# Too Early To Ask For OSCAR Predictions? **URL:** \ **Category:** Cafe Society\ **Created:** [November 23, 2006, 9:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/too-early-to-ask-for-oscar-predictions/381533 "2006-11-23T09:43:46Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2006, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/too-early-to-ask-for-oscar-predictions/381533/21 "2006-11-29T19:45:37Z")
The Handicappers at [GoldDerby](http://theenvelope.latimes.com/) have these as their current likely predictions for nominations (in order): Picture **Dreamgirls The Departed The Queen Babel Little Miss Sunshine** Also in the running: _Flags of Our Fathers, Children of Men, Volver, World Trade Center_ Actor Peter O’Toole, _Venus_ Forest Whitaker, _The Last King of Scotland_ Will Smith, _The Pursuit of Happyness_ Leonardo DiCaprio, _Blood Diamond_ Ryan Gosling, _Half Nelson_ Also in the running: DiCaprio (_The Departed_), Derek Luke (_Catch a Fire_), Sasha Baron Cohen (_Borat_) Actress Helen Mirren, _The Queen_ Penelope Cruz, _Volver_ Judi Dench, _Notes on a Scandal_ Meryl Streep, _The Devil Wears Prada_ Sienna Miller, _Factory Girl_ Also in the running: Annette Bening (_Running with Scissors_), Kate Winslet (_Little Children_), Maggie Gyllenhaal (_Sherrybaby_), Beyonce Knowles (_Dreamgirls_) Supporting Actor Eddie Murphy, _Dreamgirls_ Brad Pitt, _Babel_ Jack Nicholson, _The Departed_ Alan Arkin, _Little Miss Sunshine_ Michael Sheen, _The Queen_ Also in the running: Adam Beach (_Flags of Our Fathers_), Jackie Earle Haley (_Little Children_), Ben Affleck (_Hollywoodland_), Steve Carrell (_Little Miss Sunshine_), Mark Wahlberg (_The Departed_) Supporting Actress Jennifer Hudson, _Dreamgirls_ Cate Blanchett, _Notes on a Scandal_ Abigail Breslin, _Little Miss Sunshine_ Adriana Barraza, _Babel_ Catherine O’Hara, _For Your Consideration_ Also in the running: Carmen Maura (_Volver_), Frances de la Tour (_The History Boys_), Phyllis Sommerville (_Little Children_), Rinko Kinkuchi (_Babel_), Shareeka Epps (_Half Nelson_), Sharon Stone (_Bobby_) ---
**Author:** ![Wee\_Bairn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/90db22/32.png) [@Wee\_Bairn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wee_Bairn)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2006, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/too-early-to-ask-for-oscar-predictions/381533/22 "2006-11-29T19:55:53Z")
What are the chances of the Oscars ever breaking out the best actor categories into drama and comedy? It is hard enough comparing different dramatic roles, how in the hell is one supposed to compare Borat’s performance with that of Peter O’Toole, for example? ---
**Author:** ![Wee\_Bairn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/90db22/32.png) [@Wee\_Bairn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wee_Bairn)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2006, 7:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/too-early-to-ask-for-oscar-predictions/381533/23 "2006-11-29T19:58:38Z")
Also, when pigs fly and hell freezes over and Borat is nominated, do you think he would show up dressed as Borat? How cool would that be to shake up the Oscars? ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2006, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/too-early-to-ask-for-oscar-predictions/381533/24 "2006-11-29T20:32:56Z")
Even at his worst, Borat couldn’t be half as bad as when Roberto Benigni accepted his Oscars. Don’t discount Cohen’s chances, though. The way the balloting for nominations work, as long as you have a narrow but loyal contingency willing to put you in the #1 slot, you’re more likely to get nominated than if you’re on 80% of the ballots, but in the #4 slot. Borat is a phenomenon, but even more importantly (to the industry), it’s a box office hit. Plus, Cohen was also in the #1 (non-animated) comedy of the year. And the Oscars will never make the Comedy split, primarily because that’s Golden Globe territory, and there’s the danger that it will appear to “water down” the importance of the award (plus I’d bet you, the most deserving comedy performance would never win anyway). They did it in the music category for a few years (because Disney musicals were hijacking the “Original Score” award) and very quickly changed it back. Also, you’d end up with lots of bizarre and dubious campaigning arguing that such-&-such is really a “comedy” so it would be up against less formidable competition. ---
