# Throwdown: Academy Award nomination predictions **URL:** \ **Category:** Cafe Society\ **Created:** [January 20, 2008, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/throwdown-academy-award-nomination-predictions/434287 "2008-01-20T19:32:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 14\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Equipoise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/equipoise/32/151_2.png) [@Equipoise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Equipoise)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2008, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/throwdown-academy-award-nomination-predictions/434287/1 "2008-01-20T19:32:36Z")
I’m totally copping-out because I include Alternates and Dark Horses, any of which could, you never know, surprise us all (though many are really just wishful thinking), but **they’re all in the order that I think is likely, from locks to could be’s**. For instance, I think the first three in Best Picture are mortal locks. The next two could get bumped for the Alternate and/or 1st or 2nd Dark Horse. The bottom Dark Horses don’t really stand a chance, but if a surprise nomination were to come from somewhere, it would be there. I’ll be shocked if a name pops up that wasn’t on any of these lists. It could happen though. A few years ago I never ever EVER would have prediction that **City of God** would pop up with **4** nominations! I think that blew EVERYBODY away. Such a thrill too. So, hey, you never know. I’m suck at predicting, but I’ve tried to pay attention to Awards buzz. I’ve also seen almost all of the movies. I make Predictions in all but 5 categories. **BEST PICTURE** No Country For Old Men Michael Clayton There Will Be Blood Into the Wild Juno Alternate choices: The Diving Bell And The Butterfly Atonement Dark horses: American Gangster Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street Charlie Wilson’s War The Great Debaters **BEST DIRECTOR** Joel Coen and Ethan Coen - No Country For Old Men Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood Sean Penn - Into the Wild Julian Schnabel - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly Tony Gilroy - Michael Clayton Alternate choice: Joe Wright - Atonement Dark horses: Ridley Scott - American Gangster Tim Burton - Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street Sidney Lumet - Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead **BEST ACTOR** Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood George Clooney - Michael Clayton Viggo Mortensen - Eastern Promises Johnny Depp - Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street Emile Hirsch - Into the Wild Alternate choice: Ryan Gosling - Lars and the Real Girl Dark horses: Tommy Lee Jones - In The Valley of Elah Frank Langella - Starting Out In The Evening Josh Brolin - No Country For Old Men Denzel Washington - American Gangster Tom Hanks - Charlie Wilson’s War Philip Seymour Hoffman - Before The Devil Knows You’re Dead Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Savages James McAvoy - Atonement **BEST ACTRESS** Julie Christie - Away from Her Marion Cotillard - La Vie en Rose Angelina Jolie - A Mighty Heart Ellen Page - Juno Cate Blanchett - Elizabeth: The Golden Age Alternate choice: Amy Adams - Enchanted Dark horses: Laura Linney - The Savages Helena Bonham-Carter - Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street Keira Knightley - Atonement Jodie Foster - The Brave One **BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR** Javier Bardem - No Country For Old Men Casey Affleck - The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford Hal Holbrook - Into the Wild Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton Philip Seymour Hoffman - Charlie Wilson’s War Alternate choices: Tommy Lee Jones - No Country For Old Men Paul Dano - There Will Be Blood Dark horses: Max von Sydow - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly John Travolta - Hairspray **BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS** Cate Blanchett - I’m Not There Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton Catherine Keener - Into the Wild Ruby Dee - American Gangster Alternate choices: Saorise Ronan - Atonement Vanessa Redgrave - Atonement Dark horses (this was indeed a great year for Supporting Actress performances!): Kelly MacDonald - No Country for Old Men Samantha Morton - Control Jennifer Garner - Juno Allison Janney - Juno Emily Mortimer - Lars and the Real Girl Jennifer Jason Leigh - Margot at the Wedding Olympia Dukakis - Away from Her Romola Garai - Atonement Marie-Josée Croze - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly Emmanuelle Seigner - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly Imelda Staunton - Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix Marisa Tomei - Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead Leslie Mann - Knocked Up Kate Winslet - Romance & Cigarettes **BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY** Juno - Diablo Cody Michael Clayton - Tony Gilroy Ratatouille - Brad Bird The Savages - Tamara Jenkins Lars and the Real Girl - Nancy Oliver Alternate choice: Knocked Up - Judd Apatow Dark horses: Eastern Promises - Steven Knight Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead - Kelly Masterson **BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY** No Country For Old Men - Ethan Coen and Joel Coen There Will Be Blood - Paul Thomas Anderson Atonement - Christopher Hampton The Diving Bell and the Butterfly - Ronald Harwood Into the Wild - Sean Penn Alternate choice: Zodiac - James Vanderbilt Dark horses: Charlie Wilson’s War - Aaron Sorkin American Gangster - Steven Zaillian **BEST ANIMATED FILM** Ratatouille Persepolis The Simpsons Movie Alternate choice: Bee Movie **BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY** No Country for Old Men - Roger Deakins There Will Be Blood - Robert Elswit The Diving Bell and the Butterfly - Janusz Kaminski Atonement - Seamus McGarvey The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford - Roger Deakins Alternate choice: Into The Wild - Eric Gautier Dark horses: Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street - Dariusz Wolski Lust, Caution - Rodrigo Prieto Across The Universe - Bruno Delbonnel **BEST COSTUME DESIGN** Atonement - Jacqueline Durran Elizabeth: The Golden Age - Alexandra Byrne Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street - Colleen Atwood Hairspray - Rita Ryack There Will Be Blood - Mark Bridges Alternate choice: La Vie en Rose - Marit Allen Dark horses: The Assassination Of Jesse James By The Coward Robert Ford - Patricia Norris Lust, Caution - Lai Pan Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End - Penny Rose 3:10 To Yuma - Arianne Phillips Across The Universe - Albert Wolsky The Golden Compass - Ruth Myers **BEST ART DIRECTION** Atonement - Sarah Greenwood Elizabeth: The Golden Age - Guy Dyas Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street - Dante Ferretti There Will Be Blood - Jack Fisk and Jim Erickson Ratatouille - Harley Jessup Alternate choice: American Gangster - Arthur Max Dark horses: Lust, Caution - Kwok-wing Chong Hairspray - David Gropman and Gordon Sim Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix - Stuart Craig The Golden Compass - Dennis Gassner and Anna Pinnock 300 - James Bissell Michael Clayton - Kevin Thompson No Country For Old Men - Jess Gonshor The Bourne Ultimatum - Peter Wenham The Diving Bell and the Butterfly - Michel Eric & Laurent Ott The Kite Runner - Carlos Conti The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford - Patricia Norris and Janice Blackie-Goodine 3:10 To Yuma - Andrew Menzies and Jay Hart Across The Universe - Mark Friedberg and Ellen Christiansen **BEST ORIGINAL SCORE** Atonement - Dario Marianelli There Will Be Blood - Jonny Greenwood Lust, Caution - Alexandre Desplat Ratatouille - Michael Giacchino The Kite Runner - Alberto Iglesias Alternate choice: Enchanted - Alan Menken Dark horses: Grace Is Gone - Clint Eastwood The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford - Warren Ellis/Nick Cave Eastern Promises - Howard Shore Into The Wild - Michael Brook 3:10 To Yuma - Marco Beltrami **BEST ORIGINAL SONG** “Guaranteed” - Into the Wild “That’s How You Know” - Enchanted “Falling Slowly”- Once “Grace Is Gone” - Grace Is Gone “La Festin” - Ratatouille Alternate choice: “Happy Working Song” - Enchanted Dark horses: “Come So Far” - Hairspray “Walk Hard” - Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story “Despedida” - Love In The Time Of Cholera “Lyra” - The Golden Compass “Back Where You Belong” - The Water Horse: Legend Of The Deep **BEST EDITING** No Country For Old Men - “Roderick Jaynes” (Ethan Coen and Joel Coen) The Bourne Ultimatum - Christopher Rouse Michael Clayton - John Gilroy There Will Be Blood - Dylan Tichenor Into The Wild - Jay Cassidy Alternate choice: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly - Juliette Welfling Dark horses: Atonement - Paul Tothill Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street - Chris Lebenzon Hairspray - Michael Tronick Juno - Dana E. Glauberman Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End - Craig Wood & Stephen Rivkin Ratatouille - Darren Holmes 3:10 To Yuma - Michael McCusker American Gangster - Pietro Scalia I’m Not There - Jay Rabinowitz **BEST SOUND MIXING** No Country For