# Tim Cook (Apple) Interview: Over Time Every Person in the World Will have a Smartphone **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Created:** [August 14, 2016, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tim-cook-apple-interview-over-time-every-person-in-the-world-will-have-a-smartphone/762841 "2016-08-14T22:38:13Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2016, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tim-cook-apple-interview-over-time-every-person-in-the-world-will-have-a-smartphone/762841/1 "2016-08-14T22:38:13Z")
An interesting Washington Post interview with Tim Cook, CEO of Apple: > [@](#): > > The global sales of PCs each year are about 275 million right now. That number’s been declining. The global market for smartphones is 1.4 billion. Over time, I’m convinced every person in the world will have a smartphone. That may take a while, and they won’t all have iPhones. But it is the greatest market on earth from a consumer electronics point of view. [http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/business/wp/2016/08/13/2016/08/13/tim-cook-the-interview-running-apple-is-sort-of-a-lonely-job/](http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/business/wp/2016/08/13/2016/08/13/tim-cook-the-interview-running-apple-is-sort-of-a-lonely-job/) Considering how poor and uneducated so much of the world is I just don’t see this happening. ---
**Author:** ![dracoi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/90db22/32.png) [@dracoi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dracoi)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2016, 11:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tim-cook-apple-interview-over-time-every-person-in-the-world-will-have-a-smartphone/762841/2 "2016-08-14T23:04:01Z")
Give colorful picture icons and voice-activated controls, I’m not sure that a lack of education is a big hurdle anymore. Certainly not as big as the money issue. I tend to agree with Cook, but within limits. First, I’d compare the saturation point to other consumer devices like DVD players, microwaves, cars, etc. Nothing has 100% ownership even in the most wealthy communities. But 90%+ seems achievable. Second, it might take long enough to reach this saturation level that “smart phone” is no longer a meaningful term for holographic glasses, cybernetic implants, or whatever else the future has in store. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2016, 1:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tim-cook-apple-interview-over-time-every-person-in-the-world-will-have-a-smartphone/762841/3 "2016-08-15T01:41:16Z")
> [@PastTense](#): > > Considering how poor and uneducated so much of the world is I just don’t see this happening. I’ve been to some pretty poor and uneducated places where smart phone use was pretty widespread. In a lot of the third world, they’ve basically skipped developing landline phones and desktop computers are rare, so smartphones fullfill both needs, making affording one a priority even amongst the cash-strapped. The uneducated thing doesn’t seem to be a barrier. You don’t really need to even be literate to use a smartphone, and as in industrialized countries, there’s usually enough kids who are interested enough to figure out the details and show their less savy family members what button to push to get the basic functions up. Being poor is more of an issue, but usually one large family unit shares one or two phones, so the expense is spread out. And as time passes, the cost of a bottom-rung smartphone keeps dropping, so I wouldn’t be surprised if one-per adult became the norm even in poor countries. Of course, truly impoverished places can’t even afford that. And of course you need to have access to electricty. But on the other side of the equation, super-poor places with no utilities are becoming rarer pretty quickly, so I suspect the number of people who really can’t afford them will fall pretty steadily as the global population gets richer and the price of phones get cheaper. I think Cook’s prediction will become true, at least to within 10% or so, within his life-time. ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2016, 1:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tim-cook-apple-interview-over-time-every-person-in-the-world-will-have-a-smartphone/762841/4 "2016-08-15T01:47:04Z")
This month my church is participating in fund-raising to bring clean drinking water to third-world countries. Smartphones are somewhat farther down the list. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2016, 1:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tim-cook-apple-interview-over-time-every-person-in-the-world-will-have-a-smartphone/762841/5 "2016-08-15T01:50:06Z")
> [@kunilou](#): > > Smartphones are somewhat farther down the list. Like, next year? ---
**Author:** ![ZipperJJ](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zipperjj/32/211_2.png) [@ZipperJJ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ZipperJJ)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2016, 2:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tim-cook-apple-interview-over-time-every-person-in-the-world-will-have-a-smartphone/762841/6 "2016-08-15T02:24:57Z")
Mighty be that something is developed that uses smartphones to help more people access clean drinking water. Or solve a host of other problems that plague the poor. You never know! ---
