# Trouble in Paradise (Mafia Game Thread) **URL:** \ **Category:** Thread Games\ **Created:** [October 23, 2015, 10:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585 "2015-10-23T22:52:29Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 22
**Author:** ![WF\_Tomba](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/d9b06d/32.png) [@WF\_Tomba](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WF_Tomba)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2015, 11:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/421 "2015-11-04T23:51:55Z")
> [@Dante\_G](#): > > What do you mean? We’ll still have the next Day phase and probably more. So we’ll still have chances. That’s a funny response for someone who has a vote on me. Did you forget that you’re pretending to think I’m a wolf? :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![Dante\_G](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/977dab/32.png) [@Dante\_G](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dante_G)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2015, 12:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/422 "2015-11-05T00:25:56Z")
No pretending. I may turn out to be wrong, like the others that think you are Wolf, but my point still stands. ---
**Author:** ![WF\_Tomba](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/d9b06d/32.png) [@WF\_Tomba](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WF_Tomba)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2015, 12:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/423 "2015-11-05T00:29:02Z")
Then I’m not getting it. I said you would miss _a_ chance to hang a wolf, not miss your only chance. Of course there will be other chances. That doesn’t contradict what I said. ---
**Author:** ![Dante\_G](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/977dab/32.png) [@Dante\_G](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dante_G)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2015, 1:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/424 "2015-11-05T01:05:15Z")
Point taken. I retract my comment. ---
**Author:** ![snfaulkner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snfaulkner/32/433_2.png) [@snfaulkner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snfaulkner)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2015, 1:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/425 "2015-11-05T01:36:18Z")
> [@Dead\_Cat](#): > > Wow, I had not idea how _hard_ this game is - I’m putting way more time in to it than I thought I would. Which is great, of course, because it means I’m having a lot of fun with it. More than once now I’ve typed up a post and on review realised I have leaned both scum and town on the same player in that post! I agree with this x10! I’m burning up a lot of my boring free time at work with this game in a paranoid frenzy. Makes me almost excited to come in to work. Almost. > [@](#): > > > [@](#): > > > > :Originally Posted by snfaulkner View Post > > But NOW I’m thinking, this means you’d hop on a bandwagon and lynch anyone for no good reason other than to save your own skin…Now THAT smells VERY wolfie! > > > > UNVOTE PRECAMBRIAN > > > > VOTE PROF PEPPERWINKLE! > > > > Please feel free to dissuade me. I thought I smelt a whiff of wolf and this may be a panic vote. > > “Please feel free to dissuade me” - because I know you’re my team-mate and I want a good reason to change my vote later? I think these posts could very easily be from a wolf trying to look town. It is certainly because this is the first Day of my first game and also my first real vote and I was (am) very uncertain about a great many things. > [@](#): > > > [@](#): > > > > Originally Posted by snfaulkner View Post > > Prof. Pep, you’ve convinced me enough that my vote for you may be better spent somewhere else. > > > > UNVOTE PROF PEPPERWINKLE > > > > I’ve noticed this too. It seems like the perfect way to attempt to not lurk while lurking. > > > > VOTE SARIO > > > > Mind you this is only a very slight feeling that could easily be over-ridden. Also note, this has NOTHING to do with his past game wolfscumsihnesseseses. > > And lo and behold, the vote on the Prof disappears! He ( **The Prof** ) made some good arguments (or so they seemed at the time), and I was (am) certainly a malleable mush of paranoid confusion. He took the time to make his case, as i had seen he had done in previous games (that I did not participate in) and I fell for the Bamboozel hook, line, and sinker. Props to him on that. I hope I don’t fall for such things again. Or at least as easily. You fell for The Bamboozeling just as I did. If not harder than I did, since you claimed early on you would die on the hill before unvoting **The Prof**. Plus at that point others were making good points about **Sario** who was nowhere to be seen to defend himself. > [@](#): > > Making excuses for lurking. > [@](#): > > Another excuse for lurking. Not sure I _was_ lurking. Just letting everyone (particularly **Sario** ) know that if there was some important things i should know before EOD they had better hurry up. I will make the same disclaimers before EOD toDay too, since I again will be probably be hungover and in bed when it happens. ---
**Author:** ![Suburban\_Plankton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suburban_plankton/32/219_2.png) [@Suburban\_Plankton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Suburban_Plankton)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2015, 5:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/426 "2015-11-05T05:32:05Z")
> [@Biotop](#): > > It is taking much more time to put together my analysis than I originally thought it would. I will post what I have tomorrow night after work – with a vote. > [@Dead\_Cat](#): > > Wow, I had not idea how _hard_ this game is - I’m putting way more time in to it than I thought I would. > [@snfaulkner](#): > > I agree with this x10! I’m burning up a lot of my boring free time at work with this game in a paranoid frenzy. There’s something offputting about these posts…but I can’t quite put my finger on it. I think these are all ‘new’ players, so that may explain the sentiments…I think it’s the repetition that’s bothering me. The back-and-forth between **WF Tomba** and **Dante G** in Posts 419-424 strikes me as either Town-on-Town (2 players completely missing what the other is trying to say) or Scum-on-Scum (2 players deliberately inventing conflict to try to put distance between themselves). At the moment my money it on Scum v. Scum (which is much more a comment on WFT than on Dante). ---
