# Trouble in Paradise (Mafia Game Thread) **URL:** \ **Category:** Thread Games\ **Created:** [October 23, 2015, 10:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585 "2015-10-23T22:52:29Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 25
**Author:** ![HookerChemical](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/278dde/32.png) [@HookerChemical](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HookerChemical)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2015, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/481 "2015-11-09T18:31:46Z")
That was unexpected. My expectation was two kills, or one target that was potentially high on both the town’s list of suspicious persons and the scum list of dangerous persons. (I’m putting myself on that list based on my post count and my two votes for a mis-lynch.) I’ll probably be firing off-the-cuff remarks today but won’t get a deep analysis until later. ---
**Author:** ![Biotop](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biotop/32/321_2.png) [@Biotop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biotop)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2015, 6:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/482 "2015-11-09T18:39:56Z")
I find that I have no idea of what is going on. Could the wolves have some power role who could sniff out **PCM**? Why would the vigilante do it? Serial killer? Something else? Sorry to see you go, **Precambrianmollusc**. ---
**Author:** ![Biotop](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biotop/32/321_2.png) [@Biotop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biotop)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2015, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/483 "2015-11-09T18:53:58Z")
Experienced players: Is ir possible\*\* PCM\*\* was protecting the target of a second attempted kill? Would **PCM** ’s death have stopped his power from being effectivet if he is killed the same night, or would the protection remain? ---
**Author:** ![HookerChemical](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/278dde/32.png) [@HookerChemical](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HookerChemical)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2015, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/484 "2015-11-09T18:54:28Z")
I’m not going to add anything here, but I’ll repost this, which is now know to have been in good faith. > [@Precambrianmollusc](#): > > Some random thoughts > > More on WTF Tomba > Known dead scum the Prof, in post 147 is calling out WFT , Octarin, Sario and IRconfused. > Need to go back and see if there are any other notable low posters that Prof was not calling out. > He had a pretty detailed run through of the players with analysis, so town plus points there. > > On Astral and the Prof – for the record, when I saw Prof P and his chummy post, this indicated to me Prof had perfect information – ie scum. Not a hugely convincing argument and when I saw Astral dismiss my reasoning as flimsy, I had in the back of my mind Astral may be covering for a scummy Prof. That said, it wasn’t exactly a stellar case, so it just ranked as a mild raised eyebrows on the suspicion scale. What really sealed it for me over the Profs scumminess was the fact he defended himself by trying to deflect the reasoning , “oh I am being voted for, for being loud” etc, anything other than address what the accusation was. > To me that was scum trying to distract from the case being made by substituting the argument made for less good reasons, then defending against that . > > Now we don’t know if the Prof was being genuine about his defense , or the validity of the ‘perfect info , accusation, but he did dance around when poked, unfortunately not to the gallows. I would not read anything into the towniness of WFTomba or Bio from the Profs slip if that’s what it was… > > Why I think Dante G is scum > > Day one we have Dante G forgetting he had not voted. > He votes for Mahaloth, staying out of the Prof vs Sario debate > > Day two > Post 360 > Well, at the expense of a Townie, we at least know that we also have either a Vigilante or an SK. Hopefully this will work out in Towns favor. > > Why ‘towns” favor and not “our” favor. > > Post 362 > We did however, lose a Scum player in Pepperwinkle > > Again WE DID LOSE > I just don’t see a town person phrasing it that way, Both of those sentences indicate he lost something and town is another group of people. > Sure I could be reading too much into things, but it keeps happening. > > After some back and forth ( poor choice of word excuse given ), he jumps on SNFFaulkner, but no mention of Deadcat who was in a similar position. > Strikes me as an opportunistic poke as SNF and an attempt to get some votes building anywhere else but on him. Also IF DanteG turns out scum, it is interesting that the line of attack is to look at who switched votes. Maybe no scum were involved in vote switching, or even voting for the Prof or Sario. > > Then in post 378, once he was called out by Suburban Plankton for the SNFaulkner vs Deadcat choice , he jumps on the bandwagon building against WFT and skates out of the limelight. > To me this is just trying to deflect the attention any where else but on him. > > Deadcat. This post bugs me > Post 391 > > Firstly, although it’s a pity I made the wrong decision in switching from Prof. P to Sario, I can’t regret this too much, as unfortunately he wasn’t being much help and it seemed like the percentage play at