# Thought experiment: Trump gets the nom but dies/becomes incapacitated before the election **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [February 11, 2024, 2:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thought-experiment-trump-gets-the-nom-but-dies-becomes-incapacitated-before-the-election/997433 "2024-02-11T14:49:55Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2024, 9:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thought-experiment-trump-gets-the-nom-but-dies-becomes-incapacitated-before-the-election/997433/21 "2024-02-11T21:48:04Z")
> [@Horatius](#): > > > [@BigT](#): > > > > I can’t think of a good strategic reason to keep it quiet if you’ve already narrowed it down to one person. > > You’re not allowing for the bribes. Trump will keep it open in the expectation that at least a few people will try to buy it, and there’s no way he’d leave that money on the table. I didn’t consider that, but I’m not sure that works. Trump generally seems to expect people actually believe what he says—at least, if they’re on “his side.” I think he’s more interested in communicating he is decisive. The other possibility I see is that he does have someone he wants, but his advisors think they’re a very bad idea, and have convinced Trump that it would be bad to reveal his choice, when their goal is actually to convince him to pick someone else. They know Trump is fickle and changes his mind a lot. If they can spin whoever he has picked as not being loyal, or distract him with some other candidate, they likely think he’ll forget about his previous choice, and even claim he never wanted them in the first place. Either way, I wouldn’t count on there being a chosen candidate. But I guess it’s possible Trump actually does currently want to bring in one of his kids—and that his campaign realize this is a horrible idea and hope to persuade him otherwise. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2024, 9:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thought-experiment-trump-gets-the-nom-but-dies-becomes-incapacitated-before-the-election/997433/22 "2024-02-11T21:57:40Z")
> [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](#): > > If this happens there will be a large number of people who would believe he was assassinated by the ‘deep state’ or Biden. There may be a level of chaos which could be consequential to the election. > > Double chaos points if it’s not a sudden death and he’s able to make a statement before he passes. I was going to say, not if he stroked out in the middle of one of his televised rallies. But then I realized the cult would still accuse the Deep State and the other usual subjects of poisoning him, or hitting him with an invisible death ray, or… ---
**Author:** ![Marvin\_the\_Martian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/marvin_the_martian/32/2898_2.png) [@Marvin\_the\_Martian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marvin_the_Martian)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2024, 10:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thought-experiment-trump-gets-the-nom-but-dies-becomes-incapacitated-before-the-election/997433/23 "2024-02-11T22:02:27Z")
> [@EddyTeddyFreddy](#): > > I was going to say, not if he stroked out in the middle of one of his televised rallies. Assuming you could tell… ---
**Author:** ![Pardel-Lux](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pardel-lux/32/20182_2.png) [@Pardel-Lux](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pardel-Lux)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2024, 10:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thought-experiment-trump-gets-the-nom-but-dies-becomes-incapacitated-before-the-election/997433/24 "2024-02-11T22:09:14Z")
To which I would answer: What took them so long? Coming back to the OP, if I have understood the answers to my question correctly, the Republcan Convention will nominate the presidential candidate and the VP candidate on July 15-18, and if then Trump dies or becomes incapacitated, the VP candidate will automatically become the official Republican candidate for the Presidency. Is that right? Thus the question is after July 18th who will this person be, and how will they be chosen? But if he dies or becomes incapacitated before July 15th all bets are off. The only other candidate in the game right now is Nikki Haley, but that does not mean she will get the votes or the support of Trump’s delegates and supporters. And the really bizarre event would be if he died or became incapacitated between July the 15th and July the 18th. OK, I’ll wait a while. We’ll see. ---
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2024, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thought-experiment-trump-gets-the-nom-but-dies-becomes-incapacitated-before-the-election/997433/25 "2024-02-11T22:16:01Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > How the R voters, from never-trumpers to raging MAGAts, react depends a _lot_ IMO on who that VP candidate is Yeah but the one thing we know about Trump’s VP candidate , even more than they will agree to [betray their oath as president of the Senate if needed](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stefanik-has-said-shed-betray-american-democray-how-the-fuck-is-this-not-front-page-news/997367), is that they will be utterly devoid of charisma (or whatever passes for charisma in Magaland) and not in any way viewed as a potential replacement for Trump. Trump’s ego will absolutely ensure that, above all else, is the primary qualification of their VP pick. So yeah there is no way the MAGAts will rally round and vote for whichever empty suit gets the VP slot. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2024, 10:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thought-experiment-trump-gets-the-nom-but-dies-becomes-incapacitated-before-the-election/997433/26 "2024-02-11T22:44:55Z")