**Author:** ![Biotop](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biotop/32/321_2.png) [@Biotop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biotop)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2015, 6:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/427 "2015-11-05T06:46:58Z")
> [@Mahaloth](#): > > We do? Now, I can’t wait to see what you think we have. Okay, **Mahaloth**. How’s this: (Sorry for the “wall of text” post, but I would rather get this out tonight than wait for tomorrow to try and pretty it up.) Because I am very suspicious about how the votes went the first day, I am going to group our players into 3 sets. Those who voted for **Sario** , those who voted for **Professor Pepperwinkle** , and those who voted for neither. I first want to say that I sympathize with why some players voted for **Sario**. I really considered it myself. It was an understandable lynch that **Sario** himself could have easily prevented, but did not. However, I also think it is very very likely that the switch from\*\* Prof. Pepperwinkle **(Scum) to** Sario\*\* (Town) was at least somewhat aided by wolves. I will be using **HookerChemical** ’s voting record analysis from Post #379, and trying to list each player by the order in which he/she voted. I have included myself and the dead players to help with the chronology. Players Who Voted for **Sario** : \ ***IRConfused** : Voted for **Sario** first in Post #55 for a specious reason (had been Scum before). **IRC** never took his vote off of **Sario** , despite voicing deep misgivings about **Prof. Pepperwinkle** in his ( **IRC** ’s) player summary post #265. In Post #270, he says he gets a stronger Scum read off **Sario** than **Professor Pepperwinkle** , but reads them both as Scum. He further explains this in Post #282 and says he will go after **Prof. P.** next. I am not sure what to make of this. One certainly cannot argue that \*\*IRConfused \*\*jumped on an opportunistic bandwagon —except in going from a “random” (his description) vote to feeling **Sario** to be “strongest Scum candidate”. Slightly Scummy read. \ ***Prof. Pepperwinkle** : Voted for **Sario** in Post #191, supposedly as a retaliation after saying he wouldn’t retailiate. _ **Snfaulkner** : Voted for **Prof. Pepperwinkle** in Post #170, then changes his mind and switched to **Sario** in Post #237. He switches, he says, because of **Astral** ’s post about how **Sario** has read and reread through the posts with “nothing sticking” and because **Prof. Pepperwinkle** “convinced me enough.” This came about at the time_\* Prof. P\*\* had the most votes and seemed the near certain lynch. I give **Snfaulkne** r points for having voted for the Scum **Pepperwinkle** early, but the switch was most ill-timed. Read: Moderate Scummy . Note: Currently votes for **WFTomba**. \ ***Astral** : He voted for **Sario** in post #245. As **HookerChemica** l points out, this doesn’t help the whole “mis-lynch was engineered by wolves” theory. But, of course, I don’t think anyone believes that all, or even probably most, **Sario** posters are Scum. This just means we have at least one misguided townie confirmed, which helps narrow down the field in looking for the likely Scum involved. _ **DeadCat** : We all know_\* DeadCat\*\* vowed to die on the **Prof. Pepperwinkle** hill in Post #153, but then switched and voted for \*\*Sario **in Post #284. DeadCat also said in Post #153 that a Prof. Pepperwinkle Scum flip would “make me virtually confirmed town.” And DeadCat \*\* later says these strong suspicions on Prof. P** were “vindicated” (#391) by **PP** ’s eventual Scum turn. This would read to me like a wolf trying to show how his initial voting of **Prof. Pepperwinkle** proved him town— if it were not for the rest of **DeadCat** ’s postings, which seem over and over to be very Pro-town. I think **DeadCa** t’s timing on the vote switch was probably a break the wolves were looking for, and not the result of actual Scum mischief by **DeadCat**. I cannot be completely sure, but I find myself believing in **DeadCat**. Reading: Moderately Pro-Town. \ ***WFTomba** : Voted for **Sario** in post #288. See Below for further comments… \ ***HookerChemical** : I was very Pro- **HookerChemical early on, but right now I don’t know what to think. HookerChemical never got on the Prof. Pepperwinkle train and kept dismissing the suspicions as just casual PP friendliness and other game carryover. HC voted for Sario in Post #297, making the odds increasingly in favor of a Sario** lynch. I have stated before that I quite understand that the case against **Sario** was decent and obviously there were Town players voting for **Sario**. \*\*Astral \*\*was one of them. However, the case against **PP** seems to me to have been at least equally as substantial, but **HookerChemical** would not acknowledge it. Of course, the same can be said of **Astral**. Like **DeadCat** , I get a Pro-town read from most of **HookerChemical** ’s other postings. But again I am not sure. Reading: Neutral. \ ***Mahaloth** : Originally voted for me in Post #303, but then all but certainly ended any doubt about who was going to be lynched by voting for **Sario** in Post #303. I suppose I can sort of understand the gut vote on me for my attitude, though to then to say the argument that the case against **Prof P.