# They're really gonna do it again. Shutdown 2015! **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 9, 2015, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467 "2015-09-09T22:08:07Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2015, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/41 "2015-09-10T19:46:13Z")
> [@](#): > > In the view of conservatives, Republican leaders have never actually waged the full fight to the bitter end. To broaden our aperture, the true believers in each party always thinks that. Republicans think they lost the White House to Obama twice because they didn’t field a “true conservative.” Democrats consistently think that one of the shortcomings of the party is that it doesn’t embrace progressives – thus all the nonsense about how Bernie Sanders has a shot at the White House if he can survive the dreaded power brokers at the DNC. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2015, 8:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/42 "2015-09-10T20:09:06Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > Please forgive this awful phrase, but one cannot discount that Boehner has to throw red meat to his conservative foes if he wishes to remain Speaker for another two weeks. > > If there aren’t 30 House Republicans who will vote with Boehner, then he is going to have to resign before Columbus Day. Nobody can be Speaker if they can’t manage to get 12% of their caucus to vote with them. He faced the same challenge two years ago, with a smaller majority, hence needing fewer votes. He’s still Speaker, at least in name. Part of the deal is that, as you point out, he has to throw red meat to the base. In this case, that likely extends to _not trying_ to get anyone to sign on to a CR that includes PP funding until the government’s been shut down long enough that GOP House members’ constituents are getting upset and simply want things to go back to normal, and screw the attempt to deny funding to Planned Parenthood. ---
**Author:** ![D\_Anconia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@D\_Anconia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/D_Anconia)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2015, 8:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/43 "2015-09-10T20:36:11Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > It’s an interesting theory, but what does this have to do with what I just said? > Where do I estimate the effect that [healthcare.gov](http://healthcare.gov) had on the election? > > You must be confusing me with someone else. Damned if I know who, though. You, in post #30. > [@2ManyTacos](#): > > The last time there was a shutdown, the GOP looked stupid _at the time,_ but several months later they paid no political price for it. > > I’m a liberal guy, but that’s just the objective thing that actually happened in 2014. To which you replied: > [@RTFirefly](#): > > Yeah, but surely you remember why. > > As the shutdown was ending, the disaster with the [healthcare.gov](http://healthcare.gov) website was the big news, and by the time the website finally got fixed, people had practically forgotten about the shutdown. Me: The last shutdown didn’t hurt the Republicans at election time. Tacos: I was just going to say that. Rufus: Remember why? Disaster at healthcare website caused people to forget about the shutdown. The fact remains, the last shutdown did not hurt the GOP at the next election.\* Bringing up healthcare doesn’t change that fact. Sorry. \*Unless you think Republicans would have won by even larger margins. ---
**Author:** ![D\_Anconia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@D\_Anconia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/D_Anconia)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2015, 8:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/44 "2015-09-10T20:37:42Z")
> [@CaptMurdock](#): > > I’m pretty sure gerrymandering and the lowest voter turnout in 70 years was a bigger factor. How does one gerrymander the Senate? ---
**Author:** ![CaptMurdock](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captmurdock/32/11736_2.png) [@CaptMurdock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaptMurdock)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2015, 12:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/45 "2015-09-11T00:59:44Z")
> [@D\_Anconia](#): > > How does one gerrymander the Senate? One doesn’t. That is where the low turnout comes in. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2015, 1:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/46 "2015-09-11T01:46:44Z")
> [@CaptMurdock](#): > > One doesn’t. That is where the low turnout comes in. Well, it won’t be low in 2016. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2015, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/47 "2015-09-11T16:11:18Z")
> [@D\_Anconia](#): > > Me: The last shutdown didn’t hurt the Republicans at election time. > Tacos: I was just going to say that. > Rufus: Remember why? Disaster at healthcare website caused people to forget about the shutdown. True enough. And then you said: > [@D\_Anconia](#): > > The Republicans took 9(!) seats in the Senate because of the healthcare website. That’s an interesting, um, theory. Again, what’s the connection here? [Healthcare.gov](http://Healthcare.gov) neutralized any effect the shutdown might’ve had on the 2014 midterms. That’s the extent of my claim. I’m not saying that it caused the GOP to win big in 2014. You’re saying I said that, but again, I don’t see how you get that. I’m just saying that it kept the shutdown from _hurting_ them in 2014. ---
**Author:** ![Folacin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/folacin/32/3195_2.png) [@Folacin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Folacin)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2015, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/48 "2015-09-11T18:53:35Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > He faced the same challenge two years ago, with a smaller majority, hence needing fewer votes. He’s still Speaker, at least in name. > > Part of the deal is that, as you point out, he has to throw red meat to the base. In this case, that likely extends to _not trying_ to get anyone to sign on to a CR that includes PP funding until the government’s been shut down long enough that GOP House members’ constituents are getting upset and simply want things to go back to normal, and screw the attempt to deny funding to Planned Parenthood. Part of his problem is that the base is figuring out that the red meat he is throwing is actually Boca burger, which is in part leading to rise of Trump. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2015, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/49 "2015-09-11T19:27:07Z")
> [@Folacin](#): > > Part of his problem is that the base is figuring out that the red meat he is throwing is actually Boca burger Damn, I wish I’d thought of that line. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Ukulele\_Ike](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/df788c/32.png) [@Ukulele\_Ike](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ukulele_Ike)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2015, 10:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/50 "2015-09-11T22:30:09Z")
> [@Folacin](#): > > Part of his problem is that the base is figuring out that the red meat he is throwing is actually Boca burger, which is in part leading to rise of Trump. Shit, it’s taken them long enough to notice, hasn’t it? It’s like Trump is the little dog pulling the curtain aside, making it really tough to ignore that the people in charge of the Republican Party don’t give a rat’s ass about them. ---
