# Top picks at NFL combines **URL:** \ **Category:** Cafe Society\ **Created:** [February 21, 2006, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/top-picks-at-nfl-combines/345504 "2006-02-21T18:30:16Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 19\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2006, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/top-picks-at-nfl-combines/345504/21 "2006-02-27T20:14:33Z")
> [@Trunk](#): > > Basically, they seem to find ways to let their perceptions override the only solid information they have: he won a lot of games, made a lot of people miss, and completed a lot of passes. In the end, they’re trying take a scientific approach to things that aren’t very scientific. The data they do have doesn’t predict what he’s going to do in the NFL, and that’s what they want to figure out. So they end up putting more trust in the tests they come up with than in what they’ve seen, and sometimes the results are absurd. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2006, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/top-picks-at-nfl-combines/345504/22 "2006-02-27T20:16:05Z")
> [@Trunk](#): > > Vince Young almost reminds me of some of the guys in Moneyball – someone like Scott Hatteberg(\*), where all the scouts with their baseball knowledge and intuition looked at him and said, “this guy isn’t a ball player. He’s too heavy, can’t run, etc. etc.” > > But the Moneyball guys were looking at his fielding percentage, on base average, power, etc. > > People look at Young and they see an undisciplined guy, funny throwing motion. They say his receivers were always open, that defenses in the NFL are too fast. Basically, they seem to find ways to let their perceptions override the only solid information they have: he won a lot of games, made a lot of people miss, and completed a lot of passes. > > I’m not saying he’s going to be great. There are so many confounding factors when looking at college football players, but I really think the people guaranteeing he’s going to be a bust are a little too sure of themselves. > > (\*) Mighta been someone other than Hatteberg, like that catcher from Alabama, but the point remains. I hear what you’re saying, but I think it’s a mistake to compare baseball prospects and football prospects like that. For all the busts in the NFL and the decried “workout wonders”, on the whole, especially compared to baseball, the NFL scouts do a really impressive job of vetting potential players. Their system works really well. If the “moneyball” philosophy worked in football, we’d be talking about how Danny Wuerfel, Gino Torreta, Tommy Fraiser and Desmond Howard were mistakenly overlooked and have compiled NFL resumes which track with their NCA ones. ---
**Author:** ![brianjedi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/3be4f8/32.png) [@brianjedi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brianjedi)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2006, 10:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/top-picks-at-nfl-combines/345504/23 "2006-02-27T22:41:12Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > I hear what you’re saying, but I think it’s a mistake to compare baseball prospects and football prospects like that. For all the busts in the NFL and the decried “workout wonders”, on the whole, especially compared to baseball, the NFL scouts do a really impressive job of vetting potential players. Their system works really well. > > If the “moneyball” philosophy worked in football, we’d be talking about how Danny Wuerfel, Gino Torreta, Tommy Fraiser and Desmond Howard were mistakenly overlooked and have compiled NFL resumes which track with their NCA ones. Yeah, “Moneyball” doesn’t work in the NFL (you might could make an argument for it working in the NBA, though.) What’s gonna hurt Vince Young the most is his Wonderlic score, if the reports are true. An 11 is an atrocious score for any position, but especially at quarterback. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2006, 10:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/top-picks-at-nfl-combines/345504/24 "2006-02-27T22:55:24Z")
They’ve been saying he scored a 6. He retook it and managed a weak 16. All of this simply adds to the assumption that vince Young is going to suck on a monumental scale in the NFL. ---
**Author:** ![drm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a88e57/32.png) [@drm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drm)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2006, 10:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/top-picks-at-nfl-combines/345504/25 "2006-02-27T22:58:42Z")
> [@](#): > > What’s gonna hurt Vince Young the most is his Wonderlic score, if the reports are true. An 11 is an atrocious score for any position, but especially at quarterback. I heard he got a 6 or 7 the first time then wrote it again and got a 16 (courtesy of pardon the interuption, no cite). The guest blamed it on an inexperienced management team who didn’t prepare him well enough. He said most people write it a number of times before they even get to the combine. Rumour has it that Dan Marino scored a 16 and Steve McNair scored a 17. I’m not saying it’s not important, I just don’t think it’ll him that much. ---
