# Thump will be re-elected in 2020. Count on it. **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 7, 2018, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141 "2018-11-07T16:52:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 9:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/101 "2018-11-08T21:48:52Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > [I predict that Donald Trump will not serve a second term as POTUS.](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=813522) Ah, those innocent, naive days of December, 2016. We couldn’t imagine half of what was coming over the hill. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 3:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/102 "2018-11-09T03:26:32Z")
> [@Red\_Wiggler](#): > > This long held belief (that voters become more conservative as they age) is an old wives’ tale. They only appear more conservative than the generations younger; they are more liberal than the seniors who preceded them. … And allow me to back up this correct statement with [some evidence.](http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/03/new-survey-young-staying-liberal-conservatives-dying-off.html?gtm=top>m=bottom) Love the title: “New Survey Shows Young People Are Staying Liberal and Conservatives Are Dying Off” Look at the second graphic tracking generational preferences over the years. Notice that over the past 24 years anyway Boomer has been mostly flat, D pref of 43% in '94 to 48% in '14 and '18., that Gen X preference for Ds has grown more substantially and consistently, from 45% to 51% over that time period, and that the only generation that has become more R preferring as they’ve aged are the Silents, who, yes, are dying off. ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 2:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/103 "2018-11-09T14:39:49Z")
[Nate Silver has come out with a 2020 presidential election model!](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-2018-map-looked-a-lot-like-2012-and-that-got-me-thinking-about-2020/) Okay, it’s not a real detailed model, but it shows how the 2018 midterm results indicate that things are different now that 2016. I’m sure the doomsayers will gnash their teeth at this glimmer of hope, but that’s what they like to do. 😃 \<- look a smilie of happily gnashing teeth. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 2:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/104 "2018-11-09T14:42:16Z")
That’s a “chagrin”. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 3:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/105 "2018-11-09T15:26:06Z")
> [@Pleonast](#): > > [Nate Silver has come out with a 2020 presidential election model!](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-2018-map-looked-a-lot-like-2012-and-that-got-me-thinking-about-2020/) … As noted though (when I linked to that article a few posts up - and Wang’s similar exercise :)) two years is a long time and this can be considered something like the generic opponent to an incumbent poll. The specifics matter. Still looking at that map and the analysis - if you were a D strategist and you needed to decide where to prioritize (while contesting everywhere, spreading the map, of course) would you focus on assuring PA, MI, WI, CO, and NV, all close in a close election, and especially that PA, MI, WI “Northern Strategy” trifecta, or fight for the Sun Belt (FL, AZ, and even TX)? And conversely, if you were an R strategist, where would you doubledown on? ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/106 "2018-11-09T15:41:40Z")
Sorry, I somehow missed your 538 post (Sam Wang is on my ignore list. 😉 ). I agree with you. I think the main point is that things change. Doomsayers who simply expect a repeat of 2016 are not updating their outlook based on new facts. It’s not 2016 anymore. The latest general election shows that unindicted co-conspirator Donald John Trump does not have an easy path to victory. That doesn’t win he won’t win, and it doesn’t mean he will. Fatalism only helps voter suppression. ---
**Author:** ![UnwittingAmericans](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/d9b06d/32.png) [@UnwittingAmericans](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UnwittingAmericans)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 4:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/107 "2018-11-09T16:00:38Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Still looking at that map and the analysis - if you were a D strategist and you needed to decide where to prioritize (while contesting everywhere, spreading the map, of course) would you focus on assuring PA, MI, WI, CO, and NV, all close in a close election, and especially that PA, MI, WI “Northern Strategy” trifecta, 100%, + Ohio. 2016 was a fluke. Un-fluke it. > [@](#): > > or fight for the Sun Belt (FL, AZ, and even TX)? No. I mean, you have to contest Florida for appearances I suppose, but fuck Florida. Scott beating Nelson means you should write it off, I don’t care how close it was. ---
**Author:** ![BigAppleBucky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigapplebucky/32/178_2.png) [@BigAppleBucky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigAppleBucky)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/108 "2018-11-09T18:29:47Z")
The OP and Michael Moore agree. And Moore said it first. For the sake of life on this planet, I hope you are both wrong. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/109 "2018-11-09T18:32:26Z")
> [@BigAppleBucky](#): > > The OP and Michael Moore agree. And Moore said it first. > > For the sake of life on this planet, I hope you are both wrong. Me, too. ☹ ---
**Author:** ![Brayne\_Ded](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e9bcb4/32.png) [@Brayne\_Ded](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Brayne_Ded)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/110 "2018-11-09T19:31:47Z")
There are just two possibilities: Trump screws up royally and gets dumped. either by the Reps or the voters The Dems still can’t field a candidate who is widely acceptable The only question who will screw up first and worst. Given that the POTUS usually gets a second term unless the economy tanks or he is perceived as a real loser, it depends on whether Our Donald can get through the next two years without pissing off the whole world, and more importantly for him, the Rep voters. If the economy holds up and he hasn’t declared another war or three, he might get back in again. But, as has been suggested here, he might bail out soon after reelection and let Pence sort out the mess. ---
**Author:** ![Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heffalump_and_roo/32/7691_2.png) [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2018, 3:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/111 "2018-11-10T03:14:38Z")
> [@BigAppleBucky](#): > > The OP and Michael Moore agree. And Moore said it first. > > For the sake of life on this planet, I hope you are both wrong. Michael Moore is now saying that there _might_ be a way to get Trump out in the next two years. In [this interview](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Eq1ATbir0s) on MSNBC, (around 7:20) he talks about how he’s happy about the blue wave and how he thinks that Congress _might_ get the President out of office in the next two years. According to him, it would take a few Republicans to not tolerate that the President is a criminal IF the House investigations and/or the Mueller investigation brings some criminal activity to light. ---
