# Thump will be re-elected in 2020. Count on it. **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 7, 2018, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141 "2018-11-07T16:52:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 12:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/61 "2018-11-08T00:40:35Z")
Trump will be re-elected or not depending on things that are now largely out of his control. I would put even money on a recession happening in the next two years, simply because this has been an overly long expansion already. If there is one, Trump is toast. With the Democrats in the House, Trump will get nothing done legislatively unless he uses ‘his pen and a phone’ like Obama did - which I predict would immediately result in people screaming that Democracy has come to an end. But there will be no major bills making it through the House and Senate. So from here on in, Trump has foreign policy and immigration to meddle with, and nothing else. Much will also depend on how the Democrats in the House behave. If they become serious and move back a bit to the center and start proposing serious and reasonable policy, they can depict Trump as the enemy of progress. If, on the other hand, they lose their minds and start wave after wave of hearings, charges, impeachment trials and float a bunch of socialist legislation no one wants, Trump will crush them. All the Democrats have to do is not be crazy. But with people like Ocasio-Cortez in the mix, I wouldn’t count on it. Democrats may have dodged a bullet in that almost all the ‘progressive’ candidates in tight races lost. And every Democratic Senator save one who voted against Kavanaugh lost. There’s a message in there if they are willing to listen. Identity politics is poison at the ballot box, and socialism is still a dirty word for the majority of Americans. ---
**Author:** ![wolfman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/a8b319/32.png) [@wolfman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfman)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 12:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/62 "2018-11-08T00:45:56Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > However a lot of conservative white elderly people move to the state too, which pushes it to the right. But the oldest die at the highest rate, and every time you replace an 85 year old with a 65 year old, you move the needle a little bit toward the left on issues like gay rights, abortion, and particularly you start to now get people who have lived the hell of getting private health insurance post job, but pre-medicare. ---
**Author:** ![pkbites](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pkbites/32/204_2.png) [@pkbites](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pkbites)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 12:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/63 "2018-11-08T00:50:50Z")
> [@EscAlaMike](#): > > As long as the economy is still good, I don’t see any reason why Trump won’t get re-elected. The economy is good here in Wisconsin and Walker lost. And he lost to a man who will get little if any of his agenda through in the face of A Republican stronghold on both sides of the legislature. In 2012 the national economy was still fairly dismal yet Obama got reelected. I don’t think a white President of either party would have been reelected with that economy, but I digress. In other words, I don’t think the economy is the bellwether it once was and no candidate since Bill Clinton has been able to make it be so. At least not to the level he did. And overall I don’t think the electorate actually knows what the hell it really wants. So I wouldn’t bet a penny on what I think will happen in twenny. Trump does need to stop flirting with gun control laws, like pointless bump stock bans. Or he is going to piss off his base like Bush Sr. did. ---
**Author:** ![BlankSlate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/blankslate/32/80_2.png) [@BlankSlate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BlankSlate)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 12:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/64 "2018-11-08T00:52:39Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Puerto Ricans, while not exit polled, were pre-polled and looked to be quite friendly to Scott: > > [https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2018/06/30/poll-of-florida-puerto-ricans-shows-scott-better-liked-than-nelson-495614](https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2018/06/30/poll-of-florida-puerto-ricans-shows-scott-better-liked-than-nelson-495614) Well, we’ll see. I don’t think that dog has legs. ---
**Author:** ![Merneith](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/57b2e6/32.png) [@Merneith](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merneith)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 1:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/65 "2018-11-08T01:02:00Z")
> [@Omar\_Little](#): > > You must not follow politics. Yeah, that must be it. > [@](#): > > If you look at the national campaigning done in Georgia over the past several months for the Democratic candidate for Governor, Stacey Abrams, you would have seen every prominent Democrat that are considered to be seriously pondering a 2020 run for the nomination passing through Atlanta. The list includes: > > Corey Booker > Kamala Harris > Bernie Sanders > Joe Biden > Elizabeth Warren > Eric Holder > John Delaney > Oprah Winfrey > > and I’m sure I’ve left a few off of that list. Unless you’re going to define political campaigning so vaguely that the word is meaningless, none of those people are currently running campaigns. In fact, none of them have even declared their intentions. Several of them never will. And even if they were, nothing that happens two years before the election will have the slightest