**Author:** ![HubZilla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/ccd318/32.png) [@HubZilla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HubZilla)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2006, 3:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/top-picks-at-nfl-combines/345504/26 "2006-02-28T03:21:44Z")
In the OP, I didn’t mean to pick on Young, per se. Although he does have some questions marks (including his 6, allegedly), I wonder why top-draft players don’t participate. If they have nothing to hide, why not? If they are hiding something, it would be better to get it out early before teams pay big bucks on a bust (Ryan Leaf, et al). I was also making some comparisons to Michael Vick. He’s a jersey-seller for the NFL. Someone above mentioned Tommie Frazier being a bust. Well, his blood clots prevented him from going to the NFL. He did the slash-QB thing far better than Kordell, Vick, or Young, so it might’ve been interesting. ---
**Author:** ![jackelope](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/a6a055/32.png) [@jackelope](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jackelope)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2006, 3:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/top-picks-at-nfl-combines/345504/27 "2006-02-28T03:42:10Z")
No love for DeAngelo Williams? The running back out of Memphis who just broke the all-time NCAA record for all-purpose yards? Granted, Memphis isn’t out there playing USC every week, but Williams is one of the most consistently amazing runners I’ve seen since Barry Sanders. I’m eager to see what he does in the NFL. ---
**Author:** ![ISiddiqui](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/97f17d/32.png) [@ISiddiqui](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ISiddiqui)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2006, 3:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/top-picks-at-nfl-combines/345504/28 "2006-02-28T03:49:36Z")
> [@Trunk](#): > > Vince Young almost reminds me of some of the guys in Moneyball – someone like Scott Hatteberg(\*), where all the scouts with their baseball knowledge and intuition looked at him and said, “this guy isn’t a ball player. He’s too heavy, can’t run, etc. etc.” > > But the Moneyball guys were looking at his fielding percentage, on base average, power, etc. > > People look at Young and they see an undisciplined guy, funny throwing motion. They say his receivers were always open, that defenses in the NFL are too fast. Basically, they seem to find ways to let their perceptions override the only solid information they have: he won a lot of games, made a lot of people miss, and completed a lot of passes. > > I’m not saying he’s going to be great. There are so many confounding factors when looking at college football players, but I really think the people guaranteeing he’s going to be a bust are a little too sure of themselves. > > (\*) Mighta been someone other than Hatteberg, like that catcher from Alabama, but the point remains. As said, it doesn’t fit. But the main difference is that sabermetrics looks at actual statistics and objective criteria to determine which have fallen through the cracks. Those that weren’t picked because of physical reasons had statistics showing they could success. Those that back Vince Young are using the same subjective reasons as those that are dismissing him. ---
**Author:** ![Snooooopy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ee7513/32.png) [@Snooooopy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snooooopy)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2006, 4:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/top-picks-at-nfl-combines/345504/29 "2006-02-28T04:07:09Z")
> [@jackelope](#): > > No love for DeAngelo Williams? The running back out of Memphis who just broke the all-time NCAA record for all-purpose yards? Granted, Memphis isn’t out there playing USC every week, but Williams is one of the most consistently amazing runners I’ve seen since Barry Sanders. I’m eager to see what he does in the NFL. Given that the thread had kind of veered in the direction of discussing potential busts, maybe it’s a show of love that his name DIDN’T pop up! ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2006, 7:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/top-picks-at-nfl-combines/345504/30 "2006-02-28T07:15:18Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > In Vick’s draft there was LaDanian Tomlinson (comparable to Reggie Bush) and there was virtually no one saying he’d be prefered over Vick. Not only that, but the Falcons bent over and took it trading with the Chargers to get Vick instead of Tomlinson. The Chargers have a history of grand larceny when it comes to trading away the draft picks they earn with their pathetic on-field performances. Tomlinson, Brees, and Dwight for Vick, and then Rivers, Merriman and their kicker for Eli. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2006, 7:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/top-picks-at-nfl-combines/345504/31 "2006-02-28T07:16:42Z")
