# Those "Guess How Many X's Are in the Jar" Games - Is There a Trick?
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/those-guess-how-many-xs-are-in-the-jar-games-is-there-a-trick/464852
**Category:** Factual Questions
**Created:** [September 23, 2008, 4:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/those-guess-how-many-xs-are-in-the-jar-games-is-there-a-trick/464852 "2008-09-23T16:26:57Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 2
### Author:  [@AdmiralCrunch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AdmiralCrunch)
#### Post date: [September 24, 2008, 4:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/those-guess-how-many-xs-are-in-the-jar-games-is-there-a-trick/464852/21 "2008-09-24T04:08:14Z")
> [@HeyHomie](#):
>
> I pulled it out of my ass.
According to my calculations, you have an asshole the size of Manhattan.
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### Author:  [@Attack\_from\_the\_3rd\_dimension](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Attack_from_the_3rd_dimension)
#### Post date: [September 24, 2008, 4:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/those-guess-how-many-xs-are-in-the-jar-games-is-there-a-trick/464852/22 "2008-09-24T04:14:47Z")
> [@Santo\_Rugger](#):
>
> The packing efficiency of M&Ms is 73.5, and you can fit about 7,500 is a 5 liter flask.
> [http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/4738/title/Candy\_Science\_M%2BMs\_pack\_more\_tightly\_than\_spheres](http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/4738/title/Candy_Science_M%2BMs_pack_more_tightly_than_spheres)
Amazing that you found this. Where can I apply for work as an M&M imager?
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### Author:  [@GuanoLad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GuanoLad)
#### Post date: [September 24, 2008, 4:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/those-guess-how-many-xs-are-in-the-jar-games-is-there-a-trick/464852/23 "2008-09-24T04:15:29Z")
Surely “packing efficiency” would only count towards a _volume_ calculation, and not an _array_ calculation.
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### Author:  [@Santo\_Rugger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Santo_Rugger)
#### Post date: [September 24, 2008, 5:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/those-guess-how-many-xs-are-in-the-jar-games-is-there-a-trick/464852/24 "2008-09-24T05:28:06Z")
> [@Attack\_from\_the\_3rd\_dimension](#):
>
> Amazing that you found this. Where can I apply for work as an M&M imager?
I read this as, “Where can I apply for work as an M&M engineer.” No clue for either of them, though. 😉
I read that link quite a time ago, it’s one of those things that just sticks in your head. I may have posted about it, if the search function was working I’d try to find the thread. There was an accompanying article that was a bit more scientific, but I can’t seem to find the link for that one anymore.
> [@GuanoLad](#):
>
> Surely “packing efficiency” would only count towards a _volume_ calculation, and not an _array_ calculation.
Huh?
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### Author:  [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)
#### Post date: [September 24, 2008, 5:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/those-guess-how-many-xs-are-in-the-jar-games-is-there-a-trick/464852/25 "2008-09-24T05:35:48Z")
> [@Askance](#):
>
> That will only be correct if the jar is a rectangular prism, which is a bit unusual … is it?
That’s what I thought when I read this.
A math approach may be to count the M&M around the bottom giving you the circumference. Square this then multiply this by the height and divide by 4pi. I don’t think this would have to be multiplied by 0.74.
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### Author:  [@Colophon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colophon)
#### Post date: [September 24, 2008, 10:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/those-guess-how-many-xs-are-in-the-jar-games-is-there-a-trick/464852/26 "2008-09-24T10:04:42Z")
> [@Santo\_Rugger](#):
>
> Huh?
\*\*GuanoLad \*\*was saying what **JoeyP** said, i.e.
> [@](#):
>
> Wouldn’t the packing efficiency have been ‘automatically’ calculated when you counted the number of m&m’s on each side? My understanding of packing efficiency is that would use it if you found the volume of an m&m and divided it into the volume of the container, then multiply by the packing efficiency.
And I think they are right. If you are counting how many M&Ms are present in a given direction, then that _is_ how they are packed, so you don’t need to factor in a packing efficiency.