** was “zippo” (Post #303) is curious. I guess I would like to hear more about why some players ( **Hooker, Mahaloth** ) so easily dismissed the case against **Prof. P**., which in hindsight, seems strong —and of course we now know that case against \*\*PP \*\* turned out to be right. **Mahaloth** ’s vote for **Sario** came just after \*\*Astral \*\*asked players who had not weighed in on the **Prof. P** / **Sario** debate to come pick a side (post #301). None of the others ( **Octarine** , **Suburban Plankton** , **Dante G**.) changed their votes. **Sario** was probably going to be lynched anyway at this point, so I sort of wonder _if_ **Mahaloth** is a wolf, then why did he wait to jump on that bandwagon until the result of a **Sario** lynch seemed already likely? Read: Neutral to slightly Scummy. Players Who Voted for **Prof. Pepperwinkle** : _ **Sario** : Post #38—He voted early for_\* PP\*\* and kept his vote there. Would that he have defended himself. Water under the bridge now. \*\* _Precambrianmollusc_\*: Made a good very early case and vote against **Prof P.** (Post #76) and never changed his vote. I suppose it is possible that **Precambrianmollusc** is Scum and **PCM** made this post never thinking it would take off like it did. Still, \*\*PCM \*\*must be given credit for getting the case against **PP** rolling. While I wish there were more postings, I give **Precambrianmollusc** Town cred. Read: Likely Town. \ ***Biotop** : I voted for **Prof. Pepperwinkle** in Post #211. I’m Town, but I’ll leave it for others to judge me. _ **TexCat** : Unvoted me and voted for **Professor Pepperwinkle** in Post #218. She comes back at near Day’s end says she was keeping her vote on_\* Prof.\*\* **Pepperwinkle** in Post #312 (with 22 minutes left in the Day, just before **Sario** got around to posting a defense) . I wish experienced player **Texcat** was posting more, but at this point she has earned more town cred from me for voting for **Prof. Pepperwinkle** and then not switching to **Sario** when a wolf would surely have been tempted to do so. Read: Pro-Town. \ ***Players Who voted for Neither:** \ ***Dante G**. : Voted for **Mahaloth** in Post #129 based mostly on **Mahaloth** ’s vote against me. Has a disagreement with **Astral** over how he ( **Dante** ) could have forgotten he had not voted. Later **Dante** pushes for an early end to Day as the long game is “arduous.” In Post #232 **Dante G** , says that long analytical postings seem “a lot of work” and those that do it are probably town. I was trying to find where **Dante G.** posted an opinion on **Sario** / **PP** and I came across post #271, which slipped past me at the time. None of us commented on this post as far as I can tell, but it sure raises my ire right now. The only time Dante G weighs in on the **Professor Pepperwinkle** / **Sario** vote is in this post #271, where he says it is “better for myself” not to voice an opinion one way or the other and risk looking bad if wrong. \* “Better for myself”\*??? WTF. **Dante,** I don’t know whether you are Scum or not, but I think you should try and look out for what is better for Town rather than worrying so much about what is better for you. Why shouldn’t players in a game put in a lot of work? In order to win, we must analyze, take chances and ultimately risk an opinion. If we are wrong then we get up and try again. If we get lynched for our mistakes then at least the town can reread and know that this now-confirmed Townie’s posts were honest analysis. You know who watches out for themselves? Wolves. Read: Scum Lean. \ ***Suburban Plankton** : Voted **Snfaulkner** in post #127 for too much cheese talk. I agree with him on that, though not enough for a vote. **SP** missed much of the latter part of Day 1 due to personal reasons. **SP** has promised to be back later with “any new revelations” in Post #417. I will wait for those revelations before making any lurker judgement . No Read. \ ***Octarine** : Voted for \*\*IRConfused \*\*with Post #160. I have given **Octarine** the benefit of the doubt with the low post count. Early posts by \*\*Octarine \*\*ring Town to me, and he does note a weak reason why **Sario** might not be Scum in post #263. (I personally don’t think anyone would reasonably try to pass off a gambler’s fallacy in this game as something to be believed). I hope **Octarine** posts more. If I hadn’t promised not to talk about previous games, I might say that **Octarine** reminds me of **Cygnus42**. Slight Town Read. * * * \*And now **WF Tomba** : Post#11: \*\*Professor P \*\*makes his early “Mason” post regarding me and **WF** **Tomba**. I didn’t think much of it at the time, but I now notice that this post was directed at me and not both of us. Why just address me and not **Tomba**? I may be making too much of this, but this strikes me as odd if he is trying to con both of us. Post #40: Makes the “dangerous players” who may be Scum” post that raises eyebrows. He names **Astral** and **Mahaloth** by name. Post #45: \*\*HookerChemical \*\* votes for **WFTomba** , which earns no response whatsoever from **WFTomba**. Post #94: Votes for **Astral** for laying a case against him. Several players respond that this does not seem like a fair accusation. \*\*WFTomba \*\*maintains this suspicion on \*\*Astral \*\*for much of the first Day despite getting no support from others for his belief. **HookerChemical** , who has the actual vote on **WFTomba** at this time, receives…nothing. Post #110: This post occurred during the whole “did **Dante G.