# Tony Blair's speech -- "History will forgive" **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [July 18, 2003, 11:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tony-blairs-speech-history-will-forgive/189357 "2003-07-18T11:05:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![Desmostylus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c57346/32.png) [@Desmostylus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Desmostylus)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2003, 5:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tony-blairs-speech-history-will-forgive/189357/121 "2003-07-20T05:37:36Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by leander \* > \*\*But to say that unemployment was higher under Clinton is spurious and silly. \*\* It’s factually correct. To say that unemployment is currently the at highest level in 20 years, or in 10 years, is factually _incorrect_. > [@](#): > > _Originally posted by tomndebb_ > **…this hijack is now at an end.** Cite? 😉 ---
**Author:** ![milroyj](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/a88e57/32.png) [@milroyj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/milroyj)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2003, 1:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tony-blairs-speech-history-will-forgive/189357/122 "2003-07-20T13:27:58Z")
Did GDP experience two (or more) consecutive quarters of negative growth? When? That’s what I am asking for a cite on. ---
**Author:** ![system](https://global.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/original/2X/e/e489c3b7d8fce19c4b355dd4fc3f88cc39c34b87.png) [@system](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/system)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2003, 1:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tony-blairs-speech-history-will-forgive/189357/123 "2003-07-20T13:34:19Z")
Milly: The two consecutive quarters is not a hard and fast definition. It is one of several rules of thumb. One can debate whether the economic performance over the past three years has been a recession or not, but the 2 quarters is but one benchmark. ---
**Author:** ![milroyj](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/a88e57/32.png) [@milroyj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/milroyj)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2003, 1:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tony-blairs-speech-history-will-forgive/189357/124 "2003-07-20T13:39:38Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by tomndebb \* > **You are now pretending that there was no such event, although it was not as though no one else noted it, including [the St. Louis Federal Reserve](http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/02/11/Dueker.pdf), [the Chicago Federal Reserve]([www.chicagofed.org/publications/economicperspectives/](http://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economicperspectives/) 2002/3qepart2.pdf), the UAW, and a few other groups.** Your second link doesn’t work, and a link to the UAW is just a tad biased, don’t ya think? ---
**Author:** ![system](https://global.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/original/2X/e/e489c3b7d8fce19c4b355dd4fc3f88cc39c34b87.png) [@system](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/system)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2003, 1:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tony-blairs-speech-history-will-forgive/189357/125 "2003-07-20T13:44:12Z")
I believe, to head off the inevitable return that the following is necessary: [http://www.moneychimp.com/glossary/recession.htm](http://www.moneychimp.com/glossary/recession.htm) **Recession** > [@](#): > > Two consecutive quarters of declining GDP. > > An alternate definition is any economic downturn significant enough to be declared a recession by the National Bureau of Economic Research, based on employment data and other indicators; see the NBER’s website, [www.nber.org](http://www.nber.org). Other definitions are also advanced although in re the US they may or may not be that relied on. Further to this, from teh NBER on this [http://www.nber.org/cycles/november2001/](http://www.nber.org/cycles/november2001/) > [@](#): > > **FAQs** > > _Q: The NBER has dated the beginning of the recession in March 2001. Does this mean that the attacks of September 11 did not have a role in causing the recession?_ > > A. No. Before the attacks, it is possible that the decline in the economy would have been too mild to qualify as a recession. The attacks clearly deepened the contraction and may have been an important factor in turning the episode into a recession. > > _Q: The financial press often states the definition of a recession as two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. How does that relate to the NBER’s recession dating procedure?_ > > A: **Most of the recessions identified by our procedures do consist of two or more quarters of declining real GDP, but not all of them.** But our procedure differs in a number of ways. First, we use monthly indicators to arrive at a monthly chronology. Second, we use indicators subject to much less frequent revision. Third, we consider the depth of the decline in economic activity. Recall that our definition includes the phrase, “a significant decline in activity.” Now, I do hope that this settles the issue. Usually it is not helpful to argue from ignorance. ---
**Author:** ![system](https://global.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/original/2X/e/e489c3b7d8fce19c4b355dd4fc3f88cc39c34b87.png) [@system](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/system)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2003, 1:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tony-blairs-speech-history-will-forgive/189357/126 "2003-07-20T13:48:39Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by milroyj \* > \*\*Your second link doesn’t work, and a link to the UAW is just a tad biased, don’t ya think? \*\* Don’t be absurd. Tom was simply offering up (yet more) evidence of the recession being noted. Now you’ve had your fun, run along and play now. Oh, the link is [http://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economicperspectives/2002/3qepart2.pdf](http://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economicperspectives/2002/3qepart2.pdf) for the Chicago Fed. ---
**Author:** ![milroyj](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/a88e57/32.png) [@milroyj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/milroyj)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2003, 2:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tony-blairs-speech-history-will-forgive/189357/127 "2003-07-20T14:00:21Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Collounsbury \* > \*\*Usually it is not helpful to argue from ignorance. \*\* Nor is it helpful to argue from arrogance. ---
**Author:** ![system](https://global.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/original/2X/e/e489c3b7d8fce19c4b355dd4fc3f88cc39c34b87.png) [@system](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/system)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2003, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tony-blairs-speech-history-will-forgive/189357/128 "2003-07-20T14:02:02Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by milroyj \* > \*\*Nor is it helpful to argue from arrogance. \*\* Sure it is. And at least 3.5 times more fun as well. The most fun is actually knowing what one is talking about, although that is a bourgeouis luxury in some parts. ---
**Author:** ![London\_Calling](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/49beb7/32.png) [@London\_Calling](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/London_Calling)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2003, 2:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tony-blairs-speech-history-will-forgive/189357/129 "2003-07-20T14:03:27Z")
Ah yes, Recession: A weapon of mass devaluation. ---
