# Tony Blair's speech -- "History will forgive" **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [July 18, 2003, 11:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tony-blairs-speech-history-will-forgive/189357 "2003-07-18T11:05:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![MMI](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/53a042/32.png) [@MMI](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MMI)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2003, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tony-blairs-speech-history-will-forgive/189357/21 "2003-07-18T14:59:10Z")
John Mace: My interpretation of that first statement is different than yours. I read it as saying that at least we took down Saddam Hussein the war criminal for his past crimes, rather then as a prophylactic measure against future actions (which would be a no-no without UN authorization). ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2003, 3:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tony-blairs-speech-history-will-forgive/189357/22 "2003-07-18T15:32:11Z")
Just another standard rhetorical tactic, this time an attempt to invalidate the opposing argument without granting it: “Even if you were, somehow, right about this detail, you would still be supporting the overall issue.” Which, of course, is just more spin from an expert. I did like Blair’s exhortation about America and Europe uniting against the common world threat (assuming it exists in the form they say). Would that be New Europe or Old Europe with which America must unite? What the hell happened with the guy? I never used to think of him as an ideologue, willing to look for facts to support his unshakeable, unconsidered understanding of The Truth. Is he thinking that he doesn’t dare grasp the nettle and admit he might have been wrong (or, worse for him, fooled). Is he taking the only approach that he thinks has a chance to keep him in office, even depending as it does on the mere hope of having some evidence turn up later? ---
**Author:** ![Mtgman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b5a626/32.png) [@Mtgman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mtgman)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2003, 3:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tony-blairs-speech-history-will-forgive/189357/23 "2003-07-18T15:37:00Z")
> [@](#): > > Let us say one thing: If we are wrong, we will have destroyed a threat that, at its least, is responsible for inhuman carnage and suffering. That is something I am confident history will forgive. But if our critics are wrong, if we are right, as I believe with every fiber of instinct and conviction I have that we are, and we do not act, then we will have hesitated in the face of this menace when we should have given leadership. > > That is something history will not forgive. Well, since the US and Britain will probably be writing the history books, I’d guess this is probably a fairly accurate prediction. Kind of a non-starter IMHO. Far more troubling to me was the [interview with Bush/Blair](http://www.cnn.com/2003/US/07/17/bush.blair.presser.transcript/) where Bush said > [@](#): > > we won’t be proven wrong. > … I believe that we will find the truth. And the truth is he was developing a program for weapons of mass destruction. > … > But we will bring the weapons, and, of course, we will bring the information forward on the weapons when they find them. The first bit, the piece which has been uber widely quoted, looks like shifting the burden of proof. The burden of proof is on the war-makers to prove their justification BEFORE they fire bullets. Then the trial balloon about “programs” as opposed to actual weapons. Still, he’s still saying that real, tangible evidence will be found and presented. If he means evidence of “programs” I’ll be pretty pissed. I’m ready to see real weapons. I’m not sure how long I’ll be willing to wait though. I was never convinced Iraq was an iminent threat, although the state may have been in enough chaos, or surely would have been if Saddam had died and his sons tried to take over, that terrorists may have been able to nick WMD components from them. I don’t believe they would have had the co-operation of Saddam’s Regime in doing this though. Quite frankly the former Soviet Union is a far larger source of these components and I’m far more concerned about terrorists nicking some of those than I was about them being supplied from Iraq. Saddam, IMHO and assuming he had any left at all, was keeping what tiny bit of his former arsenal may have remained under extremely tight control. Still, the fact remains, it is Iraq we attacked and occupied. Hopefully there will be conclusive evidence soon that there was a good reason. I had hoped for a reason beforehand and hadn’t seen a reason which held up when placed in the opposite side of the balance from the lives of the human beings which would assuredly be ended by the war. Enjoy, Steven ---
