# Top-Of-Head, Bottom-Of-Gut, Direct-From-Rectum: 2016

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/top-of-head-bottom-of-gut-direct-from-rectum-2016/723875>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Created:** [June 30, 2015, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/top-of-head-bottom-of-gut-direct-from-rectum-2016/723875 "2015-06-30T16:32:34Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 1\
**Showing post:** 49

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**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\
**Post date:** [October 18, 2015, 7:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/top-of-head-bottom-of-gut-direct-from-rectum-2016/723875/49 "2015-10-18T07:18:15Z")

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Pennsylvania is surely “in play.” _If the GOP can win it somehow, they win the White House_. If they lose Pennsylvania, along with every state that had a smaller GOP percentage vote in 2012 than Pennsylvania had, _they lose the White House_. Just like its nickname implies, Pennsylvania is the Key stone for this election.

That’s not to say GOP victory is impossible without Pennsylvania. If the election is close, you may assume that GOP will take North Carolina, Ohio, and Florida. Given those states _and Virginia_, they’d only need _one more swing state_; it wouldn’t have to be the Keystone State. Tiny New Hampshire would push them over, as would any of Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, Minnesota, or Wisconsin. (With neither Pennsylvania nor Virginia, the GOP would probably have to win at least three other swing states.)

TL;DR: _ **Don’t let your guard down** _. November 2016 still looks like a coin-toss. Complacency in Pennsylvania would be a _huge_ mistake.

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