** vote for anyone else before or not” tussle. **Dante** thought he had voted for **WFTomba** , **Astral** noted he had not, and there was confusion. **WFTomba** asks if forgetting whether one has made a vote is Scummy behavior. This whole set of posts surrounding the phantom vote is weird to me. Post #122: **HookerChemical** unvotes **WFTomba i** n favor of **DeadCat**. Post#159: **WFT** argues that **Astral** might be trying to undermine his (and my) town cred if\*\* Prof. Pepperwinkle\*\* is guilty of “Perfect Information Syndrome. (He is referring to the mason post). This is a confusing discussion involving **PCM** and I don’t think I will try and summarize it here. Suffice to say now that we know \*\*Astral \*\*was Town, thus the suspicion was wrong. Whether the suspicion was justified at the time seems iffy at best to me. Post #162: **WF** voices suspicion for the first time of the **Professor**. Included in this post are more suspicions of **Astral** and of \*\*Dante G. \*\*Post #220: **TexCat has just voted for Prof. Pepperwinkle, putting him at his highest vote total and making the lynch of PP likely. The next player to post, 1 hour later, is WFTomba** , who starts a discussion about the probability of first Day mis-lynches. Post #230 **Professor Pepperwinkle** chimes in with a short post just after his long defensive post to call first Day post information a “chimera.” Post #241: Jokes with **SnFaulkner**. Post #248: Maybe \*\*Astral \*\*and \*\*PP \*\*are both wolves. Post #254, #259: Responds to **Astral** that if he was not suspicious of **Astral** , he might vote for **Sario** because of lurking. Worries about tie game. Post#278: Makes a helpful back and forth posting showing the history of the **PP** / **Sario** debate. Post: 288: Finally says **DeadCat** has convinced him to vote for **Sario**. _ **Sario** is lynched._ Post #332: **Suburban Plankton** has just come back after a long absence and asked for a recap over why **Sario** was lynched. \*\*WFTomba \*\*first responds with this 5-word post: “It was mostly for lurking.” Post #393: After declaring that **DeadCat** gives off a strong Town vibe, he then likens early “n00b” **DeadCat** posts to a “Hissing Kitten”, both “innocent” and adorable.” But later he thinks that his thoughts line up with **DeadCat**. \*\*My read: \*\* I don’t understand the case against \*\*Astral \*\*that occupied much of **WFTomba** ’s first day. He shows no concern for **HookerChemical,** who actually placed a vote for him. While he voices minor suspicions of **PP** , **WFTomba** ends up voting for **Sario** the first day at a critical time. When **PP** was getting his most votes, **WFTomba** brings up first day mis-lynches. When asked about how the mis-lynch (that he helped with his vote) occurred, **WFTomba can only summarize the case as “mostly for lurkiing.” And I don’t think DeadCat has played this game like an innocent newbie at all. DeadCat has more than held up his load. Vote WFTomba I think we have a very good chance of nailing multiple wolves over what occurred the first Day with Prof. Pepperwinkle and the wolf lynch that never was. Just in case I am not around after toDay, here are a few more wild-ass guesses: WFTomba and Snfaulkner are both voting for each other. To me it is more than likely that one or the other is Scum, and quite possible both are. Perhaps somebody has to “go down” for the Sario wolf-to-town mislynch. I think this is just the sort of situation a wolf might accuse another wolf. The wolf not lynched gets Town cred. The remaining wolf, if there are four, could be DanteG. I tried reading the whole thread tonight with the theory of all these players as wolves and it did not seem impossible. Of course it is likely I have some and maybe even most of the wolves wrong, but this is where my thought are now. IRConfused **, \*\*HookerChemical \*\*, and possibly** Mahaloth** are some contenders for a wolves if the others don’t pan out. ---
**Author:** ![Biotop](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biotop/32/321_2.png) [@Biotop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biotop)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2015, 7:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/428 "2015-11-05T07:09:23Z")
> [@Suburban\_Plankton](#): > > There’s something offputting about these posts…but I can’t quite put my finger on it. I think these are all ‘new’ players, so that may explain the sentiments…I think it’s the repetition that’s bothering me. I can tell you, **Suburban Plankton** , that it is hard work making detailed analytical postings like the one I just did. I realize it is solely my choice in how I choose to play and try to and help the good guys win the game. However, I am at real work 9 hours a day at a busy grocery store and then come home and, after spending some time with my wife, I come up here to my office and try to make sense of what has been happening. In addition, this time I am actually accusing players and I want to make sure I do it fairly and accurately. It is now close to 2 in the morning and I have been working on that last long post both yesterday evening and tonight. I will be at work tomorrow early and do it all again. My next day off from work is not until Monday, so the load isn’t going to get any easier. And by next Monday it may be too late to post anything at all. I don’t want to make any factual errors, nor do I want to accuse anyone falsely based on my poor read. I tried to catch typos, errors in spelling and other mistakes. If I have misread or misquoted another poster, I take responsibility for that error and will try and correct it when pointed out. Now I am going to bed. Just please don’t give me s\*\*t about my saying that these long postings are laborious. I know this is just a game, but I like to win. I am just trying to do my best for Town on that score. ---
**Author:** ![WF\_Tomba](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/d9b06d/32.png) [@WF\_Tomba](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WF_Tomba)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2015, 1:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/429 "2015-11-05T13:04:31Z")
[QUOTE=Biotop] Post #332: Suburban Plankton has just come back after a long absence and asked for a recap over why Sario was lynched. WFTomba first responds with this 5-word post: “It was mostly for lurking.” [/QUOTE] Can you explain what you find suspicious about that post? To me, it still seems like an accurate summation of the case against **Sario**. ---
