# Trouble in Paradise (Mafia Game Thread) **URL:** \ **Category:** Thread Games\ **Created:** [October 23, 2015, 10:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585 "2015-10-23T22:52:29Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 11
**Author:** ![Dante\_G](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/977dab/32.png) [@Dante\_G](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dante_G)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2015, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/201 "2015-10-27T18:11:03Z")
> [@Astral\_Rejection](#): > > Ah. I thought you were saying I’m pretty pleasant when going around accusing people. My bad! Are you kidding? You’re an ass!😃 _runs away_ ---
**Author:** ![TexCat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/texcat/32/9041_2.png) [@TexCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TexCat)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2015, 9:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/202 "2015-10-27T21:26:27Z")
> [@Suburban\_Plankton](#): > > I disagree with TexCat here. My felling is that if I’ve noticed something, then the Scum have probably noticed it too, since they have multiple minds working together…so the best thing is to bring it out in the open so that the town knows it as well. I guess it really comes down to a judgement of whether the info is more use to town or to scum and how likely it is that scum actually did notice it. I still think in the case of a doctor crumb that the info is invaluable to scum and of not much use to town, and so I would remain mum about it. > [@Dead\_Cat](#): > > Wow, I’m amazed how the same information (well, for those of us who are town) can be interpreted in so many different ways! Yep. I find this amazing in real life as well. > [@Dead\_Cat](#): > > Like **Biotop** said I just don’t get the whole carrying over from previous games stuff. What’s that thing that all mutual funds say? _Past Performance is Not Necessarily Indicative of Future Results._ But what else do you have to judge a mutual fund with besides past performance. I agree that Prof P is giving off scum vibes. His buddying/mason post early in the game, his continued LTL posts. But I remember his play in Storyteller’s game. There were several people in the dead thread that thought that Prof P was scummy, scum, scum. Prof P could not possibly be a townie. But he was. And based on that scale, I don’t think he’s quite as likely to be scum this game. > [@HookerChemical](#): > > This is as good a place to start as any. I took a look at DC and PP’s posts as promised, with this question in mind specifically. Here are some of the more combative or problematic. (“Combative” maybe not have been the best word): > > That one sticks in by craw. Thin evidence, strong opinion. > > This also sticks with me. Maybe it’s becase PP is generally a pretty non-combative poster even when he’s making accusations. (You too, Astral.) This is more the Plumpudding school of accusation. Yea, I’m not sure that combative is the best word either, but in any case, I’m not sure that it’s indicative of scumminess. IIRC Plumpudding was town. And thin evidence on D1 may be the best we get. No reason not to have a strong opinion about it, in my book. ---
**Author:** ![snfaulkner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snfaulkner/32/433_2.png) [@snfaulkner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snfaulkner)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2015, 9:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/203 "2015-10-27T21:27:50Z")
Does anyone have time right now to do a vote count summary thingy? I actually have to do _sigh_ WORK today at work…at least for a little bit. ---
**Author:** ![Dead\_Cat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9fc29f/32.png) [@Dead\_Cat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dead_Cat)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2015, 9:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/204 "2015-10-27T21:37:04Z")
I suspect a point-by-point such as this may not help my case, but I’m going to do it anyway. > [@HookerChemical](#): > > This context is important. This isn’t a combative post, but it shows there was a pivot from lynch the lurker to lynching the loudest. Yes, that’s true - as I said before, I can see the logic in lynch the lurker, but the more Prof. P posted the more I got a strong read of wolfiness. > [@](#): > > So a smudge with virtually no reasoning behind it. Given the very early stage of the game, it’s not too troubling, but it led to escalation. Just because I chose not to state my reasoning at that stage doesn’t mean there was none. I just felt the Prof was pushing lynch the lurker much too hard, which made me think that would play into his hands if he was a wolf who liked to post a lot. I