# There will be no major terror attacks in the US **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 9, 2007, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-will-be-no-major-terror-attacks-in-the-us/422107 "2007-10-09T16:20:18Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2007, 1:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-will-be-no-major-terror-attacks-in-the-us/422107/41 "2007-10-11T01:55:13Z")
[QUOTE=PatriotX] I thought your posts were intended to be relevant to the posts of mine you had quoted. Apparently I was mistaken on that point, but correct on the non-sequitur aspect. [/QUOTE] Hardly a non-sequitur. You said : [QUOTE=PatriotX] Despite their ostensible inability to fight this sort of a war they seem to be fighting this sort of a war. What makes you think that they can’t engage in the global guerrilla campaign they are currently engaged in? [/QUOTE] And I’m saying that they aren’t. They are fighting, yes, but they aren’t fighting a “global guerrilla campaign”; there are many more people who hate us ( and others ) than them. I’m saying that killing or otherwise stopping Al Qaeda doesn’t matter, because we have made so many other enemies for ourselves. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2007, 5:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-will-be-no-major-terror-attacks-in-the-us/422107/42 "2007-10-11T05:38:44Z")
[QUOTE=PatriotX] What brought you to that conclusion? [/quote] I’ve read too many articles about the topic to remember any specific one. But looking at the varying ideas of what they wanted, I think it’s the most sensible conclusion. > [@](#): > > Their experience with the FSU certainly wasn’t a one off proposition. > Why do you suppose that they assumed that it would be a one off deal to sink the other super-power? A lack of knowledge about U.S. leadership, for one. The fact that they weren’t fighting USSR soldiers, but striking at the U.S. capitol and the symbolic center of its economy. Overconfidence. > [@](#): > > So aQ did get larger,but you think they expected grwo even more than they actually did? I’ve been trying to make a distinction between the original Al Qaeda - the group lead by Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri that was based in Afghanistan six years ago - and the group that exists now, which is more global and doesn’t have as much top-down leadership. I think Bin Laden & Co. expected the scenario I outlined. What’s happened instead is that, while some of their ideas and methods have taken root, it has not brought them the direct benefits they expected. They’re not kingmakers in the Middle East, and they haven’t scared the West out of the region. Israel hasn’t been destroyed. > [@](#): > > And you’re citing this growth into a “movement” as an example of how they have not been “successful”? The fact that it became a movement is not a failure. I think they failed to achieve other goals, and the movement did not do what they thought it would. None of the governments that deal with the West have been overthrown and replaced by strict pro-AQ regimes. I don’t think the plan was “attack the U.S., run and hide for years, watch other people lead our group while we become figureheads, have the U.S. leave Saudi Arabia but set up a new base elsewhere in the Middle East,” and so on. > [@](#): > > I’m of the opinion that their experience w/ the FSU heavily influenced their strategic thinking and that they knew they wouldn’t sink a super power in a day. It’s only my opinion. But the main idea is that not everything that has happened has been according to the AQ masterplan, just like it’s not true that “if we [don’t invade Iraq/reconsider any part or our foreign policy/butter the underside of our tast], the terrorists win!” > [@Der Trihs](#): > > What makes you think they are on the run ? It’s not like we’ve ever seriously gone after them; we’ve just used them as an excuse to do other things, like attack Iraq. I expect Osama is in some nice house in Pakistan, not ‘on the run’. As I wrote earlier, I don’t think he’s really in a cave. I used the term figuratively. I don’t think he’s living the life he’s accustomed to living, and I don’t think he expected to be the invisible leader of his group; I think he expected to be ordering Shahs and Emirs around by now. ---
**Author:** ![chowder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/977dab/32.png) [@chowder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chowder)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2007, 7:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-will-be-no-major-terror-attacks-in-the-us/422107/43 "2007-10-11T07:52:53Z")
Do me, and many more, a favour **Der Trihs** please try to limit your anti-American sentiments to an absolute minimum. We are all aware you harbour an irrational hatred of all things American, there is little to be gained by constantly chirping on about it. It’s really tiresome y’know ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2007, 8:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-will-be-no-major-terror-attacks-in-the-us/422107/44 "2007-10-11T08:02:27Z")
[QUOTE=chowder] Do me, and many more, a favour **Der Trihs** please try to limit your anti-American sentiments to an absolute minimum. We are all aware you harbour an irrational hatred of all things American, there is little to be gained by constantly chirping on about it. It’s really tiresome y’know [/QUOTE] If disapproving of conquest and torture makes me “irrational”, then bring on the irrationality. ---
