Certainly Pogačar and Vingegaarg, winners of the last 5 TdF are the top contenders. Evenepoel and Roglič would be my next two picks.
I’d say it’ll be Pogacar, Vingegaard, Evenepoel, Roglic.
In that order.
Roglic is the most uncertain in my eyes.
He is an absolute hero, but the TdF has never been his event and it seems his legs are superstitious.
Finally watched sate 10 highlights – finally a real hilly stage. I don’t dislike Pogacar, but it is nice to see other people in jerseys
Brian
I on the other hand, enjoy watching Pogacar in full cannibal mode, leading all classifications:
Come and get it!
This messing around with giving the jersey away to get 10 more minutes of sleep is unbelievably condescending to the other riders.
Stage 11 — unfortunate crash by Pogacar. Ben Healy gets to wear yellow for another stage. Not a lot of change in standings.
Brian
Great move by the GC group in front of Pog to slow down after his crash. And what read like a relatively easy-going stage on paper once again had excitement and drama from km 0 on until the finish.
Just watched stage 12 highlights – Wow Pogacar blows away everyone one a HC climb and gets the stage win, the yellow, and the polka dot (though is is tied for that with Martinez. Pog wins tiebreaker for winning the harder climb). This is after a crash in the previous stage.
Pogacar is almost certain to win IMHO.
Brian
Wow. 4 minute lead after only two mountain stages. I saw a quote somewhere (maybe his team director) that if he’d not crashed on Hautacam, he’d have won that by 4 minutes.
The yellow is his to lose.
So what looks to be a minor mountain top finish, day off then Ventoux. If Vingegaard cannot chip away some of those minutes (anything can happen on Ventoux, including Pogacar adding to his lead) it’s over
For sure. He and his team are just too strong. Of course, anything could happen but unless something spectacular blows up it’ll be 2 for Tadej, 2 for Jonas, and 2 for Tadej.
Remco dropping back and finally abandoning the race at the climb to the Tourmalet. Seemed like he’s sick, he looked totally out of power and energy, maybe it was just psychological because he had to admit to himself that he couldn’t go the pace. Florian Lipowitz now virtually in the white jersey and at the podium.
Stage 13 – shortest time trail in TdF history. With the short distance and climb it was interesting to see bike choice. I didn’t see any pure TT bikes, but a few solid wheels.
Stage 14 – Great job by Martinez to get the polka dot. I didn’t expect a win on the stage, but I was hoping for some points at the finish. No surprise that he ran out of energy. And great job by Arensman to win the stage. Bummer about Evenepoel.
Jorgenson dropped to 15th, Sepp Kuss is 17th.
Brian
I think this is true for TTs within the Tour, but I’m sure there have been TTs at the first day as prologues that were shorter than the 11 km of Friday.
It’s hard to tell sometimes with TTT’s that are also the prologue and are done in short laps, but looks like 1971 had an TTT in Mulhouse, consisting of 4 laps of 2.75 - so also 11km - that Molteni won (10 riders per team only top 5 count).
Eddy Merckx was at the lead of his team as it crossed the line so took the Yellow.
Damn, I googled that in two languages, “shortest prologue of the Tour de France” and “kürzester Prolog der Tour de France”, but nothing comprehensive came up, not even a try by Google’s AI.
Stage 15 – no significant change in standings – great job Tim Wellens with a convincing stage win.
It was him, then Campenaerts at -1:28 then a bunch at -1:36
Brian
Just watched a CBS Sports Sunday broadcast of each past week of the 1986 Tour de France on youtube John Tesh (?!) doing the lead-in and colour, with Phil Liggett calling the play-by-play. They gave a lot of drama to how LeMond helped Hinault win the previous year and was supposedly promised Hinault would help him win the next year (1986) rather than win a record (still would be, lance) sixth tour.
After stage 12 (Pau): LeMond + 5’24"
After stage 14 (Superbagnères) LeMond wins stage yet is +40s. I reckon if Hinault was going to “help” it was via pulling his punches. Or not.
After stage 17: (Serre Chevavlier) LeMond in Yellow. America, Fuck Yeah! (Hinault +2’47")
After stage 18 (Alpe d’Huez) Arms together finish. Hinault +2’47
Yet with just hilly / flat stages ahead, Hinault declares, “The Tour is Not Over”. Maybe he was looking forward three years to LeMond’s amazing TT win on the Champs with the now-common aero-bars and aero-helmets.
LeMond, the only American to win the Tour de France, wins his first of three (could have been five but he was shot in a hunting accident in between)
It left the commercials intact. Ford Trucks are better than Chevy, George C. Scott was selling Renault’s, Bud Light is (something?) - the others are just a light. And a wine cooler called Bartles & James once existed (better than a Bud light)
So the top two will most likely be Tadej and Jonas (4’ 15" back), in that order. Of the remaining GC contenders, who do you think will be on the podium with them?
- Lipowitz (Red Bull Bora) 9’ 03"
- Onley (Picnic Postnl) 11’ 04"
- Roglic (Red Bull Bora) 11’ 42"
- Vauquelin (Arkea B&B) 13’ 20"
- Gall (Decathlon AG2R) 14’ 50"
If he doesn’t get sick or crashes, I think Lipowitz will keep his 3rd place and the white jersey. It’s crazy how clever and tactically he rides, given that he came very late to cycling (from biathlon) and lacks experience (it’s his very first TdF, and only his second grand tour at all after finishing 7th on the Vuelta last year). Just look at today’s stage: when Vingegaard first attacked and Pogacar followed, he kept his own pace and concentrated on his own goals, controlling Oscar Onley and protecting his position. And in the end he stole another 30 seconds from Onley.
And even if Lipo should show weaknesses on the final mountain stages, the team still has Roglic on 5th to take his podium position. Red Bull Bora really are in a very good position, it was clear from the start that they weren’t able to beat Tadej and Jonas, so a possible 3rd and 4th place in GC and the white jersey would be the maximum success for them. Maybe even a stage win (for Primoz?) isn’t out of the picture.
Maybe the other riders are afraid he’s going to shoot them.
Nah, I’m afraid a shouldered rifle would be a big aerodynamic disadvantage…