effect on the outcome of the voters’ voting. Nobody is going to vote for Eric Holder because he gave a speech in Atlanta for Stacy Abrams. This is not a race yet. It’s barely a conversation. > [@](#): > > Remember the huge number of Republicans vying for the nomination in the 2015-2016 election cycle…it was 17! I wouldn’t be surprised to see that many seriously running on the Democratic side in 2019-2020. Yeah but that was just Republicans being fuckwits. They were trying to pretend that they had so much talent anyone with a suit was a strong candidate. All it did was make everyone look stupid and split the voter attention between a dozen bozos. That’s how Donald won the nomination. He was the only one who could grab and hold the spotlight. I don’t think the Dems will field more than four or five candidates. Biden, Holder, & Delaney will fail to launch. Oprah has better things to do. Sanders & Warren are the only for sures, and I think they’re going to step on each other. I suspect Bernie’s existing campaign chops will prevail. Harris and Booker are interesting candidates. I’m not convinced they have what it takes but I could be persuaded. Hillary’s going to try again, I’m sure, but I think she’ll do nothing but drag everyone down. I’ve seen a lot of agitation for Beto today, but I think it’s too soon for him. I hope he runs for Senate again. I wouldn’t mind if he moves to another state. I think outside of Texas he’d be a shoe-in. I wouldn’t be terribly surprised to see a name or two that’s not on your list, but I don’t expect it to be another clown-car. Anyway, the party doesn’t start until next summer, when people start declaring, and the voters won’t begin to care until the debates are under way. The majority of the voters won’t actually care until after the conventions. It’s absurd to declare it all over before the jockeys even mount up. ---
**Author:** ![Paranoid\_Randroid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/paranoid_randroid/32/18_2.png) [@Paranoid\_Randroid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Paranoid_Randroid)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 1:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/66 "2018-11-08T01:05:27Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > And every Democratic Senator save one who voted against Kavanaugh lost. Wait, how do you figure? That’s not remotely true, unless you meant to include something like “every democratic senator in a highly competitive election”. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 1:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/67 "2018-11-08T01:14:11Z")
> [@BlankSlate](#): > > Well, we’ll see. I don’t think that dog has legs. They certainly don’t like Trump, so that dog won’t have legs in 2020. But in midterms with strictly Florida politicians, Republicans should be okay, just as Texas Republicans are. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/68 "2018-11-08T02:04:43Z")
> [@Paranoid\_Randroid](#): > > Wait, how do you figure? That’s not remotely true, unless you meant to include something like “every democratic senator in a highly competitive election”. Yeah, yoy’re right. I meant the ‘moderates’ who voted against Kavanaugh. Heitkamp lost. McCaskill lost. Donnely lost. Nelson lost. Joe Manchin, for voted against his party and for Kavanaugh, survived. I think other Democrats from Red or purplish states are going to take notice and be more willing to buck their party when it adopts a position that their constituents don’t like. In the long run, this is good for the Democrats. If the moderates start pushing back against the crazy wing, the Democratic party will be healthier and more competitive. The Democrats should consider approaching someone like Manchin for 2020. But I suspect they’ll go with some left-wing firebrand like Cory Booker. And lose. ---
**Author:** ![Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heffalump_and_roo/32/7691_2.png) [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/69 "2018-11-08T02:27:23Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > Maybe they will put Ocasio-Cortez in charge of it, or someone else who doesn’t realize that 67 - 54 is not equal to 2/3\*100. > [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > All the Democrats have to do is not be crazy. But with people like Ocasio-Cortez in the mix, I wouldn’t count on it. Ocasio-Cortez should run for President in 2020.\* Her name recognition is huge without doing anything yet. She has a base, a message, and she can get under the skin of people on the other side. That’s Trump, without the lying. \*mostly tongue-in-cheek. I just found it interesting how much attention she’s getting without having set foot in Congress yet. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 2:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/70 "2018-11-08T02:37:43Z")
> [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](#): > > Ocasio-Cortez should run for President in 2020.\* Her name recognition is huge without doing anything yet. She has a base, a message, and she can get under the skin of people on the other side. > > That’s Trump, without the lying. > > \*mostly tongue-in-cheek. I just found it interesting how much attention she’s getting without having set foot in Congress yet. Well, she’ll only be 31 years old by then. Not Constitutionally eligible. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 3:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/71 "2018-11-08T03:01:21Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > Yeah, yoy’re right. I meant the ‘moderates’ who voted against Kavanaugh. Heitkamp lost. McCaskill lost. Donnely lost. Nelson lost. Joe Manchin, for voted against his party and for Kavanaugh, survived. I think other Democrats from Red or purplish states are going to take notice and be more willing to buck their party when it adopts a position that their constituents don’t like. And Casey. And Klobuchar. And Baldwin. And Brown. And Stabenow. In fact, if you look at the Democrats in Trump-won states and how they voted on Kavanaugh you get the following: WV - Yes. Won IN, MO, ND, FL - No. Lost WI, PA, MI, OH, MT - No. Won If you include “purplish” states that Trump lost you can add: MN (x2), VA, NM as “no” votes that won statewide. I can’t say I see a trend there other than that Democrats run at least 3 points better than in 2016 (and MT is a bit of a special case, but clearly proves that voting “no” was not a death-knell even in a deep-red state). ---