**Author:** ![rowrrbazzle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rowrrbazzle/32/414_2.png) [@rowrrbazzle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rowrrbazzle)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2016, 4:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tim-cook-apple-interview-over-time-every-person-in-the-world-will-have-a-smartphone/762841/7 "2016-08-15T04:55:53Z")
> [@Simplicio](#): > > In a lot of the third world, they’ve basically skipped developing landline phones and desktop computers are rare, so smartphones fullfill both needs, making affording one a priority even amongst the cash-strapped. Concerning that, here’s an interesting article with information about cell phones in Somalia. [https://strategypage.com/qnd/somalia/articles/20160711.aspx](https://strategypage.com/qnd/somalia/articles/20160711.aspx) > [@](#): > > The cell phone is itself a key player in the two decades of civil war in Somalia. By 2000 clan militias and warlords had created enough stability to enable growth in commercial activity. For example, by 2004 three cell phone companies competed to provide service ($10 a month for free local calls, 50 cents a minute for international calls and 50 cents an hour to get on the Internet.) Each new cell phone transmitter installed required that the local clan chief or warlord get a payment. Everyone recognizes the value of the new phone service, after having gone without for years after the old government run phone company was looted and destroyed. As a result, phone company equipment really is protected by the clans and warlords, who do not want to lose their dial tone. … Cell phone service became one of the things nearly all Somalis would fight for. > [@ZipperJJ](#): > > Mighty be that something is developed that uses smartphones to help more people access clean drinking water. Or solve a host of other problems that plague the poor. You never know! Or let them see plans to make such devices. Or they could adapt the plans to their own conditions. ---
**Author:** ![cochrane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cochrane/32/10441_2.png) [@cochrane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cochrane)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2016, 5:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tim-cook-apple-interview-over-time-every-person-in-the-world-will-have-a-smartphone/762841/8 "2016-08-15T05:02:37Z")
I don’t know what prices are like in poorer countries compared to the more affluent, but in the US, you can pick up a no-contract smartphone for $20. Granted, it’s probably a pretty crappy smartphone, but they are really not all that expensive anymore. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2016, 5:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tim-cook-apple-interview-over-time-every-person-in-the-world-will-have-a-smartphone/762841/9 "2016-08-15T05:32:52Z")
I find it unlikely, if for no other reason than before matters reach that point they’ll probably have been replaced by some other technology. ---
**Author:** ![Nava](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/da6949/32.png) [@Nava](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nava)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2016, 5:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tim-cook-apple-interview-over-time-every-person-in-the-world-will-have-a-smartphone/762841/10 "2016-08-15T05:50:56Z")
> [@Simplicio](#): > > I’ve been to some pretty poor and uneducated places where smart phone use was pretty widespread. In a lot of the third world, they’ve basically skipped developing landline phones and desktop computers are rare, so smartphones fullfill both needs, making affording one a priority even amongst the cash-strapped. In many locations where landlines were both an engineering and security nightmare, cellphones have been as much of a communications revolution as the Gutenberg press was for Europe. For several years, “to buy a cellphone and then rent it to my neighbors” was one of the most frequent types of microloans given by Grameen Bank, I don’t know if it still is. Illiterate fishermen are using cellphones to find out which of the nearby towns will pay best for their catch and GPS to mark the location of shoals (it’s not two separate machines). And nowadays, you pretty much need to quest for a dumb model. > [@kunilou](#): > > This month my church is participating in fund-raising to bring clean drinking water to third-world countries. > > Smartphones are somewhat farther down the list. Mine sends hand-me-downs to third-world countries, along with the usual. ---
**Author:** ![Shalmanese](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/45deac/32.png) [@Shalmanese](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shalmanese)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2016, 8:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tim-cook-apple-interview-over-time-every-person-in-the-world-will-have-a-smartphone/762841/11 "2016-08-15T08:05:06Z")
> [@kunilou](#): > > This month my church is participating in fund-raising to bring clean drinking water to third-world countries. > > Smartphones are somewhat farther down the list. Smartphones are a lot easier to deliver than clean water. Water requires heavy infrastructure delivered to at least walking distance of each house. Smartphones just require a single tower that can service a dozen mile radius and a few Watt-hours of power every day which can be generated via solar power. I wager there are more people with access to a phone and no clean water than there are people with access to clean water and no phone. and pretty much all of those people are going to be buying a smartphone when their current phone breaks down. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2016, 11:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tim-cook-apple-interview-over-time-every-person-in-the-world-will-have-a-smartphone/762841/12 "2016-08-15T11:09:26Z")
> [@Simplicio](#): > > Of course, truly impoverished places can’t even afford that. And of course you need to have access to electricty. In such places people will purchase third and fourth hand phones and someone in the community will have a small solar panel with a plug for recharging cords. This is, in fact, already happening. ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2016, 8:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tim-cook-apple-interview-over-time-every-person-in-the-world-will-have-a-smartphone/762841/13 "2016-08-15T20:51:07Z")
If every person on earth has _any_ kind of phone, it will more likely be a cell phone than a land line, because of the costs of cabling. And it’s a fairly small jump from cell phone to smart phone once the technology is available. So I’d say there’s a decent chance. ---
