Yes Florida did flatten the curve especially compare to NY and NJ. Not sure how that is even up for debate. And their deaths are far below average:
USA : 518
Florida: 426
Cases are irrelevant in a discussion about the spread of the disease? I’m sorry, but this is nonsensical. I think this will not be productive. Bye!
Right. Next, only deaths not in care facilities. Then, only deaths of people under 60. Then, with no underlying conditions. And not healthcare workers, that’s not a real death, it’s a secondary effect.
Basically, any definition to perpetuate the idea this is no big deal, really.
Where are you getting these numbers? And are these supposed to be the average for all states vs. the average for Florida? For what date?
Also, what exactly is the point you are attempting to support with those numbers?
Is this just coincidence also?
(July 29)
The Health Agency of Sweden says that since hitting a peak in late June, the infection rate has fallen sharply. That’s amid an increase in testing over the period. “The curves are going down and the curves for the seriously ill are beginning to approach zero,” Tegnell said. … On Tuesday, Sweden reported two new deaths, bringing the total to 5,702.
5783 at worldometers as of a few minutes ago. Population of Sweden is about 1/2 of NY and they famously never enforced a general lockdown.
Do you know to what extent people are following guidelines, even if there was never an order? Sweden’s whole premise was that they did not have to order people, they would just do it voluntarily. Having numbers go down without a lockdown order does not mean that people were not doing self-imposed lockdown.
Don’t think they were told to voluntarily mask in Sweden. Apparently, Scandinavian hasn’t really been on the mask train at all. Except on trains.
Exactly. Treat people as adults and as a whole, the numbers will plateau at the acceptable risk level the populace feels comfortable with. Numbers will then drop as the virus burns through available vulnerable ones. That level was artificially imposed as the amount of ICU beds in the area. Everything originally was determined to stay below that number. Now that target number has been decreed to be zero or close to it. Some people have a higher risk tolerance and feel orders are childish. Sweden is filled with people with a lower risk tolerance so they followed recommendations at a higher percentage than many of those in the states.
Can you use words to explain your point, please?
nelliebly asked for the source. That is the source.
Do you have a point?
I guess the point is that facts and the truth still matter.
I give up.
Another anecdote that points towards mask wearing:
South Carolina did a science experiment of sorts. The areas that wore masks saw 46% drop in cases compared with areas that didn’t. Since this was an accidental experiment, there weren’t proper controls and so on, so this isn’t dispositive. It should certainly lend credence to the idea that wearing a mask won’t cause harm and will likely help.
Here’s what the South Carolina state epidemiologist has to say:
“This new data shows us what we already knew, wearing face masks works,” said Dr. Linda Bell, South Carolina state epidemiologist. “We’re strongly supportive of these local leaders’ initiatives that are centered on protecting the health and wellbeing of their communities.”
@RitterSport, here is an interesting article comparing the epidemic in the Northeast to the (relatively milder) one in California. It reminded me of the discussion we were having about suppression measures. I was particularly intrigued by the chart showing the case counts by day with the official measures included for color. I was kinda surprised, given our discussion, to see that the social distancing measures in your area were imposed on March 18, at the very, very beginning of the problems there, after which the case counts skyrocketed, and that masks weren’t required in NY till Aprill 15th, at which time cases were already well on the decline.
In short, you couldn’t look at that graph and conclude that social distancing and masks were inflection points.
I’m not an epidemiologist, and I assume you aren’t either. Here’s my post-hoc explanation for NY results, which may or may not have scientific backing.
NY shut down as hard as it could. The streets of Manhattan were deserted – think about that! If everything is shut down, you don’t need a mask, since you’re not interacting with others. My guess is that if you were to find pictures of the NY subways (which had people who couldn’t stop working) before the mandate, you’d still see plenty of masks, because it was pretty panicky here. New York has imposed a mask mandate and has started opening things up – because of the mask mandate, they didn’t see an upsurge. Compare this with Florida or Arizona which started reopening without a mandate.
So, when there’s a near-total shutdown, mask mandates don’t do much good. However, when things start reopening, masks can keep the spread down. I mean, it seems like they’d have to, right?
Like I said, this is a post-hoc rationalization, which is always suspect from a science perspective. It’s a just-so story – it’s easy to come up with reasons after the fact.
However, Fauci and, for example, Dr. Linda Bell from South Carolina, are experts in epidemiology. Don’t trust me, trust them. They say that masks work.
I am also not an epidemiologist. So yeah, I’m guessing just as much as you are.
I do know statistics, though. And I know that the story from South Carolina, as well as the the one from Kansas linked to within it, would get shredded apart by any student who could pass an intro stats course. In fact, both are typical textbook examples of how not to draw conclusions.
But, you’re drawing the similar conclusions from even fewer statistics. You’re just looking at a pattern (mask mandate --> no obvious drop) and drawing a conclusion. You’re not looking at any of the other facts (NY shut down hard, everyone who could work from home was working from home, etc), and you’re also ignoring the lack of surge after things started opening up. That happened in other states without a mask mandate.
Sure, there could be many explanations, but the one that stops my spittle from reaching your face seems like a good one.