**Author:** ![WF\_Tomba](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/d9b06d/32.png) [@WF\_Tomba](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WF_Tomba)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2015, 1:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/430 "2015-11-05T13:25:07Z")
All right, I feel ready to post a summary of how I feel about various players. Likely Scum: **snfaulkner** for that vote switch **Suburban Plankton** and **Octarine** for how quickly they leapt on me toDay, and also for the general way they have been hiding in the shadows without attracting much attention. Neutral: **Dante G** – keeps saying things that seem strange to me and other players, but I think it’s just a matter of style **Mahaloth** **HookerChemical** **IRConfused** **Precambrianmollusc** Likely Town: **Dead Cat** **TexCat** **Biotop** ---
**Author:** ![WF\_Tomba](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/d9b06d/32.png) [@WF\_Tomba](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WF_Tomba)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2015, 1:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/431 "2015-11-05T13:39:15Z")
So. Who here thinks **Prof. Pepperwinkle** will still be the post count leader at the end of the Day? ---
**Author:** ![TexCat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/texcat/32/9041_2.png) [@TexCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TexCat)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2015, 3:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/432 "2015-11-05T15:11:20Z")
Biotop, It was good to read your thoughts. I was hoping you would continue the +/- 71 which I thought was a good idea. I, too, missed Dante’s 271 which worried about how a vote switch would look for him. Good find. ---
**Author:** ![TexCat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/texcat/32/9041_2.png) [@TexCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TexCat)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2015, 3:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/433 "2015-11-05T15:34:53Z")
\*\*vote WF Tomba \*\* Since Tomba seems to be a runaway lynch, I was considering another vote, but no one seems close to be as scummy as Tomba. ---
**Author:** ![WF\_Tomba](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/d9b06d/32.png) [@WF\_Tomba](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WF_Tomba)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2015, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/434 "2015-11-05T16:07:26Z")
I’m kind of going to enjoy saying “I told you so!” when I come up Town. ---
**Author:** ![HookerChemical](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/278dde/32.png) [@HookerChemical](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HookerChemical)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2015, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/435 "2015-11-05T18:23:07Z")
> [@Biotop](#): > > I guess I would like to hear more about why some players ( **Hooker, Mahaloth** ) so easily dismissed the case against **Prof. P**., which in hindsight, seems strong —and of course we now know that case against \*\*PP \*\* turned out to be right. Here’s my thought process on Prof. P: It seems that the case against Prof P was built on three things: the “mason trio” (Post 11) comment associating himself with Biotop and WF Tomba plus the (very premature) discussion of lynch the lurker (Post 10, alluded to in Post 51, and reiterated and reinforced in Post 66), and the “no lynch” discussion (Post 32). I interpreted the “mason trio” comment as friendly banter between him and Biotop (who shared masonhood with Prof P two games ago) and a reference to WF Tomba being the first person to name all three scum in the previous game. Also keep in mind that this is a post before everybody has checked in and the game officially started, so I didn’t give it much weight. Biotop has a pretty straight forward and reasonable reaction in Post 23. It amounts to “Sure, we had a good run, but I have no reason to trust you yet.” (Biotop, please correct me if you don’t think this is a fair interpretation.) I thought the “Scum!” reactions (PCM in Post 76, others later) to this post were oversold. Astral thought it oversold in his Post 81: > [@Astral\_Rejection](#): > > This _feels_ like an acceptable Day 1 lynch if you had stuck with the lynch the quiet/loud aspect, but I think you’re overselling it in this post. No lean for this, or maybe just the tiniest scum lean, just not on-board with your specific rationale for voting. (My original adjective was “overblown,” but Astral’s “oversold is much better. In retrospect, I think it’s fair to say that post shouldn’t give scum lean to PCM.) Please also keep in mind that at this time, there is virtually no substantial reason to vote for anybody. Cheese puns are flying around. My vote is changing with the wind, and some people still only have their “PM received” post to their count. In my mind, the reaction to the “mason trio” post was overblown. The “no lynch” discussion wasn’t much of a driver, but I want to include it because it led to the first vote on Prof P (Sario Post 38). The discussion seems to be a carryover from the previous game where the no-lynch was discussed and ultimately happened the first day. In that game, a no-lynch was much more likely as a majority of voters was required for any lynch. Sario framed his initial vote as jokey, but later changed it to serious in Post 150. Finally, there’s the discussion of lynch the lurker and Prof P pushing it fairly hard. I concede that I should have read more into this than I did. I didn’t pick up that he was floating it all the way back in Post 10, before people had even checked in. In retrospect, I see it as Prof P trying to set up the lynch he