**Author:** ![chowder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/977dab/32.png) [@chowder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chowder)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2007, 9:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-will-be-no-major-terror-attacks-in-the-us/422107/45 "2007-10-11T09:50:55Z")
You misunderstand me my friend. By irrational I meant quite simply that I find it _irrational_ for an American, such as yourself, to so despise his country to the extent that at each and every opprtunity you never fail to remind us of this dislike. As an Englishman, and damn proud of it, I could never in a million years bring myself to feel about my country the way you feel about yours. No matter how my country behaves, I am an Englishman first and foremost. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2007, 10:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-will-be-no-major-terror-attacks-in-the-us/422107/46 "2007-10-11T10:42:46Z")
[QUOTE=chowder] You misunderstand me my friend. By irrational I meant quite simply that I find it _irrational_ for an American, such as yourself, to so despise his country to the extent that at each and every opprtunity you never fail to remind us of this dislike. As an Englishman, and damn proud of it, I could never in a million years bring myself to feel about my country the way you feel about yours. No matter how my country behaves, I am an Englishman first and foremost. [/QUOTE] A barbaric attitude, that has led to immense suffering throughout history. ---
**Author:** ![chowder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/977dab/32.png) [@chowder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chowder)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2007, 11:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-will-be-no-major-terror-attacks-in-the-us/422107/47 "2007-10-11T11:39:37Z")
Now you enter the realms of idiocy. To state that my attitude is barbaric because of my love of country is ridiculous. Please don’t let me lose the respect I have for you by maintaining such an obtuse stand ---
**Author:** ![Burton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/8e7dd6/32.png) [@Burton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Burton)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2007, 2:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-will-be-no-major-terror-attacks-in-the-us/422107/48 "2007-10-11T14:03:14Z")
It appears what you’re saying Chowder is that because you’re an Englishman you’re going to be supportive of anything the United Kingdom might undertake regardless whether you personally believe its the right thing to do. It’s way too easy to point out examples of this kind of thinking that led to horrendous consequences. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2007, 2:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-will-be-no-major-terror-attacks-in-the-us/422107/49 "2007-10-11T14:39:01Z")
[QUOTE=Burton] It appears what you’re saying Chowder is that because you’re an Englishman you’re going to be supportive of anything the United Kingdom might undertake regardless whether you personally believe its the right thing to do. [/QUOTE] He’s not saying anything that concrete. Love of one’s country isn’t a positive or a negative in and of itself, in my opinion - the problem is that patriotism often blurs into the sentiment you described. ---
**Author:** ![chowder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/977dab/32.png) [@chowder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chowder)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2007, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-will-be-no-major-terror-attacks-in-the-us/422107/50 "2007-10-11T15:09:08Z")
It’s really quite simple. I am an Englishman and I love my country with a fierce passion, I will continue to do so until the day I die. My patriotism means that my country comes first in a long list.Unlike **Der Trihs** who hates the country of his birth for reasons best known unto himself, this attitude of his I find quite disgraceful. I always reckoned that Americans were among the most patriotic nation on earth but **Der Trihs** shakes my belief in that. FWIW if, for example, my country was to embark on a path similar to that of 1930s Nazis then I would not subscribe to that, I would still love my country, not the politicans ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2007, 3:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-will-be-no-major-terror-attacks-in-the-us/422107/51 "2007-10-11T15:18:57Z")
[QUOTE=chowder] Unlike **Der Trihs** who hates the country of his birth for reasons best known unto himself, this attitude of his I find quite disgraceful. [/quote] I guess he’s only getting as good as he gives, but why is that a disgrace? I don’t feel patriotism either, although I think of it as more silly than dangerous. (As the comedian said, “It’s a round world last time I checked.”) > [@](#): > > I always reckoned that Americans were among the most patriotic nation on earth but **Der Trihs** shakes my belief in that. As it is, an awful lot of the 300 million people here will tolerate no criticism of the U.S. It can get scary. In that light, I’m very happy there are people like **Der Trihs**. ---
**Author:** ![Burton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/8e7dd6/32.png) [@Burton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Burton)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2007, 3:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-will-be-no-major-terror-attacks-in-the-us/422107/52 "2007-10-11T15:27:09Z")
Being a nation of people that are paying attention to what’s going on and speaking out against what’s wrong is showing that you care far more than wearing a flag pin on your lapel. Patriotism is not my country right or wrong. There would be no America if we thought that way. ---
