Another thing to consider: How will Thomas know how to vote now?
The realistic question is whether anyone capable of reading the political temperature today would be willing to submit to the months-long beating that would result, with the possibility that a “voluntary” withdrawal might kill any future chances for the Court.
Sheriff Joe Arpaio
This should do wonders for the McConnell/Ryan “A GOP Congress works!” presentation. I would be making the argument that Obama’s role as president is the same whether he was just inaugurated, is in mid-term or is two days away from leaving office – the Constitution doesn’t have a sliding scale of how much “president” you are based on the calendar.
At first glance, I’d think the whole open-seat issue would be more of a winner for Democrats. Hey, public, how did you feel about Citizens United? That was the conservative bloc. How did you feel about gays getting the right to marry? That was the liberal bloc. I guess you could bring up the ACA – oh, yeah, that was decided by Roberts.
His daughter, no doubt.
I almost put a smiley after that but I’m not sure he wouldn’t.
The only way this spring/summer gets more interesting, politically speaking, is if Obama nominates Bill Clinton to replace Scalia.
He didn’t wait 24 minutes from when he heard Scalia was dead to tweet his bullshit.
I think I was beamed into an alternate universe where Republicans were punished for obstructionism, instead of being rewarded handsomely.
Hoo boy.
My fave:
If Trump became President, anyone he’d nominate for Justice would be someone he’d be sure would vote in ways that would favor Trump business concerns. Trump isn’t actually an idealogue–he just plays one for fun and profit. As long as the nominee promises to (say) make it possible for Trump casinos to be built in every state, the Donald wouldn’t care if they were left-wing, right-wing, or chicken-wing.
Cruz would nominate based on evangelical orthodoxy; Carson’s nominee would have Carson’s own brand of that orthodoxy. Rubio would make passes in that direction but would be more concerned with getting his nomination through, so might not nominate a real fire-breather. Bush and Kasich would go for someone with rightist social values, but would care more than Cruz and Rubio that the nominee be Big-Business-friendly.
Sanders would nominate flagrant leftists. Clinton would nominate pretty much the same sort of people that Obama has nominated.
Assuming he only looks within the federal judiciary, how many are there?
You have a good point; Sanders would have to compromise amongst the existing possibilities.
Perfect.
The nominee is not constitutionally required to be a federal judge, but it’s traditional, and we saw what happened to Harriet Miers.
Question: can Obama wait until there is a recess in the Senate, then make a recess appointment to the Supreme Court that the Senate cannot block until the new Senate convenes in January? That should be enough time for states to pass campaign finance reform laws that the new court could uphold (“we need to reconsider Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission”).
Per Jake Tapper and Larry Sabato on Twitter, “sources state” that Obama will nominate a replacement, setting up a fight with the Senate.
This weekend is the 10th anniversary of when Dick Cheney shot Harry Whittington in Texas while quail hunting.
Scalia died this weekend while in Texas for quail hunting.
(Anyone seen Cheney? When last spotted he was saying something about “time to feed again”. )
I would not be okay with this. That is some weak tea, trading a liberal and a conservative for a liberal and a “mildly conservative”.
This I could definitely go for.
I note with cynical amusement that the battle lines are drawn before the body is even cold. Mitch McConnell has already issued a statement that the next President should make the nomination. Harry Reid, obviously, disagrees.
I take the position that Obama is POTUS, and he gets to make the nomination. The Senate should confirm any reasonable nomination–but I doubt that will happen.
The jester in me wonders what might happen if Obama were to nominate Hillary Clinton for shits and giggles.
The pragmatist in me thinks Obama will manage to get a left leaning moderate confirmed, but the next administration will get to replace Ginsberg–and that will be the key nomination. A GOP POTUS could and likely would use the Ginsberg spot to restore the current status quo. A Dem POTUS could and likely would replace Ginsberg with a hardcore lefty, locking in a new liberal court for the long term.
We live in interesting times.
There is zero political upside for Senate Republicans to confirm an Obama nominee, and tremendous negative consequences. Doing so would validate everything Trump and Cruz are saying about the GOP establishment.
Both sides have always seen 2016 as an election dependent on turnout, and an open Supreme Court seat is as big a rallying cry as the Republicans could hope for (and the Democrats, for that matter).