Old Men Transformers Into The Wild The Bourne Ultimatum 300 Alternate choices: Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street There Will Be Blood Beowulf Spider Man 3 **BEST SOUND EDITING** (I have no idea here) No Country For Old Men There Will Be Blood Beowulf The Bourne Ultimatum Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End Spider Man 3 Transformers **BEST VISUAL EFFECTS** (only 3 nominees in this category) Transformers Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End 300 Alternate choice: The Golden Compass Dark horses: I Am Legend Evan Almighty The Bourne Ultimatum **BEST MAKE UP** (only 3 nominees in this category) La Vie en Rose Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End Alternate choice: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly Dark horses: 300 Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix Norbit ===================================================== These 5 are my weakest categories, so I cheat and don’t count them in my Prediction score. **BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM** (there will be 5 nominations, but I don’t know what else to choose) Counterfeiters, The (Austria, directed by Stefan Ruzowitzky) Mongol (Kazakhstan, directed by Sergei Bodrov) Alternate choices (alphabetical, because I have no idea): 12 (Russia, directed by Nikita Mikhalkov) Beaufort (Israel, directed by Joseph Cedar) Days of Darkness (Canada, directed by Denys Arcand) Katyn (Poland, directed by Andrzej Wajda) Trap, The (Serbia, directed by Srdan Golubovic) Unknown Woman, The (Italy, directed by Giuseppe Tornatore) Year My Parents Went on Vacation, The (Brazil, directed by Cao Hamburger) **BEST DOCUMENTARY** (there will be 5 nominations, but I don’t know what else to choose) Sicko No End In Sight Nanking Alternate choices (alphabetical, because I have no idea): Autism: The Musical For the Bible Tells Me So Lake of Fire Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience Please Vote for Me The Price of Sugar A Promise to the Dead: The Exile Journey of Ariel Dorfman The Rape of Europa Taxi to the Dark Side War/Dance White Light/Black Rain I have no clue whatsoever on these. BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT ?? BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM ?? BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM ?? ---
**Author:** ![Equipoise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/equipoise/32/151_2.png) [@Equipoise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Equipoise)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2008, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/throwdown-academy-award-nomination-predictions/434287/2 "2008-01-20T19:41:13Z")
I missed the edit window to say that the nominations come out early Tuesday morning. ---
**Author:** ![vivalostwages](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/d07c76/32.png) [@vivalostwages](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/vivalostwages)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2008, 7:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/throwdown-academy-award-nomination-predictions/434287/3 "2008-01-20T19:56:03Z")
Though I haven’t seen it yet, I’d say **Atonement** shows all the signs of being a Best Pic nominee. It will go head-to-head with **No Country…**. ---
**Author:** ![Equipoise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/equipoise/32/151_2.png) [@Equipoise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Equipoise)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2008, 9:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/throwdown-academy-award-nomination-predictions/434287/4 "2008-01-20T21:40:23Z")
[QUOTE=vivalostwages] Though I haven’t seen it yet, I’d say **Atonement** shows all the signs of being a Best Pic nominee. It will go head-to-head with **No Country…**. [/QUOTE] Atonement is problematic. On the surface it looks to be everything the Academy would want in a Best Picture nomination, another The English Patient. The only reason I put it in the Alternate choices is that it’s gone practically ignored by the Hollywood Guilds. For anyone who’s new to this I’ll be an insufferable know-it-all and explain. Anyone who knows how the nominations and Guilds work will find this redundant. Everyone else might find it deathly dull, but in case anyone’s interested… There are 12 creative-worker unions (Guilds) in Hollywood that all have their own separate awards. Well, 11 of them, anyway (the 12th used to but it seems they’ve stopped). The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS, or just, the Academy) isn’t a Guild, but members overlap, since people who do belong to Guilds are the ones