> [@Pardel-Lux](#): > > Coming back to the OP, if I have understood the answers to my question correctly, the Republcan Convention will nominate the presidential candidate and the VP candidate on July 15-18, and if then Trump dies or becomes incapacitated, the VP candidate will automatically become the official Republican candidate for the Presidency. Is that right? **Probably** , but not necessarily. Both the Republican and Democratic Parties have bylaws which cover this (all of the below is from a Vox article published prior to the 2020 election): > [@](#): > > First off, what would happen if a major-party nominee dies between now and Election Day (November 3)? > > Since it’s already early October, ballots have been finalized in many states, and early and mail voting has already begun. So it’s [almost surely too late](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/10/trump-positive-what-happens-if-candidate-incapacitated-or-dies.html) to change the names on the ballot at this point. The only practical way to make that happen would be to postpone the presidential election, and a bipartisan agreement to do that is very tough to imagine. > > But voters can vote for a dead candidate. In 2000, Missouri Gov. Mel Carnahan was the Democratic nominee for that year’s Senate race in the state. He died in a plane crash three weeks before the election, too late to have his name removed from the ballot. But Democrats had announced that Carnahan’s widow would be their choice for the seat, and the state’s new governor had agreed to appoint her to the seat if Carnahan won — [which is what happened](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/missouri-elects-dead-man-as-senator-623222.html). > > For the presidential race, the DNC and RNC have processes by which they can replace a deceased nominee. [Both](https://democrats.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/2020-Call-for-Convention-WITH-Attachments-2.26.19.pdf) say, essentially, that they get to pick the replacement by majority vote (the [RNC says](https://s3.amazonaws.com/prod-static-ngop-pbl/docs/Rules_of_the_Republican+Party_FINAL_S14090314.pdf) they could also reconvene their convention to pick a replacement, but that likely wouldn’t happen this year). Either party can still do this to “replace” the nominee after the election and before the Electoral College votes on December 14 — but the problem is that it’s already too late to get a new nominee’s name actually on state ballots. > > What either party could do in the event of an untimely death, though, is make clear who the designated successor would be. And for both, there’s an obvious choice: the VP nominee, whose name is actually on the ballot. (Voters aren’t just voting for Trump or Biden; they’re voting for electors who have pledged to support the Trump-Pence ticket or the Biden-Harris ticket.) > > That wouldn’t necessarily be the end of the story since the electors have to vote, as we’ll get to next. And it’s important to note that the DNC or RNC doesn’t technically have to pick the VP nominee to replace a deceased presidential nominee — they could theoretically pick somebody else, or split into factions backing different contenders. > **[What happens if a presidential candidate dies?](https://www.vox.com/21502447/trump-biden-death-what-happens)** > > It depends when it happens. Here are the scenarios. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2024, 11:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thought-experiment-trump-gets-the-nom-but-dies-becomes-incapacitated-before-the-election/997433/27 "2024-02-11T23:05:26Z")
And if Trump dies before the convention but after the delegates have been chosen in the primaries, I believe those delegates are freed and can choose whoever they want. At least, that’s how the Democrats do it. There has been talk of Biden maybe stepping down just before the convention, in which case the delegates do not have to pick Kamala Harris and are free to choose anyone they want. Gavin Newsom, for example. The best case scenario for Republicans would be if Trump won the primaries, then had a health issue that forced him to willingly step down. ---
**Author:** ![Johanna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johanna/32/8318_2.png) [@Johanna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johanna)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2024, 2:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thought-experiment-trump-gets-the-nom-but-dies-becomes-incapacitated-before-the-election/997433/28 "2024-02-12T02:28:28Z")
Anybody remember 1972? Tom Eagleton won the Democratic nomination for vice president but right after the convention the fact that he’d gotten electroshock therapy for depression made the Democrats panic and force him out. They reconvened the convention a few weeks later and nominated Sargent Shriver. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2024, 3:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thought-experiment-trump-gets-the-nom-but-dies-becomes-incapacitated-before-the-election/997433/29 "2024-02-12T03:22:10Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > The best case scenario for Republicans would be if Trump won the primaries, then had a health issue that forced him to willingly step down. Trump step down? Something like this is more likely: [Grover Cleveland’s Secret Cancer Surgery](https://lib.arizona.edu/hsl/materials/collections/secret-illness/cleveland) ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2024, 3:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thought-experiment-trump-gets-the-nom-but-dies-becomes-incapacitated-before-the-election/997433/30 "2024-02-12T03:49:37Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > The best case scenario for Republicans would be if Trump won the primaries, then had a health issue that forced him to willingly step down. This may be getting a bit away from the OP’s scenario, but Trump kicking it after he won the primaries but before the convention would be something. One thing to consider is that while each state’s primary determines how many delegates will be pledged to which candidates, _who_ exactly those delegates will be is determined later at state- or district-level convenings or by party committees. It would be a mad scramble as ambitious politicians tried to maneuver their supporters into those delegate slots. You know who would benefit most in this scenario? Greg Abbott. Texas will have the second most delegates at the convention, only a hair behind California. That gives him a pretty significant base to build on. Ron DeSantis could also benefit from Florida having the third largest delegation, but he’s got the stink of a loser on him. Meanwhile Abbott is erecting barbed wire on the border and thumbing his nose at the federal government. ---