**Author:** ![jackdavinci](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackdavinci/32/3259_2.png) [@jackdavinci](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jackdavinci)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2006, 12:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/too-early-to-ask-for-oscar-predictions/381533/25 "2006-11-30T00:36:31Z")
Oh gosh this is hard. I see at least one movie a week some times 2 or 3. Is there a list somewhere on the net of what movies were released this year? IMDb has a list but it has 15000 films so I’m looking for something that would just have the 10 movies that are released each week that people actually hear about, but that does include independant films with moderate amount of release such as shortbus and peaceful warrior. It will probably get a lot of play at the Oscars because it has all this buzz, but I really didn’t think The Departed was anything special. The only interesting acting was by Leonardo and maybe the counselor. The set up was interesting but the payoff was anticlimatic and the elevator scene was somewhat dissapointing. I haven’t seen it yet but from the previews for Blood Diamond look like Leonardo is putting in a good performance so he might get nominated for that instead. ---
**Author:** ![drm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a88e57/32.png) [@drm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drm)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2006, 2:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/too-early-to-ask-for-oscar-predictions/381533/26 "2006-11-30T02:31:19Z")
I’d be surprised if Best Actor wasn’t a two horse race between Ryan Gosling and Forest Whitaker. They were kind of at both ends of the spectrum but both were great, I don’t know how I’d choose between the two. Because Forest’s performance was, for lack of a better word, huge I’d give him the edge. I’d be surprised if someone else matched these performances but there are still a month’s worth of movies, so who knows. Regarding best actress, I actually thought Meryl Streep was better in “A Prairie Home Companion”. It was a little more subtle than “The Devil Wears Prada” but that’s why I liked it. Helen Mirren, Penelope Cruz, and Kate Winslet were all pretty good as well. Another month, blah blah. Best Picture is tough for me. The movie that engaged me and gripped me like no other movie this year was Little Children. I just loved this movie and left the theatre in a daze. I’d be disappointed if it wasn’t nominated but not necessarily surprised. I suppose I’ll see the usual suspects like Babel (which I did like), The Departed (which was good but not academy award good), Dreamgirls (haven’t seen it but Loved Moulin Rouge, Hated Chicago, and this one seems more in the Chicago vein). This should not be the year Scorsese finally wins as I don’t think he did nearly the best job at directing. I’d rather see Todd field or Alejandro Gonzalez Inarrito win but I’m usually a bit surprised here. I wouldn’t be disappointed if Pedro Almodovar or even Chris Nolan got nominated. I figure I’ll stop there, for now. ---
**Author:** ![middleman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e9a140/32.png) [@middleman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/middleman)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2006, 2:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/too-early-to-ask-for-oscar-predictions/381533/27 "2006-11-30T14:38:11Z")
[QUOTE=jackdavinci] Oh gosh this is hard. I see at least one movie a week some times 2 or 3. Is there a list somewhere on the net of what movies were released this year? IMDb has a list but it has 15000 films so I’m looking for something that would just have the 10 movies that are released each week that people actually hear about, but that does include independant films with moderate amount of release such as shortbus and peaceful warrior. It will probably get a lot of play at the Oscars because it has all this buzz, but I really didn’t think The Departed was anything special. The only interesting acting was by Leonardo and maybe the counselor. The set up was interesting but the payoff was anticlimatic and the elevator scene was somewhat dissapointing. I haven’t seen it yet but from the previews for Blood Diamond look like Leonardo is putting in a good performance so he might get nominated for that instead. [/QUOTE] Use the IMDB power search and limit it to films released this year but exclude DVD, TV and releases with less than 2500 reviews. That is how I get the list. Almost any arthouse film will have at least 2500 reviews. If you are looking for really obscure releases, use 1000 reviews. ---
