# Trouble in Paradise (Mafia Game Thread) **URL:** \ **Category:** Thread Games\ **Created:** [October 23, 2015, 10:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585 "2015-10-23T22:52:29Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 39
**Author:** ![snfaulkner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snfaulkner/32/433_2.png) [@snfaulkner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snfaulkner)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2015, 2:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/761 "2015-12-01T02:49:22Z")
Still rereading things…a quick question: What are the chances of there being another power role, of either alignment? ---
**Author:** ![Biotop](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biotop/32/321_2.png) [@Biotop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biotop)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2015, 4:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/762 "2015-12-01T04:05:11Z")
> [@snfaulkner](#): > > Still rereading things…a quick question: What are the chances of there being another power role, of either alignment? **snfaulkner** , I think that the chances that Town has another power role are slim and none. There would be no reason for us to conceal anything at this stage of the game, at least none that I can see. I think it is quite possible that the wolves have a power role. It might help explain the odd night kill of **PCM** and possibly the night kill of **Texcat**. The wolves had quite a “lucky” run knocking off our power roles on consecutive nights. ---
**Author:** ![Biotop](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biotop/32/321_2.png) [@Biotop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biotop)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2015, 4:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/763 "2015-12-01T04:15:33Z")
> [@Dead\_Cat](#): > > Y > Biotop, I am from the UK but have been on this board long enough to know all about the ‘holidays’, and Black Friday etc. The latter is attempting to make its way across the pond but it appears we are resisting a bit for now. I have also worked retail. I feel your pain and I didn’t mean to upset you. Having said that, for clarity it wasn’t that that made me change my vote. I should not have let your comments upset me. I am frustrated that my schedule did not allow me to play as I wanted and thus I was often unable to be here at critical times and engage in discussions as they were going on. I appreciate everyone holding the Day over for me yesterDay and not ending it early. If I end up getting lynched because of my schedule, I will be disappointed because that was something out of my control and something that I have almost no way to prove. If I end up getting lynched because of my abrasive responses to my frustration over that schedule, then it is on me and I have no one to blame but myself. ---
**Author:** ![snfaulkner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snfaulkner/32/433_2.png) [@snfaulkner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snfaulkner)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2015, 4:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/764 "2015-12-01T04:27:24Z")
> [@Biotop](#): > > **snfaulkner** , I think that the chances that Town has another power role are slim and none. There would be no reason for us to conceal anything at this stage of the game, at least none that I can see. I think it is quite possible that the wolves have a power role. It might help explain the odd night kill of **PCM** and possibly the night kill of **Texcat**. The wolves had quite a “lucky” run knocking off our power roles on consecutive nights. That seems about right for what i was thinking for town. However for wolves…hmmmm. IRC was easy choice because he outed himself. Possibly PCM was dumb luck. But if Malaloth blocked Texcat, and there was no vig kill, it seems easy to put it together she was the vig. Though, how did he know to block her? so yeah, could be a investigator or not…or so it seems to me. Speaking of what it seems to me, this is by far the toughest Day for me yet. I felt really good about the SP lynch and was thinking the rest would be a breeze since I was finally getting my logic in order. But then he had to go and flip Alpha. And I’m positive Dante got night killed because I’m obviously the incompetent boob that’s gonna ruin this game after so many have invested so many hours/days/weeks into it…so, ya know, no pressure or anything… I do have to congratulate whomever is the last wolf. I still see almost a dead heat between the three of you left. However, I really want to call Biotop town at this point and then choose between HC and DC…but…I won’t…just yet… ---
