# "There's no place like Iraq for a holiday" -- really? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [June 1, 2003, 12:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theres-no-place-like-iraq-for-a-holiday-really/178934 "2003-06-01T12:10:22Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 12\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![december](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/838e76/32.png) [@december](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/december)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2003, 8:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theres-no-place-like-iraq-for-a-holiday-really/178934/21 "2003-06-01T20:41:24Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by litost \* > \*\*How dare they! How flippant and juvenile ! When they should be apologizing and resigning en masse. \*\* You’re being sarcastic, **litost** , but [some critics of the Australian Broadcasting System would more-or-less agree with that POV](http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2003/05/31/1054177766824.html). > [@](#): > > An item on March 21 reported on “international aid agencies . . . fear that hundreds of thousands of Iraqis could soon be streaming out of Iraq”. Senator Alston cites this story as a “beat-up”. He claims: “No catastrophe, not even a crisis. Only one aid agency (Red Cross), not hundreds of refugees, not even possibly.” The number of refugees is a assertion that can be objectively evaluated. Either many thousands of Iraqis are fleeing the country, or few Iraqis are fleeing. Steyn said few are fleeing. I have not seen recent articles still alleging that many thousands of Iraqis were fleeing, so Steyn appears to be correct on this point. However, AFAIK there haven’t been any corrections or apologies from the media and international aid agencies who had put out the story about the hundreds of thousands streaming out of Iraq. Why it ridiculous to think that they ought to explicitly acknowledge having been wrong? ---
**Author:** ![jshore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/b5e925/32.png) [@jshore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jshore)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2003, 9:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theres-no-place-like-iraq-for-a-holiday-really/178934/22 "2003-06-01T21:10:13Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by december \* > However, AFAIK there haven’t been any corrections or apologies from the media and international aid agencies who had put out the story about the hundreds of thousands streaming out of Iraq. Why it ridiculous to think that they ought to explicitly acknowledge having been wrong? **december** : (1) Could you at least provide links to these stories that talked about “hundreds of thousands streaming out of Iraq” so we can see who made the claims and how widespread they were? (2) Well, how about corrections and apologies regarding the existence of huge caches of WMDs? > [@](#): > > Instead, they’ll simply drop the subject and start beating the Bush administration over something else – like the lack of WMDs. **december** , just so we can clarify how whacked out your perceptions of reality are, do you honestly believe that the press here in the U.S. is beating up on Bush?!?! What freakin’ alternate universe are you living in and how can I move there? ---
**Author:** ![december](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/838e76/32.png) [@december](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/december)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2003, 9:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theres-no-place-like-iraq-for-a-holiday-really/178934/23 "2003-06-01T21:18:53Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by jshore \* > (1) Could you at least provide links to these stories that talked about “hundreds of thousands streaming out of Iraq” so we can see who made the claims and how widespread they were? I gave a cite that referred to the ABC story with that reference. I don’t have a cite to the original ABC story, but nobody disputed that it was broadcast. > [@](#): > > (2) Well, how about corrections and apologies regarding the existence of huge caches of WMDs? Several conservative sources have admitted to having been wrong. I have admitted to having been wrong on another thread. > [@](#): > > **december** , just so we can clarify how whacked out your perceptions of reality are, do you honestly believe that the press here in the U.S. is beating up on Bush?!?! They are both beating up on Bush and supporting him. From your POV perhaps they don’t beat him up enough; from my POV they beat him up too much. ---
**Author:** ![jshore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/b5e925/32.png) [@jshore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jshore)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2003, 9:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theres-no-place-like-iraq-for-a-holiday-really/178934/24 "2003-06-01T21:30:03Z")
**december** : In regards to Mark Steyn’s article on the climate in Afghanistan, here is his quote about the weather there (written January 7): > [@](#): > > Yesterday, it was 55 and clear in Kandahar and Herat. Ghurian checked in at 55, with 62 predicted for tomorrow. Fifty-seven and sunny in Bost and Laskar, with 64 expected on Thursday. In Kabul, it was 55, though with the windchill factored in it was only – let me see now – 