**Author:** ![middleman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e9a140/32.png) [@middleman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/middleman)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2006, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/too-early-to-ask-for-oscar-predictions/381533/28 "2006-11-30T14:53:26Z")
I just tested my own advice and it seems fewer people are voting these days. Try 250 reviews. That should get it done. ---
**Author:** ![Equipoise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/equipoise/32/151_2.png) [@Equipoise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Equipoise)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2006, 9:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/too-early-to-ask-for-oscar-predictions/381533/29 "2006-12-03T21:16:05Z")
We saw **Blood Diamond** and **The Departed** back to back last night, a sneak preview of BD, then a late show of TD. The voters are going to have a hell of a time deciding which one to nominate Leo for. He’s AMAZING in BD, I think it’s my favorite performance he’s given, ever, even though it’s the least-likable character he’s ever played. He’s not afraid to be hated. The character isn’t an out and out bad guy, that would be too easy, but he has no reedeeming qualities until the very very end, and what happens hardly qualifies as “heartwarming” (the trailer gives a very different feeling from what actually happens in the movie…the trailer, which we saw again before The Departed, almost makes it seem like he’s a loveable rogue and he’s not, he’s an amoral mercenary). This is a a Leonardo DiCaprio we’ve barely seen before (a slight dusting in Basketball Diaries perhaps), and he’s fascinating to watch. Now that I’ve seen the performance I do wish he’d be nominated for **Blood Diamond** , but will have no problem at all if he gets it for **The Departed** , which is the better movie. **Blood Diamond** is a flawed but overall very good movie, but **The Departed** is, well, Scorsese. Also, the character in TD is likable and sympathetic, which gives it a better chance. I don’t know about any other nominations for **Blood Diamond**. Djimon Hounsou is good as always, but he’s let down terribly by the script, and Jennifer Connelly doesn’t have a lot to do (but does it well). I’m not sure it’s a Best Picture picture, and I don’t see the director getting nominated. It was directed well but I’m not betting on a nomination. I also saw **Volver** the other day and I’d like to see it get as many nominations as it can possibly get. The Academy loves Pedro so why not? It could win Best Foreign Language film at the least. ---
**Author:** ![Equipoise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/equipoise/32/151_2.png) [@Equipoise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Equipoise)\ **Post date:** [December 9, 2006, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/too-early-to-ask-for-oscar-predictions/381533/30 "2006-12-09T22:59:21Z")
We saw **Apocalypto** last night and, to my utter surprise and astonishment, I now rank it as my favorite film of the year (so far). It’s stunning and mesmerizing, sad but deeply affecting and moving, violent but in a very logical way. I walked into the theater expecting nothing but to be impressed by the visuals, but came out enthralled and electrified, deeply touched by the lead character and his family, and wanting to see it again immediately. I had no idea that Gibson had something so amazing in him (I’ve never seen **Braveheart** or **The Patriot** and I hated **The Passion of the Christ** ) and I couldn’t begin to convey how impressed I am by this work. In the Should Be But Won’t Be department, **Apocalypto** should receive nominations for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor (Rudy Youngblood), Best Cinematography, Best Makeup, Best Score, and Best Art Direction. To my deep frustration, Gibson was an asshole and shot himself in the foot by his moronic bigoted attitudes/remarks, and the movie probably won’t get one nomination. ---
**Author:** ![Walloon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/fbc32d/32.png) [@Walloon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walloon)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2006, 12:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/too-early-to-ask-for-oscar-predictions/381533/31 "2006-12-10T12:28:02Z")
Honorary Academy Awards to Doris Day (82) and Richard Widmark (91). ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2006, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/too-early-to-ask-for-oscar-predictions/381533/32 "2006-12-10T15:53:07Z")