**Author:** ![PatriotX](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c4cdca/32.png) [@PatriotX](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatriotX)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2007, 3:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-will-be-no-major-terror-attacks-in-the-us/422107/53 "2007-10-11T15:40:09Z")
[QUOTE=Der Trihs] They are fighting, yes, but they aren’t fighting a “global guerrilla campaign”.. [/QUOTE] So which qualifier do you take issue with? Are they not fighting? Is it not global? Is it not a guerrilla /insurgency type of campaign? Is it not a campaign? ---
**Author:** ![PatriotX](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c4cdca/32.png) [@PatriotX](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatriotX)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2007, 3:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-will-be-no-major-terror-attacks-in-the-us/422107/54 "2007-10-11T15:42:12Z")
[QUOTE=Burton] Being a nation of people that are paying attention to what’s going on and speaking out against what’s wrong is showing that you care far more than wearing a flag pin on your lapel. [/QUOTE] Yes, if you love your country. Absent that affection, it’s just … ---
**Author:** ![stolichnaya](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/bcef8e/32.png) [@stolichnaya](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/stolichnaya)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2007, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-will-be-no-major-terror-attacks-in-the-us/422107/55 "2007-10-11T16:03:23Z")
Let me put this in another language: Hate the Sin, Love the Sinner. It’s possible to love your country and still think it is a negative force in the world. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2007, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-will-be-no-major-terror-attacks-in-the-us/422107/56 "2007-10-11T16:17:12Z")
[QUOTE=stolichnaya] Let me put this in another language: Hate the Sin, Love the Sinner. [/quote] Some people… well, me, anyway… think that’s a bullshit PR line somebody dreamed up to put a smiley face on homophobia. > [@](#): > > It’s possible to love your country and still think it is a negative force in the world. Not that I’m questioning your views, but in that case, what would you say you love? ---
**Author:** ![stolichnaya](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/bcef8e/32.png) [@stolichnaya](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/stolichnaya)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2007, 4:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-will-be-no-major-terror-attacks-in-the-us/422107/57 "2007-10-11T16:27:01Z")
I was trying to make kind of a snide reference there, re: HTS,LTS. I love the ideals of this country and the people in it. I love the potential for greatness, I love the advancement of individual rights that has taken place here. I tear up at the national anthem. I think that we are hurting the world and our future in it by following our current policies. ---
**Author:** ![chowder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/977dab/32.png) [@chowder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chowder)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2007, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-will-be-no-major-terror-attacks-in-the-us/422107/58 "2007-10-11T16:59:13Z")
This thread appears to have ignored the OP question. Might I suggest we get back to that ---
**Author:** ![stolichnaya](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/bcef8e/32.png) [@stolichnaya](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/stolichnaya)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2007, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-will-be-no-major-terror-attacks-in-the-us/422107/59 "2007-10-11T17:22:47Z")
Yes, we will be attacked by terrorists within the next year. No, it will not be major. Yes, this is all speculation. No, I have no problem with that. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_One](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/45deac/32.png) [@Evil\_One](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_One)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2007, 11:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-will-be-no-major-terror-attacks-in-the-us/422107/60 "2007-10-11T23:31:26Z")
Yes, America will be hit with what will be considered a “major” terrorist attack. Within the next year? I don’t know. But when it comes, the political reaction will be nearly as substantial as it was after 9/11. The American public will once again demand action and will turn away from “what if” and “slippery slope” civil liberties scenarios and toward those who they perceive as having more national security credibility. If thousands more Americans are dead, a vast majority of the population is not going to care whether a captured jihadist has a lawyer or not. Will there be mistakes and overreactions? Yes. Our system is not perfect, nor are the people that participate in it. But the voices that proclaim the “let a hundred guilty go free rather than punish one innocent” school of thought are going to be drowned out by the howls of outrage. I even have an idea of how they might do it. I have outlined my personal nightmare terror scenario in other threads and I will repeat it here in the spirit of returning the thread to the OP. I think that hundreds of jihadists could sneak over the mexican border a few at a time over a period of a year or two. Imagine what could happen if they are given guns and fan out to hundreds of shopping malls on the Friday after Thanksgiving. The death toll could easily top that of 9/11 and the American public would be shaken to the core nationwide. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-will-be-no-major-terror-attacks-in-the-us/422107.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/there-will-be-no-major-terror-attacks-in-the-us/422107.md?page=4)