**Author:** ![HookerChemical](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/278dde/32.png) [@HookerChemical](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HookerChemical)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2015, 1:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/765 "2015-12-01T13:23:57Z")
The case against Dead Cat: I think the most convincing evidence against Dead Cat is also the most recent. ToDay begins > [@Dead\_Cat](#): > > However, SP went after me pretty hard yesterDay which I would say enhances my town cred. Similarly, I went hard and early after SP and never wavered, I went hard and early after Mahaloth on Day Three and never wavered, and I went hard and early after Prof P on Day One (and unfortunately wavered at the end). While I appreciate my voting record earlier in the game could be called into question (as evidenced by SP’s attempt to frame me yesterDay), I just don’t think that stands up any more. Dead Cat clearly waivered when going after Suburban Plankton, despite the claim to the contrary. I’m the one that held firm on Day 4 to a vote against SP, while Dead Cat changed over to Octarine late in the Day. This is a pattern repeated from Day One, where DC made a critical change from Prof P to Sario to put Sario into the lead and remove Prof P from the gallows. The attempt to claim SP’s attacks as townie cred is too much of a stretch. It reeks of scum looking for townie cred. Dead Cat knows that the attacks from revealed scum should hold no water, but still tries to claim them as townie cred. > [@Dead\_Cat](#): > > That being the case, I’m going to air my suspicions after all. At the moment I have to say they are with Biotop, on the basis that in the last couple of Days his analytical posts have rather dropped off, whereas Hooker has kept it up. I appreciate work schedules could be a genuine townie reason for this but on the other hand it might be a convenient cover. I also don’t like the fact that Biotop said we should ignore Mahaloth’s post-confession posts, I maintain that I don’t think that is necessarily correct. Finally, Biotop was late getting on the bandwagon with his votes for both Mahaloth and Suburban Plankton. In his favour is the fact that he maintained his vote on Prof P on Day One, but at that point Sario was all but confirmed as the lynch so this could have been a tactical move. My gut has been right a lot of the time so far, I think it has only let me down when others have played poorly. So: > > \*\*VOTE Biotop \*\* I can think of justification to vote for Biotop, but this isn’t it. This vote determines whether town wins or whether we go to the tiebreaker, and that justification here is horrible and wrong. It comes off to me as scum looking for a reason to vote for a townie. Biotop has a legitimate reason for posting less frequently during the last couple Days, stated clearly in advance (Post 679). By my quick count, he made nine posts yesterDay and twelve the previous Day (discounting Night Posts). That’s not far off his average and maybe a little above it when you take out nighttime fluff posts (71 total posts to the thread and six Days gives 11.8 posts per day, including nighttime posts). The allegation that Biotop hasn’t kept up the analysis while I have is also wrong. Post 710 asks some good questions and provides scum hunting. Likewise 724. I strongly agree with Biotop that we should ignore (or at least take with mountains of salt) Mahaloth’s post confession posts. I take it a step further and think that anything said by Mahaloth (and any other scum) must be read with extreme caution. There is no way of knowing whether they were trying to build townie cred by bussing scum, trying to start a lynch on a townie, or simply trying to stay under the radar. Finally, there’s the allegation that Biotop was late to the Mahaloth and Suburban Plankton bandwagons. Deliberation isn’t scummy at all. Bandwagons have been a mixed bag this game for sure. The Sario, WF Tomba, and Octarine bandwagons all bolted out the gate with little reasoning and bad results. The Suburban Plankton bandwagon at least had a solid basis for taking off. Looking at a bandwagon and asking whether there’s really anything to the case isn’t scummy at all. I’ve even voted deliberately against a bandwagon because I wasn’t sold on the case and wanted things to slow down (Post 379). In summary, these weren’t reasons to justify a Biotop lynch. They were a desired mis-lynch looking for reasons. > [@Dead\_Cat](#): > > Yes, it seems I got at least one thing right - the Mexican stand off I predicted has come to pass. However, not for long. I haven’t got time to post in more detail right now, but at the moment I find myself much more swayed by Biotop’s postings today than HookerChemical’s. As such, while I may well change a couple more times yet, > > UNVOTE Biotop > > VOTE HookerChemical And that’s the clincher for me. This switch is opportunistic scummyness. Scum doesn’t care which townie is lynched today, only that a townie is. Dead Cat sees the circular firing squad, then decides to jump off their (poorly justified) vote to double up on me. This switch doesn’t even make an attempt at providing justification. There are 100 posts to choose from. Certainly there are some mistakes and missteps to use as evidence, and nothing is provided. Dead Cat is either a townie with no conviction or a wolf looking for any kill that isn’t him. Now, I’d like to jump all the way back to Day One. > [@Dead\_Cat](#): > > Well, I guess replying to this isn’t going to help my case with you, but to be honest I’m not too worried about that at this stage. Like Biotop said I just don’t get the whole carrying over from previous games stuff. If I’m being combative it’s because I have picked up a particularly strong vibe about Prof. P, and I am literally prepared to die on that hill. I will either be vindicated or scorned for making a rookie error, I guess. > > To be honest, I’m now convinced enough to say: if the Prof gets lynched at the end of the day and it’s revealed he is indeed scum, won’t that make me virtually confirmed town? If I get lynched at the end of the day and it’s revealed I’m town, well, hopefully that will give the rest of you useful information too. Sometime later, we find ourselves here: > [@HookerChemical](#): > > Here’s a summary, with strikeout from Johnny’s most recent official summary (Post 212). > > Prof Pepperwinkle - 5 votes: (Sario 38)(Precambrianmollusc 76)(Dead Cat 100)[del](snfaulkner 170)[/del](Biotop 211)(TexCat 218) > Sario - 4 votes: (IRConfused 55)(Prof. Pepperwinkle 191)(sfaulkner 237)(Astral Rejection 245) > IRConfused - 2 vote: (Octarine 160)(HookerChemical 246) > snfaulkner - 1 vote: (Suburban Plankton 127) > Astral Rejection - 1 vote: (WF Tomba 94) > Mahaloth - 1 vote: (Dante G 129) > Biotop - 1 vote: [del](Texcat 50)[/del] (Mahaloth 124) > Dead Cat - 0 vote: [del](Hookerchemical 122)[/del] > [@Dead\_Cat](#): > > I kind of wish I hadn’t nailed my colours to the mast quite so firmly, so early (rookie error I guess), because I’m seeing some good reasons for voting for Sario and IRConfused (and I was already leaning scum towards them both). But if I change my vote now and am wrong, that will look bad. On the other hand, if I change my vote and it’s right, that would be better (for the game I mean, in both cases). Then, Dead Cat takes Prof P off the gallows: > [@Dead\_Cat](#): > > I am seriously considering changing my vote to Sario, because as I have already acknowledged, although I still stand by what I said re. Prof P, I could be wrong, and if so that is bad for town. Whereas if we are wrong about our scum read on Sario, he’s not helping town much anyway, so no great loss if we mislynch him (i.e. I’m leaning back towards lunch the lurker). > > Could Sario and the Prof. both be scum? I agree it seems unlikely given they voted for each other fairly early and without a great deal of evidence, which would be odd. So I’m starting to think it’s better for the game maybe if we lynch Sario. If he is revealed as scum, we can probably completely reassess Prof P. If he reveals as town, Prof P remains under serious suspicion. Whereas if we lynch Prof P and are wrong, we haven’t got much useful information and probably still want to lynch Sario next day anyway. > > Absolutely. I don’t like the fact the voting is so close - it makes it too easy for a wolf to jump in just before end of day and create a tie, and if none of us townies is watching (I’ll be working at end of day so won’t be able to keep an eye on things down to the wire) this could result in no lynch when we have a couple of solid suspicions to go on. > > **UNVOTE Prof. Pepperwinkle** > **[VOTE Sario** > > If you agree, please consider changing your vote (especially if it’s currently for neither of the above) to create a solid majority one way or the other. In retrospect, I think these posts are damming for a few reasons.[ul] [li]It took Prof P off the gallows[/li][li]It did it in a way that was constantly saying how townie Dead Cat was if Prof P flipped scum or vice versa (“if the Prof gets lynched at the end of the day and it’s revealed he is indeed scum, won’t that make me virtually confirmed town?”). I came around to where I didn’t see the “die on this hill” post, but rereading it in context, it’s thoroughly couched in “We can’t both be scum” scummyness that I have to believe that it was bussing.