# Thump will be re-elected in 2020. Count on it. **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 7, 2018, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141 "2018-11-07T16:52:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Telemark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/telemark/32/372_2.png) [@Telemark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telemark)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 6:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/21 "2018-11-07T18:47:58Z")
> [@MortSahlFan](#): > > Bernie probably has a good chance, but I think anyone else would probably lose. I don’t want another conservative (clinton) running with the party of FDR and JFK. Bernie doesn’t stand a chance, and it he would have lost last time as well. The Democrats need new blood, not old. ---
**Author:** ![Thudlow\_Boink](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thudlow_boink/32/320_2.png) [@Thudlow\_Boink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thudlow_Boink)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 6:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/22 "2018-11-07T18:50:39Z")
> [@Telemark](#): > > Bernie doesn’t stand a chance, and it he would have lost last time as well. The Democrats need new blood, not old. The Dems need someone charismatic. The vast majority of the time, the race goes to the more charismatic candidate. ---
**Author:** ![DWMarch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dwmarch/32/1010_2.png) [@DWMarch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DWMarch)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 6:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/23 "2018-11-07T18:50:49Z")
We’re forgetting someone, aren’t we? A certain Mr. Mueller is still investigating and should he find irrefutable evidence of criminal activity on Mr. Trump’s part, that could have an impact could it not? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/24 "2018-11-07T18:51:22Z")
I’ll stress again that new blood is only useful if the new blood is ready. I’m not convinced any of the young Democrats can handle the national stage, which is why you at least need a Sanders or Biden on that debate stage to see what the whippersnappers have got. The absolute worst thing that could happen would be for a young Democrat to be treated with kid gloves by the media and the more experienced Democrats and then walk right into Trump’s fist. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/25 "2018-11-07T18:52:31Z")
> [@Thudlow\_Boink](#): > > The Dems need someone charismatic. The vast majority of the time, the race goes to the more charismatic candidate. This election actually broke that mold. The popular, charismatic ones the Democrats were high on all fell short. The main reason seems to be, too far out of step with their voters on ideology. Something to think about with all these young Democrats being bold progressives. May not work on a national stage. ---
**Author:** ![JB99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/439d5e/32.png) [@JB99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JB99)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/26 "2018-11-07T18:58:31Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > If the election were held today, that’s possibly true, depending on turnout, especially if the Dems idealistically nominate some putz vulnerable to Trump’s smears (cite: “_No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public._” – H.L. Mencken, September 19, 1926 ;)) > > But a lot can happen between now and 2020 – weakening or tanking of the economy in the hands of incompetents, perhaps aggravated by trade issues; more revelations and investigations with the power of a Democrat-controlled House behind them; more idiocy in general from a clueless and more desperate administration; the US becoming more and more obviously a laughingstock on the world stage and useless in international diplomacy, etc. Left-leaning voters might care about those things. Conservatives surely do not. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/27 "2018-11-07T19:00:15Z")
What matters is what moderates, especially Obama/Trump voters, care about. What liberals and conservatives care about is unimportant. ---
**Author:** ![JB99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/439d5e/32.png) [@JB99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JB99)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/28 "2018-11-07T19:02:12Z")
> [@DWMarch](#): > > We’re forgetting someone, aren’t we? A certain Mr. Mueller is still investigating and should he find irrefutable evidence of criminal activity on Mr. Trump’s part, that could have an impact could it not? Doubtful. Trump could choke a baby on live TV and his dumbfuck voters would claim it had it coming. And the Republican Senate won’t do a damned thing. Things like ‘evidence’ simply don’t matter in this universe. ---
**Author:** ![Kearsen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/82dd89/32.png) [@Kearsen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kearsen)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/29 "2018-11-07T19:07:24Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > Sad but true. There is no opposition (so far) that can stop him. Will Pelosi will run against him? She is all over the news today, maybe she’s the new face of the Dems? ---
**Author:** ![Ambrosio\_Spinola](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9de0a6/32.png) [@Ambrosio\_Spinola](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ambrosio_Spinola)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/30 "2018-11-07T19:07:40Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > Sad but true. There is no opposition (so far) that can stop him. I don’t know if Trump will be re-elected or not, but I’m about as confident as I can be that he will never win a majority of the popular vote. That counts for something, although clearly it’s not dispositive. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 7:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/31 "2018-11-07T19:21:14Z")
the way things are trending it could be the GOP wins more elections in the future by the electoral vote while losing the popular vote. That’s possible now because CA is so large and is a very blue state. ---
