# Thread for Discussion of Political Ramifications of Trump Injury from Shooting at the Butler, PA Rally **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [July 14, 2024, 1:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thread-for-discussion-of-political-ramifications-of-trump-injury-from-shooting-at-the-butler-pa-rally/1004185 "2024-07-14T01:25:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 12
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2024, 6:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thread-for-discussion-of-political-ramifications-of-trump-injury-from-shooting-at-the-butler-pa-rally/1004185/221 "2024-07-14T18:56:05Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > **As I already said, my post was responding to the notion multiple posters have put forward that this incident all but puts DJT back in the WH.** I see exactly zero historical examples to show that is indeed the case. I agree that it’s far from guaranteed that Trump wins the election, but what happened yesterday could only help and not hurt him. And he was already polling pretty strongly pre-shooting. So maybe this bumps his winning chances up from 60% to 65% or something. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2024, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thread-for-discussion-of-political-ramifications-of-trump-injury-from-shooting-at-the-butler-pa-rally/1004185/222 "2024-07-14T19:02:20Z")
With the GOP convention about to start up I doubt it will be possible to measure an increase in his support separate from the typical “convention bounce”. I also expect the rhetoric at said event to be a full on spewing of hate toward Democrats and President Biden. More than normal because of this happening. I doubt that will appeal to anyone other than the MAGAts. In fact it will likely turn off a decent portion of independents. ---
**Author:** ![Ellecram](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellecram/32/18948_2.png) [@Ellecram](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ellecram)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2024, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thread-for-discussion-of-political-ramifications-of-trump-injury-from-shooting-at-the-butler-pa-rally/1004185/223 "2024-07-14T19:05:14Z")
I have a similar fear but hope that sanity will prevail. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2024, 7:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thread-for-discussion-of-political-ramifications-of-trump-injury-from-shooting-at-the-butler-pa-rally/1004185/224 "2024-07-14T19:10:42Z")
It’s a nice thought but sanity seems to be in ever-dwindlilng supply the last few years. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2024, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thread-for-discussion-of-political-ramifications-of-trump-injury-from-shooting-at-the-butler-pa-rally/1004185/225 "2024-07-14T19:17:58Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > So maybe this bumps his winning chances up from 60% to 65% or something. Depends which models you follow, but several already had it roughly at 75% currently. Silver-less 538 running 50 50 but others … not. Probably not going to get much worse than that. @Crane had supposed that this might have Trump overplay the hand and backfire, and could be. Has Trump given any live comments yet? ---
**Author:** ![Ellecram](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellecram/32/18948_2.png) [@Ellecram](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ellecram)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2024, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thread-for-discussion-of-political-ramifications-of-trump-injury-from-shooting-at-the-butler-pa-rally/1004185/226 "2024-07-14T19:18:13Z")
Nice thoughts are all I have to hang on to at the moment. But I agree with your sentiment about the dearth of sanity. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2024, 7:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thread-for-discussion-of-political-ramifications-of-trump-injury-from-shooting-at-the-butler-pa-rally/1004185/227 "2024-07-14T19:24:25Z")
I honestly wonder how this very near death experience will impact Trump. As has been noted, he’s not a normal person. With his messiah complex he may more completely buy into that God is protecting him as Chosen One, and become even more delusional. Or the brush with death could have him re-evaluating what the hell he has signed into. This is a man who dodged military service and considers those who put their lives at risk as chumps after all. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2024, 7:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thread-for-discussion-of-political-ramifications-of-trump-injury-from-shooting-at-the-butler-pa-rally/1004185/228 "2024-07-14T19:25:20Z")