54. While this may be true, it is far from typical (and it is a presumably the high temperature quoted in a place that has strong diurnal temperature ranges because of its dry climate). [Here](http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/clouds-centralasia.htm) is a discussion of general climatic conditions in Afghanistan. I give you a few relevant quotes: > [@](#): > > The climate is typical of an arid or semiarid steppe, with cold winters and dry summers. The mountain regions of the northeast are subarctic with dry and cold winters… > > On the intermountain plateaus the winds do not blow very strongly, but in the Sistan Basin there are severe blizzards that occur during the winter, generally December through February. Note the chart at the bottom in which the average temperature in the winter of 1981 (over how many months, I do not know) was -3.3 C. This may not be so frigid by Canadian standards, but it is plenty cold! Anyway, we can probably find more data…but you get the picture here. Steyn uses very selective facts to make the points he wants to make. And you buy right into it. ---
**Author:** ![december](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/838e76/32.png) [@december](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/december)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2003, 9:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theres-no-place-like-iraq-for-a-holiday-really/178934/25 "2003-06-01T21:49:59Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by jshore \* > Note the chart at the bottom in which the average temperature in the winter of 1981 (over how many months, I do not know) was -3.3 C. This may not be so frigid by Canadian standards, but it is plenty cold! Plenty cold enough for what? The explicit, widely-reported claim was that: _In winter it would be too cold to prosecute a war in Afghanistan_. We know that claim was wrong. Why? Because _the US did just that._ BTW -3.3[sup]o[/sup] C = 27[sup]o[/sup] F is an average temperature, not an average high temperature. By comparison, Scranton, PA has an average high in January of 33[sup]o[/sup] F and an average low of 21[sup]o[/sup] F, so their average temperature is also around 27[sup]o[/sup] F. This is cold enough to require winter clothing, but certainly not so cold as to preclude making war. ---
**Author:** ![litost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/c4cdca/32.png) [@litost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/litost)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2003, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theres-no-place-like-iraq-for-a-holiday-really/178934/26 "2003-06-01T21:51:54Z")
Are there links to articles in the BBC or other reputable news organizations that were egregiously wrong re: Afghanistan? Is there a link to Steyn’s rebuttal article on Afghanistan? I would like to read more before I can admit to the reputable news organizations being wrong. A point to consider before delving in: Erroneous reporting is vastly different from wrong predictions. ---
**Author:** ![litost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/c4cdca/32.png) [@litost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/litost)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2003, 9:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theres-no-place-like-iraq-for-a-holiday-really/178934/27 "2003-06-01T21:54:10Z")
Re: winter in Afghanistan, one has to realize that the country does not have extensive indoor heating systems. Even -3 degrees celsius in poor countries is a nightmare to contend with, especially for the majority living in the lower economic strata. ---
**Author:** ![december](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/838e76/32.png) [@december](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/december)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2003, 10:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theres-no-place-like-iraq-for-a-holiday-really/178934/28 "2003-06-01T22:15:42Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by litost \* > Are there links to articles in the BBC or other reputable news organizations that were egregiously wrong re: Afghanistan? Here’s a Christian Science Monitor [article](http://www.csmonitor.com/2001/1108/p6s1-wosc.html) from Nov. 2001, which was typical of many. Here’s an [article from ABC News](http://more.abcnews.go.com/sections/world/dailynews/strike011010_refugee.html) showing that the international aid community was hyping the weather. > [@](#): > > As the onset of the brutal Central Asian winter looms over Afghanistan, the international aid community is gearing up for what could be the worst humanitarian crisis faced in the region. Of course, what actually happened was that the US secured a rapid victory, regardless of the weather, and provided relief thus solving the humanitarian crisis. > [@](#): > > Is there a link to Steyn’s rebuttal article on Afghanistan? [http://www.obv.org.uk/reports/2002/rpt20020112g.htm](http://www.obv.org.uk/reports/2002/rpt20020112g.htm) Note that Steyn correctly predicted that the winter weather would not prevent a military victory. > [@](#): > > A point to consider before delving in: Erroneous reporting is vastly different from wrong predictions. Sometimes they’re not so different. When the Australian Broadcasting System incorrectly predicted hundreds of thousands of refugees, one can say that was a mere wrong prediction. However, it also constituted an erronious analysis