wants with little personal risk. If it’s a mis-lynch, “Oh well, there wasn’t any evidence,” and if it’s a hit “See! I got the scum and I’m a virtual town lock.” I try and not attribute complicate scum logic, but this doesn’t seem a complicated plot for a win/win scenario. It’s only the vigilante that has us all looking at it with clear eyes. Here’s a link to my Day One post discussion Dead Cat and Prof P: > [@HookerChemical](#): > > I took a look at DC and PP’s posts as promised, with this question in mind specifically. Here are some of the more combative or problematic. (“Combative” maybe not have been the best word): It shows where my thoughts were at the time. Since then, I’ve come around to a town lean on Dead Cat and not just because DC was so strongly against Prof P. The case against him got stronger as time passed. I moved from “WTF are you all getting at?” to “I see what you’re saying, but I have better candidates (IRConfused, Sario).” I thought there was a more robust case against Sario, so that’s where my vote went. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2015, 8:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/436 "2015-11-05T20:04:49Z")
> [@HookerChemical](#): > > The case against him got stronger as time passed. I moved from “WTF are you all getting at?” to “I see what you’re saying, but I have better candidates (IRConfused, Sario).” I thought there was a more robust case against Sario, so that’s where my vote went. I don’t believe you, even though I kind of felt some of that as well. I think Tomba is no better than chance, either. **Vote HookerChemical** ---
**Author:** ![HookerChemical](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/278dde/32.png) [@HookerChemical](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HookerChemical)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2015, 8:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/437 "2015-11-05T20:24:06Z")
> [@Mahaloth](#): > > I don’t believe you, even though I kind of felt some of that as well. > > I think Tomba is no better than chance, either. > > **Vote HookerChemical** I have to say, this was not the reaction I expected here. I half expected a “What he said” type post, but clearly that’s not the case. I’m curious why you dismiss the case against WF Tomba (primarily) and why you dismissed the case against Prof P if not for the reasons I dismissed it. ---
**Author:** ![Precambrianmollusc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/precambrianmollusc/32/63_2.png) [@Precambrianmollusc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Precambrianmollusc)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2015, 8:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/438 "2015-11-05T20:44:25Z")
Still here , still think DanteG is our best bet , more substantive stuff this evening ---
**Author:** ![Suburban\_Plankton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suburban_plankton/32/219_2.png) [@Suburban\_Plankton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Suburban_Plankton)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2015, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/439 "2015-11-05T21:08:41Z")
> [@Biotop](#): > > I can tell you, **Suburban Plankton** , that it is hard work making detailed analytical postings like the one I just did. I realize it is solely my choice in how I choose to play and try to and help the good guys win the game. However, I am at real work 9 hours a day at a busy grocery store and then come home and, after spending some time with my wife, I come up here to my office and try to make sense of what has been happening. In addition, this time I am actually accusing players and I want to make sure I do it fairly and accurately. It is now close to 2 in the morning and I have been working on that last long post both yesterday evening and tonight. I will be at work tomorrow early and do it all again. My next day off from work is not until Monday, so the load isn’t going to get any easier. And by next Monday it may be too late to post anything at all. > > I don’t want to make any factual errors, nor do I want to accuse anyone falsely based on my poor read. I tried to catch typos, errors in spelling and other mistakes. If I have misread or misquoted another poster, I take responsibility for that error and will try and correct it when pointed out. Now I am going to bed. > > Just please don’t give me s\*\*t about my saying that these long postings are laborious. I know this is just a game, but I like to win. I am just trying to do my best for Town on that score. I’m sorry if I struck a nerve. I have no problem with what you posted, or with any of the other posts I quoted. It was just the combination of the three posts in fairly quick succession, all starting off with essentially the same thought, that struck me as odd. And since yours was the first of the three, if there’s anything suspicious about them, it would apply to the other posts, not yours. I didn’t mean to be giving you shit…please accept my apology. ---
**Author:** ![HookerChemical](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/278dde/32.png) [@HookerChemical](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HookerChemical)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2015, 9:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/440 "2015-11-05T21:20:30Z")
> [@Biotop](#): > > Okay, **Mahaloth**. How’s this: > > (Sorry for the “wall of text” post, but I would rather get this out tonight than wait for tomorrow to try and pretty it up.) > > Because I am very suspicious about how the votes went the first day, I am going to group our players into 3 sets. Those who voted for **Sario** , those who voted for **Professor Pepperwinkle** , and those who voted for neither. I first want to say that I sympathize with why some players voted for **Sario**. I really considered it myself. It was an understandable lynch that **Sario** himself could have easily prevented, but