# Thump will be re-elected in 2020. Count on it. **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 7, 2018, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141 "2018-11-07T16:52:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 6:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/81 "2018-11-08T06:23:32Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > If, on the other hand, they lose their minds and start wave after wave of hearings, charges, impeachment trials and float a bunch of socialist legislation no one wants, Trump will crush them. :rolleyes: Your “analysis” is not credible. It’s not like they’re proposing to collectivize all farmland in the USA this term. > [@](#): > > Democrats may have dodged a bullet in that almost all the ‘progressive’ candidates in tight races lost. And every Democratic Senator save one who voted against Kavanaugh lost. There’s a message in there if they are willing to listen. Identity politics is poison at the ballot box, and socialism is still a dirty word for the majority of Americans. This is literally not true. The high-profile races you heard about all the way over in Canada were underdogs in states with massive disenfranchisement. The vast majority of Democrat Senators up for re-election won. ---
**Author:** ![Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heffalump_and_roo/32/7691_2.png) [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 6:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/82 "2018-11-08T06:24:20Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Well, she’ll only be 31 years old by then. Not Constitutionally eligible. Hey thanks! 🙂 I didn’t know that. I had to look it up. It’s always nice to learn something new here. I guess she’ll have to wait until 2024. By then, people’s ire might be eased, and it won’t have the same impact. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Jack\_Batty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jack_batty/32/3201_2.png) [@Jack\_Batty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jack_Batty)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 7:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/83 "2018-11-08T07:41:26Z")
“The Kavanaugh Effect” is a bullshit Fox “News” talking point. They were running congratulatory, “hey we didn’t lose as bad as we thought we would,” segments all based on the same ridiculous theory **Sam Stone** is floating. I suspect that’s where he gleaned his analysis. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 1:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/84 "2018-11-08T13:46:33Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > Are you taking the Electoral College into consideration. 'Cause you know, she actually DID win by the numbers. Yes, if the presidential election had been rerun Tuesday with exactly the same demographic results, HRC would have won the EC majority. Now that’s a hypothetical but it’s not one without meaning. The demographical numbers continue to ooze in the opposite direction from the Don. Republicans are increasingly close to losing white males with college degrees (Dems got an estimated 47% of that contingent Tuesday). Which leaves him with one, count 'em, one, demo – whites without college degrees, whose share of the electorate will be even smaller in 2020. To win, he has to have converts from other sectors of the electorate and I’d be interested in hearing from those predicting a Forrest Trump win where they think those converts are coming from. My caveat to all this is that he is an amazingly cunning and lucky bastage who will also use every tool at his disposal to make it an unfair election. The voter suppression efforts have only just begun. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/85 "2018-11-08T15:56:55Z")
> [@Red\_Wiggler](#): > > Yes, if the presidential election had been rerun Tuesday with exactly the same demographic results, HRC would have won the EC majority. … And in case anyone doubts that [Sam Wang’s site ran the numbers](http://election.princeton.edu/2018/11/07/electoral-maps-based-on-2018-results/). > [@](#): > > … Here is what an electoral map based on the state-by-state House results would look like: > \ > This is done by averaging the district vote share for each state and seeing which side gets over 50%. Uncontested races were treated as 75%-25% for the winner. > > The outcome is 324 D, 214 R (popular margin around 7% at the moment). Compare that with the 2012 outcome of Obama 332 electoral votes, Romney 206 (popular margin, 3.9%), or the 2008 outcome of Obama 365, McCain 173 (popular margin, 7.2%). Those who support Trump, or who have held their noses because he does the one thing they care about _too_ will vote for him. They did indirectly on Tuesday. But \*if \*Tuesday is predictive in any way then the EV will be a solid Democratic win. Of course this is the equivalent of the generic opposition party candidate poll, so we will see. Still, it’s the evidence we have so far. ---
**Author:** ![Ashtura](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ashtura/32/2963_2.png) [@Ashtura](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ashtura)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/86 "2018-11-08T16:07:40Z")
> [@Jack\_Batty](#): > > “The Kavanaugh Effect” is a bullshit Fox “News” talking point. They were running congratulatory, “hey we didn’t lose as bad as we thought we would,” segments all based on the same ridiculous theory **Sam Stone** is floating. I suspect that’s where he gleaned his analysis. What evidence do you have that Kavanaugh didn’t make a difference? Kavanaugh certainly energized republicans. I have seen no reputable source whatsoever disputing that. Additionally every red state democratic Senator that voted against Kavanaugh lost, as well as several purple states. The ONLY red state democrat that didn’t lose was Manchin, who voted for Kavanaugh. Correlation does not equal causation, sure, but I fail to see how you can definitively say the “Kavanaugh effect” was “bullshit”. I am going to need to see convincing sources at least. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/87 "2018-11-08T16:46:04Z")
> [@Ashtura](#): > > What evidence do you have that Kavanaugh didn’t make a difference? … At some micro level of individual races I suspect it did … in both direction that offset each other. Simplest evidence is that the final result of vote margin of about D+ 7 to 8 (which is what I am reading) is pretty much what the generic tracker ran at, up/down/around always returning to, [for a year and a half](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/). Bumps happened each way but the overall vote was boringly stable and where it would be expected to be with an overall unpopular president. From the game of it perspective a very notable part of this presidency is how stable the numbers are and have been from really March 2016 on. Trump rapidly moved from +4 approval to disapproval to -11 underwater or more and has travelled in an ahistorically narrow range ever since. It’s entrenched. No other president has had as _stable_ approval/disapproval numbers going back to at least Truman. (And before that who know?) ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 5:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/88 "2018-11-08T17:37:59Z")
