# This is the thought that keeps me up at night.... Am I wrong? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [December 19, 2019, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/this-is-the-thought-that-keeps-me-up-at-night-am-i-wrong/845089 "2019-12-19T16:12:34Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![cmosdes](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/a587f6/32.png) [@cmosdes](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cmosdes)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2019, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/this-is-the-thought-that-keeps-me-up-at-night-am-i-wrong/845089/21 "2019-12-19T20:56:16Z")
> [@What\_Exit](#): > > In 1992 he got less than 50% of the vote, but he did have the highest percentage. > Clinton had 43.0%, Bush had 37.4% and Perot pulled 18.9%. However, Clinton also got 370 electoral votes to Bush’s 168 and only 18 states. It was not in any way a close election, unlike Trump’s. Gotcha. It depends on what the definition of “win” is. 🙂 I saw E-DUB’s message after I posted, but thanks for clarifying. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [December 20, 2019, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/this-is-the-thought-that-keeps-me-up-at-night-am-i-wrong/845089/22 "2019-12-20T20:18:30Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > I don’t think Trump needs to start a war. In [Dec 2011, Obama’s approval rating was 42%](https://news.gallup.com/poll/116479/barack-obama-presidential-job-approval.aspx) (Trump’s is 45%). Obama didn’t need to start any wars to get re-elected in 2012. Clinton is another example - maybe a better one, because he also didn’t win the popular vote. His approval ratings went up when he was impeached. If he had been allowed to run in 2000, he probably would have won. > > The economy is roaring along, and Trump is the incumbent. It’s by no means a lock, but his chances of re-election are far from dismal. > > Regards, > Shodan This is cherry picking. At this point in his administration, Obama was at the Nadir of his approval, but before an after this time he went up higher, so that he was above water (net +8) by the time the election rolled around. For Trump, other than a 30 day honeymoon period has basically been flat. Peoples minds are made up and there is nothing anyone can do to change them. Trumps approval will be somewhere in the 40-45 range when the election comes around with a net approval of minus 10-15. The only question will be whether even this level of low approval is enough to win when you take into account, 1. The structural advantage of the electoral college 2. The likely low approval ratings of the Democratic candidate after the Republican/Russian mud machine is through with him/her 3. The nationwide dirty tricks playbook to disenfranchise Democratic voters. ---
**Author:** ![Senegoid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senegoid/32/6606_2.png) [@Senegoid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Senegoid)\ **Post date:** [December 20, 2019, 8:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/this-is-the-thought-that-keeps-me-up-at-night-am-i-wrong/845089/23 "2019-12-20T20:59:23Z")
I would not at all put it beyond Trump to engineer some sort of Reichstag Fire in some form. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [December 20, 2019, 10:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/this-is-the-thought-that-keeps-me-up-at-night-am-i-wrong/845089/24 "2019-12-20T22:21:18Z")
The difference is that the USA isn’t like post WWI Germany. We’re not looking for scapegoats. Sure, there’s old people watching Fox News that’ll blame immigrants or Muslims for everything but Trump has their vote. I do find it interesting you mentioned the Chicago loop. During all the screaming from the ‘progressives’ about Buttigieg’s NDA, I took a second look at the one I had to sign when my Loop job was eliminated a couple months ago. 90% of it was security stuff since I worked next to the Sears Tower. As a rare person with a 24 hour pass, I knew all the back entrances and elevator codes that might be useful for someone up to no good. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [December 20, 2019, 11:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/this-is-the-thought-that-keeps-me-up-at-night-am-i-wrong/845089/25 "2019-12-20T23:58:37Z")
> [@Buck\_Godot](#): > > 1. The structural advantage of the electoral college > 2. The likely low approval ratings of the Democratic candidate after the Republican/Russian mud machine is through with him/her > 3. The nationwide dirty tricks playbook to disenfranchise Democratic voters. It depends on third party runs, too. There’s a pretty decent chance Tulsi Gabbard runs a Russia-backed campaign to peel votes off the Democratic candidate. ---
**Author:** ![margin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/65b543/32.png) [@margin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/margin)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2019, 12:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/this-is-the-thought-that-keeps-me-up-at-night-am-i-wrong/845089/26 "2019-12-21T00:25:26Z")
> [@What\_Exit](#): > > All I can say is I don’t think a 9/11 style attack would help Trump win. It would make him look weak and like a failure to the independent/middle votes. Question is, do any of the Democratic candidates inspire us as a person that will increase the safety of the US? > > I think this would help the more centrist Dems like Biden, Bloomberg or Buttigieg. It would probably make things harder for Warren or Sanders. (I’m ignoring the rest of the field that has been in it for months and are polling below 5%) Look at how he treated Puerto Rico. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2019, 1:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/this-is-the-thought-that-keeps-me-up-at-night-am-i-wrong/845089/27 "2019-12-21T01:38:43Z")
