# Trouble in Paradise (Mafia Game Thread) **URL:** \ **Category:** Thread Games\ **Created:** [October 23, 2015, 10:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585 "2015-10-23T22:52:29Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 12
**Author:** ![Dante\_G](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/977dab/32.png) [@Dante\_G](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dante_G)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2015, 4:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/221 "2015-10-28T16:25:08Z")
Not sure, but I can almost guarantee it is high. The only people that know for sure who are Scum are the Scum players, so the rest of players left grasping at anything in peoples posts that may seem Scum like. This is the main reason that I was never really for Day 1 lynches, but I don’t make the rules when I play, so I got to go with the program. I do think that next time I run a game, I will change up the way a lynch is decided based on what Day it is. ---
**Author:** ![Astral\_Rejection](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/258eb7/32.png) [@Astral\_Rejection](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Astral_Rejection)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2015, 4:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/222 "2015-10-28T16:27:57Z")
> [@WF\_Tomba](#): > > Just out of curiosity, does anybody know the average mislynch rate for first Days? It’s generally pretty high, but I don’t think that’s a flaw for D1 lynches. There are many more town than scum, and the information we gain with the first (and each subsequent) lynch is how town turns our numerical superiority into a win. And every once in a while, we succeed in handing scum a nice D1 blow! ---
**Author:** ![Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/prof.pepperwinkle/32/13627_2.png) [@Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Prof.Pepperwinkle)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2015, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/223 "2015-10-28T16:28:46Z")
The odds of toDay’s lynch being a mislynch looks to be 100%. Et tu, TexCat? No, I don’t look for scum on the first day, because I realize how high the mislynch percentage is for the first day, and it’s so easy to say something unguarded that others take and run the wrong with it. I look to people lurking, to votes, and then, ultimately, apparently I make the wrong guess. ---
**Author:** ![Astral\_Rejection](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/258eb7/32.png) [@Astral\_Rejection](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Astral_Rejection)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2015, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/224 "2015-10-28T16:32:41Z")
> [@Dante\_G](#): > > This is the main reason that I was never really for Day 1 lynches, but I don’t make the rules when I play, so I got to go with the program. Baseball would be easier if we got rid of strikes, but that doesn’t mean it’s a good idea. 😃 Where you see a flaw, I see a necessary (and valuable) part of playing the game. Town can always voluntarily choose not to lynch anyone on D1 if we collectively decide we don’t want one. It’s easy, and perfectly within the rules: everybody just needs to agree not to vote for anybody else. But good luck figuring out who’s town and who’s scum from _that!_ ---
**Author:** ![TexCat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/texcat/32/9041_2.png) [@TexCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TexCat)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2015, 5:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/225 "2015-10-28T17:36:29Z")
> [@Prof.Pepperwinkle](#): > > The odds of toDay’s lynch being a mislynch looks to be 100%. > > Et tu, TexCat? > > No, I don’t look for scum on the first day, because I realize how high the mislynch percentage is for the first day, and it’s so easy to say something unguarded that others take and run the wrong with it. I look to people lurking, to votes, and then, ultimately, apparently I make the wrong guess. The thing is that even if you are determined to vote a lurker, I think you should still be looking for scum. You are a lurker IMHO, even though you are posting quite a bit. Actively lurking. You’re here, but not participating by looking for scum, examining and questioning posts. ---
**Author:** ![Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/prof.pepperwinkle/32/13627_2.png) [@Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Prof.Pepperwinkle)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2015, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/226 "2015-10-28T17:38:20Z")
**A history of why I am in trouble** , by Prof. P. All posts are mine unless stated otherwise. Patent Pending. Void where prohibited by law. Sorry if some of this sounds cranky, but I’m allergic to rope burn. (9) Lynch the lurkers! Unless, y’know, they have a good reason again. (10) I wish Cygnus was here. Biotop, Tomba is a very good guesser; he can be the unofficial Third Mason this go-round. –These were coming up right after the Sign-In Thread, and I shoulda but them there. I was merely enthusiastic about starting a game, and, since Biotop, Cygnus & I won the first game, and Tomba guessed well in the second game (and I didn’t), I was hoping for a repeat. (32) So, is there any benefit to a no-lynch first day? –Here I was just trying to start the conversation ball rolling. Little did I know it would roll over me. Sario (38) > [@](#): > > I’ll get us started then > > Vote Prof. Pepperwinkle > > for bringing up the no-lynch again. –He later said this was a joke vote. (49) Okay, my “No Lynch” question was just a conversation starter. It seems we’re all agreed, so moving on: who to lynch? Lurkers, at least for the first couple of days. But it’s too early to really know who is lurking yet, so we