Crap, I forgot my point: And they _still_ suck. hehheh. ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2006, 9:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/top-picks-at-nfl-combines/345504/32 "2006-02-28T09:15:09Z")
> [@Ellis Dee](#): > > Not only that, but the Falcons bent over and took it trading with the Chargers to get Vick instead of Tomlinson. Worse deal: Cleveland drafted Gerrard Warren #3 before Tomlinson (and Seymour, another DT). :smack: :smack: :smack: :smack: That was a tough year for the [top ten](http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/years/2001) in general, though. Seymour and Tomlinson being the only clearly valuable players. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2006, 1:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/top-picks-at-nfl-combines/345504/33 "2006-02-28T13:29:18Z")
> [@jackelope](#): > > No love for DeAngelo Williams? The running back out of Memphis who just broke the all-time NCAA record for all-purpose yards? Granted, Memphis isn’t out there playing USC every week, but Williams is one of the most consistently amazing runners I’ve seen since Barry Sanders. I’m eager to see what he does in the NFL. Most places I’ve seen have DeAngelo being a first round draft pick, so I’m pretty sure he’s getting the love. The knocks on him are that he’s smaller, slower, and weaker than premier NFL running backs. The yardage is nice, but it did come against weaker competition and it means there’s a lot of tread on his tires. The other knock I’ve heard is that he doesn’t have the strength to break tackles. Unfortunately, I’ve never seen him play, so I’m only going by what I’ve read, but I am eager to see how he’ll do. ---
**Author:** ![Trunk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/87869e/32.png) [@Trunk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trunk)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2006, 1:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/top-picks-at-nfl-combines/345504/34 "2006-02-28T13:46:58Z")
> [@ISiddiqui](#): > > As said, it doesn’t fit. But the main difference is that sabermetrics looks at actual statistics and objective criteria to determine which have fallen through the cracks. Those that weren’t picked because of physical reasons had statistics showing they could success. Those that back Vince Young are using the same subjective reasons as those that are dismissing him. Yeah, like completion percentage. If anyone doesn’t think _moneyballism_ applies to the NFL, you’re not paying attention. With the strict salary cap rules, being able to idenitfy inneficiencies is even more important than it is in baseball. You think it’s just coincidence that the Patriots have the largest number of college graduates on their team. . .or do you think it’s possible that Bill Belichick and Scott Pioli found an undervalued commodity in the market? ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2006, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/top-picks-at-nfl-combines/345504/35 "2006-02-28T14:53:36Z")
> [@Trunk](#): > > If anyone doesn’t think _moneyballism_ applies to the NFL, you’re not paying attention. With the strict salary cap rules, being able to idenitfy inneficiencies is even more important than it is in baseball. Well, in a way it does, but there’s essentially 2 components to the _Moneyball_ metaphor. First, there’s the concept of looking at key stats above all else. Instead of looking at HRs, RBIs and the traditional stats, they focused on things like OBP, OPS, K/9, WHIP and VORP regardless of what level they played at. They ignore the WOW-factor and overlook name recognition, and don’t favor veterans over rookies unless the key rate stats tell them so. The other component is the cost-benefit aspect. Basically deciding it’s not worth paying double the salary for a 5% increase in performance. It’s true that the non-garunteed contracts and the tight salary cap make the latter aspect comparable, but as it applies to the combine and draftees the former isn’t a fair comparison. ---
**Author:** ![Trunk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/87869e/32.png) [@Trunk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trunk)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2006, 3:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/top-picks-at-nfl-combines/345504/36 "2006-02-28T15:33:36Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > Well, in a way it does, but there’s essentially 2 components to the _Moneyball_ metaphor. > > First, there’s the concept of looking at key stats above all else. Instead of looking at HRs, RBIs and the traditional stats, they focused on things like OBP, OPS, K/9, WHIP and VORP regardless of what level they played at. They ignore the WOW-factor and overlook name recognition, and don’t favor veterans over rookies unless the key rate stats tell them so. > > The other component is the cost-benefit aspect. Basically deciding it’s not worth paying double the salary for a 5% increase in performance. > > It’s true that the non-garunteed contracts and the tight salary cap make the latter aspect comparable, but as it applies to the combine and draftees the former isn’t a fair comparison. In the larger picture, it does. The miniscule point in _Moneyball_ was that looking at OPS & WHIP