# Triumph for Thai astrology? **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Created:** [June 12, 2010, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/triumph-for-thai-astrology/542955 "2010-06-12T22:13:32Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 14\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2010, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/triumph-for-thai-astrology/542955/1 "2010-06-12T22:13:32Z")
Friday my wife mentioned that [Thailand would have an 8 Richter earthquake](http://www.phuketgazette.net/archives/articles/2010/article8816.html) this weekend; she wondered if our daughter should stay home from school. I Googled and found only the above link which shows > [@](#): > > PHUKET: The Meteorological Department (MET) has dismissed as groundless Internet reports that a celestial alignment will cause a tsunami-producing earthquake and solar flares tomorrow. > > The rumor appears to have started in Thailand following a posting on a Thai-language website. > > According to the post, a rare alignment of the Earth with Jupiter, Uranus, the Moon and the Sun will create strong gravity effects causing earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and solar flares starting at 6:30pm and persisting for a few days. But just a few hours ago [we read](http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/world/2010-06/13/c_13347658.htm) > [@](#): > > Strong earthquake of 7.7 magnitude hits Indian Ocean, tsunami warning issued What?!?! 😕 :smack: 😃 😕 ---
**Author:** ![TimeWinder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bcef8e/32.png) [@TimeWinder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TimeWinder)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2010, 7:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/triumph-for-thai-astrology/542955/2 "2010-06-13T07:03:39Z")
Even if you’re willing to accept that “a tsunami that does not affect Thailand” is somehow equivalent to “an 8 point earthquake in Thailand,” the effect of Jupiter’s gravity is famously equivalent to that of a soccer ball held at arms length. And Uranus’s makes that look significant. The moon’s gravitational effect on us absolutely dwarfs any contribution from any other planet: Jupiter’s contribution would be lost in the measurement noise. It’s not going to shift sand grains, much less cause faults to slip. And the conjunction was more than a week ago, anyway (early morning June 6). And sunspot activity has been normal. There are earthquakes every day, all over the world. “Predicting” one (and getting both the magnitude and the location wrong) using a non-existent gravitational effect of a non-existent alignment of outer planets (which also, incidentally, have no effect on sunspots) isn’t much of a prediction. ---
**Author:** ![Autolycus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/22d042/32.png) [@Autolycus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Autolycus)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2010, 7:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/triumph-for-thai-astrology/542955/3 "2010-06-13T07:11:30Z")
Spoilsport. ---
**Author:** ![TimeWinder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bcef8e/32.png) [@TimeWinder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TimeWinder)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2010, 7:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/triumph-for-thai-astrology/542955/4 "2010-06-13T07:14:07Z")
> [@Autolycus](#): > > Spoilsport. What I _meant_ to say was, “yes, this is a brilliant confirmation of centuries of pivotal research into the astrological sciences.” It just came out wrong. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2010, 10:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/triumph-for-thai-astrology/542955/5 "2010-06-13T10:03:37Z")
> [@TimeWinder](#): > > Even if you’re willing to accept … And the conjunction was more than a week ago, anyway (early morning June 6)…There are earthquakes every day, all over the world. Please note that I don’t believe in astrology, and thought (and still think) the prediction was absurd. **But** … the prediction reported by my wife and at the link I posted were both for Saturday the 12th, off by only 1 hour since the big earthquake was at 1 am Sunday; the location (Nicobar Islands) is _very_ close to the predicted Phuket venue; the intensity (7.5 or 7.7) makes this earthquake a rare event, and close to the 8-Richter prediction. Let me repeat. I _don’t_ believe in astrology. I _do_ believe that coincidences are often chance accidents. _However_, do give credit to the chance coincidence for what it is. 7.5 Richter events do _not_ “happen every day”, the prediction was for 12 June; the epicenter was only a few hundred kms from the Phuket prediction. (Use of half-truths to debunk calls for its own debunking! 😃 ) ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2010, 11:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/triumph-for-thai-astrology/542955/6 "2010-06-13T11:02:55Z")
> [@TimeWinder](#): > > And the conjunction was more than a week ago, anyway (early morning June 6). The article mentioning the conjunction wasn’t written by the “astrologer.” If the earthquake was predicted for this weekend specifically, and occurred this weekend, that the conjunction was a week earlier is actually a point in the astrologer’s _favor_! Clear? Not that I think he has enough points in favor to make his prediction method valid… 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Achren](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/898d66/32.png) [@Achren](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Achren)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2010, 12:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/triumph-for-thai-astrology/542955/7 "2010-06-13T12:29:12Z")
OR: the reporter is psychic but isn’t aware of it yet. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Telemark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/telemark/32/372_2.png) [@Telemark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telemark)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2010, 3:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/triumph-for-thai-astrology/542955/8 "2010-06-13T15:42:44Z")
It means nothing unless you have a list of all predictions made in this manner. Even a blind dog finds a squirrel once in a while. And it doesn’t really sound accurate to me either, since what was predicted didn’t really happen. ---
**Author:** ![Revtim](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/revtim/32/1042_2.png) [@Revtim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Revtim)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2010, 3:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/triumph-for-thai-astrology/542955/9 "2010-06-13T15:47:45Z")
> [@TimeWinder](#): > > And Uranus’s makes that look significant. There’s a goatse joke in here somewhere… ---
**Author:** ![Larry\_Mudd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/f14d63/32.png) [@Larry\_Mudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Larry_Mudd)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2010, 3:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/triumph-for-thai-astrology/542955/10 "2010-06-13T15:59:22Z")
Don’t worry - [the U.S. has a trump card](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dPHdk6WgbUg&sns=em) in the field of earthquake anticipation. ---
**Author:** ![TimeWinder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bcef8e/32.png) [@TimeWinder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TimeWinder)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2010, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/triumph-for-thai-astrology/542955/11 "2010-06-13T21:33:53Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > 7.5 Richter events do _not_ “happen every day” No, they don’t, but they’re [hardly rare events](http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqinthenews/2010/), either. There have been more than 25 6+ earthquakes thus far this year, and eight 7+ (more than one a month). If we’re going to accept +/1 a day as a “correct guess”, you’ve got a 10% chance of getting it right if you pick any day at all. I’m not denying it’s an interesting coincidence, but it’s about as much of a coincidence as discovering the person on the bus next to you has a birthday in the same month as you do – unexpected, but not outrageously so. ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2010, 3:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/triumph-for-thai-astrology/542955/12 "2010-06-14T03:27:08Z")
I won’t even entertain for a moment the notion that there could ever possibly be anything to astrology, Thai or otherwise. “Even a clock that doesn’t run is right twice a day.” ---
**Author:** ![Anne\_Neville](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Anne\_Neville](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Anne_Neville)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2010, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/triumph-for-thai-astrology/542955/13 "2010-06-14T19:05:30Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > Friday my wife mentioned that [Thailand would have an 8 Richter earthquake](http://www.phuketgazette.net/archives/articles/2010/article8816.html) this weekend; she wondered if our daughter should stay home from school. I wish _my_ mom would have let _me_ stay home from school and have a three-day weekend because an earthquake might happen. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2010, 7:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/triumph-for-thai-astrology/542955/14 "2010-06-15T07:49:20Z")
> [@Anne\_Neville](#): > > I wish _my_ mom would have let _me_ stay home from school and have a three-day weekend because an earthquake might happen. My daughter does extracurricular activities, the day in question was Saturday, so the choice was between 2-day and 1-day weekend. My wife was a very young schoolgirl when _Sky Lab_ [fell down](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skylab#Reentry), and the teachers had all the kids worrying it would fall on their heads. :smack: That was a weekday, so my wife did get a day off from school then!