# They're really gonna do it again. Shutdown 2015! **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 9, 2015, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467 "2015-09-09T22:08:07Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![D\_Anconia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@D\_Anconia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/D_Anconia)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2015, 1:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/21 "2015-09-10T01:34:32Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > If they didn’t learn from the political fallout the first time they did it, what makes you think they learned from the second time? The last time they did it, they increased their margin in the House, and took back control of the Senate. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2015, 1:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/22 "2015-09-10T01:43:22Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > There will be no shutdown. The Republicans are determined to avoid one after losing the political battle around two in a row. I agree with **adaher**. Mark me down for those keeping score, **Elvis**. ---
**Author:** ![2ManyTacos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/2/3da27b/32.png) [@2ManyTacos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/2ManyTacos)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2015, 5:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/23 "2015-09-10T05:49:12Z")
> [@D\_Anconia](#): > > The last time they did it, they increased their margin in the House, and took back control of the Senate. Was just about to say this. The last time there was a shutdown, the GOP looked stupid _at the time,_ but several months later they paid no political price for it. I’m a liberal guy, but that’s just the objective thing that actually happened in 2014. ---
**Author:** ![Locrian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/locrian/32/14146_2.png) [@Locrian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Locrian)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2015, 10:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/24 "2015-09-10T10:14:54Z")
I’m rooting for another Republican shutdown. Just like I root for the RR to spout more crap about “persecution”. The only way to avoid a shutdown does NOT merely take the decision to not have a shutdown. It requires progress, the GOP’s biggest allergy. If they would simply forget about SSM, the ACA, bootstrapping ideologies to other bills, denying global warming-- in other words, don’t be a Republican! And all it takes to NOT be a republican is to read a newspaper and stop being afraid of Google. It really takes just seconds to find out that John Wayne Gacy isn’t a famed Western star, or that women can’t shut off their ovaries while being raped. I did blame the Dems in 2010 when they failed to keep a majority. And we got even worse than I expected: a GOP-run government that absolutely, positively refuses to listen to their voters, only act as puppets to their biggest donors’ wants, and REALLY refuses to progress. Americans want health care. Americans want SSM. It’s done. Over. Period. Same for abortion. Politicians have nothing to do with a woman’s womb. Hey, if they get pregnant, it’s a holy gift, right? How many times to you need to be told “no” in order to stop acting like a child? It was three times for me as a kid and how many has it been for the GOOPs regarding overturning ACA? 13? 17? How much time/money was spent and/or donated to these dead causes? But like I said, I’m really hoping for another republican-lead shutdown. It would bring more poor attention to a dead political party. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2015, 11:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/25 "2015-09-10T11:07:37Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Avoiding a shutdown merely takes the decision to not have a shutdown. Making decisions is not one of the Republican’s strong points. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2015, 11:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/26 "2015-09-10T11:22:49Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I don’t think you realize just how bad the Republicans don’t want a shutdown. If there is one, it will only be because Democrats think it will work out for them. But if they want it, then it won’t, so hopefully they aren’t catching the stupid bug. It will work out for Democrats. Just as Democrats are known as the party that raises taxes (even when the Republicans do it), the GOP is the party that shuts down the government, and there is no amount of spin that will change that public perception, regardless of what the reality is. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2015, 11:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/27 "2015-09-10T11:24:56Z")
Ted Cruz failing to get senators to sign up to a shutdown pledge. (Thank you, autocorrect, for fixing my “shitdown pledge” to something more family friendly, but I think my original term was more accurate.) > **[Cruz's second shutdown play rankles fellow Republicans](https://www.politico.com/story/2015/09/cruz-defund-213467)** > > Ted Cruz says his hardline strategy to defund Planned Parenthood and risk a government shutdown is about doing the 'right thing' and following through on Republicans' vows to conservative voters. ---
**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2015, 12:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/28 "2015-09-10T12:01:04Z")
Meh. There’ve been 18 shutdowns since 1976 and the implementation of current budgeting rules. Some have been strictly “in-house” disagreements within one party. Some have seen about issues that break along bipartisan lines. Some have been about issues that break very clearly along partisan lines. None of it is new or particularly special. All took two sides willing to risk shutdown as a negotiating technique to get their way. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2015, 12:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/29 "2015-09-10T12:21:18Z")
> [@Lobohan](#): > > I don’t think you realize how ignorant and angry the GOP base primary voters are. So what? There’s no election this year. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2015, 1:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/30 "2015-09-10T13:18:57Z")