Discussion of motivation of this incident. Mods, please create a new thread if you deem it appropriate. > [@Trump bloody after shots fired at a Trump Rally {Try and keep this factual/Breaking News}](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-bloody-after-shots-fired-at-a-trump-rally-try-and-keep-this-factual-breaking-news/1004162/400): > > Actual political violence is very rare. Assassinations and assassination attempts are almost always from just plain crazy folks, and it’s a fool’s errand to try to classify crazy. … > > There is such a thing as genuinely political violence, but an incomprehensible crazy is the way to bet. In the US, this is the case. In Europe, political is more common than crazy. So we can’t rule out political. Note that Trump sent out an email saying there was going to be a huge announcement yesterday, with the usual incendiary rhetoric. So it sounded like he was promising (ha!) a VP announcement. There’s a section of the far-right that wants Flynn slotted in as VP and needless to say they are nuts. But they have representation among the convention delegates, and members in PA, according to Seth Abramson. As I stated upthread, the FBI agents searching the accused’s living quarters need to keep an open mind. When the crazy get organized, it’s political. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2024, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thread-for-discussion-of-political-ramifications-of-trump-injury-from-shooting-at-the-butler-pa-rally/1004185/229 "2024-07-14T19:26:09Z")
I know MIchael Crichton is almost as far from a credible source as can be, but I recall one of his books mentioning the psychology that narcissists often suffer less PTSD than average people because they aren’t as prone to the same self-reflection after a crisis that a normal person would. Trump may think he’s invincible and consider the missed shot to be proof of that - that, even if he doesn’t believe in God, that somehow the powers that be are shielding him from harm and so he might not fear being in public again for a speech the way an average person would. (Edit, nvm, I think I misquoted what Crichton was saying. But still, it may be true.) ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2024, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thread-for-discussion-of-political-ramifications-of-trump-injury-from-shooting-at-the-butler-pa-rally/1004185/230 "2024-07-14T19:28:15Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > With his messiah complex he may more completely buy into that God is protecting him as Chosen One, and become even more delusional. I’m going with that. He is too much of a narcissist to back-off. This will be proof to him that he is awesome. Captain Bone Spurs can now tell a war story. He’s bled for this country now. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2024, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thread-for-discussion-of-political-ramifications-of-trump-injury-from-shooting-at-the-butler-pa-rally/1004185/231 "2024-07-14T19:28:58Z")
Moderating: > [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > Discussion of motivation of this incident. Mods, please create a new thread if you deem it appropriate. This is the thread for discussion that falls outside of what are factual updates about what happened. If you want a more narrow focused thread, please feel free to start one. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2024, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thread-for-discussion-of-political-ramifications-of-trump-injury-from-shooting-at-the-butler-pa-rally/1004185/232 "2024-07-14T19:31:22Z")
And he has a chunk of voters who do see him in Christ-like terms. But he becomes _so_ delusional as to begin to express a self-belief of that in other than code? What impact would that have? ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2024, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thread-for-discussion-of-political-ramifications-of-trump-injury-from-shooting-at-the-butler-pa-rally/1004185/233 "2024-07-14T19:45:24Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > With his messiah complex he may more completely buy into that God is protecting him as Chosen One, and become even more delusional. Or the brush with death could have him re-evaluating what the hell he has signed into. This is a man who dodged military service and considers those who put their lives at risk as chumps after all. As I’ve said elsewhere, IMHO he will experience PTSD reactions and will be in complete denial about them-- about what they are and what they mean. He will continue to bluff and bluster _outwardly_, but what little internal framework he has will ultimately crumble. The man has no core values except his own imagined superiority. He has nothing to fall back on-- no philosophy, faith, behavioral guidelines, principles, ethics, moral code, no personal or family loyalty-- he is an empty, hollow shell. This brush with death will cause him to experience the utter paucity of his internal life. Although he won’t understand what he is experiencing-- it will just feel like terror, standing on a bed of marbles on a moving surface in a storm. He sure as hell won’t “re-evaluate” anything, at least not in any meaningful way. I’m curious and interested in watching him fall apart in real time. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2024, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thread-for-discussion-of-political-ramifications-of-trump-injury-from-shooting-at-the-butler-pa-rally/1004185/234 "2024-07-14T19:49:58Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > As I’ve said elsewhere, IMHO he will experience PTSD reactions and will be in complete denial about them-- about what they are and what they mean. He will continue to bluff and bluster _outwardly_, but what little internal framework he has will ultimately crumble. The man has no core values except his own imagined superiority. He has nothing to fall back on-- no philosophy, faith, behavioral guidelines, principles, ethics, moral code, no personal or family loyalty-- he is an empty, hollow shell. You give Trump too much credit. I think this will feed into his narcissism. The man has never been reflective in his life. He has no internal monologue. He simply has no capacity to reflect on this. I have no doubt he is inherently a coward. Deeply so. And he cannot perceive that in his self image. This will only embolden him IMO. ---
**Author:** ![sciurophobic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/cab0a1/32.png) [@sciurophobic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sciurophobic)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2024, 7:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thread-for-discussion-of-political-ramifications-of-trump-injury-from-shooting-at-the-butler-pa-rally/1004185/235 "2024-07-14T19:51:15Z")
> [@steronz](#): > > look for a DEI hire narrative Look no further: [GOP lawmaker calls Secret Service director ‘a DEI person’ after Trump shooting](https://www.rawstory.com/tim-burchett-dei-person/) ---
**Author:** ![crowmanyclouds](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crowmanyclouds/32/19884_2.png) [@crowmanyclouds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crowmanyclouds)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2024, 8:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thread-for-discussion-of-political-ramifications-of-trump-injury-from-shooting-at-the-butler-pa-rally/1004185/236 "2024-07-14T20:01:52Z")
> Burchett was flanked by two rifles on Sunday while he spoke to Fox News about the shooting of the former president. [![](https://www.rawstory.com/media-library/tim-burchett.jpg?id=52681385&width=1200&height=675) ](https://www.rawstory.com/media-library/tim-burchett.jpg?id=52681385&width=1200&height=675) > Burchett also said Democrats had been “spewing this vitriol.” > > “I mean, comparing Trump to Hitler, just the all of it, it’s, it’s just, it is a manifestation of what they brought upon us,” he insisted. “It is not the Republicans’ fault.” Of course it isn’t! The inherit and blatant threats that Republicans make by brandishing firearms are just in our imagination! ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2024, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thread-for-discussion-of-political-ramifications-of-trump-injury-from-shooting-at-the-butler-pa-rally/1004185/237 "2024-07-14T20:07:09Z")
> [@puzzlegal](#): > > My instinct is that Biden lost the election at the debate. And it doesn’t matter if he’s really totally with it. It did not seem to move the poll needle much, and in fact 538 has shown Biden improving. The newer Joe is energized.And now- that idea has dropped off the headlines. > [@snowthx](#): > > Crooks was a registered Republican and a gun nut of the first order. > [@ThelmaLou](#): > > PTSD after being shot (at) is no joke Absolutely. But not everyone gets it- I got shot at- no PTSD i could detect. My Dad got shot at a lot during WW2- no PTSD I saw. ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2024, 8:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thread-for-discussion-of-political-ramifications-of-trump-injury-from-shooting-at-the-butler-pa-rally/1004185/238 "2024-07-14T20:15:01Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > He has nothing to fall back on-- no philosophy, faith, behavioral guidelines, principles, ethics, moral code, no personal or family loyalty Trump and his father were active supporters of [Norman Vincent Peals’ Christian](https://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=AwrEsyX6MpRm4AQAI6hXNyoA;_ylu=Y29sbwNiZjEEcG9zAzMEdnRpZAMEc2VjA3Ny/RV=2/RE=1722198011/RO=10/RU=https%3a%2f%2fyalebooks.yale.edu%2f2016%2f11%2f23%2fthe-success-gospel-of-norman-vincent-peale-and-donald-trump%2f/RK=2/RS=rmzia.jBugip7J3Mhq9d6RfuJBw-) ministry. What is relative to this situation is that reality in Peals’ Christianity is what you imagine it to be. You can create reality by always acting on the world as you wish it to be. That is Trumps’ behavioral guideline. It’s worked well for him so far. A euphoric messiah is likely. ---