**Author:** ![december](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/838e76/32.png) [@december](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/december)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2003, 3:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tony-blairs-speech-history-will-forgive/189357/24 "2003-07-18T15:54:48Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Mtgman \* > The first bit, the piece which has been uber widely quoted, looks like shifting the burden of proof. I agree. > [@](#): > > The burden of proof is on the war-makers to prove their justification BEFORE they fire bullets. That’s the question. This wasn’t what UN Resolution 1441 said. The burden was on Saddam to prove that he didn’t have WMDs or WMD programs. And, it goes against practical common sense IMHO. We were reminded on 9/11 that unthinkable things can really occur. A preventive war should be based on more than a vague suspicion. However, a \*likelihood \*that Saddam was still trying to develop nukes seems like adquate justification to me. ---
**Author:** ![MLS](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/919ad9/32.png) [@MLS](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MLS)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2003, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tony-blairs-speech-history-will-forgive/189357/25 "2003-07-18T16:30:12Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by yojimbo \* > \*\*Christ almighty. Almost brings a tear to the eye doesn’t it. Not. \*\* Well, it does to me. Sorry that offends you. I guess I’m just an old sentimental fool, but it kind of changed the world I live in. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2003, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tony-blairs-speech-history-will-forgive/189357/26 "2003-07-18T16:32:47Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by MLS \* > \*\* but it kind of changed the world I live in. \*\* Of course, but at this stage I think politicians are using our feelings to their own ends. ---
**Author:** ![MLS](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/919ad9/32.png) [@MLS](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MLS)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2003, 4:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tony-blairs-speech-history-will-forgive/189357/27 "2003-07-18T16:39:36Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by spanna \* > \*\*Slightly off topic but bear with me. > > In the UK we have the case of a man called Tony Martin. A farmer who lived alone. One night two men tried to break into his house. > > Mr Martin picked up his shotgun and went to investigate. > > He shot at the young men who were in his house. One of them later bled to death. > > Both men had criminal records. > > Mr Martin is in Jail for Murder because he did not take the chance that the two men might hurt him first if he didn’t act. > Now lets try some substitutions > > Mr Martin (USA + UK) > > Two burglers (Saddam Hussein) > > We think we may be at risk from Saddam (no proof, no sign of intent just our suspicions). > > We act first to prevent harm that MAY happen in the future, despite protestations from most of the rest of the world. > > Perhaps if Tony Martin had said that “History would look kindly on him for getting rid of such bad men” he would have got off > > Anybody believe he would have … no nor me. > > If anything Tony Martins case is more compelling than Blair/GWB’s but he is in prison (maybe we should prepare the cell next door) \*\* Assuming the facts to be as you have presented them (and I have no reason not to do so), Tony Martin does not belong in jail IMHO. It sure sounds to me like an open and shut case of self defense. Now I don’t know the relative laws and interpretations thereof in the UK vs. the US, so perhaps things are different there. And I’m not a lawyer, and am well aware that there are different laws and interpretations thereof from state to state here. And there may be other circumstances that you didn’t have room to explain. With all those caveats, it’s hard for me to imagine a jury that would convict a person who was defending himself. It’s my understanding that if you have a valid reason for believing your life to be in danger, you are justified in taking any measure, including lethal ones, to protect yourself. At least that’s how I’d vote if I were on the jury. So, yes, I think there’s a good chance he would be found not guilty here. ---
**Author:** ![yojimbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/yojimbo/32/232_2.png) [@yojimbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/yojimbo)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2003, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tony-blairs-speech-history-will-forgive/189357/28 "2003-07-18T16:45:51Z")
**MLS** I cried looking at the TV on 9/11 but that’s not the point. This guy is linking remembering 9/11 to Blair giving a speech which was mainly about the reasons for a war with a country that had fuck all to do with 9/11. Using 9/11 is offensive. ---
**Author:** ![yojimbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/yojimbo/32/232_2.png) [@yojimbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/yojimbo)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2003, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tony-blairs-speech-history-will-forgive/189357/29 "2003-07-18T16:53:55Z")
**MLS** Tony Martin shot the kid(burglar) in the back while he was running away. > [@](#): > > Three months before the shooting, crooks had broken into the house and taken £6,000 worth of furniture. > > Burglar Fred Barras, 16, was killed while fleeing Martin’s house > Martin distrusted the police and was said to have begun fearing for his life. He slept with his clothes and boots on and reportedly kept his gun primed and ready by his bedside. > > When his trial began in April 2000 Martin argued that he had genuinely been acting in self-defence. > > But it emerged the pair had been shot as they tried to flee through a window. > > Jurors also heard that Martin had a history of gun-related misbehaviour, including firing upon a car six years before - an incident which led to his shotgun certificate being revoked. [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/england/norfolk/3009769.stm](http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/england/norfolk/3009769.stm) ---