didn’t find his explanations sufficiently reassuring, and I thought there was a fair amount of fluff to try and disguise his true role. > [@](#): > > That one sticks in by craw. Thin evidence, strong opinion. Well, thin evidence is all we have at this stage. I admit it’s a strong opinion - when I have one, I find it hard to swallow it. I suspect we will soon find out if I made the right move or have got myself lynched because of it (or possibly neither I suppose, though I recognise that if I’m wrong about the Prof and survive the night, I’ll have a hard time saving myself next day). > [@](#): > > This also sticks with me. Maybe it’s becase PP is generally a pretty non-combative poster even when he’s making accusations. (You too, Astral.) This is more the Plumpudding school of accusation. Having not read much of the previous games, I don’t know the Prof’s style nor follow the Plumpudding reference. It’s true I have perhaps been unnecessarily strident and I can only repeat my apologies to the Prof if I turn out to be wrong. > [@](#): > > This part isn’t as combative, but it makes a point I want to disagree with. We all come into this game with baggage. Actually, I don’t, which perhaps does put me at a disadvantage. C’est la vie. ---
**Author:** ![Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/prof.pepperwinkle/32/13627_2.png) [@Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Prof.Pepperwinkle)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2015, 10:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/205 "2015-10-27T22:03:18Z")
Well, I accept your apology, but I’d much rather live. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2015, 10:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/206 "2015-10-27T22:20:58Z")
I’m hardly Prof. P’s advocate, but I don’t get the scummy vibes at all. ---
**Author:** ![HookerChemical](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/278dde/32.png) [@HookerChemical](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HookerChemical)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2015, 11:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/207 "2015-10-27T23:27:04Z")
Individually, I don’t get scummy vibes from either Dead Cat or Prof P, but when I look at them at the same time, I get a strong feeling that one is scum. The needle is on the Dead Cat side of the meter. > [@Dead\_Cat](#): > > Having not read much of the previous games, I don’t know the Prof’s style nor follow the Plumpudding reference. It’s true I have perhaps been unnecessarily strident and I can only repeat my apologies to the Prof if I turn out to be wrong. Plumpudding is a particularly in-your-face accuser. He doesn’t hold anything back and can be fairly aggressive about it. Then again, he was town, so I can’t say it’s a wolf tell but rather a confrontation style. To be fair, you’re diet Plumpudding, which is a horrible desert, but may be townie. ---
**Author:** ![Sario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sario/32/18580_2.png) [@Sario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sario)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2015, 2:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/208 "2015-10-28T02:13:06Z")
I have read the last two pages of posts about 4 times now and nothing is sticking. :smack: I’ll go read though again and hope that I can figure out what’s going on. ---
**Author:** ![Octarine](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/22d042/32.png) [@Octarine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Octarine)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2015, 3:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/209 "2015-10-28T03:33:40Z")
> [@HookerChemical](#): > > Individually, I don’t get scummy vibes from either Dead Cat or Prof P, but when I look at them at the same time, I get a strong feeling that one is scum. The needle is on the Dead Cat side of the meter. This seems like a fair assessment to me, though my needle’s going back and forth (hmm, maybe I need a new meter . . .). There’s too much antagonism for them both to be Townies. ---
**Author:** ![Biotop](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biotop/32/321_2.png) [@Biotop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biotop)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2015, 5:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/210 "2015-10-28T05:03:19Z")
> [@Octarine](#): > > This seems like a fair assessment to me, though my needle’s going back and forth (hmm, maybe I need a new meter . . .). There’s too much antagonism for them both to be Townies. Just my two cents: I think it is quite possible for two Town players to be very antagonistic with each other. A wolf might well choose to avoid such an attention-drawing scenario while Town players who are misguided but in earnest go at it full force. ---