can either sit around and wait until somebody goofs, or follow the sterling example of our own Ronan the Accuser, and have it. …everybody knows the real question is: is Sario scum once more? –[that should have read “have at it”.] And the Sario question was also a joke. I’m going to have to remember that paranoid Townies have no humor, they even lynch for cheese puns. (51) Those currently at only one post are Mahaloth, PCM and IRConfused. Mahaloth, have you been able to fix your telecommunications issue? –What I should have said and didn’t was that I was trying to set up a baseline of posters who were continuously lurkers. Granted, this is a now a late claim of intent on earlier posts, but it’s what I was doing. (58) Dead Cat > [@](#): > > I am now pretty suspicious of Prof. P, and a little suspicious of IRConfused and TexCat. But not suspicious enough to vote for any of them yet. (59) Might I ask the grounds of those suspicions? Sario’s been scum for the last two rounds. My comments were more joke asides than serious, at least at this point in the game. –My questioning Dead Cat’s being pretty suspicious of me seems to me to be the whole reason for his gut-feeling, die-upon-this-hill vote. (61) In 2 or 3 Days we’ll have actual evidence. Right now it’s all guesswork, except for tried and true formulae such as “lynch the lurker”. And even that isn’t 100% foolproof. –We don’t have evidence now. Evidence comes from vote results, evidence comes from looking at posts and post counts. What we have now are paranoid suspicions and sometimes wild jumps at conclusions. (62) TexCat > [@](#): > > We’re never going to have a lynch that’s 100% guaranteed. And I think we do have evidence. We have the evidence of Biotop trying a little too much to look town with his Go Town. We have the evidence of Prof P maligning Sario based on some reverse gambler’s falacy(?). We have the evidence of IRConfused agreeing with him and accusing Dead Cat of defending Sario. I think any of those 3 would make a better D1 vote than a LTL vote. –Of course, your mileage may vary. (63) I was teasing Sario about that back over on the Sign-In Thread. He’s playing because of that. I have no clue as to whether or not he’s town more than anybody else. –Of course, now that he’s still lurking I have a clue. (66) Low-posters: Astral Rejection 3 WF Tomba 3 Suburban Plankton 3 Octarine 2 Precambrianmollusc 1 Mahaloth 1 Going after the ones who are actively and frequently posting (as our Moderator requested we do) is called “Lynch The Loud”. That works a whole lot less well than “lynch the lurker”. –Continuing what I started in 51. This drew complaints from IRC, PCM and Octarine. (71) Uh, go on over to [Mafiascum.org](http://Mafiascum.org) and read up. Lurking is one of the best known scum tells. –Look! I’m telling people how to recognize scum! (72) I wasn’t Loud for my first game (a couple of months ago). But after the Loud Townsfolk were lynched repeatedly those of us remaining had to speak up as well. –Here I make the mistake of referring back to another game a number of us participated in. I’ll do it again and again, because it worked well for me last game. (76) Precambrianmollusc > [@](#): > > Quote: > Originally Posted by Astral Rejection > Gotta think of a new cheese pun check-in. Wheel see if I can come up with something that isn’t too grating. I hope you guys don’t get feta up with them. > Well I’d Assa the same question but there is an Abondance of cheese, and Basing on the number of players , if you Caerphilly look, and I admit I would be Adelost at the full list we could Comte to a conclusion that the mafia Raclette should go to Hellim. > > Maybe we could Chevre some ideas, and if our suspicions Paneer out and we don’t Mish anything , and don’t Glouster ver facts, and so long as we are Brie f in our discussion (ok that was a stretch, but Imsil thinking about cheese ) the outcome maybe not so Greve. But , like me , Dolcelatte know what the outcome will be in the morning, and you Gouda think it will all be for the best. > In this long Saga, at the end I say Havarti, you foul wolf mafia scum > > Anyway, much rain here in not so sunny Houston but , none the less to the lynching > > Prof P > Post 10 – setting up the narration of lynching low post counters > Post 11 – massive snuggles up to Biotop and Toomba – not that he actually knows they are scum or town or anything , well he might. > Post 12 – fluff – but helps his post count. Wouldn’t want to be a lurker or anything . > Post 15 – fluff , but keeping the whole – post count is critical in the first few hours of the game theme > Post 32 – no lynch? > Post 36 – the day starts ! > Post 38 Sario votes for Prof P > Psot 49 – Apparently we are all agreed that his “ just getting the conversation started on lynch the lurker is agreed so , best get after it. Once again trtying to lead the narrative . Throws out a town vibe on Sario, surly he couldn’t be scum again. Prof P seams to know so > Post 51 – back with the lurkers > Post 59 – no wait the whole Sario thing is a joke > Psot 61 – LtL Tried and true??? Oh but it isn’t . in the same post. > Post 63 – Of course not > Post 66 - lynch lurkers because its fool proof , or not , depending how you read post 61. So we should lynch these guys, or if they turn up town, then obviously Lynch the lurker is not 100%, as the Prof told us in post 61. A very convenient, having it both ways, post. Also snuggles to the moderator , after all lynching lurkers is what he requested. > Post 71 – Argument to authority – [mafiascum.org](http://mafiascum.org) > > Well > The lynch the lurker bandwagon set in stone best rule ever , only 8 hrs into the game is odd. I am sure the “ I was just getting discussion started defense , will come out, but that is not the crux of the issue. > > In post 11 prof P come out with massive pro town support on Tomba to Biotop. Prof P has no basis for that , unless he knows