# This is all very well and good, but how can the Egyptian people overthrow their own army? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 4, 2011, 3:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/this-is-all-very-well-and-good-but-how-can-the-egyptian-people-overthrow-their-own-army/570153 "2011-02-04T15:37:35Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 13\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2011, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/this-is-all-very-well-and-good-but-how-can-the-egyptian-people-overthrow-their-own-army/570153/21 "2011-02-11T16:35:44Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Superpower. Look it up. > > To be fair, from a liberal POV, a big army can also be a pretty good jobs program. It might be equivalent to paying a man to dig holes and fill them up again, but, as Keynes pointed out, there are times where that makes sense. Fixing the infrastructure ,which is crumbling, would be paying people to provide a service to the country. The military ,in many ways, exists to increase its power and sway in the political arena. They are constantly pushing for more programs that deplete the general welfare. Creating guns and weapons is not the same as building roads and bridges. Bombs just explode and leave trace elements that poison the earth. A bridge , a clean water system .a solar array and other constructions could benefit the whole of society, for generations to come. ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2011, 4:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/this-is-all-very-well-and-good-but-how-can-the-egyptian-people-overthrow-their-own-army/570153/22 "2011-02-11T16:42:07Z")
> [@mlees](#): > > I am not as familiar with the subject as you appear to be. > > Are you implying that the US Administration believes that the regular voter in Egypt would be in favor of repleaing any Egyptian-Isreali peace accords? > > Is the US foreign aid to Egypt the only lever it has on the Egyptian military? It doesn’t even have that as the Saudi’s have warned they’ll just replace it. And there’s the Chinese always looking for new friends. And if the people feel Israel hasn’t held its side of the bargain (which I understand included ‘play fair with the Palestinians’ clauses) then why not repeal it? ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2011, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/this-is-all-very-well-and-good-but-how-can-the-egyptian-people-overthrow-their-own-army/570153/23 "2011-02-11T16:46:48Z")
> [@mlees](#): > > Are you implying that the US Administration believes that the regular voter in Egypt would be in favor of repleaing any Egyptian-Isreali peace accords? Here is at least one data-point indicating the protesters themselves are not in favor of repealing the Israel peace accord: [http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the\_daily\_dish/2011/02/this-is-not-an-islamic-uprising.html](http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2011/02/this-is-not-an-islamic-uprising.html) A related point from that poll: only 15% support the Muslim Brotherhood, and their leaders got 1% in a presidential straw poll. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2011, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/this-is-all-very-well-and-good-but-how-can-the-egyptian-people-overthrow-their-own-army/570153/24 "2011-02-12T20:29:52Z")
Here’s the political problem: One of the clear grievances of the Egyptian demonstrators is the excessive wealth and power of the elite. The top military brass are part of that, deeply part of it, and the military as such apparently has a lot of business interests (something I’ve heard mentioned and never contradicted in Egypt-related threads, but I don’t know any details, nor whether any line can be drawn between the military’s business interests and the officers’). The brass now rule, and if they do carry through a transition to civil democracy, we may be sure they will do so in such a way that their own wealth and privileges are intact at the end of the process. But, if it is a democracy, how long will the people stand for that? But what happens if they try to do anything about it? ---
**Author:** ![Peremensoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ce7236/32.png) [@Peremensoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peremensoe)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2011, 8:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/this-is-all-very-well-and-good-but-how-can-the-egyptian-people-overthrow-their-own-army/570153/25 "2011-02-12T20:48:20Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Here’s the political problem: One of the clear grievances of the Egyptian demonstrators is the excessive wealth and power of the elite. The top military brass are part of that…if they do carry through a transition to civil democracy, we may be sure they will do so in such a way that their own wealth and privileges are intact at the end of the