# Thread for Falsifiable Predictions about the Effect of Holidays on COVID-19 **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [February 3, 2021, 10:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thread-for-falsifiable-predictions-about-the-effect-of-holidays-on-covid-19/932163 "2021-02-03T22:54:02Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 7\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Treppenwitz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/treppenwitz/32/3445_2.png) [@Treppenwitz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Treppenwitz)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2021, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thread-for-falsifiable-predictions-about-the-effect-of-holidays-on-covid-19/932163/21 "2021-03-09T20:38:11Z")
> [@Fretful\_Porpentine](#): > > It was really intended to be “holidays and events,” loosely defined… OK, I’ll take Rangers winning the Scottish Football premiership. The games are played with the stadium empty, BTW, but when they won the championship this happened: > **[Rangers' Premiership win: 'Anger' over celebrating Rangers fans](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-56312051)** > > Nicola Sturgeon joins criticism of crowds who gathered to celebrate Rangers' Premiership win. I posted that elsewhere - I forgot it would be interesting material for this thread. l’ll go for 1. A significant uptick in cases in Glasgow starting ~17 March. 2. Probably little (if any) impact on hospitalisations ~ 24 March (most of the dickheads appear young-ish…) 3. Measurable increase in Glasgow hospitalisations ~ 1 April (…unlike their parents) All I have to do now is figure out how to track these. j ---
**Author:** ![Melbourne](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b5e925/32.png) [@Melbourne](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Melbourne)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2021, 8:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thread-for-falsifiable-predictions-about-the-effect-of-holidays-on-covid-19/932163/22 "2021-03-09T20:44:00Z")
> [@Fretful\_Porpentine](#): > > it’s a very, very smooth curve both on the way up and the way down, presumably because hospitals don’t close or stop reporting numbers for federal holidays. The death counts show a pronounced weekly affect, suggesting that hospitals _do_ stop reporting on weekends. Maybe occupancy is only reported weekly? Or maybe the smooth hospitalization data suggests that admittance/discharge is controlled by other factors - perhaps discharge rates are dependent on bed demand? ---
**Author:** ![Fretful\_Porpentine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fretful_porpentine/32/2873_2.png) [@Fretful\_Porpentine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fretful_Porpentine)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2021, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thread-for-falsifiable-predictions-about-the-effect-of-holidays-on-covid-19/932163/23 "2021-03-09T21:42:44Z")
> [@Melbourne](#): > > The death counts show a pronounced weekly affect, suggesting that hospitals _do_ stop reporting on weekends. Death counts are a lot lower on weekends, from what I understand, because there are several additional layers of bureaucracy involved with reporting a death. The hospital itself is still reporting, but various other government offices aren’t. Per [this page](https://covidtracking.com/analysis-updates/daily-covid-19-data-is-about-to-get-weird): > Current hospitalizations reported by states and territories have not shown as much volatility as tests, cases, and deaths, which makes sense—these numbers are reported by hospitals or hospital associations, and hospitals don’t get weekends off. ---
**Author:** ![Fretful\_Porpentine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fretful_porpentine/32/2873_2.png) [@Fretful\_Porpentine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fretful_Porpentine)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2021, 9:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thread-for-falsifiable-predictions-about-the-effect-of-holidays-on-covid-19/932163/24 "2021-03-09T21:44:55Z")
> [@Treppenwitz](#): > > All I have to do now is figure out how to track these. There’s a Scotland coronavirus tracker [here](https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/), if it helps. (Not official, it seems to be maintained by some dude with a travel blog, but he’s getting his information from official sources.) ---
**Author:** ![Treppenwitz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/treppenwitz/32/3445_2.png) [@Treppenwitz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Treppenwitz)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2021, 9:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thread-for-falsifiable-predictions-about-the-effect-of-holidays-on-covid-19/932163/25 "2021-03-09T21:52:16Z")
Fear not - I’m taking this seriously! [This is the best site I have found so far](https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview) - by fiddling with the geography, location and date field I can back up my prediction about cases. I haven’t yet found anything that will track hospitalisations _at a local level_. j ---
**Author:** ![Treppenwitz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/treppenwitz/32/3445_2.png) [@Treppenwitz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Treppenwitz)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2021, 9:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thread-for-falsifiable-predictions-about-the-effect-of-holidays-on-covid-19/932163/26 "2021-03-25T09:07:54Z")
Well, I think I can now declare my efforts a huge success. The challenge was to produce a falsifiable prediction; and my prediction could hardly have been more falsified. Anyone who wants the source data can dig it out of the [data table tab here](https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview). I would do so myself and present it if it showed anything at all - but it doesn’t. Two weeks on from mass gatherings of football fans in Glasgow, the only discernable trend is that more cases (and more tests) are reported on a Monday, presumably part of post-weekend reporting catch up. It’s a surprise to me that there isn’t anything even for the eye of faith to focus on. All I can say is that, from the news reports, the gatherings were out of doors. Beyond that, speculation would be a bad idea, I think. I’ll keep looking at the figures for a week or two, but if I see nothing now, I’m not expecting anything to happen. .j ---
**Author:** ![FigNorton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fignorton/32/5619_2.png) [@FigNorton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FigNorton)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2021, 1:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thread-for-falsifiable-predictions-about-the-effect-of-holidays-on-covid-19/932163/27 "2021-03-25T13:05:42Z")
Well, I was wrong. The UK strain probably became dominate in the middle of the month and about a week later on the 23rd of February the decline turned into something of a stall. So I can’t quite claim the variant had no effect - it might be to blame for the stop in decline. But since cases haven’t skyrocketed in the month and a half since, I will remain cautiously cynical that the UK variant is the cause of spikes elsewhere. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thread-for-falsifiable-predictions-about-the-effect-of-holidays-on-covid-19/932163.md?page=1)