**Author:** ![Biotop](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biotop/32/321_2.png) [@Biotop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biotop)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2015, 6:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/211 "2015-10-28T06:48:22Z")
This post is probably more convoluted than I might like, but the hour is late and the day long. If nothing else, it gives some of my thoughts I would have posted had I been able to play more this past week. * * * My idea early on was to try and give each player a starting score of 71 based on my level of trust at the beginning of the game, and then to begin adding or subtracting points based on postings and the general development of the game. **Note: my 71% is based on the notion of four Scum. I suppose there could be three or five. But, four seems right —so that is my chosen base. I don’t think it really matters too much to the overall point assessing scheme**. If _Scientific Mafia_ ™ turns out to be a winning strategy, then maybe I can quit my job and turn professional. Just kidding. My terrible week at work has slowed down the process, but if I am fortunate enough to last a few Game Days here maybe the idea will develop better. I am glad the First Day is long. ToDay is sort of like a “Meet & Greet’ to me, and I like that aspect. I feel I am already getting to know a few of the players, and that will help later on when things start heating up. **Right now I think of everyone as probable Town**. Some are more probable than others, of course. Yes, we have little to go on, but little is not nothing. So here goes: (Plus and minus votes are purely based on my gut readings of particular scumminess or towniness I or others have observed.) Feel Good About So Far **Astral Rejection** +3 : Good solid commentary. Seems pro-town. **HookerChemical** +2: Strong commentary and genuinely seems to be searching for wolves. **DeadCat** +2: It’s not so much that I agree or disagree with **DC** ’s comments about **Prof. Pepperwinkle** (though in some ways I do agree), but it’s the vehemence with which s/he is posting that strikes me. I don’t understand how anyone can be so very sure of anything at this point of the game. That said, I cannot see a wolf storming into the battle with such reckless certainty: (“I am literally prepared to die on that hill” --post #153) Why would a wolf act so sure on day 1? What could s/he gain in Town Cred? I can understand an opinionated reckless town player…but not a Scum one. If we lynch **Prof. Pepperwinkle** and he is town, then a lot of negative attention will turn **DC** ’s way. Wouldn’t a wolf be more likely to point tentatively as opposed to being so visibly in a position to be shown wrong? And if **PP** is Town, **DeadCat** WOULD eventually be shown wrong. Of course the irony is that I AM giving **DC** town cred for this attitude, because I think the tactic might be too precariious for newbie Scum. **Octarine** : +1: I find myself liking **Octarine** ’s few posts. I get a good Town feel. Don’t know what else to say. Read them yourself and see if you don’t agree. Nothing One Way or the Other **TexCat** Even: She voted for me for a decent reason albeit a misguided one. I disagree with her on whether spotty tells are a better reason than “lynch the lurker” for a vote (post #62), but posts like #202 are insightful. My gut tells me she is too experienced a player to be against LTL and then to not post very much if Scum. **Suburban Plankton** Even: Not enough information to really go in any direction yet. The breadcrumbing discussion at Post #127 did catch my interest. **Dante G** Even: I don’t know what to make of the whole “did I vote for **WF Tomba**?” thing. Slightly scummy I guess, but nothing to cost a point yet. **Mahaloth** Even: I don’t particularly like his reason for voting for me in post #124 and then turning right around and sort of agreeing with what I was arguing about in Post #192. That said, I think he really loves this game and I like the \*Improve Mafia \*thread he references in Post #108. That link is a helpful read. Of course caring about the game in no way relates to whether he is Town or Scum. Not enough data. Slightest scum lean but no point deducted. **Sario** Even: I think I might have previously mentioned that I don’t care what role **Sario** had in previous games 😛 That said, there is little to go on here. He says in post #120 that his vote on **Professor Pepperwinkle** was “kind of a joke”, but is more serious in post #150. But I think **Sario** is right in Post #150 to feel those suspicions. Wish I had more to go on, but the game is young. **Precambrianmollusc** Even: Makes a First Day case against **Professor P** in Post #68. Sticks with it in Post #88. Not a lot of other commentary. Sort of a Town vibe, but I