**Author:** ![milroyj](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/a88e57/32.png) [@milroyj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/milroyj)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2003, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tony-blairs-speech-history-will-forgive/189357/130 "2003-07-20T15:31:00Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Collounsbury \* > **Don’t be absurd. Tom was simply offering up (yet more) evidence of the recession being noted.** The UAW noting a recession is rather like PETA noting the size of chicken cages. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2003, 3:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tony-blairs-speech-history-will-forgive/189357/131 "2003-07-20T15:47:23Z")
There must be some sort of SDMB Bermuda Pentangle where threads go in “Is Tony Blair A Noxious Lickspittle?” and come out “Whither Recession?” ---
**Author:** ![leander](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/bcef8e/32.png) [@leander](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/leander)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2003, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tony-blairs-speech-history-will-forgive/189357/132 "2003-07-20T20:23:01Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Desmostylus \* > \*\*It’s factually correct. To say that unemployment is currently the at highest level in 20 years, or in 10 years, is factually _incorrect_. \*\* Oh Lord. Clinton _inherited_ a very high level of unemployment. It then went down. It is now the highest it has been in _nearly_ ten years. During Clinton’s tenure it was “the lowest in modern times.” (White House report) I think you should stick to little Johnny politics…your obtuse argument is annoying and irrelevant. And you have yet to refute any of my other assertions; not surprising, but still if you propose a falsehood you should try to back it up, matey. ---
**Author:** ![samclem](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a9a28c/32.png) [@samclem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/samclem)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2003, 11:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tony-blairs-speech-history-will-forgive/189357/133 "2003-07-20T23:47:23Z")
**milly** said > [@](#): > > The UAW noting a recession is rather like PETA noting the size of chicken cages. THAT’s your best shot? Embarrassing. But not out of character. :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![MEBuckner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mebuckner/32/2896_2.png) [@MEBuckner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MEBuckner)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2003, 1:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tony-blairs-speech-history-will-forgive/189357/134 "2003-07-21T01:12:48Z")
**Moderator’s Notes:** [ol] [li]If anyone wants to start a new thread (or threads) about the definition of a recession or the relative economic prowess of the Clinton and Bush (II) Administrations, please feel free to do so.[/li] **Colly** and **Sammy Clem** : Don’t make fun of other people’s names. Do you think it makes you sound smart? It does not make you sound smart. Don’t do that.[/ol] ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2003, 1:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tony-blairs-speech-history-will-forgive/189357/135 "2003-07-21T01:26:38Z")
Does that include not calling me **'luci**? Not that they have, but can you make the other guys quit it too? ---
**Author:** ![samclem](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a9a28c/32.png) [@samclem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/samclem)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2003, 1:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tony-blairs-speech-history-will-forgive/189357/136 "2003-07-21T01:30:24Z")
Sorry for doing that. I won’t do it again. Not my usual style. Probably the only time I’ve done it. I know that doesn’t excuse. ---
**Author:** ![MEBuckner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mebuckner/32/2896_2.png) [@MEBuckner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MEBuckner)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2003, 1:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tony-blairs-speech-history-will-forgive/189357/137 "2003-07-21T01:35:18Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by elucidator \* > Does that include not calling me **'luci**? Not that they have, but can you make the other guys quit it too? If anybody calls you **'luci** in Great Debates, they’ll have some ‘splainin’ to do. ---
**Author:** ![London\_Calling](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/49beb7/32.png) [@London\_Calling](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/London_Calling)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2003, 1:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tony-blairs-speech-history-will-forgive/189357/138 "2003-07-21T01:44:45Z")
Yeah, what MEBuckeroo said! Speaking as the originator of 'luci (I believe), it’s quite clear the lady doth protest too much. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2003, 1:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tony-blairs-speech-history-will-forgive/189357/139 "2003-07-21T01:51:55Z")
**Werewolf of London** I assure you most strenuously that any resemblance between myself and a lady exists entirely in your feverish imagination. I am quite too old to undergo the surgery that would be required to change me into a lesbian. ---
**Author:** ![London\_Calling](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/49beb7/32.png) [@London\_Calling](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/London_Calling)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2003, 1:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tony-blairs-speech-history-will-forgive/189357/140 "2003-07-21T01:52:04Z")
Oh, and I won’t use the abbreviation again. Had no idea you were fussed. Sorry. And apologies also to the very fine Moderator, MEB. Just too good an opportunity . . . sorry! [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tony-blairs-speech-history-will-forgive/189357.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/tony-blairs-speech-history-will-forgive/189357.md?page=8)