the time. Shame Sario didn’t have the time available to play the game which resulted in his downfall. > > I’m delighted to see my suspicions of the Prof were vindicated, and it seems at least one other town-aligned person agreed with me. Which is fortunate, as otherwise I suspect I would have spent most of this day arguing for the Prof to be lynched. The fact this is no longer necessary gives us an opportunity to try and sniff out a second wolf > > Having it both ways, “hey sorry I voted for Sario, but look how townie I was voting for the Prof and other agreed with me ( what was your case DC?) that the prof was scum, and I would have carried on , other than , you know, voting for town” > Makes me hellishly wary of DC. Although, in his and SNF defense, I don’t see scum getting on an early bus of the Prof. Then again , I have always been wrong in the past. > > Anyway that’s where I am right now VOTE DANTE G He was my second choice the previous day. ---
**Author:** ![TexCat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/texcat/32/9041_2.png) [@TexCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TexCat)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2015, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/485 "2015-11-09T19:07:22Z")
> [@Biotop](#): > > Experienced players: > > Is ir possible\*\* PCM\*\* was protecting the target of a second attempted kill? Would **PCM** ’s death have stopped his power from being effectivet if he is killed the same night, or would the protection remain? It’s possible that PcM protected a second target. His protection would happen before any kills. It’s also possible that our vig decided to hold their fire or was only a one shot vig. ---
**Author:** ![Dante\_G](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/977dab/32.png) [@Dante\_G](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dante_G)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2015, 7:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/486 "2015-11-09T19:19:55Z")
Only one kill, which is interesting. Did Scum not submit a kill? Was it Blocked in some way. Was Precam’s death the result of Scum and the Vigilante did not kill? Precam was looking more and more Town as the game progressed, so I can’t imagine that a Vigilante would take him out. Maybe we do have a Serial Killer or maybe it was a Scum kill and the other Killing roles did not submit a pick for the Night. I want to go back and do some more reading of Precams conversations. ---
**Author:** ![Astral\_Rejection](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/258eb7/32.png) [@Astral\_Rejection](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Astral_Rejection)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2015, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/487 "2015-11-09T20:07:02Z")
Wrong thread. ---
**Author:** ![Octarine](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/22d042/32.png) [@Octarine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Octarine)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2015, 8:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/488 "2015-11-09T20:51:35Z")
Precambrianmollusc’s death/Town status certainly doesn’t make Dante look good. Combine that with the fact that Dante voted for WF Tomba (so did I, and probably other townies, but overall it’s fair to assume a higher percentage of people voting for him are wolves than in the general population), and I’m having a hard time thinking of something he could say to convince me otherwise. To give Dante the benefit of the doubt, there are a myraid of different reasons Precambrian could’ve been targeted, and of course voting for a townie doesn’t mean you’re a wolf. Still, fairly suspicious. ---
**Author:** ![Dante\_G](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/977dab/32.png) [@Dante\_G](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dante_G)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2015, 9:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/489 "2015-11-09T21:36:25Z")
I find it hard to believe that the evidence against me consists of just slight wording issues in some of my posts. I’ve played this game many times and I’ve never seen a Wolf say so many things that could be incriminating like you guys are saying that I am. Trust me, I am Town. A Townie that isn’t playing very well, but a Townie none the less. ---
**Author:** ![Biotop](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biotop/32/321_2.png) [@Biotop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biotop)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2015, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/490 "2015-11-09T21:42:52Z")
> [@Octarine](#): > > To give Dante the benefit of the doubt, there are a myraid of different reasons Precambrian could’ve been targeted, and of course voting for a townie doesn’t mean you’re a wolf. Still, fairly suspicious. **Octarine** : Help me out. I am struggling to come up with a lot of good reasons for \*\*PCM \*\*to have been targeted. I don’t see the sense of it unless his role was somehow learned. What other reasons do you see as possible other than the kill relating to \*\*Dante \*\*? ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2015, 10:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/491 "2015-11-09T22:17:19Z")