can’t read anything more. The cheese puns don’t work so well after the fifth or sixth time poring through this entire 5-page thread. Those Losing Points **SN Faulkner** -1: Too much cheese, not enough scum hunting. Something feels off to me. I might be reading too much into nothing here. Oh well, a gut -1. **WF Tomba** -1: I think Post #40 that earned him a vote _was_ a bad idea, but as someone else said, bad ideas are not necessarily Scum ideas. Post #94 where he votes for **Astral** is to my reading a bit paranoid. Not that I don’t think some paranoia is justified in this game. I am probably being too harsh here, but it is only a one point deduction. **IRConfused** -3: I really don’t have a lot to go on, but what I do have I don’t like too much. I think a vote for **Sario** because of his previous game’s role is not good play. I think that when someone ( **DeadCat** ) calls you on this and you accuse them of defending **Sario** , then it smells bad. Indeed Post #60 is one of my least favorite of the entire Day so far because **DeadCat** was not in any way defending\*\* Sario\*\*. **IRConfused** , please give me some good reasons not to consider a vote for you. Or how about some real THIS game reasons to show you are actually reading posts in THIS game for clues. \*\* Professor Pepperwinkle\*\* -3: I get the reasons for Lynch the Lurker. I think we all do by now. However there are other good ways to sniff out players for scumminess or towniness, like maybe **analyzing posts**. I feel as though LTL is the only theory **Professor Pepperwinkle** brought to the table and I have to ask myself why. This sounds harsh but there is no way we are going to win this game by just sitting around and voting each Day for whomever posts the fewest times. Thing is, I believe there is a very good chance PP is just being friendly and is Town, but I need to see that he is actively hunting Scum. That I have not seen. If a fellow player takes the time to discover and post possible reasons to suspect someone of scumminess, then it helps for other Town players to maybe try give those reasons some scrutiny. **Professor Pepperwinkle** , You have posted a lot, indeed way more than anyone else. Please use some of your postings to help the rest of us decide whether a theory we post has merit or not. And if you are indeed Town, see if you can find some of those reasons yourself to suspect Towniness or Scumminess in your fellow players. I do not want to vote off a prolific Town player —even if I believe your flip will give us more information than any other right now. Convince me you are a Town player interested in catching Scum. * * * Vote Prof. Pepperwinkle ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2015, 12:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/212 "2015-10-28T12:11:04Z")
\*\*Official Vote Count Prof Pepperwinkle - 5 votes: (Sario 38)(Precambrianmollusc 76)(Dead Cat 100)(snfaulkner 170)(Biotop 211) Biotop - 2 vote: (Texcat 50) (Mahaloth 124) Sario - 2 votes: (IRConfused 55)(Prof. Pepperwinkle 191) snfaulkner - 1 vote: (Suburban Plankton 127) Astral Rejection - 1 vote: (WF Tomba 94) Dead Cat - 1 vote: (Hookerchemical 122) Mahaloth - 1 vote: (Dante G 129) IRConfused - 1 vote: (Octarine 160) This will be my final official vote count prior to the EoD, which will be Friday at noon EST. I received only two PMs regarding a shorter day, and both of them were against the notion. I know that in my original rules I stated that we would do a 4/2 with weekends automatically extending through the weekend. I have since realized that the practical result of that method is to just create a 4/3 schedule. Since that seems even less practical, we’ll just stick with a 5/2 for the time being. Once we’re down a significant number of players, we can look at tightening things up a bit.\*\* ---
**Author:** ![Astral\_Rejection](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/258eb7/32.png) [@Astral\_Rejection](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Astral_Rejection)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2015, 12:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/213 "2015-10-28T12:15:05Z")
This is the kind of post I almost never see scum make on Day 1. Like Hooker, this gives me a town lean for your effort and reasoning. Thanks for helping me narrow down my own pool of town/neutral/scum leans. ---
**Author:** ![HookerChemical](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/278dde/32.png) [@HookerChemical](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HookerChemical)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2015, 12:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/214 "2015-10-28T12:32:17Z")
Prof P/Dead Cat could certainly be town on town. In which case I suspect scum are sitting back or taking a fairly moderate stance and letting us do the work of hanging one. I think scum/scum is much less likely based on the “scum plans are simple” approach. Biotop has stolen the core of my next planned post. That’s the bad news. The good news is I get a much easier job of going through his list and noting differences rather than compiling the whole thing myself. ---
