# They're really gonna do it again. Shutdown 2015! **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 9, 2015, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467 "2015-09-09T22:08:07Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2015, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/1 "2015-09-09T22:08:07Z")
Given the lack of any other ideas from the Once-Grand Old Party, they’re going back to a tactic that has worked so well for them in recent years - [shutting down the government](http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/09/09/1419830/-House-Republican-leadership-will-listen-to-the-far-right-wing-in-effort-to-avoid-nbsp-shutdown?showAll=yes), and holding their breath until they turn blue. They may not even be able to avoid it, given all the mandatory funding bills that have to be passed in what little time is left. > [@](#): > > Congress has “a great capacity to screw up. Never underestimate our ability to screw up,” Rep. Charlie Dent (R-Pa.), an Appropriations subcommittee chairman, said in a phone interview. Dent added that he’s dreading “another messy session.” ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2015, 10:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/2 "2015-09-09T22:24:33Z")
There will be no shutdown. The Republicans are determined to avoid one after losing the political battle around two in a row. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2015, 10:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/3 "2015-09-09T22:29:02Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > There will be no shutdown. The Republicans are determined to avoid one after losing the political battle around two in a row. I’m disappointed. I was hoping you’d have found some way by now to spin the last two shutdowns as _victories_ for the GOP. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2015, 10:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/4 "2015-09-09T22:29:30Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > There will be no shutdown. The Republicans are determined to avoid one after losing the political battle around two in a row. Doesn’t look that way, does it? BTW, that’s another prediction, for those keeping score. ---
**Author:** ![harmonicamoon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/65b543/32.png) [@harmonicamoon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/harmonicamoon)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2015, 10:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/5 "2015-09-09T22:30:53Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > There will be no shutdown. The Republicans are determined to avoid one after losing the political battle around two in a row. They are learning from their mistakes? ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2015, 10:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/6 "2015-09-09T22:31:46Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > There will be no shutdown. The Republicans are determined to avoid one after losing the political battle around two in a row. The Republicans were really determined to keep Obama from getting reelected. They have also been really determined to repeal the ACA. How have they done with those two things? Did being really determined equal success? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2015, 10:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/7 "2015-09-09T22:32:20Z")
You tend to learn from mistakes that burn you. And yes, that’s a prediction, unless the Democrats maneuver things in such a way to provoke a shutdown, such as voting against a bill they would normally support and thus siding with the Tea Partiers. Which would be pretty stupid, so I doubt that will happen. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2015, 10:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/8 "2015-09-09T22:33:24Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > The Republicans were really determined to keep Obama from getting reelected. They have also been really determined to repeal the ACA. How have they done with those two things? Did being really determined equal success? Avoiding a shutdown merely takes the decision to not have a shutdown. If only defeating Obama and repealing ACA were so easy. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2015, 10:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/9 "2015-09-09T22:34:25Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > You tend to learn from mistakes that burn you. To repeat: Doesn’t look that way, does it? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2015, 10:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/10 "2015-09-09T22:35:37Z")
Not for the hardcore guys, but the leadership is not down with it this time. This is not the first time we’ve had a shutdown scare since the last one. The leadership avoided it last time too. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2015, 10:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/11 "2015-09-09T22:48:18Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Avoiding a shutdown merely takes the decision to not have a shutdown. Where do you get this shit? [There may be no way to avoid it anymore.](http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/09/09/get-ready-experts-say-a-government-shutdown-is-likely/) > [@](#): > > Instead, lawmakers will probably try to pass a short-term budget extension that basically keeps spending levels the same as last year and keeps the government open. > > But even that’s going to be tough. Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are using the budget process to push their ideological agendas on everything from abortion to military spending to international nuclear deals. And there’s a presidential campaign going on, complicating the decisions and actions of the five senators running for the White House. (And in the Senate, sometimes it only takes one.) The \*lowest \*probability estimate the WaPo analysts make is “well over 50 percent”. > [@](#): > > To recap, we have the Planned Parenthood debate, the Export-Import Bank, debates over military vs. domestic spending, the Iran nuclear deal and the debt limit all threatening to play a part in at least a temporary government shutdown. Oh yeah, and Congress still has to okay a fund by Oct. 29 to help pay for highways and bridges (known as the Highway Trust Fund). > > Put that all together, and it’s 70 percent likely the government will shut down for at least a day or two, Jim Manley, a former high-ranking Senate Democratic aide to then-Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), told The Fix. There’s simply too much to get done and too many pressure points. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2015, 10:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/12 "2015-09-09T22:50:07Z")
If you want to avoid one, all you have to do in the worst case is give the Democrats everything they want and use their votes plus the Republicans who want to avoid a shutdown at all costs to pass it. I don’t think you realize just how bad the Republicans don’t want a shutdown. If there is one, it will only be because Democrats think it will work out for them. But if they want it, then it won’t, so hopefully they aren’t catching the stupid bug. ---
**Author:** ![dracoi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/90db22/32.png) [@dracoi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dracoi)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2015, 11:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/13 "2015-09-09T23:00:27Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > You tend to learn from mistakes that burn you. And yes, that’s a prediction, unless the Democrats maneuver things in such a way to provoke a shutdown, such as voting against a bill they would normally support and thus siding with the Tea Partiers. Which would be pretty stupid, so I doubt that will happen. That’s no prediction at all. I’m a Republican myself and even I see the plain fact that any shutdown will, yet again, be spun as Democrats provoking the shutdown. The Republicans will just be “standing by their principles” while the Democrats “refuse to compromise”. :smack: ---
**Author:** ![Lobohan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lobohan/32/79_2.png) [@Lobohan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lobohan)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2015, 11:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/14 "2015-09-09T23:12:01Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I don’t think you realize just how bad the Republicans don’t want a shutdown. I don’t think you realize how ignorant and angry the GOP base primary voters are. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2015, 11:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/15 "2015-09-09T23:15:30Z")
Duplicate post ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2015, 11:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/16 "2015-09-09T23:17:12Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > If you want to avoid one, all you have to do in the worst case is give the Democrats everything they want and use their votes plus the Republicans who want to avoid a shutdown at all costs to pass it. > > I don’t think you realize just how bad the Republicans don’t want a shutdown. If there is one, it will only be because Democrats think it will work out for them. But if they want it, then it won’t, so hopefully they aren’t catching the stupid bug. What a load of crap. “Everyone” knows that if there’s a shutdown it will be because the Republicans will have tricked the Democrats into thinking it will be in their best interest. 😛 In other words, still the GOP’s fault. No one will buy your spin, **adaher**. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2015, 12:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/17 "2015-09-10T00:28:28Z")
If they didn’t learn from the political fallout the first time they did it, what makes you think they learned from the second time? ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2015, 12:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/18 "2015-09-10T00:40:54Z")
Do they actually have the vote count to simply have their way? How much does the strategy depend on scaring moderate Pubbies into lining up? Angel on my left shoulder says root for the moderates, pull more power to the semi-reasonable center. Devil on the other shoulder says let 'em run riot, fuck it all up, and reap the copious rewards come next year. Burn 'em down, pee on the ashes! I mean, pulling for John Boy Boner? Oh, the compromises… ---
**Author:** ![5\_time\_champ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/5/278dde/32.png) [@5\_time\_champ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/5_time_champ)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2015, 12:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/19 "2015-09-10T00:47:29Z")
So, some Republicans want to shut the government again. Great! maybe they can start impeachment proceedings against President Obama while they are at it. ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2015, 12:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/20 "2015-09-10T00:50:06Z")
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Republicans try to shut it down again, feebly blaming Democrats, just to see if the attempt gains any traction without Jon Stewart around to shine a spotlight on the attempt. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467.md?page=2)