did not. > > However, I also think it is very very likely that the switch from\*\* Prof. Pepperwinkle **(Scum) to** Sario\*\* (Town) was at least somewhat aided by wolves. > > I will be using **HookerChemical** ’s voting record analysis from Post #379, and trying to list each player by the order in which he/she voted. I have included myself and the dead players to help with the chronology. This kind of post is hard work. I’ll reiterate my appreciation of this kind of effort and piggyback where I have some to add or a differing view. > [@Biotop](#): > > Players Who Voted for **Sario** : > > \ ***IRConfused** : Voted for **Sario** first in Post #55 for a specious reason (had been Scum before). **IRC** never took his vote off of **Sario** , despite voicing deep misgivings about **Prof. Pepperwinkle** in his ( **IRC** ’s) player summary post #265. > In Post #270, he says he gets a stronger Scum read off **Sario** than **Professor Pepperwinkle** , but reads them both as Scum. He further explains this in Post #282 and says he will go after **Prof. P.** next. > I am not sure what to make of this. One certainly cannot argue that \*\*IRConfused \*\*jumped on an opportunistic bandwagon —except in going from a “random” (his description) vote to feeling **Sario** to be “strongest Scum candidate”. Slightly Scummy read. My read is moderate scummy. I was on the IRConfused wagon yesterday. The better case against WF Tomba is the reason I’m not on it again. > [@Biotop](#): > > _ **Snfaulkner** : Voted for **Prof. Pepperwinkle** in Post #170, then changes his mind and switched to **Sario** in Post #237. He switches, he says, because of **Astral** ’s post about how **Sario** has read and reread through the posts with “nothing sticking” and because **Prof. Pepperwinkle** “convinced me enough.” This came about at the time_\* Prof. P\*\* had the most votes and seemed the near certain lynch. I give **Snfaulkne** r points for having voted for the Scum **Pepperwinkle** early, but the switch was most ill-timed. Read: Moderate Scummy . Note: Currently votes for **WFTomba**. I wasn’t on the Prof P lynch train, but the dismissal in Post 237 is a bit glib. My read here puts him behind (less scummy than) IRConfused, and I interpret Biotop as having them in the other order. > [@Biotop](#): > > _ **DeadCat** : We all know_\* DeadCat\*\* vowed to die on the **Prof. Pepperwinkle** hill in Post #153, but then switched and voted for \*\*Sario **in Post #284. DeadCat also said in Post #153 that a Prof. Pepperwinkle Scum flip would “make me virtually confirmed town.” And DeadCat \*\* later says these strong suspicions on Prof. P** were “vindicated” (#391) by **PP** ’s eventual Scum turn. > This would read to me like a wolf trying to show how his initial voting of **Prof. Pepperwinkle** proved him town— if it were not for the rest of **DeadCat** ’s postings, which seem over and over to be very Pro-town. I think **DeadCa** t’s timing on the vote switch was probably a break the wolves were looking for, and not the result of actual Scum mischief by **DeadCat**. I cannot be completely sure, but I find myself believing in **DeadCat**. Reading: Moderately Pro-Town. I have the same moderate town read here. Virtually everything after my “here’s what’s combative” post (Post 196) has pushed the needle toward town. I unovted Dead Cat in Post 227 and continue to get a town read here. > [@Biotop](#): > > \ ***HookerChemical** : I was very Pro- **HookerChemical early on, but right now I don’t know what to think. HookerChemical never got on the Prof. Pepperwinkle train and kept dismissing the suspicions as just casual PP friendliness and other game carryover. HC voted for Sario in Post #297, making the odds increasingly in favor of a Sario** lynch. I have stated before that I quite understand that the case against **Sario** was decent and obviously there were Town players voting for **Sario**. \*\*Astral \*\*was one of them. However, the case against **PP** seems to me to have been at least equally as substantial, but **HookerChemical** would not acknowledge it. Of course, the same can be said of **Astral**. Like **DeadCat** , I get a Pro-town read from most of **HookerChemical** ’s other postings. But again I am not sure. Reading: Neutral. You’re right to call me out with the Sario voters. I missed the call. My (incorrect) reasons for backing the case against Sario were the excessive lurking, promises that weren’t followed up on (see Astral’s Post 245), extremely thin justification for the initial Prof P vote, and no defense of himself. Biotop, you put it well in Post 279: > [@Biotop](#): > > This leads me to **Sario**. I don’t know what he has going on in his life, but come on, dude. There is a movement underway to lynch you,\*\* Sario\*\*. Why are you not posting any kind of a response? I can’t understand it. If you are Scum maybe you are just hoping this will all blow over. If you are Town why aren’t you trying to fit in a little time to convince us to save you. I now have dropped you down onto my suspected Scum list now. **Sario** and **Prof. Pepperwinkle** can hardly both be Scum. So which is it? > > I asked **IRConfused** this question, and got a good answer. **Sario** , now I am asking you: Please give me a good reason why I should not switch my vote to you? (And do it soon. I suspect I may get called into work early tomorrow and thus will probably not be around at actual Day’s end.) > [@Biotop](#): > > \ ***Mahaloth** : Originally voted for me in Post #303, but then all but certainly ended any doubt about who was going to be lynched by voting for **Sario** in Post #303. > I suppose I can sort of understand the gut vote on me for my attitude, though to then to say the argument that the case against **Prof P.