**Apocalypto** should get nominations for costumes and cinematography and maybe art direction and set decoration. ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2006, 6:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/too-early-to-ask-for-oscar-predictions/381533/33 "2006-12-10T18:45:32Z")
[QUOTE=Walloon] Honorary Academy Awards to Doris Day (82) and Richard Widmark (91). [/QUOTE] Not before Ennio Morricone! At 78, he has made twice as many films as Widmark & Day combined, plus he’s been nominated 5 times without ever winning. I also say Roger Corman deserves the Irving Thalberg, too. ---
**Author:** ![Walloon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/fbc32d/32.png) [@Walloon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walloon)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2006, 9:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/too-early-to-ask-for-oscar-predictions/381533/34 "2006-12-10T21:19:54Z")
Good suggestion about Roger Corman. But the problem with Ennio Morricone is that almost all his work has been for European productions. Honorary Academy Awards have traditionally gone to those who have worked primarily in English-language filmmaking, although the honorary award to Polish director Andrzej Wajda a few years ago may signal a shift in that thinking. ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2006, 9:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/too-early-to-ask-for-oscar-predictions/381533/35 "2006-12-10T21:50:10Z")
Satyajit Ray, Akira Kurosawa, Michelangelo Antonioni, Federico Fellini and Jean Renoir also received Honorary Oscars for careers predominantly (though not exclusively) in non-English movies. You could also add Sophia Loren to this list, though she did receive a competitive Oscar too. The bigger challenge for Morricone’s case than being foreign-film heavy is that he’s a film composer. Only one other composer has received an Honorary (“Lifetime Achievement”) Oscar: Alex North, who received 15 nods without ever winning. The big argument in favor, of course, is not only that he’s a genius, but he’s written some of the most iconic film music ever (plus it’s largely believed he was robbed in 1986 for **The Mission** because the Academy was too dumb to know what was and wasn’t original from the winner, _'Round Midnight_; a rule change in the music branch was believed to be a direct result of this loss). ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2006, 9:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/too-early-to-ask-for-oscar-predictions/381533/36 "2006-12-15T21:39:14Z")
[QUOTE=ArchiveGuy] Not before Ennio Morricone! At 78, he has made twice as many films as Widmark & Day combined, plus he’s been nominated 5 times without ever winning. [/quote] [From my lips to God’s ears!](http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061214/film_nm/oscars_morricone_dc_1)😃 > [@](#): > > LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Italian movie composer Ennio Morricone, famed for his work on such “spaghetti westerns” as “The Good, the Bad and the Ugly” and “A Fistful of Dollars,” will receive an honorary Oscar during the Academy Awards ceremony next February, organizers said on Wednesday. > > Morricone, 78, has composed more than 300 motion picture scores during his 45-year career, but had never won an Oscar. He was nominated five times, for “Days of Heaven” (1978), “The Mission” (1986), “The Untouchables” (1987), “Bugsy” (1991) and “Malena” (2000)… > > “The board was responding not just to the remarkable number of scores that Mr. Morricone has produced,” said Academy president Sid Ganis, “but to the fact that so many of them are beloved and popular masterpieces.” Fantastic! In other news, here are the finalists for the Visual Effects award: > [@](#): > > The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences today announced that seven films are in consideration for achievement in Visual Effects for the 79th Academy Awards®. > > The films are listed below in alphabetical order: > > **Casino Royale > Eragon > Night at the Museum > Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest > Poseidon > Superman Returns > X-Men The Last Stand** It’s hard to imagine _POTC_ losing this, which will mean a genuine showdown next year, since _Spider-Man 3_ and _POTC3_ will be head-to-head after each of their 2nd installments (but not the 1st) won the Oscar. Also, [here are all the songs eligible for Best Song this year](http://www.oscars.org/press/pressreleases/2006/06.12.08.html), [here are the 15 finalists for Best Documentary feature](http://www.oscars.org/press/pressreleases/2006/06.11.15.html), [here are the films submitted for consideration for the Animated Feature category](http://www.oscars.org/press/pressreleases/2006/06.11.03.html), and [here’s the list of the 61 countries, and their submissions, vying for the Foreign Language Film award.](http://www.oscars.org/press/pressreleases/2006/06.10.19a.html) ---