> [@margin](#): > > Look at how he treated Puerto Rico. Sorry, I don’t follow. I think we’re talking about Hurricane Maria? That was a natural disaster that he fumbled, it isn’t a terrorist strike. Letting down the US citizens of PR doesn’t touch his base or those ignorant and not knowing PR residents are US citizens. It barely moved his support at all and in no lasting way. I can’t figure out how that equates to a terrorist strike. I don’t believe a terrorist strike will favor him. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2019, 2:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/this-is-the-thought-that-keeps-me-up-at-night-am-i-wrong/845089/28 "2019-12-21T02:48:12Z")
He only knows what his gun toting red neck supporters like. G-d knows what he will do if the Senate votes him out, or he is not re-elected. I can imagine refusing to leave the White House, or trashing it and moving into a Trump Hotel or his joint in Florida. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2019, 5:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/this-is-the-thought-that-keeps-me-up-at-night-am-i-wrong/845089/29 "2019-12-21T05:34:41Z")
> [@Damuri\_Ajashi](#): > > Putin doesn’t give a shit who wins as long as there is a deep division in America and we leave him alone to try and reconstitute the USSR. Indeed. A close election, ideally a heavily disputed one, serves this end better than trying to false-flag Trump to a clear victory. A good messy public display of Trump being dragged from the White House on January 20, 2021 would fit this nicely. I suppose encouraging some white nationalist groups to violence through the use of internet trolling is about as involved as Putin/Russia has to get. And if Trump (barely) wins, encourage his followers to gloat about it every chance they get and seize the opportunity to backlash everything in sight in the name of “taking back” America. Trump’s already a chaotic personality; Putin can just nudge America to follow suit, abandon/alienate NATO, and then proceed to rebuild the Russian empire. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2019, 6:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/this-is-the-thought-that-keeps-me-up-at-night-am-i-wrong/845089/30 "2019-12-21T06:11:42Z")
> [@Lamoral](#): > > Do you think Trump is _not_ aware that winning the popular vote doesn’t matter? > > Yeah, there hasn’t been a “triumph” _in your opinion._ (To a lot of voters, regrettably, watching the left melt down over Trump’s presidency is a triumph enough.) But there also hasn’t been a calamity. I am aware that there are people who believe that Trump is the greatest President ever. But those people do not constitute a majority. If Trump wants to get re-elected, he needs to attract voters from outside his base. And I don’t feel he is doing that. If anything, he has probably lost voters who he had in 2016. Even as a Republican, Trump needs to be at least a close second to be declared the winner. And considering Trump is currently being impeached, I have to ask how bad you think things need to be to qualify as a calamity? Even if he’s not convicted, it’s hardly a sign that things are going well. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2019, 6:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/this-is-the-thought-that-keeps-me-up-at-night-am-i-wrong/845089/31 "2019-12-21T06:48:49Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > I am aware that there are people who believe that Trump is the greatest President ever. But those people do not constitute a majority. They don’t constitute a majority of the electorate at large but they DO constitute a majority of votes in the Electoral College. And in our current system, that is ALL that matters. Surely you know Trump could actually get fewer votes than in 2016 but still win because of how the EC skews things? Adding 5 million angry progressive voters in each of NY, CA and IL and Trump will **still** get elected as long as he manages to carry the same states in 2020. And he won most of those states by such huge margins he could have less turnout and still win in most of them. The fact he is likely to pick up a couple states like MN and NH that were close but went to HRC doesn’t inspire much confidence that he will lose. ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2019, 8:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/this-is-the-thought-that-keeps-me-up-at-night-am-i-wrong/845089/32 "2019-12-21T08:35:55Z")