nominated for Academy Awards. AMPAS and Guilds are very separate things, but they overlap like crazy. AMPAS is divided into Branches. Actors, Directors, Cinematographers, Costume Designers, Editors, Musicians, and so on, 16 in all. Those people become Academy members when they’re invited and specifically join. You can’t join AMPAS unless you’re invited. Anyone who’s nominated is automatically invited, plus AMPAS invites a select few additional people every year. If you’re an actor, and you’re invited to join the AMPAS Actors branch, you’re already going to belong to the Screen Actors Guild (SAG). If you’re a director, and you’re invited to join the AMPAS Directors branch, it’s almost certain that you’re already a member of the Directors Guild (DGA). And so on. As with anything, there are exceptions. For example I believe the director Robert Rodriguez (Sin City, Grindhouse) is a member of AMPAS but he gave up his DGA membership due to a dispute, but the exceptions are rare. So, not all Guild members are Academy members, but almost all Academy members, at least in the creative branches (the ones who vote), are Guild members too. The Academy Award nominations are handled AMPAS Branch by AMPAS Branch. Like nominates like. In other words, the Actors Branch ONLY nominate actors. The Directors Branch ONLY nominate directors. The Sound Branch nominates the sound category. And so on. The only exceptions are Best Picture (nominated by everybody) and the Foreign-Language/Documentary/Shorts categories (nominated by panels). Some branches are not allowed to vote at all, such as the Producers and PR branches. More than the Golden Globes, the critics awards or any other awards, the Guild awards are more likely to show what people _in the business_ (therefore with close tie to AMPAS) are actually thinking, what movies they’re watching and loving. For the [dozens of different awards](http://www.suspended-in-gaffa.com/guilds/AwardsSeason_2007-8.html) that are given out each year at this time, when it comes to predicting Academy Award nominations, they can all be swept to the side, except for the Guilds. Being an awards slut, [I keep track of Guild awards](http://www.suspended-in-gaffa.com/guilds/), and in [this year’s nomintions](http://www.suspended-in-gaffa.com/guilds/2008_guilds.html), Atonement’s been shut out of 7 of the 10 Guilds that have announced their nominations (with one, the Sound Editors, yet to announce their nominations). The actors in their Guild (SAG) didn’t nominate any of the actors from Atonement. The writers in their Guild (WGA) didn’t nominate the screenplay. The Producers (PGA) didn’t nominate it for their Best Picture. The Directors (DGA) didn’t nominate it for directing. The only people who nominated it were the Cinematographers (ASC), the Art Directors (ADG), and the Costume Designers (VDG). (btw, none of the Guilds have announced their winners yet) No one’s quite sure what happened here. One theory is that screeners weren’t sent out in time, another is that it’s been hailed as a “frontrunner” for months, and people don’t like to be pushed around and told what to vote for. Another is that people just haven’t wanted to see it, thinking it’s another English Patient (it’s not). Without love from the Guilds, it’s very hard to get the traction needed to make it to the Big Time. It’s not out of the question though. Anything’s possible. Academy members do like to throw out surprises, and maybe enough of them watched their screeners after the Guilds nominations were set, but before they had to turn in their Oscar ballots, to bring it some surprise nominations in the Top 8 (Picture, Director, the 4 Acting and 2 Writing categories). If the actors, especially, rallied behind it (say, in retaliation for SAG not giving it any nominations) that would be the biggest boost, because the Actors branch of AMPAS is by far the biggest, with the most members. It’s got to have passionate supporters though, because AMPAS uses Preferential Voting in choosing the nominations. That’s a bitch to explain but it boils down to needing lots of #1 votes. Nomination ballots are numbered 1-5 and if you’re filling one out, you can’t just put titles in willy-nilly or alphabetically. They MUST be filled in by preference, because #1 votes are counted first, then #2 votes, and nominations are chosen by those votes. #3, #4, and #5 votes are hardly ever counted, but they might be, if various factors come into play. So anyway, it’s got to have a lot of passionate supporters who’ll put it in the #1 spot (3-5 will not cut it, not with so many other movies competing). (Loose end: once the Oscar nominations are announced, then voting members of AMPAS can vote for every category, except the Foreign-Language/Documentary/Shorts, where voters have to prove they’ve seen the entries) Maybe Atonement does have the supporters even though they’ve been quiet up until now. We’ll find out. I had it at the top in my Best Picture prediction as a lock, until the Guild nominations started to come out, then it got pushed lower and lower. Anyway, all that blah blah was to explain that, if Atonement isn’t nominated, there is a reason, and those of us batshit insane enough to follow all this hooha saw it coming. But we like to be surprised too. I’m game for any surprise, as long as it doesn’t threaten nominations for There Will Be Blood or No Country For Old Men. ---