**Author:** ![ftg](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ftg/32/2801_2.png) [@ftg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ftg)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2016, 9:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tim-cook-apple-interview-over-time-every-person-in-the-world-will-have-a-smartphone/762841/14 "2016-08-15T21:39:06Z")
Out we forgetting the Amish? I have anti-tech religious relatives. No TVs, computers, etc. Note also that smartphones sales are currently [flat](http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS41636516). We are nearing the point where almost all people who want them have them and replacements constitute most of the sales. That still leaves a lot of people. So the percentage is going to plateau fairly soon. It’s this smug attitude that everyone should have one that leads to dumb things like the SSA trying to force people to use 2-factor authentication (which isn’t as [secure](https://techcrunch.com/2016/07/25/nist-declares-the-age-of-sms-based-2-factor-authentication-over/) as people think) starting this month. Forced to back off, of course. ---
**Author:** ![Duke\_of\_Rat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ad7895/32.png) [@Duke\_of\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Duke_of_Rat)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2016, 9:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tim-cook-apple-interview-over-time-every-person-in-the-world-will-have-a-smartphone/762841/15 "2016-08-15T21:49:10Z")
Damn, I’ll have to jump on the bandwagon (or move to Somolia, I guess) one of these days. I’m not Amish, I just don’t want to talk to people. \*OK, I do get a burner phone with some minutes when I travel, but it’s just talk/text and I have no “contract” phone - smart or otherwise. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2016, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tim-cook-apple-interview-over-time-every-person-in-the-world-will-have-a-smartphone/762841/16 "2016-08-15T22:01:17Z")
> [@ftg](#): > > Out we forgetting the Amish? Even the Amish do not completely shun cell phone use. Their restrictions on technology tend to focus on ones that are disruptive to their community and social order. Arguably, a smartphone makes more sense for the Amish than ordinary cell phones. Cell phones are useless without a voice/data plan, which makes them disruptive. Smartphones have many useful apps that don’t require a network, such as GPS, notetaking, calendar/scheduling, etc. They can make use of one while maintaining their isolation. ---
**Author:** ![Omar\_Little](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omar_little/32/269_2.png) [@Omar\_Little](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omar_Little)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2016, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tim-cook-apple-interview-over-time-every-person-in-the-world-will-have-a-smartphone/762841/17 "2016-08-15T22:13:21Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > Even the Amish do not completely shun cell phone use. [![]( " - YouTube") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H2fkXt__lck) ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2016, 10:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tim-cook-apple-interview-over-time-every-person-in-the-world-will-have-a-smartphone/762841/18 "2016-08-15T22:37:07Z")
> [@ftg](#): > > It’s this smug attitude that everyone should have one that leads to dumb things like the SSA trying to force people to use 2-factor authentication (which isn’t as [secure](https://techcrunch.com/2016/07/25/nist-declares-the-age-of-sms-based-2-factor-authentication-over/) as people think) starting this month. Forced to back off, of course. Even more stupid because old folks is one of the demographics less likely to have one than some others, like young folks. ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2016, 11:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tim-cook-apple-interview-over-time-every-person-in-the-world-will-have-a-smartphone/762841/19 "2016-08-15T23:35:55Z")
> [@Boyo\_Jim](#): > > If every person on earth has _any_ kind of phone, it will more likely be a cell phone than a land line, because of the costs of cabling. And it’s a fairly small jump from cell phone to smart phone once the technology is available. [Here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of_mobile_phones_in_use)’s a Wikipedia list of countries by number of mobile phones in use. For the world as a whole, there are 97 mobile phone connections per hundred citizens. Keeping in mind that some have more than one mobile phone (in Hong Kong, for instance, there are 240 mobile phones per hundred citizens), mobile phones are incredibly widespread. And as smartphones get cheaper, those with dumbphones will upgrade. (I have desktop and notebook computers at home and a different notebook computer at work. So even without my smartphone, I have plenty of internet access. But for the average citizen of the world, the mobile phone is the sole connection to the internet.) ---
**Author:** ![TimeWinder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bcef8e/32.png) [@TimeWinder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TimeWinder)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2016, 2:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tim-cook-apple-interview-over-time-every-person-in-the-world-will-have-a-smartphone/762841/20 "2016-08-16T02:10:06Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > Even the Amish do not completely shun cell phone use. And even if they did, I’m pretty sure Tim didn’t mean literally every person. I suspect there’s no man-made object of any kind possessed by literally every human being on Earth. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tim-cook-apple-interview-over-time-every-person-in-the-world-will-have-a-smartphone/762841.md?page=2)