process. But, if it is a democracy, how long will the people stand for that? I don’t think it will be a problem at all, as long as an open and inclusive process is allowed to go ahead on the constitution and elections, and the military doesn’t do anything to damage their present standing in Egyptian society. Looking around, it seems that people only have _serious_ objections to the wealth and power of the elite when they feel that economic opportunity, personal freedom, and political participation are broadly denied to common folk. Give people a measure of all those things, or even two of the three, and they will generally accept the existence of a privileged class above them. ---
**Author:** ![even\_sven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/dfb087/32.png) [@even\_sven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/even_sven)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2011, 9:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/this-is-all-very-well-and-good-but-how-can-the-egyptian-people-overthrow-their-own-army/570153/26 "2011-02-12T21:04:50Z")
I agree. It’s not that people are upset that they cannot be elite- they are upset that they cannot be middle class. The people who are the most restless are educated young people who are stagnant and under-employed because of the current order. They know that Egypt is capable of being a much more modern and prosperous nation than it currently is, and they would like to see that happen. They want cars or at least nice motorcycles, not yachts. A speaker at my school on this subject pointed something out to me- the US has a very prosperous and privileged military elite. Defense contractors, in particular, live as high on the hog as you can get. In other words, you can have a democracy that still has a privileged military. The military does not have to lose in order for democracy to win. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2011, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/this-is-all-very-well-and-good-but-how-can-the-egyptian-people-overthrow-their-own-army/570153/27 "2011-02-12T21:42:35Z")
> [@even\_sven](#): > > They know that Egypt is capable of being a much more modern and prosperous nation than it currently is . . . Well, how? That is, how has the Mubarak regime been holding it back? ---
**Author:** ![Punoqllads](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/d2c977/32.png) [@Punoqllads](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Punoqllads)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2011, 8:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/this-is-all-very-well-and-good-but-how-can-the-egyptian-people-overthrow-their-own-army/570153/28 "2011-02-13T08:57:07Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Well, how? That is, how has the Mubarak regime been holding it back? By [some estimates](http://www.mirror.co.uk/2011/02/13/calls-to-freeze-billions-of-deposed-hosni-mubarak-s-uk-assets-115875-22919092/), there are 70 billion reasons why. 43.5b pounds = 70b dollars ---
**Author:** ![wmfellows](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/c2a13f/32.png) [@wmfellows](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wmfellows)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2011, 10:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/this-is-all-very-well-and-good-but-how-can-the-egyptian-people-overthrow-their-own-army/570153/29 "2011-02-13T10:51:12Z")
> [@Punoqllads](#): > > By [some estimates](http://www.mirror.co.uk/2011/02/13/calls-to-freeze-billions-of-deposed-hosni-mubarak-s-uk-assets-115875-22919092/), there are 70 billion reasons why. > > 43.5b pounds = 70b dollars That 70 billion figure has been widely scoffed at already. We shouldn’t be spreading _ **ignorance** _ by repeating figures that are not considered credible. In any case, I am with BG here. In my experience in African business, the reasons for lack of progress run far fr deeper than a single dictator and skimming. Lack of productivity, poor human capital (bad schooling), bad work habits, nepotism (not just at the big boys level but all the way down, deep in the culture), etc. People don’t like to blame themselves, so it’s the dictator. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2011, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/this-is-all-very-well-and-good-but-how-can-the-egyptian-people-overthrow-their-own-army/570153/30 "2011-02-13T18:37:50Z")
> [@Punoqllads](#): > > By [some estimates](http://www.mirror.co.uk/2011/02/13/calls-to-freeze-billions-of-deposed-hosni-mubarak-s-uk-assets-115875-22919092/), there are 70 billion reasons why. > > 43.5b pounds = 70b dollars Egypt’s GDP is $496.6 billion a year. That size fortune leeched over 30 years wouldn’t make a noticeable difference. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2011, 7:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/this-is-all-very-well-and-good-but-how-can-the-egyptian-people-overthrow-their-own-army/570153/31 "2011-02-13T19:10:18Z")