Tomba is town, hence a huge snuggle. And why to Biotop, again seems sure he is town. > > Vote Prof. Pepperwinkle –and this is where things start to go downhill for me. PCM is attributing motives to me I didn’t have. (78) Nice job with the cheese jokes. If you will kindly go back and look at the Sign-Up Thread, you’ll see I was teasing Sario about his previous scum roles then. I’ve been doing the same here and now, it’s just more obvious since the game is on. I’ve stopped that, and, again, don’t know if Sario is or isn’t Town. Regarding Post 11: when last I saw Biotop he was leading Town to a major victory. I coulda used his judgment last game. Tomba was right on the money in his early guesses in the last game. “Lynch the lurker” works better in the early part of the game than anything else I’ve found in my brief run, and has been recommended by more seasoned players as well, not to mention Mafiascum. Yes, it’s too early (being the weekend) to seriously apply it, but as we get closer to the first lynch date, I have every reason to hope others will pick it up and run with it as well. Yeah, I post a lot. It’s my style. Oh, and kudos on typing more understandably this go-round! –I return at once with some defense. Town seems to like attacks better than defense, with a few notable exceptions, such as: (79) HookerChemical > [@](#): > > Lynch the loud is a bad way to start if we’re essentially poking around blind. At least they’re making a record. There are a few things I picked up from watching a game and playing the previous. If others care to disagree, we can discuss, but my takeaways (for the benefit of new and inexperienced) were: > • Get on the record. Even if you’re about to be mis-lynched for a horrible cheese pun, get your thoughts on the record. It gives people something to review even after your death. Maybe you’ve seen something others haven’t. Creating a record is townie. And if you flip scum, at least we can consider that when viewing the record. Lurking doesn’t create a record and is therefore faintly scummy. And if lynch the lurker results in a mis-lynch, town loses somebody who wasn’t contributing substantially, which hurts less than losing a verbose townie who’s at least scum hunting. > • Post count is a rough cut of contribution. One robust post can be worth more than several check-ins or off-topic posts. See the “Anatomy of a clusterfuck” post from storyteller’s game a couple back for an example of something that carried the weight of several. (This is my own expansion on the previous point I picked up from others’ comments.) > • Scum tends to operate in a straight forward manner. There may be simple fake-outs and bluffs, but town tends to think they’re operating wheels within wheels within wheels. It’s possible, but it is frequently not the case. > • Town sometimes spends too much time trying to look town than to act town. Town needs to hunt scum and act townie. Looking townie should follow. (85) Precambrianmollusc My vote really isn’t for the loud/lurker thing, that’s a valid discussion, the Prof is pushing it pretty hard though. In this post ; Quote: Originally Posted by Prof. Pepperwinkle I wish Cygnus was here. Biotop, Tomba is a very good guesser; he can be the unofficial Third Mason this go-round. he is essentially calling Tomba confirmed town. Unless the Prof is a wolf , he cannot know what side Tomba is on, so there would be no basis for calling him the “unofficial third mason”, unless the prof knows for sure that Tomba is town. He also should not know what alignment Bio is, yet seams to show no caution in giving helpful advice. Also indicative that he is pretty certain Bio is town. I suppose that the Prof could be a mason, if we have them, and is handing out his fellow masons identities for all to see, but I can’t see anyone making that kind of error. –Boy, I wish I could do a role claim. That might be the only thing that could save me. As I mentioned above, and commented since, I am not claiming any knowledge of Biotop, Tomba or anybody else. (87) No, it’s just wishful thinking on my part. –responding the above from PCM. (100) Dead Cat > [@](#): > > Quote: > Originally Posted by Astral Rejection > Time for my gut feel vote to make the lynch runner-up a 5-way tie: > > Vote Dead Cat > > Of our no-voters, s/he’s been mixing it up the most, with not much to show for it. A few mentioned suspicions, but not enough to vote for any of them, and a few comments on the game state. That’s more or less a wash this early in the game, but this comment makes my scumdar tingle a touch: > > It’s factual - yes, the guardian will indeed protect Dead Cat if the guardian both exists and thinks Dead Cat is worth saving, but it doesn’t actually make any sense in the context of the conversation. It’s in response to someone talking about a lack of day participation during the weekend. It’s not even necessarily wrong, but it just doesn’t seem right to me, and that’s enough to earn an early Day 1 vote. > I’ll just say that my comment about a possible guardian was not meant to be in context as such, it was just a general comment about how I feel. Nor was it meant to be “breadcrumbing” - first I’d heard of the term. > > Anyway, while I am generally in favour of “lynch the lurker” as a valid opening tactic (for the reasons already stated by me and others), I feel at this point we have a real opportunity to catch a wolf cold (as it were). > > VOTE Prof. Pepperwinkle > > Prof., if I’m wrong I’m really sorry but I’m having a hard time thinking of anything you can say now that will change my mind. > > Oh, and Astral Rejection, that seems like a pretty weak reason for voting for me, so you’re under my suspicion now as well. Isn’t this climate of fear fun? –So, Astral, having interrogated the witnesses thoroughly, voted for Dead Cat, causing him to need to appear more decisive and therefore voted for me on suspicions based on thin air? Or am I