**Author:** ![steronz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steronz/32/11765_2.png) [@steronz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/steronz)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2024, 8:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thread-for-discussion-of-political-ramifications-of-trump-injury-from-shooting-at-the-butler-pa-rally/1004185/239 "2024-07-14T20:44:20Z")
Damn I’m good. Or they’re incredible predicable. ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2024, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thread-for-discussion-of-political-ramifications-of-trump-injury-from-shooting-at-the-butler-pa-rally/1004185/240 "2024-07-14T20:45:21Z")
> [@Crane](#): > > The raised fist is the new image of the campaign. Shooting off a candidates’ ear is the greatest piece of political theater since the burning of the Reichstag. Like many I watched last night thinking ‘this doesn’t seem real.’ It was all a little too perfect: the candidate, not hurt much but with blood on him; the shooter immediately dead. I kept hearing Angela Lansbury’s voice: > [@](#): > > You are to shoot the presidential nominee through the head. And Johnny will rise gallantly to his feet and lift Ben Arthur’s body in his arms, stand in front of the microphones and begin to speak. … I shall force someone to take the body away from him and Johnny will really hit those microphones and those cameras with blood all over him, fighting off anyone who tries to help him, defending America even if it means his own death, rallying a nation of television viewers to hysteria, to sweep us up into the White House with powers that will make martial law seem like anarchy! Do I think Donald Trump would agree to any plan that could mean the _slightest_ chance of him getting hurt? **NO. NEVER.** Do I think that people around Trump would set up a plan that would leave him only slightly hurt, but with a new narrative, complete with heroic images, sufficient to inspire less-dedicated voters to get out there and sweep Trump into the White House with the biggest landslide in American history? Well…yes. We need an investigation. We need it to be thorough and comprehensive. We need to know who the shooter has been in contact with in recent days and weeks. We need to know why and how an easily-manipulated 20-year-old was able to get on a rooftop within firing range of a rally podium. We need to know what ammunition was in his gun, and the angle of every projectile that hit the murdered man, the gravely-injured, and anything else on that stage (whether Trump’s ear or the teleprompter). Am I saying that Trump’s handlers would have been happy to have Trump seriously wounded or even killed? Well–the former, possibly. He could still be ushered into power, with his inner circle getting even greater power than if Trump were fully healthy. The latter: no. That’s why I’m curious about the ammunition and the angles. Did the kid have a real chance of hitting Trump with deadly force? I’ll concede that the whole thing might be what it appears to be: a lone wolf who simply got lucky by encountering epically lazy-or-incompetent security at a rally. But I remain gob-smacked by how lazy-or-incompetent they were. We desperately need a full investigation to rule out other possibilities. If this is something other than chance–if Trump’s inner circle had something to do with it–would be a gamble for them. But making it all but certain Trump would win in November might make the gamble worthwhile. We really need to know how it was that the kid could climb up on that roof and stay there long enough to shoot. Could that really have happened by chance? > [@Crane](#): > > Trump is the luckiest man in the world. Maybe. But a big part of his luck may be that powerful people want him in the White House again. Movie quote: > **[Manchurian Candidate Quotes](https://www.quotes.net/movies/manchurian_candidate_(1962)_7197)** > > Great memorable quotes and script exchanges from the Manchurian Candidate movie on Quotes.net [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thread-for-discussion-of-political-ramifications-of-trump-injury-from-shooting-at-the-butler-pa-rally/1004185.md?page=11) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thread-for-discussion-of-political-ramifications-of-trump-injury-from-shooting-at-the-butler-pa-rally/1004185.md?page=13)