**Author:** ![Lubricious\_Integument](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/82dd89/32.png) [@Lubricious\_Integument](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lubricious_Integument)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 3:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/72 "2018-11-08T03:22:59Z")
In decreasing order of cleverness - 1. Og Smash 2. penis ensues 3. Hi, Opal! 4. Let’s go down to the quarry and throw stuff in there 5. Regards, Shodan 6. Elucidator 7. Thump Try harder. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 3:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/73 "2018-11-08T03:48:05Z")
> [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](#): > > Ocasio-Cortez should run for President in 2020.\* Her name recognition is huge without doing anything yet. She has a base, a message, and she can get under the skin of people on the other side. > > That’s Trump, without the lying. > > \*mostly tongue-in-cheek. I just found it interesting how much attention she’s getting without having set foot in Congress yet. May not be fair, but women are judged differently from men. The first thought most voters would have is, “Oh, it’s another Sarah Palin” ---
**Author:** ![Merneith](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/57b2e6/32.png) [@Merneith](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merneith)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 3:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/74 "2018-11-08T03:59:37Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > May not be fair, but women are judged differently from men. The first thought most voters would have is, “Oh, it’s another Sarah Palin” Oh bullshit. ---
**Author:** ![Gatopescado](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gatopescado/32/5711_2.png) [@Gatopescado](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gatopescado)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 4:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/75 "2018-11-08T04:20:28Z")
No way. _ANYBODY_\* could whip his ass now. I’d vote for Hitler’s charred left nut before either of them. \*_Except HRC_ Goddammit, Democrats, don’t let her fuck this up again! ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 4:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/76 "2018-11-08T04:35:43Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > May not be fair, but women are judged differently from men. The first thought most voters would have is, “Oh, it’s another Sarah Palin” That doesn’t work. Palin was pretty, sure. But she was also stupid. And the stupid overwhelmed the pretty in popular consciousness. There have been men called “another Palin.” That doesn’t mean that you’re wrong about women being judged differently. But Palin is the wrong reference. ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 4:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/77 "2018-11-08T04:37:37Z")
As for the OP, I don’t find it any better than before. As I said in another thread, we’re exactly where we expected to be, so there is no reason for our optimism to change. Convincing people it is hopeless is a win for the other side. Even if you think it’s harder, you should be pushing that it’s hard but we can still win. If you start out defeated, you can never win. ---
**Author:** ![Ashtura](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ashtura/32/2963_2.png) [@Ashtura](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ashtura)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 5:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/78 "2018-11-08T05:15:08Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > Sad but true. There is no opposition (so far) that can stop him. I agree. Unless the economy crashes, Trump’s President in 2020. Hopefully he doesn’t shoot Ruth Bader Ginsburg on 5th avenue before then and nominate Sean Hannity to replace her. That would be a real blow. ---
**Author:** ![Spectre\_of\_Pithecanthropus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spectre_of_pithecanthropus/32/12343_2.png) [@Spectre\_of\_Pithecanthropus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spectre_of_Pithecanthropus)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 5:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/79 "2018-11-08T05:55:04Z")
> [@Thudlow\_Boink](#): > > The Dems need someone charismatic. The vast majority of the time, the race goes to the more charismatic candidate. Beto O’Rourke oozes charisma, yet he lost to Ted Cruz, who has zero charisma that I can see. ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 6:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/80 "2018-11-08T06:08:56Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > I thought that was part of the point of spending $70 million on Beto O’Rourke, to groom someone for 2020, even if he didn’t win. No, it’s because a) Texas is a huge state, and b) taking the US Senate was a big deal. > [@](#): > > Besides, they need somebody new. Bernie Sanders? Joe Biden? Kamala Harris? Not exactly fresh faces. Kamala Harris is still in her first term in the Senate, and you think she’s already stale? Regards, :rolleyes: [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141.md?page=5)