Before modern medicine, there was no correlation between age and mortality. Even without plague, middle aged adults were traumatized because some — sometimes all — of their children had died.
Birth rates were higher, in part, because people needed to have many children to have good chance of having a surviving child.
If people were afraid that the one-third disaster might happen again, birth rates would rise.
If 1/3 die, 1/3 of the innovations needed to address environmental challenges would die with them.
Man, that’s a lot of corpses all at once.
Societies have dealt with “a lot of corpses all at once” before. It’s never been a simultaneous global problem before, but localized disasters wiping out a large fraction of a group have occurred before. People find a way to cope.
I believe that a number of governments would fail. It doesn’t take anything near that catastrophic for coups to take place and/or a meaningful government cease to function in many countries. Most lower income and probably many middle income countries wouldn’t be able to handle it in the short to mid term. A failure of basic services would be the result. Other countries would doubtlessly use the distraction to settle scores and take territory (cough… China… cough). Religious extremists of all stripes would use it as proof that God was upset with the heathens and apostates. All in all, life would be very unpleasant for the survivors in many parts of the world for years.
But it makes a HUGE difference if every place on earth faced the same situation simultaneously. Then there is no outside help coming, which has been key in every survived catastrophe in the modern times.
Also global, interlinked economies, extreme specialization etc. make things way different than ever before, as far as surviving on one’s own is concerned.
No one came to “rescue” Europe from the Black Death. The only reason “outside help” comes today is because modern communications and transportation allows for it. 500 years ago if a catastrophe happened where you were the locals were left on their own, there was no outside help coming.
Of course, that is one reason why death tolls from past disasters tended to be higher than they are today. That’s why in the past a plague would result in open-pit massive graves rather than in our modern world where we try to maintain individual records and graves. And Og only knows the sort of trauma and mental illnesses that arose out of past disasters on top of the physical suffering. It was, undoubtedly, horrible.
True.
Although there are some things individuals can do to mitigate disruptions in modern conveniences and services. Hence why various entities, from crazy preppers on YouTube to the Federal Emergency Management Agency, recommend people keep emergency supplies on hand for various time intervals, and before a hurricane people are advised to do certain things, and so on.
I’ve just looked through the records for the village of Eyam in Derbyshire, which deliberately isolated itself to avoid spreading the disease. Most days only one or two people died, but one day there were eight deaths, and on several occasions there were six or more. This probably meant the gravediggers needed some help on occasion, but the deaths didn’t all happen at once.
I doubt the insurance and similar places would have enough money to pay death benefits.
It would depend on who comprised the third that perished. If were talking about a scenario like the one Thanos created in “Infinity Wars” where it was random, it would hurt because losing a third of our best and most creative minds would have far more of a negative impact than losing a third of, say, the general impoverished population of New Delhi.
I do also feel, however, that reducing the earth’s population by 1/3 would be beneficial overall because the earth is overpopulated.
Your statement assumes that there are no significantly “best and creative minds” in the “general impoverished population”. Perhaps you should reconsider that statement, as talent and intellect are in no way confined to the rich and privileged.
Agreed. However, if there are any potentially valuable minds trapped inside the bodies that are sleeping in the streets, I’m afraid they will never see the light of day anyway. For every Srinivasa Ramanujan that has existed, perhaps a million remained undiscovered simply because of dire circumstances and no opportunity.
I’m not worried about great minds dying. Because I think there are plenty of great minds that are unused today due to lack of opportunity. Famous great minds already suck up a lot of societal oxygen, and some of them dying would open opportunities for others.
No one will have the endurance
To collect on his insurance
Lloyds of London will be loaded when they go!
I guess you completely missed the “modern times” qualification.
In the 1300’s, or the 1500’s, the average Jill and her pals knew how to grow food. In modern times, the average Jane couldn’t feed her family for a week without a paycheck and a grocery store. Exercise the same scenario when it comes to heating, clothing & transportation, and the same gaping difference applies.
Yeah, yeah, Youtube how-to’s and Facebook groups to the rescue, but let’s see how those highways run when every country in the world is experiencing instant megadeaths. And it takes a whole lot more than testing to actually succeed in growing crops for the hungry.
Subsistence farmers in the face of the Black Death, or any other civilization disaster before that, had all the experience, they only lacked working pairs of hands, but then, there were just as many fewer mouths to feed, too.
A third of humanity still leaves lots and lots of people. In the USA only a small fraction are employed in providing food. We can talk all we want about the “fragile supply chain”, when we are getting past just-in-time issues and people simply need to be fed, no I don’t think the ability to do that is going to collapse with a third less people, and all of our resources, machines, and infrastructure intact. Plus leftover resources from those who have died.
Don’t you get it? We are the telephone cleaners! You’ve killed us all!
Aw, come on! You know how repression works and why, don’t you? Now don’t rock the boat, stay calm and all that, OK?
What would happen with money and inflation in this situation? I assume that all of the possessions and money of the dead would go to someone (next of kin, looters, etc.). Wouldn’t this cause massive inflation and unemployment while those “extra” resources get used up?
Yeah. We could not continue in our current culture of cheap fuel, instant gratification of every desire and such. But just about any industry would be able to limp along at 2/3 staffing - until the economy adjusted to train/staff as needed.
Folk would need to get used to fewer choices than they now enjoy.