> [@Bryan\_Ekers](#): > > Indeed. A close election, ideally a heavily disputed one, serves this end better than trying to false-flag Trump to a clear victory. A good messy public display of Trump being dragged from the White House on January 20, 2021 would fit this nicely. I suppose encouraging some white nationalist groups to violence through the use of internet trolling is about as involved as Putin/Russia has to get. > > And if Trump (barely) wins, encourage his followers to gloat about it every chance they get and seize the opportunity to backlash everything in sight in the name of “taking back” America. **Trump’s already a chaotic personality** ; Putin can just nudge America to follow suit, abandon/alienate NATO, and then proceed to rebuild the Russian empire. No need to mince words. He’s already a Chaotic _Evil_ personality… ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2019, 9:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/this-is-the-thought-that-keeps-me-up-at-night-am-i-wrong/845089/33 "2019-12-21T09:20:40Z")
You know who the \*real \*victims here are? The terrorists. All they want to do is strike a violent blow in service to their cause but now no matter what they do or when they do it, everyone will assume they’re part of some kind of _conspiracy_ with the credit given to someone else entirely. It’s getting to the point of them having to ask if they should even bother. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2019, 3:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/this-is-the-thought-that-keeps-me-up-at-night-am-i-wrong/845089/34 "2019-12-21T15:03:00Z")
Surprised nobody has mentioned the Wag the Dog idea where Trump creates a war to distract people. I can see him invading Iran to boost his re-election campaign. ---
**Author:** ![E-DUB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/e-dub/32/403_2.png) [@E-DUB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-DUB)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2019, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/this-is-the-thought-that-keeps-me-up-at-night-am-i-wrong/845089/35 "2019-12-21T15:41:31Z")
> [@Bryan\_Ekers](#): > > You know who the \*real \*victims here are? The terrorists. All they want to do is strike a violent blow in service to their cause but now no matter what they do or when they do it, everyone will assume they’re part of some kind of _conspiracy_ with the credit given to someone else entirely. It’s getting to the point of them having to ask if they should even bother. The Onion beat you to that one. [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/Q_OIXfkXEj0/hqdefault.jpg "'9/11 Conspiracy Theories Ridiculous' - Al Qaeda") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q_OIXfkXEj0) ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2019, 6:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/this-is-the-thought-that-keeps-me-up-at-night-am-i-wrong/845089/36 "2019-12-21T18:15:42Z")
> [@Bijou\_Drains](#): > > Surprised nobody has mentioned the Wag the Dog idea where Trump creates a war to distract people. I can see him invading Iran to boost his re-election campaign. Please explain how, after Iraq and Afghanistan, an invasion of Iran would even remotely boost Trump’s popularity. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2019, 6:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/this-is-the-thought-that-keeps-me-up-at-night-am-i-wrong/845089/37 "2019-12-21T18:50:35Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Please explain how, after Iraq and Afghanistan, an invasion of Iran would even remotely boost Trump’s popularity. well it is not logical but I think it will boost him. Rally round the flag always worked in the past. He may not even use many ground troops so it would not be full scale war, just bombs and missiles. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2019, 7:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/this-is-the-thought-that-keeps-me-up-at-night-am-i-wrong/845089/38 "2019-12-21T19:14:45Z")
> [@Bijou\_Drains](#): > > Surprised nobody has mentioned the Wag the Dog idea where Trump creates a war to distract people. I can see him invading Iran to boost his re-election campaign. A la Cheney, Mike Pence could warn us against changing horses in mid stream. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2019, 7:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/this-is-the-thought-that-keeps-me-up-at-night-am-i-wrong/845089/39 "2019-12-21T19:20:22Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Please explain how, after Iraq and Afghanistan, an invasion of Iran would even remotely boost Trump’s popularity. There are quite a few testosterone poisoned guys in my area who would get off on the USA being in a “real, shooting war”. ---
**Author:** ![Lamoral](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lamoral/32/16078_2.png) [@Lamoral](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamoral)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2019, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/this-is-the-thought-that-keeps-me-up-at-night-am-i-wrong/845089/40 "2019-12-21T19:28:48Z")
“Quite a few” isn’t enough to make this politically feasible. The military is sick of deployments. Their families are sick of deployments. Trump very successfully spun himself as the anti-war candidate and it worked; the right wing is now, in the main, non-interventionist and isolationist. The warmongers like John Bolton proved incompatible with his administration. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/this-is-the-thought-that-keeps-me-up-at-night-am-i-wrong/845089.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/this-is-the-thought-that-keeps-me-up-at-night-am-i-wrong/845089.md?page=3)