**Author:** ![bosbfdsfd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/ba8739/32.png) [@bosbfdsfd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bosbfdsfd)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2015, 6:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/51 "2015-09-12T06:37:02Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Given the lack of any other ideas from the Once-Grand Old Party, they’re going back to a tactic that has worked so well for them in recent years - [shutting down the government](http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/09/09/1419830/-House-Republican-leadership-will-listen-to-the-far-right-wing-in-effort-to-avoid-nbsp-shutdown?showAll=yes), and holding their breath until they turn blue. They may not even be able to avoid it, given all the mandatory funding bills that have to be passed in what little time is left. What happened the last time they shut down the government? Oh yeah, they made their largest Congressional gains in seventy years. Thanks for the “advice,” liberals, but they’ll be taking it from here :): ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2015, 8:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/52 "2015-09-12T08:23:58Z")
**D’Anconia** ’s already run with this line of bullshit. Can you find something new to say? ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2015, 1:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/53 "2015-09-12T13:30:52Z")
Maybe if Tea Party conservatives went a little further and permanently eliminated government, they would win every election. ---
**Author:** ![Stoneburg](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/df705f/32.png) [@Stoneburg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stoneburg)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2015, 1:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/54 "2015-09-12T13:51:53Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > Maybe if Tea Party conservatives went a little further and permanently eliminated government, they would win every election. Yeah, but what would they be elected to? :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2015, 2:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/55 "2015-09-12T14:16:06Z")
GONZALO I’ th’ commonwealth I would by contraries Execute all things. For no kind of traffic Would I admit. No name of magistrate. Letters should not be known. Riches, poverty, And use of service—none. Contract, succession, Bourn, bound of land, tilth, vineyard—none. No use of metal, corn, or wine, or oil. No occupation. All men idle, all. And women too, but innocent and pure. No sovereignty— SEBASTIAN     Yet he would be king on ’t. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2015, 2:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/56 "2015-09-12T14:18:21Z")
> [@Stoneburg](#): > > Yeah, but what would they be elected to? :dubious: In their eyes, it would be a perfect world… ---
**Author:** ![D\_Anconia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@D\_Anconia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/D_Anconia)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2015, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/57 "2015-09-12T16:55:34Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > **D’Anconia** ’s already run with this line of bullshit. Yes, and I was right. IF (pretty big IF right now) the government shuts down in 2015, it won’t have much of an affect on the 2016 elections. The only people who will care are government employees, and so what? National Parks might shut down too, the horror. Can’t get through to the IRS with a question about your return? You can’t get through now, sans shutdown, either. Here in Illinois, we haven’t had a budget since July 1, I believe. We’re still here. A handful of lottery winners with prizes \> $25,000 aren’t getting paid. Big whoop. Oh, and people complain that vendors aren’t getting paid. Guess what? They weren’t being paid in a timely fashion before the current crisis. At my company, payments from the State and its agencies were routinely 9-12 months past due. And it’s been like that for at least five years, that I am personally aware of. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2015, 5:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/58 "2015-09-12T17:32:08Z")
> [@D\_Anconia](#): > > Yes, and I was right. IF (pretty big IF right now) the government shuts down in > 2015, it won’t have much of an affect on the 2016 elections. > > The only people who will care are government employees, and so what? National Parks might shut down too, the horror. Can’t get through to the IRS with a question about your return? You can’t get through now, sans shutdown, either. > > Here in Illinois, we haven’t had a budget since July 1, I believe. We’re still here. A handful of lottery winners with prizes \> $25,000 aren’t getting paid. Big whoop. Oh, and people complain that vendors aren’t getting paid. Guess what? They weren’t being paid in a timely fashion before the current crisis. At my company, payments from the State and its agencies were routinely 9-12 months past due. And it’s been like that for at least five years, that I am personally aware of. Ah, conservative hand waving. It’s so predictable. “Democ-RATS can’t manage anything! Government should be run like a business! Obummer can’t lead anyone!” Then, when the other party is in charge, it’s, “Ah, it’s government. Whaddya gonna do?” ---
**Author:** ![dracoi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/90db22/32.png) [@dracoi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dracoi)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2015, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/59 "2015-09-12T17:40:26Z")
> [@D\_Anconia](#): > > Can’t get through to the IRS with a question about your return? You can’t get through now, sans shutdown, either. Just out of curiosity, do you think that might a result of funding cuts? And that perhaps the lesson to be learned is that less we fund the government the less well it works? ---
**Author:** ![Lobohan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lobohan/32/79_2.png) [@Lobohan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lobohan)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2015, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467/60 "2015-09-12T19:11:30Z")
> [@D\_Anconia](#): > > Yes, and I was right. IF (pretty big IF right now) the government shuts down in > 2015, it won’t have much of an affect on the 2016 elections. > > The only people who will care are government employees, and so what? National Parks might shut down too, the horror. Can’t get through to the IRS with a question about your return? You can’t get through now, sans shutdown, either. > > Here in Illinois, we haven’t had a budget since July 1, I believe. We’re still here. A handful of lottery winners with prizes \> $25,000 aren’t getting paid. Big whoop. Oh, and people complain that vendors aren’t getting paid. Guess what? They weren’t being paid in a timely fashion before the current crisis. At my company, payments from the State and its agencies were routinely 9-12 months past due. And it’s been like that for at least five years, that I am personally aware of. If it doesn’t have an effect on the election, it will be because the GOP base is so angry and ignorant that they will be mobilized by a violent tantrum directed at the administration. This helps because the GOP base isn’t \*embarrassed \*by acting like a shrieking moron. They’re \*excited \*by it. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/theyre-really-gonna-do-it-again-shutdown-2015/730467.md?page=4)