What is your sense, from what you’ve read, of what portion of those getting infected are mask wearers and what portion are not?
No idea. But I have read studies, and used my logical reasoning ability, which indicate that for a disease that is spread via droplets and aerosolized particles, wearing a mask will generally help prevent the spread of disease from the wearer, and give some degree of protection to the wearer. It is a factor, at a population level at the very least.
I have N95 and similar respirators from my woodworking and other projects that require it. Are there mask deniers out there who doubt that those help to protect people from inhaling, say, harmful plywood dust? Would they deny that, if you don’t have an N95, wearing a plain dust mask will at least keep the biggest particles from being inhaled? I just don’t get the skepticism.
I hear you, but the skepticism comes from the apparent fact that it doesn’t seem to be working, on a population level. It’s really as simple as that, that the proof is in the pudding. Maybe not proof that proper mask usage, by everyone and all the time, doesn’t stop the thing. But proof, seemingly, that the best we seem to be able to do with them – again, on a population level – just doesn’t seem to be good enough.
And if one is intrigued enough to wonder why that might be the case, then one could use his logical reasoning abilities to find explanations. They are not hard to find. Hard to prove? Sure. But so are the ones that run the other way.
Could you provide some explanations? You seem to be alluding to something, but I don’t know what that is.
Sure, but nothing more than what would be the obvious explanations, if it were true. Among those:
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That the kinds of masks people are using, in the way that they are using them, are effective for stopping large droplets and the like but are not effective at trapping aerosol particulates.
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That even if they are effective after all, they are not worn at all times by even the most compliant of users, and the resultant unprotected breaths are enough to cause infection.
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That the amount of spread through fomites is underestimated.
Those are the first three off the top of my head.
Ah OK, those are all true because mask wearing is a mitigation strategy, not a solution. The solution is for everyone to be quarantined by themselves. That’s not viable, so people are trying to be quarantined by “family” units. To the extent that’s not sustainable, then mask wearing is a mitigation strategy to help stop the spread that is unavoidable.
Do you think that mask wearing is 100% ineffective (doesn’t ever work) or not 100% effective (doesn’t work all the time) or somewhere in between?
Somewhere in between, I’d imagine, given the ability to trap what they do trap, but far closer to the former than the latter. I mean, I don’t believe anyone would feel comfortable walking into a room with known infected people even if all were wearing masks. At least, not anyone particularly concerned about catching the virus himself. I think deep down most people have a sense of what’s really going on.
What do you base this on?
On what appears to be rampant spread, in many different parts of the world, in places with mask mandates.
My state publishes sources of “clusters”, and hey, the enormous majority of clusters are homes.
I have been auditing MIT’s covid course this year. In one of the lectures, the speaker asserts that rates of infection among staff at mass general hospital are lower than rates among the population at large. Mass general hospital is a place where everyone wears masks, unlike the state at large. She points out that this is direct, population evidence that masks work. That would be surgical masks, because mostly that’s what’s worn in hospitals, except when treating people known to be infectious (or when doing covid testing). I’ve spent too much time in hospitals recently, and staff, patients, and visitors all wear surgical masks (except patients, alone in their private room, are allowed to take them off.)
My daughter and her fiancee work in a busy hospital. They wear masks and face shields all day long. When not working, they wear masks when they have to shop, etc. They’ve remained healthy despite their occupation.
Several times they have gotten tested, then visited with me, where we hang out outside and share a meal as safely as practically possible.
It is a bit unnerving that their biggest risk is socializing with me, but it fills me with joy that they feel the risk is worthwhile.
On the topic of workplace precautions, here’s a post I wrote a couple weeks ago in another thread. Short version: Masks deliver very obvious statistically relevant benefits when compliance is high enough. Which it is emphatically NOT in most of the USA most of the time.
Then apparently wearing masks in that situation works. As long as substantially everybody else around you does too.
Ah, so you’ve somehow arrived at the conclusion that no other factors could be at fault here, such as social gatherings in private homes where people are not masked and those who defy mask mandates. This sort of logic reminds me of the Wyoming town where I used to live where people are still angry that even though schools closed last spring, COVID didn’t disappear and is spiking now.
I’m interested in all the reasons mask mandates do not seem to evidently work. Why wouldn’t anyone be?
I’m sure that if you look hard enough to find a reason not to wear a mask, you will find one.
Assuming you accept that Trump voters are less likely to mask than non-Trump voters, we do have evidence for the effectiveness of masks.
Counties with worst virus surges overwhelmingly voted Trump.
I think we agree that the act of voting for Trump does not give one the virus, so the level of masking would seem a reasonable explanation for this data.
You think that’s evidence that masks work? Dear God, what has happened to us…
We are listening to immoral leaders pandering to ignorant followers…and it is killing us.
Counties with lower mask use have the worst virus surges, in general. That seems like evidence to me. Not proof, of course, but definitely evidence.
Do you think that the incidence of surges is purely random?
Hell, the White House is evidence that not using masks is related to spreading the virus.