The packing efficiency figure describes how much of the total volume available can be taken up by M&M’s. If you assume 74%, then you would:
1. Calculate volume of jar
2. Multiply volume of jar by 0.74
3. Divide the result by the volume of one M&M.
4. Profit!!!
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### Author:  [@HeyHomie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HeyHomie)
#### Post date: [September 26, 2008, 7:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/those-guess-how-many-xs-are-in-the-jar-games-is-there-a-trick/464852/27 "2008-09-26T19:34:32Z")
> [@HeyHomie](#):
>
> My workplace is giving a prize for whoever can provide the closest guess (without going over) as to how many M & M’s are in what looks like a 2-quart jar.
I won. 🆒
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### Author:  [@Ponderoid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ponderoid)
#### Post date: [September 26, 2008, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/those-guess-how-many-xs-are-in-the-jar-games-is-there-a-trick/464852/28 "2008-09-26T20:06:34Z")
> [@HeyHomie](#):
>
> I won. 🆒
So what was your guess, what was the actual number, and how close were your nearest competitors? Did anyone go over? What did you win?
\*\*\* Ponder
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### Author:  [@SmellMyWort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SmellMyWort)
#### Post date: [September 26, 2008, 8:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/those-guess-how-many-xs-are-in-the-jar-games-is-there-a-trick/464852/29 "2008-09-26T20:47:34Z")
The Dope triumphs!!!
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### Author:  [@Santo\_Rugger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Santo_Rugger)
#### Post date: [September 26, 2008, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/those-guess-how-many-xs-are-in-the-jar-games-is-there-a-trick/464852/30 "2008-09-26T21:12:34Z")
> [@Colophon](#):
>
> \*\*GuanoLad \*\*was saying what **JoeyP** said, i.e.
>
> And I think they are right. If you are counting how many M&Ms are present in a given direction, then that _is_ how they are packed, so you don’t need to factor in a packing efficiency.
>
> The packing efficiency figure describes how much of the total volume available can be taken up by M&M’s. If you assume 74%, then you would:
>
> 1. Calculate volume of jar
>
> 2. Multiply volume of jar by 0.74
>
> 3. Divide the result by the volume of one M&M.
>
> 4. Profit!!!
Yeah, that makes sense. It’s probably be best to do each direction three times and average (or use the middle) result to account for randomness.
Congrats, **Homie!** I’ll take my fee in M&Ms, please! 😉
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### Author:  [@KneadToKnow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KneadToKnow)
#### Post date: [September 26, 2008, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/those-guess-how-many-xs-are-in-the-jar-games-is-there-a-trick/464852/31 "2008-09-26T21:15:13Z")
Wait a minute!
There’s no _x_ in _jar_.
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### Author:  [@Yllaria](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Yllaria)
#### Post date: [September 26, 2008, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/those-guess-how-many-xs-are-in-the-jar-games-is-there-a-trick/464852/32 "2008-09-26T21:23:45Z")
> [@Chez\_Guevara](#):
>
> An M&M inserted into the rectum might melt on the inside but would it melt on the outside? I thought the product required saliva to break down the outer shell and release the chocolate from within.
>
> Regrettably I don’t have either an M&M or a proctoscope about my person right now, so we must await the arrival of a rectoconfectobiologist who, hopefully, can get to the bottom of this matter without further delay.
My experience with M&Ms that were warmed in the packet (they don’t stay in my hand long enough to get warm there) is that the heat expansion of the chocolate ruptures the candy shell, which is then further displaced by the flow of the melted chocolate. I’m guessing that this happens because the shell does not expand as much with heat, and because the shell shape is weak when force is applied from inside.
Even if it didn’t rupture from the expansion of the chocolate, an M&M with a melted chocolate interior would have very little structural integrity. The slightest pressure and it will break and smear. Those shells just aren’t that strong without the solid chocolate to back them up.
Sorry for the hijack\*\* HeyHomie\*\*. Congratulations on your win. May your estimating skills ever increase.
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### Author:  [@Santo\_Rugger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Santo_Rugger)
#### Post date: [September 26, 2008, 9:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/those-guess-how-many-xs-are-in-the-jar-games-is-there-a-trick/464852/33 "2008-09-26T21:54:54Z")
> [@KneadToKnow](#):
>
> Wait a minute!
>
> There’s no _x_ in _jar_.
Then how are we going to get the elephant in there? 😃
[spoiler]How do you fit an elephant into a Safeway bag?
Take the _S_ out of _Safe_ and the _f_ out of _way_.