was better than looking at RBIs & wins. The minor point was that traditional statistical measures were inadequate in capturing those things that were invariant to the performance of one’s teammates. The major point was that the thinking on the issue had become dogmatic. And, that’s what applies to the NFL. As to cost-benefit. . .it wasn’t just that it’s not worth paying double for a 5% increase in performance. The point was that there were certain skills that the market undervalued. HR’s aren’t less important than OPS. They both contribute ultimately to wins. It was that people were overpaying for HR’s and underpaying for OPS. The moneyballers were able to exploit that. In moneyball, they actually talk about how defense had traditionally been overrated. Again, the point wasn’t that defense was unimportnt, but just that he amount it contributed to wins was overrated by traditional thinking. But just this last year, David Leonhardt wrote an article in the New York Times stating that fielding had become undervalued [Requires Times Select](http://select.nytimes.com/search/restricted/article?res=FA0913F63F540C768EDDA00894DD404482) > [@](#): > > The Athletics were known a few years ago for finding inexpensive players with a knack for hitting home runs and walking, even if they were defensively challenged. > > But with more teams also focusing on on-base percentage these days, Oakland’s front office seems to have decided that defense is now the skill undervalued in the baseball marketplace. This season, A’s fielders have made outs out of 72.4 percent of balls hit in play against them, better than any other team. I’m sure that teams like the Pats have models that calculate – based on history – the correlation between NFL performance and 1. Completion percentage 2. Wins 3. 40 times 4. Wonderlic test 5. Arm strength 6. Vertical leap 7. Graduation status 8. Gauntlet performace 9. etc, etc, etc, and on top of that, dollar values associated with each one. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2006, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/top-picks-at-nfl-combines/345504/37 "2006-02-28T15:56:14Z")
> [@Trunk](#): > > I’m sure that teams like the Pats have models that calculate – based on history – the correlation between NFL performance and > > 1. Completion percentage > 2. Wins > 3. 40 times > 4. Wonderlic test > 5. Arm strength > 6. Vertical leap > 7. Graduation status > 8. Gauntlet performace > 9. etc, etc, etc, > > and on top of that, dollar values associated with each one. They probably do, but I don’t think it’s dogmatic like you state. Completion percentage at the college level does not translate to the pro level the way that OPS at the AAA level translates to the MLB. The _Moneyball_ philosophy works in baseball largely because a baseball team is a collection of individuals, and for the most part, you can swap one piece with a new piece irregardless of the rest of the roster. For that reason, overvalued and undervalued player could be swapped and exploited like you outlined. In the NFL, however, changing one piece can often mean a sea change in philosophy or require a shift in matched personnel groupings. I just don’t see that the analogy holds outside of the concept of under/overvalued players leading to a team that avoids having one or two star players soaking up the bulk of the cap. The prospect evaluation component which is relevant to this thread doesn’t translate since NCAA stats do not translate to NFL stats. ---
**Author:** ![zamboniracer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/e9a140/32.png) [@zamboniracer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zamboniracer)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2006, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/top-picks-at-nfl-combines/345504/38 "2006-02-28T17:12:05Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > I hear what you’re saying, but I think it’s a mistake to compare baseball prospects and football prospects like that. For all the busts in the NFL and the decried “workout wonders”, on the whole, especially compared to baseball, the NFL scouts do a really impressive job of vetting potential players. Their system works really well. Which is why the best tight end in the NFL, Antonio Gates, was an undrafted free agent who never played college football but who starred for Kent State at hoops. What I’m saying is that the NFL experts are as prone to human error as anyone else, no matter how expert they say they are. The experts don’t like to think outside the box more than anyone else does. They have their narrow criteria and if the drafted player fails despite scoring highly on the criteria, then it is the player’s fault, not the scouting expert’s. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2006, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/top-picks-at-nfl-combines/345504/39 "2006-02-28T19:32:47Z")
And thats why I said “on the whole”. I could list baseball players who were overlooked in the draft and ones who were busts, but I don’t think the hamsters could handle it. In the NFL examples like this are the exception, not the rule. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/top-picks-at-nfl-combines/345504.md?page=1)