674/94 "2009-01-28T00:26:11Z")
According to _Total Recall_, yes, and Arnold Schwarzenegger will be President. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2009, 9:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-will-be-a-manned-mission-to-mars-in-my-lifetime/482674/95 "2009-01-28T09:52:33Z")
> [@levdrakon](#): > > How would going to another solar system be useful? Our solar system is probably pretty typical, so whatever useful there is, is already here. That’s an awful lot to hang on the word ‘probably’. Especially when we’ve found all sorts of strangeness out there. ---
**Author:** ![levdrakon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/49beb7/32.png) [@levdrakon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/levdrakon)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2009, 9:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-will-be-a-manned-mission-to-mars-in-my-lifetime/482674/96 "2009-01-28T21:05:11Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > That’s an awful lot to hang on the word ‘probably’. Especially when we’ve found all sorts of strangeness out there. Well, strangeness is interesting, but not necessarily useful. A strange gas giant is a strange gas giant, but we’re not going to pack it up and ship it back home. ---
**Author:** ![Enola\_Straight](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/dec6dc/32.png) [@Enola\_Straight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Enola_Straight)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2009, 11:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-will-be-a-manned-mission-to-mars-in-my-lifetime/482674/97 "2009-01-28T23:44:10Z")
38…I doubt it. IIRC it took a round trip of a week for a moon mission. With today’s technology, a mars round trip would take at least a year! You wanna be cooped up in some sterile tin-can for a year? MAYBE…if in the future we develop some kind of long-burn, high-thrust rocket engine based on nuclear fusion…AND some kind of force field that would protect astronauts from solar radiation and high speed micrometeorite strikes (deadly important with high velocities near the asteroid belt), we can make a round trip in one month. But both technologies are still in the real of science fiction. ---
**Author:** ![Lust4Life](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ecc23a/32.png) [@Lust4Life](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lust4Life)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2009, 3:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-will-be-a-manned-mission-to-mars-in-my-lifetime/482674/98 "2009-01-29T15:27:29Z")
YES YES YES If we dont we might as well give up on mankind now. ---
**Author:** ![toadspittle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/c0e974/32.png) [@toadspittle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/toadspittle)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2009, 4:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-will-be-a-manned-mission-to-mars-in-my-lifetime/482674/99 "2009-01-29T16:10:37Z")
No. ETA: I wish that we WOULD go to Mars, but since we’ve been out of the game so long since Apollo, I don’t see us getting our crap together for Mars before the 2080s. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-will-be-a-manned-mission-to-mars-in-my-lifetime/482674.md?page=4)