There’s no _f_ in _way_![/spoiler]
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### Author:  [@Yeticus\_Rex](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Yeticus_Rex)
#### Post date: [September 27, 2008, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/those-guess-how-many-xs-are-in-the-jar-games-is-there-a-trick/464852/34 "2008-09-27T00:42:46Z")
For any uniform shape or volume, just fill up a known volume container with items in question (M&Ms, jelly bellys, etc) to the line and then fill the rest with water. Quickly separate the two mediums with a strainer and measure the water. Then solve for the packing efficiency. Repeat several times to get a more precise P.E. Then apply that P.E. to the container in question.
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### Author:  [@Joey\_P](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Joey_P)
#### Post date: [September 27, 2008, 4:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/those-guess-how-many-xs-are-in-the-jar-games-is-there-a-trick/464852/35 "2008-09-27T04:03:22Z")
> [@KneadToKnow](#):
>
> Wait a minute!
>
> There’s no _x_ in _jar_.
Are you implying that the Teeming Millions would try to catch someone on a technicality? Noooo, not us.
ETA, the questions was “How many X’s are in _THE_ jar?”. The answer would still be zero, as the only letter contained in said jar was ‘m’.
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### Author:  [@Kevbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kevbo)
#### Post date: [September 27, 2008, 6:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/those-guess-how-many-xs-are-in-the-jar-games-is-there-a-trick/464852/36 "2008-09-27T06:01:28Z")
> [@Joey\_P](#):
>
> ETA, the questions was “How many X’s are in _THE_ jar?”. The answer would still be zero, as the only letter contained in said jar was ‘m’.
I’m pretty sure I saw a bunch of W’s in there too.
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### Author:  [@KneadToKnow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KneadToKnow)
#### Post date: [September 27, 2008, 11:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/those-guess-how-many-xs-are-in-the-jar-games-is-there-a-trick/464852/37 "2008-09-27T11:55:37Z")
> [@Joey\_P](#):
>
> Are you implying that the Teeming Millions would try to catch someone on a technicality? Noooo, not us.
Well, the OP did ask if it was a trick.
> [@](#):
>
> ETA, the questions was “How many X’s are in _THE_ jar?”. The answer would still be zero, as the only letter contained in said jar was ‘m’.
You can’t fool me that easy. There’s no _x_ in _the_, either. And no _m_!
_There are four lights!_
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### Author:  [@Joey\_P](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Joey_P)
#### Post date: [September 27, 2008, 12:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/those-guess-how-many-xs-are-in-the-jar-games-is-there-a-trick/464852/38 "2008-09-27T12:11:15Z")
> [@KneadToKnow](#):
>
> You can’t fool me that easy. There’s no _x_ in _the_, either. And no _m_!
Rats. Foiled again.
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### Author:  [@SpecialAgentJem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SpecialAgentJem)
#### Post date: [September 27, 2008, 6:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/those-guess-how-many-xs-are-in-the-jar-games-is-there-a-trick/464852/39 "2008-09-27T18:16:05Z")
My trick would be to buy an identical jar and bags of the same sweets. Fill the jar and count how many you pull out until the jar is empty. Costly, time consuming and pathetic! Oh and it may not work - you could be one sweet out and someone else may snatch the prize! Worth a try though, eh? 😃
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### Author:  [@HeyHomie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HeyHomie)
#### Post date: [September 28, 2008, 11:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/those-guess-how-many-xs-are-in-the-jar-games-is-there-a-trick/464852/40 "2008-09-28T23:48:10Z")
> [@Ponderoid](#):
>
> So what was your guess, what was the actual number, and how close were your nearest competitors? Did anyone go over? What did you win?
>
> \*\*\* Ponder
There were four jars: one Skittles, one M & M’s, one off-brand malted milk balls, and one a mix of candy corn and candy pumpkins.
My guess on the Skittles (which I won): 1,468. Actual number of Skittles: 1,489. I was within 21 Skittles (I’ll leave it to a Doper better at math to figure out how many percentage points I was away). The other guesses weren’t revealed. For correctly guessing how many Skittles were in a jar I won… a jar of Skittles.
I have no idea what my guesses were on the other products. I did hear that, on the M & M’s, there were two identical guesses, and the winner was determined by a flip of a coin.
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