This election has just changed, Justice Scalia has died

[Steve_MB]

@Jonathan_Chance

But Obama nominates someone and the Senate refuses to vote up or down and it’s an actual honest-to-God explosive campaign issue.

Yep. Time for the GOP to publicly own its petulant Party-Of-NO – hell, it’s party of NONOYOUCAN’TMAKEMEWAAAAA! – role.

[Smapti]

@Sherrerd

Maybe, but I suspect that the right could spin it as The Senate Bravely Defending The Nation Against The Kenyan Muslim Usurper’s attempt to Undermine Our Liberties with a nominee who would be Satan’s Minion.

I believe this is the point in the Jack Chick comic where Obama appoints himself to the Supreme Court, and subsequently rules that True Christians must be imprisoned if they refuse to celebrate gay weddings, and then assigns the Ayatollah and the Grand Prince of the Church of Satan to give speeches in the Capitol about how man came from monkeys and Russia is destined to rule over Israel.

[Frank]

@Leaper

What I find interesting is how the candidates, especially Republican, will answer the inevitable questions of, “will you nominate someone who will do X?” I know they’ve already been asked, but people may pay even more attention to the answers now.

Well, there’s a Republican debate tonight. I imagine we’ll get a first glimpse at how they want to handle such questions.

[Richard_Parker]

Ted Cruz has already vowed to block Obama’s nominee. Not surprising, but I would have thought he’d wait 24 hours.

[rooostra]

What I’ve read is that the longest it has taken to vote on a nomination is 151 days. Obama has 361 days left.

[iiandyiiii]

@rooostra

What I’ve read is that the longest it has taken to vote on a nomination is 151 days. Obama has 361 days left.

That math doesn’t sound exactly right (isn’t it around Jan 20th?), but close enough. Guaranteed that Obama is having late night meetings all weekend to finalize a list, and I think he’ll nominate someone within a matter of weeks.

[Simplicio]

@Exapno_Mapcase

Has any Supreme Court vacancy lasted eleven months since the Civil War?

The fight over replacing Earl Warren took more than a year, and was delayed enough so that the next Prez got to choose his successor.

But Warren had just announced his retirement, not actually left, so he stayed on until the fight was over, and there wasn’t any actual vacancy.

[It_s_Not_Rocket_Surgery]

@Aperez77

The President never has much trouble nominating whoever he wants.

This Senate would block Obama’s order at McDonald’s if they could.

[Frank]

@iiandyiiii

That math doesn’t sound exactly right (isn’t it around Jan 20th?), but close enough. Guaranteed that Obama is having late night meetings all weekend to finalize a list, and I think he’ll nominate someone within a matter of weeks.

I’m certain that a short list already exists, and I don’t think that Obama is so scatter-brained that he hasn’t already given thought to who he would nominate in the case of a vacancy. If by “weeks” you mean two, then I’ll buy that. I won’t be surprised if it’s within a few days of the funeral.

[Leaper]

Ooh, ooh, complete fantasy time: Ginsberg decides to retire in the next month, specifically to force the hand of Congress, knowing that they MIGHT be able to get away with an unprecedented delay for one nominee, but never for two. Obama then goes halfsies and nominates one liberal and one mildly conservative so the Senate can save face.

Question: will ardent conservative voters be satisfied with any answer from their nominee that’s not “I’ll nominate a justice who’ll make gay marriage and abortion illegal forevermore”? Can such a candidate win the general? Can a candidate who waffles or say otherwise get the nomination?

[BrainGlutton]

When does the court’s next session begin? That’s the only real time pressure here.

[Richard_Parker]

@BrainGlutton

When does the court’s next session begin? That’s the only real time pressure here.

They are in session now.

[jasg]

@BrainGlutton

One shudders to think who or what Trump would appoint.

Andrew Napolitano?

[GloryDays]

Obama cannot nominate a social engineering, activist judge. He should probably pick a moderate.

[kaylasdad99]

@Shalmanese

I think the more interesting question is how this affects the Republican calculus and whether electability becomes a more important criteria. As much noise has been made, Clinton was always the strong favorite to become the nominee. However, will this cause a sapping of Trump support in favor of more establishment candidates? I think it’s anyone’s guess at this point.

“Justice Scalia’s death makes it clearer than ever that I must be the next President. My Supreme Court nominations will be the classiest Supreme Court nominations in history. They’ll be HUUUUGE!”

[boytyperanma]

@dalej42

It’ll be quite interesting to see how this affects vulnerable Senators such as Mark Kirk here in Illinois. He’s fighting for his political life and I doubt he wants to be part of an 11 month long obstruction.

This.

The Republicans might not be motivated to replace Scalia but individual Senators certainly are. There are 24 Republican senate seats up for election and only 10 Democratic seats. A year of high profile grid lock is not going to help Republicans win seats. Stopping an Obama nominee isn’t even a guaranteed win. If the Republicans can’t take the Presidency, a Hillary or Sanders nominee will be far less palatable then anyone Obama would put up. Obama’s choices haven’t been far left wing liberals, he’s picked middle of the road people, I expect another in the same vein.

I think there would be a lot less stress for everyone if he had died six months from now and we had better election predictions. I expect things to be drawn out long enough to figure out if blocking will help or hurt the party in the long term. I don’t think blocking is going to help them overall.

[iiandyiiii]

@GloryDays

Obama cannot nominate a social engineering, activist judge.

I agree – he should not nominate activists like Scalia and Thomas.

He should probably pick a moderate.

I hope he picks someone like Kagan or Ginsberg. Deval Patrick might be a great choice.

[Procrustus]

@GloryDays

Obama cannot nominate a social engineering, activist judge. He should probably pick a moderate.

Luckily they are as rare as Unicorns. I’m sure his pick will be a respected judge or lawyer, that the Senate will try to paint as “social engineer, activist.”

[boytyperanma]

@It_s_Not_Rocket_Surgery

This Senate would block Obama’s order at McDonald’s if they could.

Well they might debate that. On one hand it would be Obama getting something he wants on the other it may kill him.

[FlikTheBlue]

Is there any room for a scenario like this?

1. The current Senate obstructs Obama’s nominee to the court.
2. The Democrats take the Senate back.
3. A Republican wins the presidential election.
4. The new Senate confirms the nominee before the end of Obama’s term.