projecting? If you’re keeping track, there are at this point three votes on me: Sario’s joke vote; PCM’s vote based on attributing motives I didn’t have, and Dead Cat’s vote based on ??? (102) I’d like to suggest you go and read over the last two games here to see why I’m so strong on “lynch the lurker”. –This as a response to Dead Cat, above. I shouldn’t have done that, I should have summarized the fact as that 5 out of 6 scum in the first game, and 2 out of 3 in the second were lurkers. (116) Biotop > [@](#): > > I’m trying to catch up on the game after a hellish day at work. Tomorrow doesn’t look much better but i hope I have some real time tomorrow evening to at least get some notes in order. > > But I do want to get something off my chest that’s bothering me. Can we all please quit talking so much about what happened in the last two games? I have been guilty of this early on, and I plan to stop as of this post. What happened in the last two games might tell someone a tiny bit about a player’s style, but one or two games is a pretty small amount of data from which to really pluck useful information. A player’s style also has to be somewhat influenced by what is actually happening in a game, so “style” from only one or two games might easily be misleading. > > This is a new game, and whatever occurred story-wise in the last games is irrelevant. That’s why Prof. Pepperwinkle’s chummy post bothered me so much early on. I don’t know you in this game, Prof. Pepperwinkle so why should I “mason-up” with you or anyone else? I’m not trying to be rude, but this is a new game. If we have four Scum then anyone I come into contact with has a 71% chance of being town and a 29% chance of being Scum. To start off I will trust everyone here 71%. Further trust or distrust will hopefully be earned. > > That’s also why I agree with Astral Rejection and so dislike the vote of IRConfused against Sario. Who cares what role Sario had in the last game or even the last 10 games? It does not matter. If you are Town and are considering Sario, then judge him on THIS game please. Look for a reason to trust him or someone else less than 71% in THIS game. > > [OOG]If this sounds cranky, sorry. It was a rough day at work and promises to be a rough few months entering into the holiday season. Not my favorite time of year.[/OOG] (117) Well, Biotop, I haven’t much else to talk about if I can’t compare people’s past styles to the new game. I will, however, wait until later in the week to see who actually has been lurking the past week, since the weekends are always light in number of posts. –and, yes, that sounded cranky. (119) I want to thank everyone who has voted for me. It’s an honor just to be nominated. –Here the plucky Professor tries to keep his sense of humor. (120) Sario > [@](#): > > On the subject of the previous games: > Statistically speaking, a given player is unlikely to be scum multiple games in a row, however it can happen as I myself proved. It is much more useful to look at play styles though, as Biotop pointed out, the data set is rather small. > > My vote on Prof was meant mostly as a joke, but there seems to be some momentum building against him that I want to look at before I decide whether to leave my vote or change it. –Oh, look, momentum as a reason. Join The Bandwagon is a scum tell, right? (121) Well, I figured you were joking. PCM’s vote comes from me posting a lot and crying “lynch the lurker” too early. Dead Cat voted on me because… I don’t really know. Dead Cat, why exactly are you voting to lynch me? –and here I made the mistake of not going back and reading PCM’s whole post, and mis-attributing his motives about my misattributed motives. (122) HookerChemical > [@](#): > > Do I get points for catching Johnny’s first fuck-up? I’ve still got a vote lingering on WF Tomba (post 45). Having noted that… > > UNOVTE WF TOMBA > VOTE DEAD CAT > > This is a “gut feeling” based vote. DC is coming off as unnecessarily combative, which is a potential scum tell. I don’t know if it’s the fact that I played the last game with Prof. P and get the references he’s making, but his comments weren’t scummy. They’re self-referential and meta, akin to the cheese joke running gags, but they weren’t initially scummy. It may be “good vibes” carryover from last game, but I’m siding with Prof P in this dispute for now. I’ll reread the conversation again tomorrow again and see if I still feel that way. One factor in DC’s favor is that it’s a poor scum gambit to be unnecessarily combative with a verbose and friendly poster when you’re the newcomer. “Good vibes” and history are likely to carry over to the new guy. I’ll be considering this and trying to put away “good vibes” the next time I reread. (123) …and that’s from the guy I voted to lynch, wrongly. (125) HookerChemical > [@](#): > > True, but you were verbose and provided useful information for scum hunting (far more than me). And I clearly understand that you’re referencing WF Tomba’s post correctly identifying the three scum far ahead of any of the rest of us, which it seems to be what you’re referencing in your “mason” post that kickstarted this whole kerfuffle. (126) Yeah, I got carried away. The first game I played there were three of us basically confirmed Town (Me, Biotop, Cygnus). The next game due to claims, there were three of us confirmed town (me, Mahaloth and Tomba). I was hoping to continue that run. –The thing is: I think Dead Cat probably IS Town, and probably in a Power Role that’s gone to his head. (143) Precambrianmollusc > [@](#): > > Quote: > Originally Posted by Prof. Pepperwinkle > Well, I figured you were joking. PCM’s vote comes from me posting a lot and crying “lynch the lurker” too early. Dead Cat voted on me because… I don’t really know. Dead Cat, why exactly are you voting to lynch me? > > No it doesn’t , I stated twice why I voted for you . You are trying to divert attention from the