> [@Biotop](#): > > Experienced players: > > 1. Is ir possible\*\* PCM\*\* was protecting the target of a second attempted kill? 2. Would **PCM** ’s death have stopped his power from being effectivet if he is killed the same night, or would the protection remain? 1. Sure. 2. No, in my opinion. In the vast majority of games, a policy is used called “all night actions succeed unless blocked”. Otherwise, a clear order of operations/actions should have been explained in the opening. > [@Dante\_G](#): > > Only one kill, which is interesting. 1. Did Scum not submit a kill? 2. Was it Blocked in some way. 3. Was Precam’s death the result of Scum and the Vigilante did not kill? 1. Who knows? 2. Who knows? 3. Who knows? My guess, and this is a total guess, is that either Dr. Precam either protected the vigilante(wow, incredible luck/skill), the vigilante did not choose to kill(reasonable with so little knowledge - why N1 then?), or the vigilante was one-shot. Out of my butt guess would lean towards one-shot being the most likely scenario, though I guess anything is possible. Scum forgetting their kill? I kind of doubt it. They are a team and it is very common for anyone on the team to put the kill order in. Unlikely for a whole team to miss. I’m sure there are other options/scenarios, but this is about all that seems likely. ---
**Author:** ![IRConfused](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/76d3ee/32.png) [@IRConfused](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/IRConfused)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2015, 10:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/492 "2015-11-09T22:33:42Z")
> [@Biotop](#): > > **Octarine** : > > Help me out. I am struggling to come up with a lot of good reasons for \*\*PCM \*\*to have been targeted. I don’t see the sense of it unless his role was somehow learned. What other reasons do you see as possible other than the kill relating to \*\*Dante \*\*? **PCM** was the only person to not vote with the bandwagon both times. Maybe the wolves picked up on that and decided that he was not being swayed by there arguments. I believe that a nightkill against someone that is making a good argument against others will sway the remaining town folk to take that argument much more seriously. I am going to take what he was saying with a grain of salt and keep in mind that he may have been going down the rabbit hole and the wolfs came up with a way to get everyone else going the same way. ---
**Author:** ![Biotop](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biotop/32/321_2.png) [@Biotop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biotop)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2015, 4:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/493 "2015-11-10T04:55:42Z")
I think it is important during all this speculation about **Precambrianmollusc** , that we don’t forget that we still haven’t figured out how the vote on Day 1 went from **Prof. P** to **Sario**. I still believe there are Scum to be found there. We were wrong about **WFTomba** , but that still leaves the other **Sario** voters. I think my mistake with **Tomba** was coming to the conclusion that he was Scum, and then going back and looking for the evidence. A difficulty I am finding is that _just about any_ player can seem to be Scum, if you first assume guilt and then go back and look at their posts for proof. **Confirmation bias** , I believe it is called. This was poor play on my part. Best to try to find the evidence first, I think, keeping an open mind in the search. I will do better. The **Precam** night kill is very puzzling to me. **TexCat** sums it up well in post#480. Are we meant to think one thing or another? Are we meant to think anything at all? Which wine? On the one hand, I was already suspicious of **Dante** , but maybe the wolves want us to go in that direction. On the other hand, **Precam** also says in his hefty Post #452 that he is “hellishly wary of **DeadCat**.” **DeadCat** was one of the vote-switchers from \*\*P.P. \*\*to **Sario**. I had pretty much taken to thinking of **DeadCat** as probable Town. Am I too hasty? Though I don’t see how I can have it both ways, the **Precam** lynch makes me slightly less suspicious of **Dante** , and slightly more suspicious of **DeadCat**. I must however, let **Dante G** once again know my displeasure at his refusal to weigh in on the **Prof P.** / **Sario** debate when it mattered. **Dante G** : **WFTomba** took a chance and voted. And we lynched him for it. You didn’t make a choice, and here you still are today. I am sure it is nice to be alive, but had you maybe dared to voice suspicion of **Prof. Pepperwinkle** , or even **Sario** , it could possibly have influenced the outcome of both Days. I noticed you were not on the sidelines yesterday. You were there to join many of us in the **WFTomba** mislynch. Of course there was no runner-up really yesterDay to worry about how you might look in choosing a side. Taking a stand is always better for Town in the long run, it seems to me. Do the right thing in the future. If you are indeed Town as you claim, please make amends to **WfTomba** , **Sario** , and the rest of us. We are now dealing with a 33% probability that any player is Scum. That still means other players are more likely town, but there is reasonable cause for more suspicion. A final sobering thought for Monday. We need to make the right decision toDay or this game is going to be very hard to win. ---
