# Thump will be re-elected in 2020. Count on it. **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 7, 2018, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141 "2018-11-07T16:52:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/41 "2018-11-07T20:29:54Z")
> [@Sunny\_Daze](#): > > Care to elaborate? No need to. Everyone else did it for me. Thanks for the good comments. I hope you optimists are right. I hope there are big changes between now and then. I hope the Dems don’t shoot themselves in the feet. I hope Bernie Sanders sits down and shuts up. ---
**Author:** ![Merneith](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/57b2e6/32.png) [@Merneith](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merneith)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 8:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/42 "2018-11-07T20:44:01Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > Sad but true. There is no opposition (so far) that can stop him. Dude, the opposition isn’t even at the table yet. ---
**Author:** ![Omar\_Little](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omar_little/32/269_2.png) [@Omar\_Little](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omar_Little)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/43 "2018-11-07T20:56:34Z")
> [@Merneith](#): > > Dude, the opposition isn’t even at the table yet. You must not follow politics. If you look at the national campaigning done in Georgia over the past several months for the Democratic candidate for Governor, Stacey Abrams, you would have seen every prominent Democrat that are considered to be seriously pondering a 2020 run for the nomination passing through Atlanta. The list includes: Corey Booker Kamala Harris Bernie Sanders Joe Biden Elizabeth Warren Eric Holder John Delaney Oprah Winfrey and I’m sure I’ve left a few off of that list. Remember the huge number of Republicans vying for the nomination in the 2015-2016 election cycle…it was 17! I wouldn’t be surprised to see that many seriously running on the Democratic side in 2019-2020. ---
**Author:** ![Aescwynn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/73ab20/32.png) [@Aescwynn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aescwynn)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/44 "2018-11-07T21:28:43Z")
As odd as it sounds, I would vote for Oprah in a heartbeat and I believe millions of others would too. Michael Moore thinks Michelle Obama might be the right person and that Cory Booker and Kamala Harris don’t have a chance. I think he’s right about that. [https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/nov/7/michael-moore-we-will-lose-2020-cory-booker-kamala/](https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/nov/7/michael-moore-we-will-lose-2020-cory-booker-kamala/) ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/45 "2018-11-07T21:34:00Z")
wife of former president runs for president. Sounds familiar. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 9:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/46 "2018-11-07T21:45:48Z")
He’s gonna need to win some new voters from either the Dems or the roughly 15 million new voters who weren’t eligible to vote in 2016. The demographics have already changed – and not in Don’s favor – such that if the '16 election were rerun today with all demographics voting at exactly the same levels of turnout and in exactly the same percentages for the candidates, that Hillary would win. Now there are plenty of things Dems can do to lose again to Trump. But the numbers are there for the taking if they can get them, numbers that the GOP can’t muster at their best. Republicans lost yesterday’s national numbers by about nine points and it’s really hard to imagine even the crazy old Electoral College breaking crazily enough to win Donald re-election with that kind of spread in '20. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 9:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/47 "2018-11-07T21:50:30Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > Sad but true. There is no opposition (so far) that can stop him. I disagree. I don’t think he’s going to run. What’s in it for him? Lots if he wins, of course, but it was a close-run thing in 2016. He lost the popular vote, after all. Will he risk it? He’ll have been President and it will be far better to be seen as an undefeated one-term President than one who could not win re-election. He can simply cite his age. If he’s canny, he’ll quit late next year ‘for health reasons’ so that Pence can establish himself and run as a sitting President and also protect Trump after his election. This also gets around Trump having a lame duck period. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 9:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/48 "2018-11-07T21:56:55Z")
I could see Trump quitting in the 2nd term (assuming he wins in 2020) so that he can be 2x unbeaten. The only way he does not run in 2020 is some major health issue . No way is he impeached and removed. ---
**Author:** ![Jack\_Batty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jack_batty/32/3201_2.png) [@Jack\_Batty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jack_Batty)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/49 "2018-11-07T22:04:50Z")
I see him quitting too, if he’s reelected. I believe 2020 is also going to see more Democratic representatives and a Democratic Senate, after which Trump would bail quicker than frat boy in the dean’s daughter’s bedroom. That said, I don’t think he’ll be reelected in 2020. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 10:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/50 "2018-11-07T22:20:06Z")
2020 could go either way, it’s definitely not preordained. I think an intellectual, professorly type like Elizabeth Warren would definitely lose. Depending on the mood of the elecorate, someone like Joe Biden night do well if the nation is in the mood for an experienced scrapper. If it’s looking like the people want new blood I’d be in favor of Beto giving it a go despite his already saying that he’s not going to run. There are several others who could win, but certainly aren’t guaranteed to do so either. Here is my partial list of characteristics the ideal candidate would have. 1. Is able to convince people on the far left to turn out rather than stay at home or vote for the Green Party. 2. Appeals to moderates who are tired or afraid of Trump. 3. Does not inspire the far right to turn out to vote against him or her. ---
**Author:** ![An\_Gadai](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/d6d6ee/32.png) [@An\_Gadai](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/An_Gadai)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 10:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/51 "2018-11-07T22:31:15Z")
Once he has razed Tehran to the ground, I’m sure he’ll be popular enough to pull off reelection. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 10:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/52 "2018-11-07T22:32:14Z")