**Author:** ![Walter\_Windchill](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/eb8c5e/32.png) [@Walter\_Windchill](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walter_Windchill)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2007, 12:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/too-early-to-ask-for-oscar-predictions/381533/37 "2007-01-03T00:08:56Z")
I would love it if the kid who played Olive in Little Miss Sunshine were nominated for best supporting actress… she did quite an amazing job. Given the cuteness factor I think she has a chance. I think the movie will be nominated, but lose to something not as good but more “serious.” The Academy has done a shitty job lately of handing out best picture awards, so I predict it will go to some overrated piece of crap I haven’t seen and will watch later thinking, “THIS won best picture”? ---
**Author:** ![Shirley\_Ujest](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/45deac/32.png) [@Shirley\_Ujest](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shirley_Ujest)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2007, 2:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/too-early-to-ask-for-oscar-predictions/381533/38 "2007-01-03T02:25:42Z")
Peter O’Toole will be nominated and win for Venus. Even if he is crap. Even if no one but the Academy people and those East/West coaster Artsy Fartsy types see it. He will win. He’s lost out so many other times and has left such an incredible mark with his talent. Peter, if you are reading this, you could read the phone book and make it sound lyrical and melodic. You should have one for Henry the Second in Lion in Winter. ( and Laurence of Arabia and Man of the Year) ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2007, 2:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/too-early-to-ask-for-oscar-predictions/381533/39 "2007-01-03T02:40:18Z")
[QUOTE=Shirley Ujest] You should have one for Henry the Second in Lion in Winter. ( and Laurence of Arabia and Man of the Year) [/QUOTE] Lawrence. And yeah, he probably should have won for that. The critics, however, seem to be lionizing Forrest Whitaker, a critic’s favourite, for “The Last King of Scotland,” and that’s a strong indicator. I’d bet even money Helen Mirren will win Best Actress and that’s the only prediction I’m going to make. The only actress with any chance at all of beating her is Kate Winslet, not because she necessarily deserves to but because they like giving it to young, beautiful actresses instead of veterans, and it’ll be her fifth nomination. ---
**Author:** ![Equipoise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/equipoise/32/151_2.png) [@Equipoise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Equipoise)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2007, 12:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/too-early-to-ask-for-oscar-predictions/381533/40 "2007-01-24T12:05:36Z")
Just looking at our prognostication skills here. [QUOTE=DMark] Best Film Nominations: The Departed, The Queen Best Actress: Helen Mirren for The Queen will certainly get a nomination. Best Director: Martin Scorsese (Finally!) [/QUOTE] Right x 4 [QUOTE=Equipoise] I agree with all your picks. Helen Mirren will probably win too. [/QUOTE] We’ll see. [QUOTE=Equipoise] Look for Altman to get a Director nod for **Prairie Home Companion**. He might have gotten one anyway, even if he hadn’t died (RIP). [/QUOTE] Boy, I was wrong here. They completely forgot about this film. [QUOTE=Equipoise] **Flushed Away** , **Happy Feet** and **Cars** will be nominated for Best Animated Feature. [/QUOTE] I was too optimistic about Flushed Away. [QUOTE=Equipoise] To use the old cliche, I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Daniel Craig will get a Best Actor nomination for **Casino Royale**. Once everybody stops laughing, I’ll continue… [/QUOTE] HA! Silly me. [QUOTE=Equipoise] Forrest Whitaker will probably be nominated and might very well win for **The Last King of Scotland**. [/QUOTE] We’ll see. [QUOTE=Equipoise] There are whispers of awe at Leonardo Dicaprio’s performace in **Blood Diamond** so he could get nominated for that instead of **The Departed** [/quote] Whooo! I’m glad I said that! [QUOTE=Equipoise] There’s also buzz about Peter O’Toole’s performance in a movie called **Venus** , which opens limited on Dec. 20, and Ryan Gosling’s performance in **Half-Nelson** , which I missed, and I’ll kick myself (for missing it) if he gets nominated. [/QUOTE] I was right about O’Toole and Gosling. [QUOTE=Equipoise] We have yet to see how Matt Damon and George Clooney