**Author:** ![Biotop](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biotop/32/321_2.png) [@Biotop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biotop)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2015, 5:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/494 "2015-11-10T05:39:16Z")
One last troubling thought before hitting the hay: 33% Scum amongst us is based on 3 wolves remaining. Though improbable, if there happen to have been 5 wolves instead of 4 at the beginning, we will actually lose toNight if we mislynch today and the third killer (vigilante?) kills a Town player in error. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2015, 1:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/495 "2015-11-10T13:08:10Z")
> [@Biotop](#): > > We are now dealing with a 33% probability that any player is Scum. That still means other players are more likely town, but there is reasonable cause for more suspicion. And you know this because you know exactly how many scum there are? I see you added a comment after this to clarify, but that looks like even you spilled the beans. PIS - perfect information syndrome. \*\*Vote Biotop \*\* I actually agree 3 is likely, by the way. However, you seem to know it. ---
**Author:** ![Biotop](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biotop/32/321_2.png) [@Biotop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biotop)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2015, 1:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/496 "2015-11-10T13:52:38Z")
\*\*Mahaloth \*\*, I don’t know how many Scum there are, as I have noted many times. I have been using the generally accepted likely base of 4 for percentages much of the game and did it there to emphasize what is probably obvious, that we are less able to trust others than before. 1 in 3 feels ominous to me. Then I thought about the slim danger if 5 and what it might mean. I really don’t think there is much chance there were 5 wolves to start, but I don’t really know with absolute certainty. If there were 5 we could lose toNight. If that sounds like PIS to you, I have no other defense. ---
**Author:** ![TexCat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/texcat/32/9041_2.png) [@TexCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TexCat)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2015, 3:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/497 "2015-11-10T15:21:10Z")
Mahaloth, it’s Day 3 and that’s what you’re voting? Whose theory was it that the player pointing out a PIS “slip” was more likely scum than the one who slipped? Cookies? Renata? ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2015, 3:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/498 "2015-11-10T15:33:16Z")
> [@TexCat](#): > > Mahaloth, it’s Day 3 and that’s what you’re voting? > > Whose theory was it that the player pointing out a PIS “slip” was more likely scum than the one who slipped? Cookies? Renata? 1. Yes. 2. I’m not sure. I don’t remember that theory specifically. I just thought Biotop felt awfully sure of the number, then rushed to clarify that he doesn’t know. ---
**Author:** ![Dante\_G](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/977dab/32.png) [@Dante\_G](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dante_G)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2015, 5:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/499 "2015-11-10T17:05:10Z")
I’m pretty sure that he only posted the after post because he knew that others would jump on him for the “slip.” I don’t think he is a Scum that let out a secret, because I don’t personally think there _is_ a secret. Atleast no secret in his post anyway. This is mafia after all, it’s full of secrets. I think its a preeeeety safe bet that there were 4 Scum and now just 3. To me it would make since as a Mod, in a game of this size, to have 4 Scum and a Town Vigilante to help with the balance. ---
**Author:** ![Dead\_Cat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9fc29f/32.png) [@Dead\_Cat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dead_Cat)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2015, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/500 "2015-11-10T18:18:38Z")
I should be able to come back and do a more comprehensive analysis later in the week, but for now: **VOTE Mahaloth** I’m not seeing a whole lot of analysis in your posts, and it seems to me you’re trying too hard with the whole “we don’t know anything” schtick - is that to cover up the fact that you do know nearly everything? You also voted for Sario. About the only thing I have in your favour at the moment is you didn’t vote for WFTomba - but you waited until he was practically already dead (i.e. well ahead in the vote count and no-one looked likely to change, especially after the fiasco on Day One which no doubt played into your hands there) and then made a seemingly random vote for HookerChemical, who most of us have a town read on at the moment. Finally, I think your vote for Biotop is based on pretty weak reasoning. Having said that, I agree with Biotop’s earlier post that I have been guilty in this game of assuming someone to be a wolf and then looking for the evidence to make the case, which hasn’t worked out too well for us so far. I don’t think this post is another example of that, though. Mahaloth is just my prime suspect at the moment. Others who have raised my suspicion (snfaulkner, Dante G, IRConfused), while not off my hit list necessarily, do seem to have plausible excuses for what I see as their suspicious behaviour. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585.md?page=24) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585.md?page=26)