**Author:** ![UnwittingAmericans](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/d9b06d/32.png) [@UnwittingAmericans](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UnwittingAmericans)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2018, 12:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/112 "2018-11-11T12:05:48Z")
> [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](#): > > Michael Moore is now saying that there _might_ be a way to get Trump out in the next two years. > > In [this interview](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Eq1ATbir0s) on MSNBC, (around 7:20) he talks about how he’s happy about the blue wave and how he thinks that Congress _might_ get the President out of office in the next two years. According to him, it would take a few Republicans to not tolerate that the President is a criminal IF the House investigations and/or the Mueller investigation brings some criminal activity to light. Fuggedaboutit. Worst case for Repubs is they have 51 in the Senate. Best case, they have 54. So you need every Dem plus somewhere between 13 and 16 Repubs vote to convict. Name 'em. Zero repubs voted No on Kavanaugh. If Mueller’s report has impeachable offenses, then Dems have to make a political calculation whether to ring him up in the House for posterity or just let the facts do their damage. It may hinge on whether the only way of making the facts public is to ring him up. ---
**Author:** ![Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/budget_player_cadet/32/205_2.png) [@Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Budget_Player_Cadet)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2018, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/113 "2018-11-11T19:12:32Z")
A counterpoint: > **[Trump voters stood by Trump in the midterms — but there just aren’t enough of...](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/11/10/18076872/trump-46-percent-solition)** > > Time to stop with the endless diner visits. There were never enough Trump voters to form a majority of the electorate. And that, more than suburban backlash or anything else, is what did in Republicans on Tuesday. The Trump voters stood by Trump and voted Republican, but this time around, everyone else voted for the Democrats. And the Democrats won. […] This was all probably true. (Though, again, wet-noodle Romney got a higher share of the vote.) But it was also somewhat bizarre. Winning the presidency while losing the popular vote 46-48 is within the rules of the game, but it left Trump with a negative margin of error. The math was plain as day that all Democrats had to do was consolidate the people who didn’t like Trump and they’d blow the Republicans out. But the House GOP seemed confident that their gerrymanders would hold. And then when polling in September and October suggested clearly that it wouldn’t, Trump started ranting about the caravan. The political goal here, we were told, was to rally Trump’s base to come back home, which more or less happened. Except 46 percent of the population just isn’t that many people. ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2018, 2:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/114 "2018-11-12T14:46:44Z")
I boggle at “except 46 percent of the population just isn’t that many people”. To me, it means decent people are barely holding a majority. The doomsayers are wrong that we’re certainly doomed, but we’re close enough to worry. ---
**Author:** ![doorhinge](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a5b964/32.png) [@doorhinge](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/doorhinge)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2018, 10:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/115 "2018-11-13T22:50:35Z")
> [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](#): > > Michael Moore is now saying that there _might_ be a way to get Trump out in the next two years. (post shortened) Michael Moore is an asshole. I seriously doubt that there are any Americans who would vote based on anything the asshole Moore says. I’m sure he appreciates any publicity the lame stream media might toss his way. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2018, 10:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/116 "2018-11-13T22:53:41Z")
> [@doorhinge](#): > > (post shortened) > > Michael Moore is an asshole. I seriously doubt that there are any Americans who would vote based on anything the asshole Moore says. I’m sure he appreciates any publicity the lame stream media might toss his way. Do you have any evidence to support this? Many millions of Americans were influenced by a far bigger asshole in 2016. By the way, use of the term “lame stream media” is a not so subtle code phrase for “ignore what I say,” but feel free to keep doing it. ---
**Author:** ![E-DUB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/e-dub/32/403_2.png) [@E-DUB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-DUB)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2018, 10:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/117 "2018-11-13T22:55:18Z")
It may well be that, by tempering his (legislative) excesses, that congressional democrats may enhance trump’s chances for reelection. ---
**Author:** ![doorhinge](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a5b964/32.png) [@doorhinge](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/doorhinge)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2018, 10:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/118 "2018-11-13T22:55:53Z")
> [@Budget\_Player\_Cadet](#): > > But the House GOP seemed confident that their gerrymanders would hold. (post shortened) Just as the House Democrats counted on their gerrymanders to hold those seats. ---
**Author:** ![doorhinge](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a5b964/32.png) [@doorhinge](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/doorhinge)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2018, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/119 "2018-11-13T22:59:28Z")
> [@Procrustus](#): > > Do you have any evidence to support this? Many millions of Americans were influenced by a far bigger asshole in 2016. > > By the way, use of the term “lame stream media” is a not so subtle code phrase for “ignore what I say,” but feel free to keep doing it. Yes, there were many people who could not stand seeing Hillary in the Whitehouse. But she’ll have another chance in 2020. She couldn’t lose three times in a row. ---
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2018, 11:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141/120 "2018-11-13T23:00:27Z")
> [@doorhinge](#): > > Michael Moore is an asshole. I seriously doubt that there are any Americans who would vote based on anything the asshole Moore says. _Contra dico:_ Trump is an asshole, and there are millions of Americans who vote based on what the asshole Trump says. See also: Rush Limbaugh. Irrespective of whether your characterization of Moore is accurate, I think your assumption that assholishness implies lack of influence on public opinion is not borne out by the evidence. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thump-will-be-re-elected-in-2020-count-on-it/824141.md?page=7)