**Author:** ![Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/prof.pepperwinkle/32/13627_2.png) [@Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Prof.Pepperwinkle)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2015, 12:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/215 "2015-10-28T12:34:19Z")
I’ll look back and see if I can salvage myself from the previous posts, but I find I have a habit of putting my foot in my mouth each time I post. It’ll take a little bit. ---
**Author:** ![Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/prof.pepperwinkle/32/13627_2.png) [@Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Prof.Pepperwinkle)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2015, 12:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/216 "2015-10-28T12:57:45Z")
But in the meantime… In the first game Sario lurked, and was Scum. In the second game Sario lurked, and was Scum. In the present game Sario is lurking… ---
**Author:** ![Astral\_Rejection](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/258eb7/32.png) [@Astral\_Rejection](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Astral_Rejection)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2015, 1:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/217 "2015-10-28T13:07:26Z")
> [@Sario](#): > > I have read the last two pages of posts about 4 times now and nothing is sticking. :smack: > > I’ll go read though again and hope that I can figure out what’s going on. Prof P, I’m still considering Sario, but throw this onto the pile of suspicious posts. I often see scum promise a future re-read, because it gets them off the hook (“look how townie I’m being, reading and re-reading!”) and they rarely have to follow through on it. This post in particular really caught my attention. ---
**Author:** ![TexCat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/texcat/32/9041_2.png) [@TexCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TexCat)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2015, 2:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/218 "2015-10-28T14:57:21Z")
**unvote Biotop** Thanks for that very nice post. I didn’t realize that I was against Lynch The Lurker. I went back to reread my post 62 and see that it does seem to say that. > [@Prof.Pepperwinkle](#): > > In 2 or 3 Days we’ll have actual evidence. Right now it’s all guesswork, except for tried and true formulae such as “lynch the lurker”. And even that isn’t 100% foolproof. I was bothered by Prof P claiming that everything was guesswork and that it would be 2 or 3 Days (Days! meaning game Days, not days meaning 24 hours) before we had evidence. Prof P seems to be using this as an excuse not to analyze posts, not to make a real case, not to actually participate. > [@Prof.Pepperwinkle](#): > > **If** I was voting now, I would skip over Octarine and IRConfused, since they are new, and new players lurk instinctively, or at least did in the last two games. Both of the others should know not to lurk by now, so I’d probably vote for Tomba, since voting for Sario might look like a retaliation vote. No consideration for the content of the posts? And being worried about how a vote might “look”? These are not the actions of a townie. And when Prof did vote and chose Sario instead, it was not based on some argument that Sario was more likely to be scum, it was emotionally satisfying. Prof. P does not seem to be interested in finding or lynching scum. **Vote: Prof P** ---
**Author:** ![TexCat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/texcat/32/9041_2.png) [@TexCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TexCat)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2015, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/219 "2015-10-28T15:04:54Z")
> [@Johnny\_Bravo](#): > > \*\* > This will be my final official vote count prior to the EoD, which will be Friday at noon EST. > \*\* ☹ I am in favor of more frequent vote counts, especially towards the end of Day. ---
**Author:** ![WF\_Tomba](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/d9b06d/32.png) [@WF\_Tomba](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WF_Tomba)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2015, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/220 "2015-10-28T16:12:37Z")
Just out of curiosity, does anybody know the average mislynch rate for first Days? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585.md?page=10) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585.md?page=12)