> [@DinoR](#): > > Meh. There’ve been 18 shutdowns since 1976 and the implementation of current budgeting rules. And all but maybe two of them were too short for anyone except serious political geeks to remember. There was the 1995-96 shutdown, and there was the 2013 shutdown. Instances of the government technically shutting down at midnight September 30, and un-shutting down by 3am October 1, don’t count as far as most of us are concerned. > [@2ManyTacos](#): > > The last time there was a shutdown, the GOP looked stupid _at the time,_ but several months later they paid no political price for it. > > I’m a liberal guy, but that’s just the objective thing that actually happened in 2014. Yeah, but surely you remember why. As the shutdown was ending, the disaster with the [healthcare.gov](http://healthcare.gov) website was the big news, and by the time the website finally got fixed, people had practically forgotten about the shutdown. And sure, there will always be some shiny toy for the Fox News crew to get worked up about, but this one made a difference because real people, people you knew, were trying to get into the website and buy health coverage, and not being able to do jack shit. This wasn’t something people may be against but don’t really give a shit about, like the Iran deal. > [@adaher](#): > > Not for the hardcore guys, but the leadership is not down with it this time. This is not the first time we’ve had a shutdown scare since the last one. The leadership avoided it last time too. Yeah, they’ve avoided one out of one starting in 2014. > [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > What a load of crap. “Everyone” knows that if there’s a shutdown it will be because the Republicans will have tricked the Democrats into thinking it will be in their best interest. Well, as a gummint worker, it’ll be in _my_ best interest, because if there’s a shutdown I’ll be able to get some projects done around the house while the Firebug’s off at school. Blocks of time where I can work on stuff without interruption are a precious commodity in the life of a parent of an 8 year old boy. I’m already putting together my list. ---
**Author:** ![D\_Anconia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@D\_Anconia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/D_Anconia)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2015, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/31 "2015-09-10T15:06:29Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Yeah, but surely you remember why. > > As the shutdown was ending, the disaster with the [healthcare.gov](http://healthcare.gov) website was the big news, and by the time the website finally got fixed, people had practically forgotten about the shutdown. > > And sure, there will always be some shiny toy for the Fox News crew to get worked up about, but this one made a difference because real people, people you knew, were trying to get into the website and buy health coverage, and not being able to do jack shit. This wasn’t something people may be against but don’t really give a shit about, like the Iran deal. The Republicans took 9(!) seats in the Senate because of the healthcare website. That’s an interesting, um, theory. I think you may be overestimating the effect healthcare dot gov had on the election. An estimated 11.7 million people enrolled for 2015 (Nov 2014-Feb 2015 enrollment period.) That’s out of a total population of 320+ million, or less than 4%. ---
**Author:** ![CaptMurdock](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captmurdock/32/11736_2.png) [@CaptMurdock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaptMurdock)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2015, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/32 "2015-09-10T15:46:40Z")
> [@D\_Anconia](#): > > The last time they did it, they increased their margin in the House, and took back control of the Senate. I’m pretty sure gerrymandering and the lowest voter turnout in 70 years was a bigger factor. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2015, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/33 "2015-09-10T15:49:04Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > I agree with **adaher**. Mark me down for those keeping score, **Elvis**. I’ll tentatively add a third vote in favor of no shutdown, or at most 1-2 days. Shutting down the government is like, having a baby, starting an unwinnable war or binge drinking. The next day you say “never again” and that promise will last until you have forgotten how bad you felt afterwards. The hangover from the last shutdown is too fresh in Congress’s minds for them to want to go through that all over again. It will take another decade or so for a new bunch of conservatives to come in and think it sounds like a good idea. Its possible that a short shutdown may happen as a result of running out of time as they try to figure out the proper arrangement that puts all the groups on the same page, but there won’t be a long term standoff with each side waiting for the other to side to blink. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2015, 4:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/34 "2015-09-10T16:29:36Z")
> [@D\_Anconia](#): > > The Republicans took 9(!) seats in the Senate because of the healthcare website. That’s an interesting, um, theory. It’s an interesting theory, but what does this have to do with what I just said? > [@](#): > > I think you may be overestimating the effect healthcare dot gov had on the election. Where do I estimate the effect that [healthcare.gov](http://healthcare.gov) had on the election? You must be confusing me with someone else. Damned if I know who, though. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2015, 5:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/35 "2015-09-10T17:00:37Z")
New Geico commercial: If you’re a Republican, you shut down the government. It’s what you do. Yes, there will be a shutdown. When Wall Street has had enough, they’ll pull their puppet strings and put an end to it. Republicans will whine if the WW II memorial is closed, everybody will blame Republicans in 2015 and promptly forget about it in 2016. Impact on the election is minimal. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2015, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/36 "2015-09-10T18:08:45Z")