**Author:** ![Equipoise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/equipoise/32/151_2.png) [@Equipoise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Equipoise)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2008, 9:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/throwdown-academy-award-nomination-predictions/434287/5 "2008-01-20T21:49:28Z")
Blah, I still missed several typos. Sorry for being so wordy and typotastic The Costume Designers Guild is, of course, the CDG, not the VDG. Thought I should clear that up in the highly unlikely event that a CDG member reads that. ---
**Author:** ![astorian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ad7895/32.png) [@astorian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astorian)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2008, 10:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/throwdown-academy-award-nomination-predictions/434287/6 "2008-01-20T22:00:00Z")
I think the OP was pretty much on the mark. And it means Jon Stewart is in big trouble again. The last time he hosted, the Oscars had their lowest ratings in years. This year, they’ll be even worse. NOT because he’s going to do anything bad (though I’ve never had the slightest use for him), but because there won’t be a single movie up for a single major award that anybody actually went to see. Nobody saw “Atonement.” Nobody saw “Michael Clayton.” And when movies like that dominate the nominations, it sends a signal to the public at large: “Don’t bother watching.” So, poor Jon Stewart will preside over the two lowest rated Oscar presentations in the past few decades. ---
**Author:** ![Equipoise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/equipoise/32/151_2.png) [@Equipoise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Equipoise)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2008, 10:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/throwdown-academy-award-nomination-predictions/434287/7 "2008-01-20T22:09:56Z")
Well, there may not BE an Oscars show for Jon Stewart to worry about. It might get postponed, or be a stripped-down version like the Golden Globes. But, even if the strike is over, and the ratings are low, so what? AMPAS doesn’t put on the Academy Awards to bring in ratings. It’s nice if the ratings are high, of course, but it’s not like a network show, in danger of being cancelled because of ratings. There will ALWAYS be an Academy Awards show. Beneath all the glitz and glamour and puffy hooha, it really, honestly, is about the movies, and peers honoring peers. And when movies like Atonement and Michael Clayton dominate the nominations, it sends a signal to the public at large that they should have seen these movies. Those two specifically especially, since they’re fairly populist entertainment, but high-quality populist entertainment. No one expected No Country For Old Men or There Will Be Blood or Into The Wild to be box office smashes, but Atonement and Michael Clayton really should have been. ---
**Author:** ![Key\_Lime\_Guy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/48db29/32.png) [@Key\_Lime\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Key_Lime_Guy)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2008, 2:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/throwdown-academy-award-nomination-predictions/434287/8 "2008-01-21T02:59:29Z")
I predict Sweeney Todd will be “the story” with nominations in all the major categories. Into the Wild will get snubbed in comparison to the OPs predictions. Just for fun I’ll throw out a few dark-horse ideas: Ratatouille for Best Picture nomination Mark Ruffalo (Zodiac) for Best Supporting Actor nomination ---