actual reason for my vote to a bogus reason. You even acknowledge that you saw my reason with your ‘wishful thinking’ response . > This just indicates you are feeling more than a little guilty over the snuggles and are trying to deflect. –Again, not my motivations. (144) Quote: Originally Posted by Suburban Plankton So, Prof…you’ve done quite a bit of talking, and a fair amount of analysis…do you think you might be placing a vote of your own any time soon? No, not until Wednesday. I don’t see anyone who strikes me as scum, and I’m not into revenge votes. On Wednesday I’ll vote among the lurkers unless I need to cast a cover-my-ass vote. –If I’d any idea being patient and contemplative would have netted me another two votes, I’d have voted then. …and the next couple of pages go on and on and on in the same vein, with people looking at my posts through jaundiced eyes and seeing motivations that simply aren’t there. I see no point in detailing each and every post here, as it’s pretty long as it is. Let me sum up: I’m still Town. Don’t lynch me Friday. Sario is either scum, or doesn’t learn from past games. ---
**Author:** ![HookerChemical](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/278dde/32.png) [@HookerChemical](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HookerChemical)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2015, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/227 "2015-10-28T17:51:50Z")
As I alluded to, Biotop’s post is a good place to start. > [@Biotop](#): > > My idea early on was to try and give each player a starting score of 71 based on my level of trust at the beginning of the game, and then to begin adding or subtracting points based on postings and the general development of the game. **Note: my 71% is based on the notion of four Scum. I suppose there could be three or five. But, four seems right —so that is my chosen base. I don’t think it really matters too much to the overall point assessing scheme** My way of thinking isn’t too different. Assume four scum, so there’s a 29% chance of picking scum randomly. (I know I’m town. You don’t, but vanilla town and non-masons can make the same assumption.) Given that there will be a lynch, I need to be more than 29% confident it’s scum. If we have a scenario like the Prof P/Dead Cat scenario where I think one is scum but am not sure which is which, I’m still comfortable picking blindly given no inkling of which is which. I’m doing a lot of quote slicing, so please forgive any errors. > [@Biotop](#): > > Feel Good About So Far > **Astral Rejection** +3 : Good solid commentary. Seems pro-town. No disagreement here. Post 80 is a solid analysis, backing up some of that Biotop says about experienced players. Post 86 adds context to Prof P’s comments that is consistent with my impression. > [@Biotop](#): > > **HookerChemical** +2: Strong commentary and genuinely seems to be searching for wolves. I’m comfortable with this analysis. I have it on good authority he’s town, but I get that you can’t be as certain. > [@Biotop](#): > > **DeadCat** +2: It’s not so much that I agree or disagree with **DC** ’s comments about **Prof. Pepperwinkle** (though in some ways I do agree), but it’s the vehemence with which s/he is posting that strikes me. I don’t understand how anyone can be so very sure of anything at this point of the game. That said, I cannot see a wolf storming into the battle with such reckless certainty: (“I am literally prepared to die on that hill” --post #153) Why would a wolf act so sure on day 1? What could s/he gain in Town Cred? I can understand an opinionated reckless town player…but not a Scum one. If we lynch **Prof. Pepperwinkle** and he is town, then a lot of negative attention will turn **DC** ’s way. Wouldn’t a wolf be more likely to point tentatively as opposed to being so visibly in a position to be shown wrong? And if **PP** is Town, **DeadCat** WOULD eventually be shown wrong. Of course the irony is that I AM giving **DC** town cred for this attitude, because I think the tactic might be too precariious for newbie Scum. **UNVOTE DEAD CAT** Looking at my limited experience, I already have examples of townies proclaiming they’d die on a hill calling out the name of another player as scum, so I’m comfortable not taking that as a scum indicator. I’m dialing back my suspicions of Dead Cat a bit after more rereading and commentary. I’ve already pointed out Post 77, which is some good info for the newbie Octarine. > [@Biotop](#): > > **Octarine** : +1: I find myself liking **Octarine** ’s few posts. I get a good Town feel. Don’t know what else to say. Read them yourself and see if you don’t agree. Post 69 about townies posting less is wrong but not really scummy. The edit is also hinky, but I can chalk it up as a newbie etiquette mistake. Owning up to the error in Post 83 is the right thing to do. Learning is part of the game. I’m getting the same weak townie vibes. I’ll add **Biotop**. I’m getting good townie vibes. He offers a solid rebuttal to Tomba’s bad idea in Post 48 and explains how that analysis will change as the game goes on. (Starting with lynch the experienced players is a bad idea, but if they’re lingering around we should ask why scum aren’t killing them. While I disagree that we throw out all context of the two most recent games (mostly because they’re all I have to go on), Post 116 is solidly townie in its cautions against relying on those games too much. > [@Biotop](#): > > **TexCat** Even: She voted for me for a decent reason albeit a misguided one. I disagree with her on whether spotty tells are a better reason than “lynch the lurker” for a vote (post #62), but posts like #202 are insightful. My gut tells me she is too experienced a player to be against LTL and then to not post very much if Scum. Post 50 is a conversation starter and nothing to hold against a player. I’m marking Post 62 to come back to after we’ve