Things A Smart Republican Would Do Now

[Fotheringay-Phipps]

Appropos of my prior post, I’ve dug up a couple of my posts on the subject from previous years:

4/29/09:

@Fotheringay-Phipps

What Obama has going for him in winning a second term is the widespread perception that the economy is in an unprecedented crisis, and the natural fluctuations of the economic cycle. Whatever Obama does for good or for bad, it’s highly unlikely that the economy will be worse in four years then it is now. Obama will say “yes we still have our work cut out for us, but look how far we’ve come under my administration - just give us four more years so we can continue to build on the progress we’ve already made”, and it will make sense to a lot of people.

If I was setting odds, I would say he’s about 80% likely to win in 2012, at this point.

9/1/10:

@Fotheringay-Phipps

Incumbent presidents have the upper hand, in general. Obama in particular is a bright guy with a likeable personality, which is a huge huge advantage, IMO. He’s not too popular now because 1) the economy has not recovered, and 2) he’s spent an enormous amount of money and made huge changes with no apparant positive results.

But the economy goes in cycles. By 2012, it’s likely to be better than it is today regardless of anything Obama does, and Obama will remind everyone again and again that in 2008 we were about to go into a Great Depression due to the Bush policies, until he came along and saved the day. And he’d like to have solved even more of our problems but when you consider how truly disastrous the Bush policies were you realize how far we’ve come. Plus if the Republicans win control of the House, that will be another reason why Obama has not made as much progress as he would like to have, but look how much he’s actually accomplished in the face of these obstacles.

Add it all up and my money is on Obama, regardless of the ideology of whoever runs against him. Though obviously a tea-party oriented person will find it even harder.

Which is exactly how it played out.

So it’s always been pretty clear to me, in any event.