of actual conditions in Iraq. > [@](#): > > Even -3 degrees celsius in poor countries is a nightmare to contend with, especially for the majority living in the lower economic strata. Granted, but the allegation was that the cold weather would prevent a military victory. ---
**Author:** ![jshore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/b5e925/32.png) [@jshore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jshore)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2003, 1:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theres-no-place-like-iraq-for-a-holiday-really/178934/29 "2003-06-02T01:06:47Z")
**december** : [Here](http://www.csmonitor.com/2001/1108/p1s1-usmi.html%5B/url) and [here](http://www.csmonitor.com/2001/1108/p6s1-wosc.html) are two articles that suggest that it was not just international aid agencies that were playing up the harsh winter. It was soldiers for the Northern Alliance, Russian soldiers, and even the U.S. military itself (which was arguing it could be a potential advantage). And, as near as I can tell, most of the aide agencies were concerned about the winter in terms of the Afghani civilians not the U.S. military. When Michael Moore pulls this sort careless use of facts, you conservatives eat him for breakfast. Steyn does it and you practically worship him as an oracle. ---
**Author:** ![jshore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/b5e925/32.png) [@jshore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jshore)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2003, 1:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theres-no-place-like-iraq-for-a-holiday-really/178934/30 "2003-06-02T01:27:29Z")
> [@](#): > > _Originally posted by december_ > Here’s a Christian Science Monitor [article](http://www.csmonitor.com/2001/1108/p6s1-wosc.html) from Nov. 2001, which was typical of many. Just realized that this is the same article I linked to. It seems to me that it shows that his claim that the analysis of the winter conditions as being harsh was not just mainly due to international aid agencies. It also shows the the press was giving ample coverage to the U.S. military’s claim that these cold conditions would work to the military’s advantage. That is hardly the story of what was being said by others as painted by your friend Steyn. > [@](#): > > Of course, what actually happened was that the US secured a rapid victory, regardless of the weather, and provided relief thus solving the humanitarian crisis. Yes. Maybe that’s what happened, but I don’t think even the U.S. miltary planners knew that they could win that quickly. Nor did they know how mild or cold that particular winter was going to be and how early the cold conditions would set in. There are also lots of people who have driven drunk without getting into an accident. Would you say that we should therefore conclude (especially for those who have a 100% record of not getting in an accident drunk) that their being drunk and driving is not a concern that needs to be considered? By the way, it may well be true that Steyn predicted that the winter would not prevent a quick military victory. But, given that you are making such a big deal about this prediction (which was, as I noted, also talked about in the CS Monitor piece), it might be useful to actually have a quote from Steyn from **before** the war. I did a google search on “Steyn brutal Afghan winter” and all the stuff it seemed to pull up, like the ones you linked to, were things Steyn said after the U.S. victory. ---
**Author:** ![jshore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/b5e925/32.png) [@jshore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jshore)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2003, 1:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theres-no-place-like-iraq-for-a-holiday-really/178934/31 "2003-06-02T01:55:09Z")
By the way, I finally found some nice data from the National Climate Data Center concerning climate in Afghanistan. [Here](http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/afghan/afghan2.html) it is so you can play around with it yourself. Note the following: For January, mean temperatures for the 7 cities shown range from 13 F in a place called “North Salang”, a bit northwest of Kabul to 28 F in Kabul itself and 41 and 45 F for two cities in the south. The mean maxima are 20 F, 40 F, 54 F and 58 F for these places, respectively. And the mean minima are -2 F, 19 F, 32 F, and 40 F. So, yeah, Kabul on average is similar to Scranton (2 degrees colder at night and 7 degrees warmer for the high)…which may not be “brutal” but is plenty cold, especially for civilians who might not have adequate heat, clothing, and food. And, North Salang’s numbers (and numbers nearly as cold for a place called “Chaghcharan”) put it on par with Montreal…even a bit colder in the low, I believe. And, I can tell you from personal experience that characterizing Montreal winters as “brutal” is something that few would quibble with! (We learn below that North Salang is high up…11,000 ft…and so it is probably not the most representative conditions, but a lot of the fighting was expected to be done…and was done…in the mountains.) I don’t know exactly how representative these places are and how NCDC decided which places to show. But, [this](http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/afghan/overview.html) page gives NCDC’s overview of Afghanistan’s climate. Here’s a quote: > [@](#): > > Afghanistan is a mountainous