**Author:** ![phs3](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/8491ac/32.png) [@phs3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/phs3)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2024, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thought-experiment-trump-gets-the-nom-but-dies-becomes-incapacitated-before-the-election/997433/31 "2024-02-12T16:49:33Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > the never-trumpers who’ll be happily returning to the Party and will vote R from president on down This is my biggest fear about anything that removes Trump from the ballot. If (big IF) we assume he can’t win, then we _want_ him on the ballot, because that’ll chase away some number of less-crazy Republicans. If it’s anyone else, they’ll all heave a sigh of relief (as will some of the “undecideds” [how TF can anyone be undecided at this point??? Yeah, different topic]) and vote R. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2024, 6:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thought-experiment-trump-gets-the-nom-but-dies-becomes-incapacitated-before-the-election/997433/32 "2024-02-12T18:06:10Z")
I don’t think a lot of nevertrumpers are coming back. The Republican party is changing into a blue collar populist party, and the neverTrumpers seem to be more the old eastern elite Republican types who loved their Georgetown cocktail parties and schmoozing with the ‘elites’. ‘Maga’ isn’t going away, but it will hopefully mutate into something less obnoxious without Trump. Maybe turn back into more of a ‘Tea Party’ vibe. But the never Trumpers disdained the Tea Party as well. There has never been a time more ripe for the emergence of a new party. Both Democrats and Republicans have shifted quite dramatically, stranding a lot of voters. It looks like Vivek is the frontrunner for Trump’s running mate. If so, I think that will be a problem for Trump. ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2024, 7:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thought-experiment-trump-gets-the-nom-but-dies-becomes-incapacitated-before-the-election/997433/33 "2024-02-12T19:23:29Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > The Republican party is changing into a blue-collar populist party, and the neverTrumpers seem to be more the old eastern elite Republican types who loved their Georgetown cocktail parties and schmoozing with the ‘elites’. The blue-collar guys who think Trump is one of them, and the elites whom Trump wants to join (and give them tax breaks). It’s sort of depressingly funny. Do any of Trump’s kids have the “spark” or love of the MAGA crowd to carry on if Daddy falls? ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2024, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thought-experiment-trump-gets-the-nom-but-dies-becomes-incapacitated-before-the-election/997433/34 "2024-02-12T20:14:46Z")
I have no idea. I can’t make sense of much of it. Trump’s obvious weaknesses seem to not matter. At this point he’s more avatar than candidate. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2024, 8:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thought-experiment-trump-gets-the-nom-but-dies-becomes-incapacitated-before-the-election/997433/35 "2024-02-12T20:28:19Z")
> [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](#): > > If this happens there will be a large number of people who would believe he was assassinated by the ‘deep state’ or Biden. There may be a level of chaos which could be consequential to the election. > > Double chaos points if it’s not a sudden death and he’s able to make a statement before he passes. True. But would you rather have trump dead with no chance of being President amidst all the chaos and violence and the public’s unwillingness to accept the outcome of the election, or would you rather have trump alive and trying desperately to take the White House by any means fair or foul on the back of all the chaos and violence and the public’s unwillingness to accept the outcome of the election that he will be actively fomenting? Because those are the only two choices on offer. There is no non-chaos, non-violent choice on the menu. Lotta people screw up by trying to so hard to avoid one obviously bad choice that they don’t bother to understand _all_ the other bad choices, and wishfully create some good choice that absolutely will _not_ occur. Don’t fall for that trap. ---
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2024, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thought-experiment-trump-gets-the-nom-but-dies-becomes-incapacitated-before-the-election/997433/36 "2024-02-12T21:34:57Z")
I wasn’t trying to indicate a preference… ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2024, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thought-experiment-trump-gets-the-nom-but-dies-becomes-incapacitated-before-the-election/997433/37 "2024-02-12T22:38:35Z")
Ah, sorry. Some folks around here express concern for mob violence, with the unstated but clearly intended other half being “therefore, to prevent the violence we must give in to trump’s rabble-rousing and not inflame his rabble”. I’m sorry if I wrongly painted you with that brush. The many posters who do do that really get on my nerves. ---
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2024, 11:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thought-experiment-trump-gets-the-nom-but-dies-becomes-incapacitated-before-the-election/997433/38 "2024-02-12T23:29:22Z")
No problem at all. I certainly won’t shed a tear when Trump finally passes but if it happens at such a vital time I still fear for the consequences. Better that he gets soundly defeated in the election and ends up in jail where he belongs. ---
**Author:** ![nearwildheaven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/90db22/32.png) [@nearwildheaven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nearwildheaven)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2024, 2:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thought-experiment-trump-gets-the-nom-but-dies-becomes-incapacitated-before-the-election/997433/39 "2024-02-13T02:48:10Z")
My take on it? Popcorn sales would soar. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2024, 3:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thought-experiment-trump-gets-the-nom-but-dies-becomes-incapacitated-before-the-election/997433/40 "2024-02-13T03:03:35Z")
> [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](#): > > Better that he gets soundly defeated in the election and ends up in jail where he belongs. I fully agree that would be the ideal outcome. But dead is _much_ more of a sure thing IMO. So I’d prefer dead because I prefer certainty. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thought-experiment-trump-gets-the-nom-but-dies-becomes-incapacitated-before-the-election/997433.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thought-experiment-trump-gets-the-nom-but-dies-becomes-incapacitated-before-the-election/997433.md?page=3)