hit a couple scum. The comments about experienced players not being killed by mid/late game needs to be considered, but the question needs to be asked. I also appreciate the attempts to draw commentary out of players (e.g. post 74). I’m putting **TexCat** in the weak town file for now. > [@Biotop](#): > > **Suburban Plankton** Even: Not enough information to really go in any direction yet. The breadcrumbing discussion at Post #127 did catch my interest. I’m thin on substance to analyze here. No scummy vibes or anything, but the #2 lurker for when we get to a lynch the lurker scenario. > [@Biotop](#): > > **Dante G** Even: I don’t know what to make of the whole “did I vote for **WF Tomba**?” thing. Slightly scummy I guess, but nothing to cost a point yet. What we’ve got here is a failure to communicate. I think the “Dante’s vote” discussion is all fallout from failure to clearly define what the subject being discussed. Dante reads commentary about a bad vote and assumes he’s the implied subject, which leads to him assuming he actually cast the vote in question. The reading comprehension fail amuses me and Astral gets his new sig, but isn’t pinging my scumdar. I don’t get the suspicions of Mahaloth, but I don’t see it as scummy either. I wish there were more meat than the “Dante’s vote” incident to work with. > [@Biotop](#): > > **Mahaloth** Even: I don’t particularly like his reason for voting for me in post #124 and then turning right around and sort of agreeing with what I was arguing about in Post #192. That said, I think he really loves this game and I like the \*Improve Mafia \*thread he references in Post #108. That link is a helpful read. Of course caring about the game in no way relates to whether he is Town or Scum. Not enough data. Slightest scum lean but no point deducted. ## I think Post 124 is moderately townie. While playstyle can change game to game (we’ll get to this in Prof P), I’ll be considering it. I need to read the Improve Mafia thread. I don’t get the suspicion of Biotop, but I’m not filing it as scummy either. And I’m going to take a break here. I’ll follow up with the rest later. It looks like Prof P has put up some light reading material as well. Yes, I’m leaving it unvoted. I’m not putting it on Prof P for two reasons: it’s feeling more and more like a town on town screwup, and he’s a dead man anyway. (I haven’t read his Post 226, which may change that analysis.) ---
**Author:** ![Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/prof.pepperwinkle/32/13627_2.png) [@Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Prof.Pepperwinkle)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2015, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/228 "2015-10-28T17:53:11Z")
Looking at our Mod’s tally in Post 212, I have to ask: Astral, didn’t you vote for Dead Cat, or am I wrong yet again? ---
**Author:** ![WF\_Tomba](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/d9b06d/32.png) [@WF\_Tomba](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WF_Tomba)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2015, 5:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/229 "2015-10-28T17:55:00Z")
> [@Astral\_Rejection](#): > > Town can always voluntarily choose not to lynch anyone on D1 if we collectively decide we don’t want one. It’s easy, and perfectly within the rules: everybody just needs to agree not to vote for anybody else. Theoretically, if we tried that on subsequent Days, what would happen? It would be an all-way tie at zero, so would one player be lynched at random? ---
**Author:** ![Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/prof.pepperwinkle/32/13627_2.png) [@Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Prof.Pepperwinkle)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2015, 5:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/230 "2015-10-28T17:55:53Z")
Oh, and as far as investigating finding evidence for scum on Day 1 or 2 (or even later)? Dante G, Plumpudding and TexCat have all been found guilty on such evidence, only to be proved to be Town later. It’s a chimera. ---
**Author:** ![HookerChemical](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/278dde/32.png) [@HookerChemical](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HookerChemical)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2015, 5:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/231 "2015-10-28T17:58:23Z")
> [@HookerChemical](#): > > ## My way of thinking isn’t too different. Assume four scum, so there’s a 29% chance of picking scum randomly. (I know I’m town. You don’t, but vanilla town and non-masons can make the same assumption.) Given that there will be a lynch, I need to be more than 29% confident it’s scum. If we have a scenario like the Prof P/Dead Cat scenario where I think one is scum but am not sure which is which, I’m still comfortable picking blindly given no inkling of which is which. > > And I’m going to take a break here. I’ll follow up with the rest later. It looks like Prof P has put up some light reading material as well. Yes, I’m leaving it unvoted. I’m not putting it on Prof P for two reasons: it’s feeling more and more like a town on town screwup, and he’s a dead man anyway. (I haven’t read his Post 226, which may change that analysis.) Obviously my opinion changed over the course of writing this. Prof P’s Post 226 has me leaning more to town on town fighting. ---
