Well so far the market overall is overall up some, “with the three major indexes posting their best weekly gains of the year” …
Many of my individual stocks have gone up significantly this week. In particular my stocks in a major coal company, a pipeline play, an industrial goods company, and a copper mining concern have jumped (even with some correction today).
Many business people apparently really do believe that Trump will bring an era of business friendly tax policy with regulatory “relief” and that such will grow the economy.
That belief and some momentum will push up prices for a bit.
I took out some from one of my kids’ 529’s for this next semester and repositioned the 15 year olds into a much less aggressive allocation, but otherwise I am holding my positions for right this minute. Full disclosure: I am currently positioned very aggressively in what most advisors would call a high risk tolerance posture. Relatively little in cash or bonds, mostly stocks (a mix of index funds, managed funds, and choices I have made on my own). I’ve hung through past crashes with the only complicating factor needing to take some out for kid two’s college expenses … that hurt.
Personally though I see a major risk of a serious new global recession as a result of a global trade war that Trump will trigger. To me the issue is the timing of such a possibility, when to start pulling out of an aggressive stock position and into cash in anticipation of it, and how to decide when it is time to get back in.
For whatever reason both recent stock market crashes, the one beginning in 2000 and the one beginning in 2007 had occurred after peaks hit in September to October. It also makes sense to me that it will be a few months into his administration before the shit really hits the fan. I figure on moving into a more defensive position by August. No need to get greedy trying to call an exact peak. Cash, utilities, global bond funds, and maybe some in a gold fund.
Maybe the crash won’t happen and I will miss some upside and I will have to decide how much to put back in when. But if it does crash then my mark will be the S&P hitting 950 for beginning to buy back in, just a bit over the bottom of the last two crashes. I’d bet on it being more of the 2000 couple of year length to get there and begin to come back up than 2008’s relatively brief run to the bottom.
YMMV but those are my thoughts.