country in a dry part of the world which experiences extremes of climate and weather. Winters are cold and snowy, and summers hot and dry. The wet season generally runs from winter through early spring, but the country on the whole is dry, falling within the Desert or Desert Steppe climate classification. Very little snow falls in the lowland deserts of the southwest, but the snow season averages roughly October-April in the mountains and varies considerably with elevation. > > … > > ``` > * Temperatures can vary widely, from as cold as 51 degrees below zero F at Chakhcharan (in the north central mountains at an elevation of 7162 feet) to as hot as 124 degrees F in the southwestern deserts at Zaranj. > * The mountain valleys can experience, on average, 10 to 30 days per year with snowfall, but the higher passes receive much more snow. > > ``` > > - At an elevation of 11,043 feet, North Salang receives snow, on average, 98 days out of the year with depths reaching as high as 177 inches. Snow has been observed on the ground there as early as August and as late as June. > > Strong winds can blow any time of the year, spawning blinding dust storms in the summer and raging blizzards in the winter. During the period 1961-1983, wind gusts were clocked as high as 98 mph in February at Farah, in western Afghanistan. Sunny skies characterize the dry summers, while low clouds bring rain and snow to much of the country during the winter wet season. ---
**Author:** ![system](https://global.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/original/2X/e/e489c3b7d8fce19c4b355dd4fc3f88cc39c34b87.png) [@system](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/system)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2003, 7:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theres-no-place-like-iraq-for-a-holiday-really/178934/32 "2003-06-02T07:00:41Z")
Let me cover an item or two, more for others than for the OP who is insensible to information: (a) The hundreds of thousands Iraqi refugees December refers to is a pre-war ‘expectation’ or prepatory issue, I do not recall reading actual reports of that. I know the folks who worked on this **personally.** Good friends of mine now, largely from the IOM. They based their planning and expectations off of 1990-1991 actual experience. It did not happen. It’s like the weather, you prepare for a bad storm and are happy when it doesn’t happen. Why didn’t the Iraqis stream out like in 1991? Open question. Border issues, lack of transport, inability, fear, confidence… no one knows precisely. The anticipation, contra the ideological smear, was good thinking. Taking out insurance for something that does not happen does not mean that taking out insurance was in error. The planning for major refugee streams is not the same as claiming that they are happening, I would think someone in your claimed profession would be able to grasp the utility of insurance. (b) As to the “article” I note the revisions the Administration has undertaken in regards to troop presence and intensified efforts to install a secure situation, as well as the recent organized strikes against US columns. All reports I hear from variety of sources, Iraqi friends, other Arabs with Iraqi connexions, USG, etc. tell me that the security situation is tense and in many areas declining. The fact this idiot was able to drive across the empty desert from Amman to Baghdad w/o incident and then swing North is a testament to luck. I might add I fail to see how a journo swinging through on a rapid tour is able to eyeball for cholera (of course the areas said to be of major concern are to the south) I don’t know. The article is bullshit tripe. Now, let me note, for example, some items from yesterday’s (Sunday 1 June) daily security assessment report by int’l security assessment team (among whom I have amigos): > [@](#): > > SECURITY: ROADS TO BAGHDAD > • Two significant security incidents have involved UN staff. In the first, two female UN national staff were traveling in a taxi between al-Ramadi and al-Falluja when they experienced an attempted carjacking. The bandits fired at the vehicle several times with a shotgun, wounding the driver. Nevertheless, he managed to maneuver past the assailants escape the attack. \*\*\*\*\*\*\*. The area of Al Ramadi –Al Fallujah has long been famous for being a dangerous area, even during the previous regime. It is highly recommended to travel in convoys and to avoid stopping in that area. > • \*\*\* a UN convoy returning from the airport was stopped by Coalition forces securing the area following an RPG attack against one of their vehicles. The military vehicle was reportedly hit by two projectiles, and the wreckage was scattered over a fifty-meter area. The U.N. convoy team leader managed to stop at safe distance from the scene, permitting a U-turn if necessary. After conferring with the Coalition forces and local bystanders, the team leader was able to resume the trip. Locals reported that the attack was launched by “Saddam Fedayeen.” Conclusion: The presence of a Coalition military convoy or a Coalition checkpoint does not necessarily increase the safety and security of bystanders. There is more, but largely of trivial interest. Of positive note, nighttime gun battles in Baghdad are reported to be decreasing but moving West, but organized or semi-organized attacks against US forces have appeared. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theres-no-place-like-iraq-for-a-holiday-really/178934.md?page=1)