There’s still a cumulative effect, though. The longer they act childishly, the less time and the more difficulty they’ll have in somehow appearing responsible to the electorate. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2015, 6:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/37 "2015-09-10T18:17:20Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > There’s still a cumulative effect, though. The longer they act childishly, the less time and the more difficulty they’ll have in somehow appearing responsible to the electorate. Not to their base – which is the problem. They need to act childish to get nominated and then adult to get elected. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2015, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/38 "2015-09-10T18:43:18Z")
[Benen has a good piece](http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/shutdown-deadline-draws-closer-gop-leaders-seem-lost#break) on why he thinks a shutdown is likely: > [@](#): > > The pieces are now in place for a replay of the GOP’s 2013 shutdown. Cruz is marshaling his House forces; Boehner and his leadership team have no idea how to move forward; and far-right lawmakers have a simple-but-unobtainable goal. The question is whether this time, we should expect a different result. > > The beleaguered Speaker told reporters this morning, “The goal here is not to shut down the government. The goal is to stop these horrific practices of organizations selling baby parts.” If even Boehner’s gonna spew bullshit about selling baby parts, there aren’t any adults in the room in the GOP House caucus. More Benen: > [@](#): > > The reason the former [short-term continuing resolution] is less likely than the latter [shutdown] is Planned Parenthood funding: many GOP lawmakers simply won’t support any spending bill, including a temporary measure, that provides funding to the health care organization, despite the fact that there’s no evidence of Planned Parenthood wrongdoing. Democrats, meanwhile, won’t go along with a hostage strategy that undermines women’s health care access. If Boehner wanted to pass a continuing resolution, he’d need to split off 30 GOP House members who were willing to vote for a CR that the House Dems were OK with, and that Mitch McConnell’s could live with in order to pass the Senate as well. It could happen, but I don’t see the stars aligning. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2015, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/39 "2015-09-10T18:51:45Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > If even Boehner’s gonna spew bullshit about selling baby parts, there aren’t any adults in the room in the GOP House caucus. Please forgive this awful phrase, but one cannot discount that Boehner has to throw red meat to his conservative foes if he wishes to remain Speaker for another two weeks. > [@](#): > > “If Boehner wanted to pass a continuing resolution, he’d need to split off 30 GOP House members who were willing to vote for a CR that the House Dems were OK with, and that Mitch McConnell’s could live with in order to pass the Senate as well.” If there aren’t 30 House Republicans who will vote with Boehner, then he is going to have to resign before Columbus Day. Nobody can be Speaker if they can’t manage to get 12% of their caucus to vote with them. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2015, 7:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/40 "2015-09-10T19:33:59Z")
[Good analysis from _The Atlantic:_](http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/09/conservatives-embark-on-another-futile-fight/404242/) > [@](#): > > In the view of conservatives, Republican leaders have never actually waged the full fight to the bitter end. Even when they brought the nation to the brink of default in 2011. Even when they shut down the government two years later. And even when they nearly let homeland-security funding lapse earlier this year. The party leadership always blinked, eventually. Nevermind that Speaker John Boehner and Majority Leader Mitch McConnell folded each time only after Republicans had incurred substantial political damage, and only after the White House and congressional Democrats had made clear they would move no further. According to this thinking, if GOP leaders had held out a little longer, a conservative victory would have been at hand. > > “They don’t want a fight at all, and that’s part of the problem,” Representative Mick Mulvaney, a South Carolina conservative, told me when I put this question to him last week. “The base has been waiting now for four years for a fight, and our leadership has never given it to them. We tried a little bit on Obamacare. We tried a little bit on immigration. But at the end we ultimately never stood up for what the base of the party wants. That’s why this is so critical.” > > \ > > Mulvaney didn’t dispute the conventional wisdom that Republicans would lose the spin game of a shutdown over Planned Parenthood. But his argument in favor of trying anyway was revealing. The conservative base put Republicans in charge of Congress, and it is the constituency to which the leadership needs to be accountable. And what about the rest of the country? That’s the wrong audience, Mulvaney suggested. “My leadership is trying to appeal to independent and swing voters who don’t care what we do right now and won’t until two or three months before the election,” he told me. The base is paying attention now, in other words. Everyone else will forget about it come election time. > > \ > > The battle that conservatives are mounting isn’t about Planned Parenthood, and it’s not even really about Boehner, or McConnell for that matter. As Mulvaney told me, the lesson they are taking from the surprising staying power of Donald Trump—that “conservative” who has supported tax hikes, abortion rights, and Democrats in the past—is that the Republican base just wants someone who will fight, anyone and everyone. The September 30 deadline for funding the government is an opportunity to fight, and the fight is what it’s all about. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467.md?page=3)