Well the ruling [Supreme Council of the Armed Forces](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Council_of_the_Armed_Forces) [just suspended the Constitution and dissolved Parliament.](http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-egypt-aftermath-20110214,0,4259980.story) Neither of which had any credibility anyway. But under what constitution, if any, are elections to be held now? ---
**Author:** ![Dick\_Dastardly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c4cdca/32.png) [@Dick\_Dastardly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dick_Dastardly)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2011, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/this-is-all-very-well-and-good-but-how-can-the-egyptian-people-overthrow-their-own-army/570153/32 "2011-02-14T18:18:32Z")
> [@Lumpy](#): > > The Egyptian people can’t overthrow their army. What the protesters are doing is essentially going on strike against the civil order. Now sure the army could send in tanks and machine guns and clear the streets, but they can’t make the populace shut up and go back to business as usual. > > My guess is that what will eventually happen is that Mubarak goes and is replaced by someone vetted by the military-political apparatus. The apparatus will hand off the presidency to a new face every five-seven years but each will be a caretaker for the ruling party. Some token opposition parties will be allowed as long as they never win any elections. Some people will be charged with corruption, mainly as a method of being discredited by their political opponents. IOW a quasi-democracy, something like the current status quo in Pakistan. > > The question will then be, what will the Egyptian people do when Mubarak is gone and very little changes? You’ve got a military that have had sixty years of building a situation that does them very nicely indeed. All the top guys were well looked after by Mubarak during their service, they left the army to top jobs in industry or part of some business that was guaranteed to make them money. And obviuosly a lot of corruption went on, stuff that some future civilian government could potentially lock them up for. So you’ve got a bunch of guys with a past running the show and wanting to keep their skeletons in the cupboard. You’ve got America and Saudi throwing boatloads of money at these guys one way or another to keep the status quo pretty much together. Bot on the other side you’ve got the Egyptian people. Unless the army are going to crack down on the protestors, arrest all the ringleaders indefinitely etc. in a manner that would make Mubarak look like a moderate democrat, you’re going to get the same kind of mass reaction if the military try and keep a lid on things. It’s going to be almost impossible for the military to govern the country if they don’t open up to reforms. And if they try and hold an election that isn’t fair there’ll be a huge uprising. I would guess however due to the reasons I already mentioned that they’ll fight every step of the way and will try and hold onto as much of the power structure that they have now. But they will have to allow far more reforms than they’d dieally want or they’ll be facing the same kind of protests. If they do they’ll have to give in or go for the Tiannamen Square option. ---
**Author:** ![Dick\_Dastardly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c4cdca/32.png) [@Dick\_Dastardly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dick_Dastardly)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2011, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/this-is-all-very-well-and-good-but-how-can-the-egyptian-people-overthrow-their-own-army/570153/33 "2011-02-14T18:23:43Z")
> [@mlees](#): > > I am not as familiar with the subject as you appear to be. > > Are you implying that the US Administration believes that the regular voter in Egypt would be in favor of repleaing any Egyptian-Isreali peace accords? > > Is the US foreign aid to Egypt the only lever it has on the Egyptian military? Yes, they’ll be worried that a democratic Egyptian government will push for Israel to end the blockade of Gaza, stop enforcing the Egyptian part of it, push for an end to the Israeli oppression of Palestinians, etc. etc. Whether they actually repeal the treaty doesn’t matter so much, they can focus attention on what Israel are doing in the Palestinian teritories in a way that America doesn’t want. US aid to Egypt is all military as far as I’m aware. $1.5 billion a year buys you a hell of a big lever. America knows the history of all the top Egyptian military guys too, what corruption they’ve been involved in, how nice they’ve been to Israel behind closed doors etc. too. They know where to bodies are buried. But it wouldn’t come down to that, it’s all about the Benjamins. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/this-is-all-very-well-and-good-but-how-can-the-egyptian-people-overthrow-their-own-army/570153.md?page=1)