# Top-Of-Head, Bottom-Of-Gut, Direct-From-Rectum: 2016 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 30, 2015, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/top-of-head-bottom-of-gut-direct-from-rectum-2016/723875 "2015-06-30T16:32:34Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 3\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2015, 10:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/top-of-head-bottom-of-gut-direct-from-rectum-2016/723875/61 "2015-10-22T10:21:07Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > That would be Josh Marshall, of _Talking Points Memo_, without which no citizen can hope to be well-informed. Available here: [http://talkingpointsmemo.com/](http://talkingpointsmemo.com/). But “with a big assist from lefty journalists like Josh Marshall”? Sadly, no. It’s the right-wing way: demonstrate your commitment to “personal responsibility” by blaming your problems and failures on everyone else. ---
**Author:** ![Locrian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/locrian/32/14146_2.png) [@Locrian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Locrian)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2015, 11:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/top-of-head-bottom-of-gut-direct-from-rectum-2016/723875/62 "2015-10-22T11:08:05Z")
I still have to go with Hillary Clinton v. Jeb! Bush. Hillary is the only Dem with the most connections. And the word, Bush, is a sigh of relief for republicans. Honestly, with blow-hard individuals pleasing only lobbyists/donors, how could the last name “Bush” be anything BUT a pleasing word for the GOP Base to vote for? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2015, 11:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/top-of-head-bottom-of-gut-direct-from-rectum-2016/723875/63 "2015-10-22T11:11:23Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > I’m a big fan of Josh Marshall, and he was right about 2010. That doesn’t mean that the Democratic party couldn’t have and shouldn’t have done things differently to try and minimize their losses, but they were almost certainly going to lose the House at the time. And they did hold on to the Senate (until 2014, at least), so it wasn’t a total loss. Marshall was right that the fundamentals made it certain Democrats would lose seats in 2010. But I believe at the time Nate Silver said the fundamentals made for 40-seat loss or so, not 63. Marshall wasn’t the cause, or the only lefty journalist with a fatalistic attitude. The last two midterms featured Democrats being complacent. In 2010, it was the fundamentals. In 2014, the Democrats decided they had a “midterm turnout problem”, so of course they did have a midterm turnout problem. Now in 2016, they assume that they have a “general election turnout advantage”. Fortunately, since as I mentioned, individuals tend to be more motivated about their personal careers than organizations are about the careers of the collective(especially since few incumbents are really at risk), the Clinton campaign recognizes the risk, especially with African-American turnout. So thanks to their foresight, complacency might not kill the Democratic Party. But it’ll make another big comeback in 2018, with the worst map we’ve seen so far as well as assumptions about fundamentals and Democratic turnout. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/top-of-head-bottom-of-gut-direct-from-rectum-2016/723875.md?page=3)