**Author:** ![Equipoise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/equipoise/32/151_2.png) [@Equipoise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Equipoise)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2008, 4:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/throwdown-academy-award-nomination-predictions/434287/9 "2008-01-21T04:37:12Z")
[QUOTE=Key Lime Guy] I predict Sweeney Todd will be “the story” with nominations in all the major categories. [/QUOTE] Could be, but don’t count on it. Those pesky Guilds again, haven’t been showing it much love. It’s only been nominated for Editing, Art Direction, Costumes and Visual Effects. None of the biggies have given it any nominations, biggies being Actors (Depp didn’t get nominated for a SAG award), Directors (no Tim Burton nom), Producers (no BP nom) and Writers (no screenplay nomination), so there again, if the Guilds aren’t loving it, there’s no reason to think the Academy will, but stranger things have happened. I do think Johnny Depp will get a Best Actor nomintion. He was so good, I’m having a hard time believing that he’ll get left out. [QUOTE=Key Lime Guy] Into the Wild will get snubbed in comparison to the OPs predictions. [/QUOTE] Looking to the Guilds again, they slavishly ADORE Into the Wild. It’s gotten nominations from most of them (Editors, Sound, Costume(!), Directors, Actors and Writers. The actors are especially telling, since SAG is huge, and actors make up the biggest AMPAS Branch. They not only nominated Emile Hirsch for Leading Actor (over Johnny, amazing!), they nominated Hal Holbrook in Supporting Actor, Catherine Keener in Supporting Actress, AND they nominated the movie in Best Ensemble, the SAG version of Best Picture. I know I should shut up, but at least you know, if those don’t happen, why. If you’re right then it just proves that no one knows anything and anything can happen. Personally, I think it’d be very cool if Sweeney Todd got in over Into the Wild. I liked both of them but there’s just something delicious about the thought of a cannibal musical as a Best Picture nominee. [QUOTE=Key Lime Guy] Just for fun I’ll throw out a few dark-horse ideas: Ratatouille for Best Picture nomination [/QUOTE] That already will get a nomination in the Best Animated Feature category (and will probably win) so while there’s nothing preventing it from being nominated Best Picture too, it’s unlikely because there are SO many great movies out there that it would be like wasting a spot for something that’s already going to be nominated and win in another category. [QUOTE=Key Lime Guy] Mark Ruffalo (Zodiac) for Best Supporting Actor nomination [/QUOTE] I wish. Zodiac has been unfairly forgotten during this awards season. I can’t see Mark getting in over Robert Downey Jr. They need an ensemble award at the Oscars, like the SAG and the Globes. Zodiac would be perfect for that, since it’s such a good ensemble piece. I’m not predicting but wouldn’t be surprised at a Best Screenplay, Best Cinematography and/or Best Picture nomination. ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2008, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/throwdown-academy-award-nomination-predictions/434287/10 "2008-01-21T18:57:46Z")
My Predix **Picture:** _The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Juno, Michael Clayton, No Country for Old Men, There Will Be Blood_ **Actor:** George Clooney, Daniel Day-Lewis, Johnny Depp, Emile Hirsch, Viggo Mortensen **Actress:** Julie Christie, Marion Cotillard, Angelina Jolie, Laura Linney, Ellen Page **Supporting Actor:** Casey Affleck, Javier Bardem, Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Hal Holbrook, Tom Wilkinson **Supporting Actress:** Cate Blanchett, Ruby Dee, Catherine Keener, Amy Ryan, Tilda Swinton **Director:** Paul Thomas Anderson, Joel & Ethan Coen, Tony Gilroy, Sean Penn, Julian Schnabel **Original Screenplay:** _Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead, Eastern Promises, Juno, Michael Clayton, The Savages_ **Adapted Screenplay:** _Atonement, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Into the Wild, No Country for Old Men, There Will Be Blood_ **Cinematography:** _The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Lust Caution, No Country for Old Men, There Will Be Blood_ **Art Direction:** _The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford , Atonement, The Golden Compass, Sweeney Todd, There Will Be Blood_ **Editing:** _Into the Wild , Michael Clayton, No Country for Old Men, There Will Be Blood, Zodiac_ **Costume Design:** _Across the Universe, Atonement, Elizabeth: The Golden Age, Hairspray, Sweeney Todd_ **Original Score:** _Atonement, The Kite Runner, Ratatouille, There Will Be Blood, 3:10 to Yuma_ **Song:** “Come So Far (Got So Far to Go)”, _Hairspray_; “Falling Slowly”, _Once_; “Guaranteed”, _Into the Wild_; “If You Want Me”, _Once_; “That’s How You’ll Know”, _Enchanted_ **Sound:** _Into the Wild , No Country for Old Men, There Will Be Blood, 300, Transformers_ **Sound Editing:** _Beowulf, The