**Author:** ![tomndebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b9e5f3/32.png) [@tomndebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomndebb)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2003, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tony-blairs-speech-history-will-forgive/189357/30 "2003-07-18T17:13:07Z")
> [@](#): > > Let us say one thing: If we are wrong, we will have destroyed a threat that, at its least, is responsible for inhuman carnage and suffering. Basically, he is lying in this sentence. The suffering and carnage are real. However, the gross violations of warfare, (as opposed to secret police activity, the kind supported by the U.S. in IUran and the U.K. in Malaysia), the use of chemical weapons, the mass executions, etc., have, so far, been tied to activities that were over ten years old. This does not constitute a _threat_ (future action). It particularly does not indicate a _threat_ against two powerful, distant nations when Hussein’s hostilities have all been delivered against opponents that he perceived as weaker in neighboring countries. > [@](#): > > This wasn’t what UN Resolution 1441 said. The burden was on Saddam to prove that he didn’t have WMDs or WMD programs. And however, grudgingly and with whatever backing and filling, Hussein was permitting the UN inspection teams to return to provide that evidence. It is pretty much the epitome of dishonest bullying to claim that he failed to do something, the compliance with which was interrupted by the extra-legal invasion of his country. Will Blair and Bush be “forgiven” by history? Possibly–if Bush and Blair actually take legitimate steps to bring peace to the region instead of the rather hack job they have so far demonstrated in Afghanistan and show few signs of bettering in Iraq. ---
**Author:** ![Spavined\_Gelding](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/958977/32.png) [@Spavined\_Gelding](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spavined_Gelding)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2003, 5:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tony-blairs-speech-history-will-forgive/189357/31 "2003-07-18T17:18:30Z")
I heard excerpts of PM Blair’s speech to Congress, including those selected by **December**. The PM has an ability and skill not shared by our President or by very many American politicians. He is a compelling and articulate speaker. That is a skill that is required of any British politician because of the nature of political debate in that parliamentary system. A person can not succeed in the British system unless he can put a complete and coherent sentence together. That is to the Prime Minister’s credit. His speech, however, did not address the question of the moment, which is not why Tony Blair, and by extension Bush-Cheney-Rumsfeld, thought going to war against Iraq was a good idea or the only valid option available, but rather is why the American people should think that it was a good idea/only option in view of the revelations about the weakness of the factual basis for the argument for the war. Instead the Prime Minister broke out the Boogie Man argument. The Boogie Man argument is this: There may not be a Boogie Man under my bed. You have looked under the bed and you did not see one. But _if_ there is a Boogie Man down there and _if_ he comes out during the night and eats me, you sure will feel sorry in the morning. That sort of argument may be rational coming from a five year old, but it is unbecoming from the mouth of a head of state. As far as 9/11 is concerned, it is well and good to invoke 9/11 for government policy but sooner or later it will start to wear thin. You can only waive the bloody shirt for so long. I am still waiting for a demonstrated, as opposed to speculative and conjectural, connection between 9/11 and Iraq. It was a delight listening to a man who knows his way around the language. When the Brits throw him out maybe President Rumsfeld can hire him as a speech writer. ---
**Author:** ![Mtgman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b5a626/32.png) [@Mtgman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mtgman)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2003, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tony-blairs-speech-history-will-forgive/189357/32 "2003-07-18T17:47:20Z")
> [@](#): > > _Originally posted by december_ > \*\*The burden was on Saddam to prove that he didn’t have WMDs or WMD programs. \*\* And the burden was on the UN to determine if he was in breech or not. And the burden was on the UN to punish him if he was in breech. I agree that a nation-state can take action to protect itself if the UN processes break down. States are still autonomous, the UN is a facilitator, not a sovereign. Bush didn’t prove that the UN had broken down. Nor did he prove the threat to the US was so imminent as to justify unilateral action. As of now he’s finding it hard to show that a threat has ever existed at all. Enjoy, Steven ---
**Author:** ![MLS](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/919ad9/32.png) [@MLS](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MLS)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2003, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tony-blairs-speech-history-will-forgive/189357/33 "2003-07-18T18:46:25Z")
yo, Glad I added all the disclaimers to my comments on the Tony Martin issue. If the burglars were running away, that’s a whole different story. IMHO that makes it less comparable to the current middle east situation, though. We will doubtless continue to disagree on that issue, which of course I respect your right to do. ---