**Author:** ![sciurophobic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/cab0a1/32.png) [@sciurophobic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sciurophobic)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 7:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/32 "2018-11-07T19:21:55Z")
Trump won only because of razor-thin margins in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. This year the Democrats won every state-wide election in those states (governor, senator, attorney general). It’s not unreasonable to predict that whomever the Democrats nominate in 2020 s/he will win those states. That’s 46 electoral votes Trump can’t possibly make up. ---
**Author:** ![wolfman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/a8b319/32.png) [@wolfman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfman)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/33 "2018-11-07T19:29:30Z")
I can’t imagine why you would think that. He barely won against the most negatively viewed of all possible opponents, and his opinion has gone way down since then. And it is not a fickle hate, it is a deep and abiding hate that is not going away. It would take another epic fuck up to not take him down. ---
**Author:** ![Royal\_Nonesutch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ecb155/32.png) [@Royal\_Nonesutch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Royal_Nonesutch)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 7:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/34 "2018-11-07T19:35:54Z")
> [@wolfman](#): > > It would take another epic fuck up to not take him down. “…and I know just the ones for the job!” ---
**Author:** ![D\_Anconia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@D\_Anconia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/D_Anconia)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/35 "2018-11-07T19:44:17Z")
> [@Ambrosio\_Spinola](#): > > I don’t know if Trump will be re-elected or not, but I’m about as confident as I can be that he will never win a majority of the popular vote. That counts for something, although clearly it’s not dispositive. What does it count for? As you are aware, we don’t elect Presidents by the popular vote. ---
**Author:** ![ebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/c57346/32.png) [@ebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ebb)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 7:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/36 "2018-11-07T19:50:45Z")
Based on his performance at today’s press conference, I think there’s a strong possibility that Trump isn’t even going to make it to 2020. He’s not a fighter, he’s a bully. Now that he has opposition with teeth in the House he’s going to get increasingly tired of defending himself. Even money on him either stepping aside “for health reasons” or declining to run in 2020 (after making a big show of leading up to “The Decision” on his part). Naturally he’ll declare victory on his way out. ---
**Author:** ![Barkis\_is\_Willin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/a183cd/32.png) [@Barkis\_is\_Willin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Barkis_is_Willin)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/37 "2018-11-07T20:07:03Z")
I feel more like the OP today than I did yesterday. My biggest concern has been that Democrats won’t be able to produce a strong nominee. But I hoped some 2016 Trump voters would come to reason. Here in Ohio, Mike DeWine was very heavily advertising Trump’s endorsement for governor. I wondered how this would play out. DeWine won by a pretty good margin. Republicans overall did quite well in Ohio yesterday. But looking outside Ohio to other states, Democrats did alright. Taking back the house is big. And a handful of other states’ governors flipped from R to D. So that’s something. ---
**Author:** ![Ambrosio\_Spinola](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9de0a6/32.png) [@Ambrosio\_Spinola](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ambrosio_Spinola)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/38 "2018-11-07T20:11:15Z")
> [@D\_Anconia](#): > > What does it count for? As you are aware, we don’t elect Presidents by the popular vote. It means that his victory depends on him winning the exact right mix of people in the exact right places and it’s easy to screw that up - so sure, he could repeat his 2016 performance but there’s also no reason to assume it’s preordained either. ---
**Author:** ![BlankSlate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/blankslate/32/80_2.png) [@BlankSlate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BlankSlate)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/39 "2018-11-07T20:16:04Z")
I’m not worried at all about 2020. Trump is too inept, too corrupt and too compromised to survive another election. Much like what happened in his business career, President Obama handed him everything, both peace and prosperity. Only a bumbling incompetent could remain under 45% approval with all of those advantages. He’s circling the drain now. In 2020, that turd gets flushed permanently. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/40 "2018-11-07T20:29:08Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > It’s 2018. Trump wasn’t running for re-election this year. Why should the Democrats have been setting up a presidential candidate? > > What they’ve been doing is focusing on Congress. Now that this election is done, they can begin working on direct opposition to Trump. I thought that was part of the point of spending $70 million on Beto O’Rourke, to groom someone for 2020, even if he didn’t win. Besides, they need somebody new. Bernie Sanders? Joe Biden? Kamala Harris? Not exactly fresh faces. And I don’t think they are going to be any fresher in two years. I’m the first to complain about starting a new election cycle ten minutes after the returns are in from the last one, but come on. Regards, Shodan [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141.md?page=3)