Kingdom, Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End, 300, Transformers_ **Visual Effects:** _The Golden Compass, I Am Legend, Transformers_ **Makeup:** _Sweeney Todd, 300, La Vie en Rose_ **Animated Feature:** _Persepolis, Ratatouille, The Simpsons Movie_ **Foreign Language Film:** _Beaufort_ (Israel), _The Counterfeiters_ (Austria), _Katyn_ (Poland), _The Trap_ (Serbia), _The Unknown_ (Italy) **Documentary Feature:** \*Autism: The Musical, Nanking, No End in Sight, The Rape of Europa, Taxi to the Dark Side \* Tally 9: _There Will Be Blood_ 8: _Into the Wild_ 7: _Michael Clayton, No Country for Old Men_ 4: _Atonement, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Sweeney Todd_ 3: _The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford, Juno, 300, Transformers_ 2: _Eastern Promises, The Golden Compass, Hairspray, Once, Ratatouille, The Savages, La Vie en Rose_ 1: _Across the Universe, American Gangster, Away from Her, Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead, Beowulf, Charlie Wilson’s War, Elizabeth: The Golden Age, Enchanted, Gone Baby Gone, I Am Legend, I’m Not There, The Kingdom, The Kite Runner, Lust Caution, A Mighty Heart, Persepolis, Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End, The Simpsons Movie, Zodiac_ ---
**Author:** ![Equipoise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/equipoise/32/151_2.png) [@Equipoise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Equipoise)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2008, 9:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/throwdown-academy-award-nomination-predictions/434287/11 "2008-01-21T21:54:44Z")
[QUOTE=Equipoise] **BEST ORIGINAL SCORE** Atonement - Dario Marianelli **There Will Be Blood - Jonny Greenwood** Lust, Caution - Alexandre Desplat Ratatouille - Michael Giacchino The Kite Runner - Alberto Iglesias Alternate choice: **Enchanted - Alan Menken** Dark horses: Grace Is Gone - Clint Eastwood The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford - Warren Ellis/Nick Cave Eastern Promises - Howard Shore **Into The Wild - Michael Brook** 3:10 To Yuma - Marco Beltrami [/QUOTE] I [just read](http://www.variety.com/blog/890000489/post/370020437.html) that these three scores were deemed ineligible by the Academy, so no possible nominations for them. That’s such bullshit. Greenwood’s score is brilliant and deserved the recognition. But, this is my new prediction: Atonement - Dario Marianelli Lust, Caution - Alexandre Desplat Ratatouille - Michael Giacchino The Kite Runner - Alberto Iglesias Grace Is Gone - Clint Eastwood Alternate choice: The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford - Warren Ellis/Nick Cave Dark horses: 3:10 To Yuma - Marco Beltrami Eastern Promises - Howard Shore ---
**Author:** ![Equipoise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/equipoise/32/151_2.png) [@Equipoise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Equipoise)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2008, 10:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/throwdown-academy-award-nomination-predictions/434287/12 "2008-01-21T22:06:10Z")
ArchiveGuy, great picks! I hope you’re right about The Diving Bell and the Butterfly in Picture, Laura Linney in Actress, Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead in Original Screenplay, and Across the Universe in Costumes. [QUOTE=ArchiveGuy] **Foreign Language Film:** _Beaufort_ (Israel), _The Counterfeiters_ (Austria), _Katyn_ (Poland), _The Trap_ (Serbia), _The Unknown_ (Italy) **Documentary Feature:** \*Autism: The Musical, Nanking, No End in Sight, The Rape of Europa, Taxi to the Dark Side \* [/QUOTE] Good for you for taking a shot. I’m not surprised you know more about these than me. [QUOTE=ArchiveGuy] Tally 9: _There Will Be Blood_ 8: _Into the Wild_ 7: _Michael Clayton, No Country for Old Men_ [/QUOTE] Unfortunately, TWBB is knocked down to 8, with the score out now. I would like that, if it got the most nominations. ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2008, 10:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/throwdown-academy-award-nomination-predictions/434287/13 "2008-01-21T22:20:25Z")
Wow. ☹ In that case, I’ll slot in _The Golden Compass_ for a score nod (putting its total to 3). ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2008, 10:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/throwdown-academy-award-nomination-predictions/434287/14 "2008-01-21T22:25:38Z")
[QUOTE=Equipoise] Good for you for taking a shot. I’m not surprised you know more about these than me. [/QUOTE] You flatter me–it’s as much a shot in the dark as anyone else (since none of received US distribution yet, AFAIK).