**Author:** ![rjung](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/45deac/32.png) [@rjung](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rjung)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2003, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tony-blairs-speech-history-will-forgive/189357/34 "2003-07-18T19:40:30Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by december \* > The burden was on Saddam to prove that he didn’t have WMDs or WMD programs. Hey, **december,** I believe you’re a goat-fleching monkey-raping collector of child pornography. The burden of proof is now on YOU to prove you don’t flech goats, rape monkeys, and stock up on kiddie porn. Can you produce the proof, or shall we inform the authorities? ---
**Author:** ![tomndebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b9e5f3/32.png) [@tomndebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomndebb)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2003, 7:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tony-blairs-speech-history-will-forgive/189357/35 "2003-07-18T19:50:18Z")
> [@](#): > > goat-fleching **december** puts French arrows on goats? ---
**Author:** ![december](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/838e76/32.png) [@december](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/december)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2003, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tony-blairs-speech-history-will-forgive/189357/36 "2003-07-18T20:03:56Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by rjung \* > Hey, **december,** I believe you’re a goat-fleching monkey-raping collector of child pornography. How did you find out? :eek: > [@](#): > > The burden of proof is now on YOU to prove you don’t flech goats, rape monkeys, and stock up on kiddie porn. The difference is that I haven’t raped any monkeys in the past (At least, I wasn’t caught!) Saddam did acquire an arsenal of WMDs, did seek nuclear weapons, did use WMDs, invade Iran and Kuwait, did kill millions of people, did lose a war of aggression that he started. As conditions of being left in power, he did agree to stop doing all those bad things, and he did agree to prove that he had stopped. ---
**Author:** ![Monster104](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/c6cbf5/32.png) [@Monster104](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monster104)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2003, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tony-blairs-speech-history-will-forgive/189357/37 "2003-07-18T20:05:20Z")
> [@](#): > > Basically, he is lying in this sentence. The suffering and carnage are real. However, the gross violations of warfare, (as opposed to secret police activity, the kind supported by the U.S. in IUran and the U.K. in Malaysia), the use of chemical weapons, the mass executions, etc., have, so far, been tied to activities that were over ten years old. This does not constitute a threat (future action). It particularly does not indicate a threat against two powerful, distant nations when Hussein’s hostilities have all been delivered against opponents that he perceived as weaker in neighboring countries. He never specified “gross violations of warfare”. He said “responsible for inhuman carnage and suffering”. That means he is also including all the women raped and executed by his regime, as well as the people that ‘disappeared’, he means the children that were imprisoned, etc. And just because a crime was 10 years old doesn’t mean you’re suddenly exonerated for them, ESPECIALLY for crimes of that extent. And I feel that being a threat to humanity is as good of a reason for removing someone from power as anything else. ---
**Author:** ![iampunha](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/74df32/32.png) [@iampunha](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iampunha)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2003, 9:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tony-blairs-speech-history-will-forgive/189357/38 "2003-07-18T21:17:57Z")
I take it, **december** , that you then do not disagree with the content of my post:) ---
**Author:** ![Mtgman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b5a626/32.png) [@Mtgman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mtgman)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2003, 9:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tony-blairs-speech-history-will-forgive/189357/39 "2003-07-18T21:41:30Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by december \* > > > [@](#): > > > > _Originally posted by rjung_ > > Hey, december, I believe you’re a goat-fleching monkey-raping collector of child pornography. > > \*\*How did you find out? :eek: \*\* Well, [you admitted it.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?postid=3564914&highlight=I'm+a+republican#post3564914) :evil: Enjoy, Steven ---
**Author:** ![Eva\_Luna](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e495f1/32.png) [@Eva\_Luna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Eva_Luna)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2003, 10:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tony-blairs-speech-history-will-forgive/189357/40 "2003-07-18T22:27:38Z")
The plot thickens (maybe): [http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=574&ncid=721&e=1&u=/nm/20030718/wl\_nm/iraq\_britain\_scientist\_dc](http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=574&ncid=721&e=1&u=/nm/20030718/wl_nm/iraq_britain_scientist_dc) Anyone want to place bets on whether this poor guy’s apparent murder was related to his former role as a weapons inspector? I always thought the level of gun-related violence in the UK was pretty darn low in general… [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tony-blairs-speech-history-will-forgive/189357.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tony-blairs-speech-history-will-forgive/189357.md?page=3)