In case anyone doesn’t trust Wang [538](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-2018-map-looked-a-lot-like-2012-and-that-got-me-thinking-about-2020/) did a similar calculus with similar results. > [@](#): > > It would have equated to 314 electoral votes for Democrats and 224 for the GOP. … Of note, there are enough states solid blue, meaning won by 5 or more, to win the electoral college. Lose FL and IA, don’t pink up a single pink one, and the Ds still win. Interesting extension of the experiment - 538 took away 6 points from the Democrat’s 2018 margin in every state to figure a “neutral year” … it still comes up with a D win if all light colors go their respectively colored ways (217 solid D with 61 EVs leaning D = 278 = win) … still a map that favors them. Of course the candidate, the strategy, and the execution, matter. Two years is forever. But as of now the count is not a bad one. ---
**Author:** ![wolfman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/a8b319/32.png) [@wolfman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfman)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/89 "2018-11-08T17:53:26Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > From the game of it perspective a very notable part of this presidency is how stable the numbers are and have been from really March 2016 on. Trump rapidly moved from +4 approval to disapproval to -11 underwater or more and has travelled in an ahistorically narrow range ever since. It’s entrenched. No other president has had as _stable_ approval/disapproval numbers going back to at least Truman. (And before that who know?) That’s the best part for Dems in the future view. There is a historic level of entrenched positions, people who are utterly entrenched. Trump has created a place where typical fence-siters have now fully committed, if not to one side, then at least against the other. He has made a bunch of lifelong Repubs and Dems, the difference is the committed Rs are 60 and over, the new committed Ds are 40 and younger. It’s looking dark as Hell for the Repubs in 2020 and beyond. ---
**Author:** ![Ashtura](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ashtura/32/2963_2.png) [@Ashtura](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ashtura)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/90 "2018-11-08T18:04:02Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > At some micro level of individual races I suspect it did … in both direction that offset each other. I won’t dispute that they energized both parties, but do you think both parties had the same level of energy before Kavanaugh? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 7:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/91 "2018-11-08T19:21:10Z")
> [@wolfman](#): > > That’s the best part for Dems in the future view. There is a historic level of entrenched positions, people who are utterly entrenched. Trump has created a place where typical fence-siters have now fully committed, if not to one side, then at least against the other. He has made a bunch of lifelong Repubs and Dems, the difference is the committed Rs are 60 and over, the new committed Ds are 40 and younger. It’s looking dark as Hell for the Repubs in 2020 and beyond. The country is aging and most of today’s 70 year olds were not Republicans in 1968. They voted for Humphrey ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 7:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/92 "2018-11-08T19:33:06Z")
> [@Ashtura](#): > > I won’t dispute that they energized both parties, but do you think both parties had the same level of energy before Kavanaugh? ISTM that Kavanaugh energized Republicans to the point where the elections resulted in a normal result for a mid-term. Without the disgraceful way that Kavanaugh was treated, it might have been a blow-out for the Dems. Instead, the GOP picked up some seats in the Senate. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 7:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/93 "2018-11-08T19:42:18Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The country is aging and most of today’s 70 year olds were not Republicans in 1968. They voted for Humphrey 1. I’m turning 70 next Tuesday. I was born in 1948. On Election Day in 1968, I was 19. The voting age that year was 21. 2. What is the basis for what you said in your post? ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/94 "2018-11-08T19:46:38Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > ISTM that Kavanaugh energized Republicans to the point where the elections resulted in a normal result for a mid-term. Without the disgraceful way that Kavanaugh was treated, it might have been a blow-out for the Dems. Instead, the GOP picked up some seats in the Senate. > > Regards, > Shodan Disgraceful treatment you say? While some may believe that, this objective observer didn’t find it one bit disgraceful. ---
**Author:** ![VinylTurnip](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/b2d939/32.png) [@VinylTurnip](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VinylTurnip)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 7:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/95 "2018-11-08T19:50:37Z")
Did you miss the part where they asked him questions, and expected him to answer? Utterly shameful. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/96 "2018-11-08T19:53:39Z")
[I predict that Donald Trump will not serve a second term as POTUS.](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=813522) ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 7:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/97 "2018-11-08T19:54:45Z")
> [@](#): > > Did you miss the part where they asked him questions, and expected him to answer? Utterly shameful. That tight “Minnesota nice” smile on Amy Klobuchar’s face when he asked her how often she got shitfaced drunk? Priceless. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/98 "2018-11-08T20:08:45Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > 1. I’m turning 70 next Tuesday. I was born in 1948. On Election Day in 1968, I was 19. The voting age that year was 21. > 2. What is the basis for what you said in your post? With only a brief exception during the Reagan era, most young people voted Democrat. Then they pay taxes. ---
**Author:** ![Jack\_Batty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jack_batty/32/3201_2.png) [@Jack\_Batty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jack_Batty)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/99 "2018-11-08T20:18:42Z")
> [@Ashtura](#): > > What evidence do you have that Kavanaugh didn’t make a difference? Dean Heller (R) voted for Kavanaugh and lost. Phil Bredesen (D) indicated he would’ve voted for Kavanaugh and lost. Sherrod Brown, Tammy Baldwin, Bob Casey, and Debbie Stabenow, all (D)'s, all voted against Kavanaugh and won in states that Trump had won. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/100 "2018-11-08T21:12:31Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > With only a brief exception during the Reagan era, most young people voted Democrat. Then they pay taxes. This long held belief (that voters become more conservative as they age) is an old wives’ tale. They only appear more conservative than the generations younger; they are more liberal than the seniors who preceded them. But we have indeed dug up, energized, if you will, the last dying embers of society’s racist coals. I don’t really know what to make of that. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141.md?page=6)