are in their Good movies (Damon in **The Good Shepherd** , and Clooney in **The Good German**. [/QUOTE] Ah well. [QUOTE=Equipoise] Meryl Streep will get a Best Actress nomination for **The Devil Wears Prada** , though I honestly think she belongs in Supporting. Documentary nominations will include **An Inconvenient Truth** and (oh god, please make it so) **Shut Up and Sing**. [/QUOTE] No on SUAS, but yes on the other two. [QUOTE=Equipoise] **Marie Antoinette** should have no problem getting nods for Costume, Art Direction and Cinematography. Maybe makeup too. [/QUOTE] I only got Costume right. [QUOTE=Equipoise] There’s talk of **Dreamgirls** being this year’s **Chicago**. It’s getting phenomenal buzz. [/QUOTE] Yes, but not enough. [QUOTE=Equipoise] **Little Miss Sunshine** will probably get an Original Screenplay nomination. [/QUOTE] It was way more popular than I imagined. [QUOTE=Equipoise] A surprise nom could be Penelope Cruz for **Volver**. [/QUOTE] Whooo! Right. [QUOTE=Equipoise] **Children of Men** will get nominations for Cinematography and Art Direction, and maybe Actor (Clive Owen), Best Picture, and Director. [/QUOTE] Oh wasn’t I optimistic? Of those it got Cinematography. [QUOTE=Equipoise] **Flags of Our Fathers** could get Best Picture and Best Director (Clint Eastwood) nominations, but it’s iffy since the movie came, died, and went. [/QUOTE] It did get nominations in a couple of Artistic categories, but it was Clint’s **Letters From Iwo Jima** that came out of nowhere and knocked everybody over. Beware of Clint, this is his MO now. **Mystic River** and **Million Dollar Baby** also were made and post-productioned with no buzz and then suddenly unleashed at the end of the year, dominating the awards season. [QUOTE=Equipoise] Who/what should get nominated and won’t? Toby Jones as Truman Capote in **Infamous** , because of Philip Seymour Hoffman’s win last year, Sandra Bullock (yes, Sandra Bullock) as Nelle Harper Lee in the same movie, Sasha Baron Cohen for his Borat, Catherine O’Hara as Marilyn Hack in **For Your Consideration** , **Marie Antoinette** for Best Picture, Actress (Kirsten Dunst) and Sofia Coppola as Director (ok, so I’m a dreamer). Also, **Idlewild** (my favorite movie of the year so far) for Costumes, Art Direction and Cinematography. **The Science of Sleep** for Art Direction and Screenplay (I’m not sure which category). [/QUOTE] Got all those right. A quick look at the rest of the thread… [QUOTE=Gangster Octopus] It probably won’t get a best picture nod, but Paul Greengrass deserves a Best Director nomination for United 93 [/QUOTE] Good for you! [QUOTE=Cat Fight] If Ryan Gosling and Shareeka Epps aren’t nominated for Half Nelson, I’ve had it with the Academy. [/QUOTE] How’s one out of two? [QUOTE=ouryL] Will Smith The Pursuit of Happyness [/QUOTE] Good for you! [QUOTE=Moonchild] Chiming in here for Little Children. Clever script, based on a novel by Tom Perrotta – also the author of Election – I would think a likelihood for best screenplay adaptation (or whatever it’s called)…Winslett for Best Actress? A definite possibility. And as a real longshot, Jackie Earle Haley (best known as Kelly Leake in “Bad News Bears”) for Best Supporting Actor. [/QUOTE] Good call. [QUOTE=ArchiveGuy] The Handicappers at GoldDerby have these as their current likely predictions for nominations (in order): Actor Peter O’Toole, Venus Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness Leonardo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson [/QUOTE] Dead on! [QUOTE=Walter Windchill] I would love it if the kid who played Olive in Little Miss Sunshine were nominated for best supporting actress… she did quite an amazing job. [/QUOTE] !!! Good for you! [QUOTE=spoke-] Apocalypto should get nominations for costumes and cinematography and maybe art direction and set decoration. [/QUOTE] Unfortunately, only for Makeup, Sound Editing, and Sound Mixing. I was with you, but 3 Oscar nominations are better than no Oscar nominations. [QUOTE=Shirley Ujest] Peter O’Toole will be nominated and win for Venus. Even if he is crap. Even if no one but the Academy people and those East/West coaster Artsy Fartsy types see it. He will win. [/QUOTE] Hey, I live in Chicago and I’m as far away from Artsy Fartsy and you can get, and I saw it. He isn’t crap. He deserved his nomination, but Forest Whitaker will win. However, if O’Toole wins, I don’t even think Whitaker will mind. This will probably be O’Toole’s last chance. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/too-early-to-ask-for-oscar-predictions/381533.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/too-early-to-ask-for-oscar-predictions/381533.md?page=3)