**Author:** ![Dante\_G](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/977dab/32.png) [@Dante\_G](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dante_G)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2015, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/232 "2015-10-28T18:11:26Z")
One thing I’ve noticed with some players is not necessarily the quantity of their posts as much as the quality. Prof. P, Hooker, Astral, Dead Cat, Biotop and Texcat have all had 1 or more posts that are substantial and full of quotes from other players as well as their own detailed analysis of those posts. Now, to me, that seems like a very Town thing to do. It may or may not be these players usual styles, as I am not sure since I am new to this board. My point is that if a player is Scum, it just seems like a lot of work to post these kind of posts so early in the game. I know Scum wants to appear Town and look all innocent, but still, I don’t see why they’d go through sooo much trouble. Maybe its because I never really post that way myself that I feel like it is a lot of work. Could be wrong, Lord knows I’ve been wrong before. ---
**Author:** ![HookerChemical](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/278dde/32.png) [@HookerChemical](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HookerChemical)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2015, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/233 "2015-10-28T18:37:42Z")
> [@Dante\_G](#): > > One thing I’ve noticed with some players is not necessarily the quantity of their posts as much as the quality. > > Prof. P, Hooker, Astral, Dead Cat, Biotop and Texcat have all had 1 or more posts that are substantial and full of quotes from other players as well as their own detailed analysis of those posts. Now, to me, that seems like a very Town thing to do. It may or may not be these players usual styles, as I am not sure since I am new to this board. > > My point is that if a player is Scum, it just seems like a lot of work to post these kind of posts so early in the game. I know Scum wants to appear Town and look all innocent, but still, I don’t see why they’d go through sooo much trouble. > > Maybe its because I never really post that way myself that I feel like it is a lot of work. Could be wrong, Lord knows I’ve been wrong before. I think it boils down to a player’s style. If they’ve established themselves as the type of townie who makes long and quote-full posts, it’s hard to move away from that without being called out on it. I don’t think it’s a strong tell, especially for posters who have a record of it. For posters without much of a record (in this case, limited to Dead Cat), I think it’s a stronger tell, but still to be taken with some doubt. (Please see Astral in the game you ran for scum posting a lot or meaty material.) (I’m not sure where I fall in that spectrum, given my one game and my own disappointment that I didn’t post more than I did.) That said, it’s townie to get things on the record, and put suspicions in the public domain in case you’re killed and flip town. ---
**Author:** ![Dead\_Cat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9fc29f/32.png) [@Dead\_Cat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dead_Cat)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2015, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/234 "2015-10-28T18:38:22Z")
In case I’m killed tonight or tomorrow (in game days), I thought I’d just put on record my thoughts about other players so far. > [@IRConfused](#): > > By the way, I tend to not post as much on the weekends due to projects/duties assigned by the BOSS (wife.) I go to work to relax. You haven’t posted a whole lot since then despite the working week being well underway, so if I hadn’t already made up my mind I’d definitely have you high up my lynch list for lurking. > [@IRConfused](#): > > The question I have is why is **Dead Cat** already defending **Sario**? Seems a bit Scummy since we haven’t really got much to go on yet. As has been mentioned by others, this seems a bit scummy to me - deflecting attention away from yourself on to me. > [@WF\_Tomba](#): > > I see you’ve already started casually laying the groundwork for a bogus case against me. First you repeatedly praise players for casting suspicion on me and voting for me, then you shoot down a theory that happens to imply that I’m Town. All without casting a vote for me yourself. Very clever. A dangerous player indeed! > > **Vote Astral Rejection** This also seems like deflecting attention away from you on to someone else on very little basis, possible scummy move? > [@Dante\_G](#): > > To Sub. Plankton - You are right I did not post a vote. I had cast suspicion on Tomba back on post #52, but I neglected to actually vote. That was my mistake. > > As more posts have come along, however, I have a few other ideas to toss out there. Biotops post rant about voting based off of past play styles does not read as Scummy to me. The fact that Mahaloth has all sorts of suspicions regarding it and is in turn voting for Biotop, leads me to see Mahaloth as Scum pretending to jump at a player whoM he “believes” to have Scum’s best interest. > > **VOTE MAHALOTH** This post gets a town lean from me as I share the suspicion. > [@Octarine](#): > > Stuff has happened, but without concrete events (aka kills/lynches) it’s all too easy to overthink yourself into a hole. I wasn’t posting because I wasn’t sure I was right - but seeing as “not being sure” is one of the core tenants of Mafia . . . > > Previously I was leaning towards either the **Prof** or **IRConfused**. The \*\*Prof \*\*mainly due to jumping to Lynch the Lurker (a valid tactic) VERY early in the game, and \*\*IRConfused \*\*due to low post count (not that I can talk), the **Sario** throwaway vote, and general gut feeling. > > **Suburban Plankton** ’s comment about the cheese jokes being a possible tell - trying too hard to seem casual - struck me as discerning, putting **snfaulkner** and **Precambrian** into the mix. Still, for whatever reason my gut is telling me to go for **IRConfused**. So, tentatively . . . > > \*\*Vote IRConfused. \*\* Likewise, this leans town to me. > [@WF\_Tomba](#): > > I just saw there was a new post by **Johnny Bravo** in the Thread Games forum, and clicked on it thinking it was in this thread. Then I realized it was in the Forbidden Thread! I