** was “zippo” (Post #303) is curious. I guess I would like to hear more about why some players ( **Hooker, Mahaloth** ) so easily dismissed the case against **Prof. P**., which in hindsight, seems strong —and of course we now know that case against \*\*PP \*\* turned out to be right. **Mahaloth** ’s vote for **Sario** came just after \*\*Astral \*\*asked players who had not weighed in on the **Prof. P** / **Sario** debate to come pick a side (post #301). None of the others ( **Octarine** , **Suburban Plankton** , **Dante G**.) changed their votes. **Sario** was probably going to be lynched anyway at this point, so I sort of wonder _if_ **Mahaloth** is a wolf, then why did he wait to jump on that bandwagon until the result of a **Sario** lynch seemed already likely? Read: Neutral to slightly Scummy. I have him as slightly scummy, but that may be reaction to getting his vote. I had him slightly town until recently. > [@Biotop](#): > > _Precambrianmollusc_\*: Made a good very early case and vote against **Prof P.** (Post #76) and never changed his vote. I suppose it is possible that **Precambrianmollusc** is Scum and **PCM** made this post never thinking it would take off like it did. Still, \*\*PCM \*\*must be given credit for getting the case against **PP** rolling. While I wish there were more postings, I give **Precambrianmollusc** Town cred. Read: Likely Town. Agreed. He made the right Day One call early. Moderate to strong town lean. > [@Biotop](#): > > \ ***Biotop** : I voted for **Prof. Pepperwinkle** in Post #211. I’m Town, but I’ll leave it for others to judge me. My feelings here haven’t changed. Substantive posts, townie actions. The right call on Day One just reaffirms a town lean here. > [@Biotop](#): > > _ **TexCat** : Unvoted me and voted for **Professor Pepperwinkle** in Post #218. She comes back at near Day’s end says she was keeping her vote on_\* Prof.\*\* **Pepperwinkle** in Post #312 (with 22 minutes left in the Day, just before **Sario** got around to posting a defense) . I wish experienced player **Texcat** was posting more, but at this point she has earned more town cred from me for voting for **Prof. Pepperwinkle** and then not switching to **Sario** when a wolf would surely have been tempted to do so. Read: Pro-Town. Agreed. This seems like a straight forward call. > [@Biotop](#): > > \ ***Dante G**. : Voted for **Mahaloth** in Post #129 based mostly on **Mahaloth** ’s vote against me. Has a disagreement with **Astral** over how he ( **Dante** ) could have forgotten he had not voted. Later **Dante** pushes for an early end to Day as the long game is “arduous.” In Post #232 **Dante G** , says that long analytical postings seem “a lot of work” and those that do it are probably town. > I was trying to find where **Dante G.** posted an opinion on **Sario** / **PP** and I came across post #271, which slipped past me at the time. None of us commented on this post as far as I can tell, but it sure raises my ire right now. > > The only time Dante G weighs in on the **Professor Pepperwinkle** / **Sario** vote is in this post #271, where he says it is “better for myself” not to voice an opinion one way or the other and risk looking bad if wrong. \* “Better for myself”\*??? WTF. > > **Dante,** I don’t know whether you are Scum or not, but I think you should try and look out for what is better for Town rather than worrying so much about what is better for you. Why shouldn’t players in a game put in a lot of work? In order to win, we must analyze, take chances and ultimately risk an opinion. If we are wrong then we get up and try again. If we get lynched for our mistakes then at least the town can reread and know that this now-confirmed Townie’s posts were honest analysis. You know who watches out for themselves? Wolves. Read: Scum Lean. I have a moderate scum read on Dante. I have a hard time reconciling the guy who did the cool narration with careful hints dropped in the Action Hero Mafia game with the guy who can’t remember if he’s voted or not, who is worried about how his vote will look, and the “we lost a scum” line. Post 271 flew by in the heat of the Sario/Prof P debate and nobody called it out. We shoulda. Moderate scum lean here. > [@Biotop](#): > > \ ***Suburban Plankton** : Voted **Snfaulkner** in post #127 for too much cheese talk. I agree with him on that, though not enough for a vote. **SP** missed much of the latter part of Day 1 due to personal reasons. **SP** has promised to be back later with “any new revelations” in Post #417. I will wait for those revelations before making any lurker judgement . No Read. > [@Biotop](#): > > \ ***Octarine** : Voted for \*\*IRConfused \*\*with Post #160. I have given **Octarine** the benefit of the doubt with the low post count. Early posts by \*\*Octarine \*\*ring Town to me, and he does note a weak reason why **Sario** might not be Scum in post #263. (I personally don’t think anyone would reasonably try to pass off a gambler’s fallacy in this game as something to be believed). I hope **Octarine** posts more. If I hadn’t promised not to talk about previous games, I might say that **Octarine** reminds me of **Cygnus42**. Slight Town Read. My slight town lean remains a slight town lean here. Few posts, but good content. * * * > [@Biotop](#): > > \*And now **WF Tomba** : I think I’m fairly clear on where I stand on WF Tomba. He’s my strongest wolf lean. > [@Biotop](#): > > **WFTomba** and **Snfaulkner** are both voting for each other. To me it is more than likely that one or the other is Scum, and quite possible both are. Perhaps somebody has to “go down” for the **Sario** wolf-to-town mislynch. I think this is just the sort of situation a wolf might accuse another wolf. The wolf not lynched gets Town cred. I agree. This looks like one wolf in the pair. Two can’t be eliminated, but one seems most likely. This doesn’t feel like town on town to me at all. Here are my “rankings” for summary: **Town:** Biotop Dead Cat TexCat PCM Octarine Suburban Plankton **Weak Wolf:** Mahaloth snfaulkner **Moderate Wolf:** Dante G IR Confused WF Tomba I have an excess of wolves. The moderates are neck and neck. 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