> [@Red\_Wiggler](#): > > He’s gonna need to win some new voters from either the Dems or the roughly 15 million new voters who weren’t eligible to vote in 2016. The demographics have already changed – and not in Don’s favor – such that if the '16 election were rerun today with all demographics voting at exactly the same levels of turnout and in exactly the same percentages for the candidates, that Hillary would win. > > … Are you taking the Electoral College into consideration. 'Cause you know, she actually DID win by the numbers. > [@Quartz](#): > > I disagree. I don’t think he’s going to run. What’s in it for him? Lots if he wins, of course, but it was a close-run thing in 2016. He lost the popular vote, after all. Will he risk it? He’ll have been President and it will be far better to be seen as an undefeated one-term President than one who could not win re-election. He can simply cite his age. If he’s canny, he’ll quit late next year ‘for health reasons’ so that Pence can establish himself and run as a sitting President and also protect Trump after his election. This also gets around Trump having a lame duck period. “Wins” is all he cares about. You’re hypothesizing a rational thinking process, something that thump is incapable of. If he doesn’t run, it won’t be because of any logical analysis of anything, except possibly tea leaves and/or the entrails of a disposable Cabinet member or that hapless “lame duck.” And he doesn’t take advice either. He operates FROM THE GUT not the head. It’s all about winning, or anyway, the FEELING of winning. His gut will tell him whether or not to run. IMHO he will not be able to resist the possibility of equaling Obama’s two terms. To decide not to run would be to concede to the Kenyan Muslim uppity Negro who is married to a chimpanzee. He will NEVER walk away from that challenge. ---
**Author:** ![Guinastasia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guinastasia/32/5751_2.png) [@Guinastasia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Guinastasia)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 11:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/53 "2018-11-07T23:35:04Z")
> [@Aescwynn](#): > > As odd as it sounds, I would vote for Oprah in a heartbeat and I believe millions of others would too. NO. No more celebrity presidents, no more people with no experience. And we’re talking about the woman who brought us _Dr. fucking Oz_. She’s also the one who gave Jenny McCarthy a platform to spew her bullshit. NO. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 11:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/54 "2018-11-07T23:53:41Z")
> [@Aescwynn](#): > > As odd as it sounds, I would vote for Oprah in a heartbeat and I believe millions of others would too. Oprah is perhaps the only Democrat who could lose to Trump in 2020. Even Hillary would beat him in 2020. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 11:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/55 "2018-11-07T23:56:19Z")
> [@sciurophobic](#): > > Trump won only because of razor-thin margins in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. This year the Democrats won every state-wide election in those states (governor, senator, attorney general). It’s not unreasonable to predict that whomever the Democrats nominate in 2020 s/he will win those states. That’s 46 electoral votes Trump can’t possibly make up. Plus with Florida giving voting rights back to 1.5 million felons, and the influx of puerto ricans to the state, it could move the state to the left. However a lot of conservative white elderly people move to the state too, which pushes it to the right. ---
**Author:** ![enipla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/54ee81/32.png) [@enipla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/enipla)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 12:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/56 "2018-11-08T00:01:14Z")
> [@EscAlaMike](#): > > I think it’s still way too early to tell, but it’s been a long time since a President did NOT win re-election (1992). > > As long as the economy is still good, I don’t see any reason why Trump won’t get re-elected. Hoping it’ll be tough if he’s in prison where he belongs. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 12:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/57 "2018-11-08T00:07:57Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > Plus with Florida giving voting rights back to 1.5 million felons, and the influx of puerto ricans to the state, it could move the state to the left. > > However a lot of conservative white elderly people move to the state too, which pushes it to the right. Felons cannot be relied upon to swing anything. First, most of them don’t vote even if they can. Second, while most people think of felons in terms of them being disproportionately minorities, the more important thing about them is that they are overwhelmingly MEN. Adding 1 million men to the voting base at this point in time is probably not great for Democrats. While African-American men are pretty Democratic(85-15 or so), Latino men from Florida are probably closer to 50-50 with Republicans maybe even having a slight advantage with that demographic, and white men, well, that’s going to be a heavily Republican group. As for Puerto Ricans, Rick Scott very smartly welcomed them to Florida and they didn’t forget. Rick Scott got 45% of the Latino vote: > **[2018 midterms: EXIT POLLING | CNN](https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/florida/senate)** > > View CNN's 2018 election exit polls for Senate, House and governor races, including information on how different races, genders and age groups voted. For midterm election results, visit cnn.com/election. And he actually won Latino men. And thanks to Amendment 4, a LOT more Latino men are now voters. ---
**Author:** ![BlankSlate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/blankslate/32/80_2.png) [@BlankSlate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BlankSlate)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 12:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/58 "2018-11-08T00:13:51Z")
Surely you know better, **Adaher.** Cubans are not Puerto Ricans. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 12:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/59 "2018-11-08T00:19:30Z")
A lot can happen in the next 18 months. But, the midterms indicate Trump’s base is still solid. Most of the house and senate seats were almost a 50/50 split. Florida and Arizona senate races may require a recount. Trump has a good chance unless something causes his base to collapse. It would take a significant scandal. There’s always the chance he won’t run. The daily turmoil will get to him eventually. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 12:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/60 "2018-11-08T00:20:10Z")
Puerto Ricans, while not exit polled, were pre-polled and looked to be quite friendly to Scott: > **[Poll of Puerto Ricans in Florida shows Scott better-liked than Nelson](https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2018/06/30/poll-of-florida-puerto-ricans-shows-scott-better-liked-than-nelson-495614)** > > The numbers are even more striking because 57 percent of the poll’s respondents say they’re registered as Democrats [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141.md?page=4)