clicked back immediately, and didn’t see anything of note. He was just remarking on how he enjoys being the game moderator. Town lean - it seems an odd thing for a wolf to admit to, somehow, and unlikely a wolf would invent the whole thing to make them seem town. > [@Mahaloth](#): > > I’m hardly Prof. P’s advocate, but I don’t get the scummy vibes at all. Your first clause is slightly denied by the second, gives me a scum lean on you, particularly if the Prof. is scum. Remember this post was made before there was a clear majority voting for the Prof. > [@Sario](#): > > I have read the last two pages of posts about 4 times now and nothing is sticking. :smack: > > I’ll go read though again and hope that I can figure out what’s going on. Content-free - trying to look like not lurking, but actually lurking? > [@Prof.Pepperwinkle](#): > > (120) Sario > > –Oh, look, momentum as a reason. Join The Bandwagon is a scum tell, right? > [snip] > Sario is either scum, or doesn’t learn from past games. Yeah, maybe. I’m getting scum vibes off Sario as well right now, as above. On the other hand, if you are scum, then this would be a strange vote. We shall see. > [@Prof.Pepperwinkle](#): > > Looking at our Mod’s tally in Post 212, I have to ask: Astral, didn’t you vote for Dead Cat, or am I wrong yet again? He did vote for me initially, but I think he unvoted me in post 111. It looks like he is currently the only player not to actually cast a vote. ---
**Author:** ![Dead\_Cat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9fc29f/32.png) [@Dead\_Cat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dead_Cat)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2015, 6:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/235 "2015-10-28T18:41:20Z")
> [@Dead\_Cat](#): > > It looks like he is currently the only player not to actually cast a vote. I now see this (referring to Astral Rejection) is incorrect, I had missed HookerChemical’s recent unvote. ---
**Author:** ![HookerChemical](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/278dde/32.png) [@HookerChemical](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HookerChemical)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2015, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/236 "2015-10-28T19:02:03Z")
> [@Dead\_Cat](#): > > I now see this (referring to Astral Rejection) is incorrect, I had missed HookerChemical’s recent unvote. I’ll have one up next morning for sure. I’ve only been through the top (least scummy) portion of Biotop’s list, so I haven’t dug into the scummier section to see where my vote falls. My gut says **IRConfused** , but I still need to talk myself into it. I’ve said I’m moving more toward the idea that the Prof P lynch is a mis-lynch. However, I think we’ll get good information from it, so I’m at peace with it. ---
**Author:** ![snfaulkner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snfaulkner/32/433_2.png) [@snfaulkner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snfaulkner)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2015, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/237 "2015-10-28T19:32:11Z")
**Prof. Pep** , you’ve convinced me enough that my vote for you may be better spent somewhere else. **UNVOTE PROF PEPPERWINKLE** > [@Astral\_Rejection](#): > > > [@](#): > > > > Originally Posted by Sario View Post > > I have read the last two pages of posts about 4 times now and nothing is sticking. > > > > I’ll go read though again and hope that I can figure out what’s going on. > > Prof P, I’m still considering Sario, but throw this onto the pile of suspicious posts. I often see scum promise a future re-read, because it gets them off the hook (“look how townie I’m being, reading and re-reading!”) and they rarely have to follow through on it. This post in particular really caught my attention. I’ve noticed this too. It seems like the perfect way to attempt to not lurk while lurking. **VOTE SARIO** Mind you this is only a very slight feeling that could easily be over-ridden. Also note, this has NOTHING to do with his past game wolfscumsihnesseseses. ---
**Author:** ![Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/prof.pepperwinkle/32/13627_2.png) [@Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Prof.Pepperwinkle)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2015, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/238 "2015-10-28T19:40:22Z")
Yay! ---
**Author:** ![snfaulkner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snfaulkner/32/433_2.png) [@snfaulkner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snfaulkner)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2015, 7:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/239 "2015-10-28T19:59:13Z")
> [@Prof.Pepperwinkle](#): > > Yay! Don’t get overly yay’ed yet. I have to admit that I am very confused and paranoid and stumbling around in the dark for any evidence that even remotely seems wolf-like. I say we hang all the coyotes, foxes, hounds, puppies on this island as well…just to be sure. ---
**Author:** ![snfaulkner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snfaulkner/32/433_2.png) [@snfaulkner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snfaulkner)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2015, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/240 "2015-10-28T20:02:04Z")
> [@snfaulkner](#): > > Don’t get overly yay’ed yet. I have to admit that I am very confused and paranoid and stumbling around in the dark for any evidence that even remotely seems wolf-like. I say we hang all the coyotes, foxes, hounds, puppies on this island as well…just to be sure. And NOW I’m waiting for people to take this comment I made to indicate over-compesation as a scum tell…Man, my foot tastes gross. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585.md?page=11) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585.md?page=13)