[/li][li]DC is vacillating between not caring what townies thing (“Well, I guess replying to this isn’t going to help my case with you, but to be honest I’m not too worried about that at this stage.”) to nearly being crippled by it (“But if I change my vote now and am wrong, that will look bad. On the other hand, if I change my vote and it’s right, that would be better (for the game I mean, in both cases).)[/ul][/li] Going back to Day One and Two makes a solid case that Dead Cat has been the one slacking off on the major analysis. Compare Dead Cat posts like Post 234 ([http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=18812025&postcount=234](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=18812025&postcount=234)), Post 400 ([http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=18830454&postcount=400](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=18830454&postcount=400)), and Post 397 ([http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=18829612&postcount=397](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=18829612&postcount=397)) to recent posts such as the posts justifying either me or Biotop. It’s not Biotop that has decreased posting/analysis; it’s Dead Cat. ---
**Author:** ![HookerChemical](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/278dde/32.png) [@HookerChemical](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HookerChemical)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2015, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/766 "2015-12-01T16:06:31Z")
The major problem with Biotop’s case against me is that it either applies to Dead Cat as well. > [@Biotop](#): > > Unless **DeadCat** and **Suburban Plankton** have been plotting a brilliant self-destructive end game, then the remaining wolf must be **Hooker** , it seems to me. You are dismissing the back and forth between DC and SP as a self-destructive end game when it can be interpreted as bussing. SP nearly died Day 4, before the tide turned against Octarine. He was the next likely target for the lynch on Day 5. I don’t see why you view the DC/SP posts as self-destructive if DC is a wolf but not if I were a wolf. I was the first to vote for SP after the IRConfused claim. I left my vote on him despite the bandwagon against Octarine. I was the first to vote against him yesterDay. However, it’s Dead Cat that comes out of the gate crowing about how townie DC is because SP said bad things. The element missing from a HC/SP feud that is present in the DC/SP feud is the case SP presents against Dead Cat, but that should be taken with a mountain of salt because it is coming from scum SP. > [@Biotop](#): > > **Hooker** ’s Post #517 is actually quite different than **TexCat** ’s #516 though. **TexCat** ’s case was a full-blown attack only on\*\* Mahaloth\*\*. Her case was to the point, well thought out and linked. **Hooker** ’s post #517 voices lengthy suspicions on **Dante G** and **snfaulkner** as well, only finishing up with a case against\*\* Mahaloth\*\*. **Hooker** actually does not vote for\*\* Mahaloth\*\* in Post #517, but waits nine more minutes. I originally took this to mean that he read\*\* TexCat\*\*’s post and then realized **Mahaloth** must be scum. But maybe he realized that **TexCat** ’s case was damning and now was the time to get credit for a wolf pelt or else be under the suspicion that would almost certainly come if he did not vote the right way. When composing Post 517, I wasn’t sure if I was reading too much into Mahaloth’s posts or not. I still felt Dante was a reasonable lynch when I was writing it. Mahaloth has a vote on me at the time, so I wasn’t sure how much of my reaction to his posts was based on the vote against me and how much was based on evidence. When I read TexCat’s post, I knew I wasn’t reading too much into Mahaloth’s posts and seeing boogeymen. Somebody else was seeing very similar evidence, so I switched my vote to Mahaloth. Here’s TexCat’s case: > [@TexCat](#): > > **Why I think Hooker is scum** > [ul] > [li]His defense of Prof P [/li][li]Hooker asking who an investigator should target before N1 [/li][li]Mahaloth’s throwaway vote on Hooker D2[/li][li]Scum killing PcM and Hooker jumping on that reason to vote Dante again Today[/li][/ul] [LIST] [li]I’ve stated my reasons Prof P didn’t come off to me as scummy. It was a misjudgment based on the previous game where there was a familiarity and banter that felt the same to me.[/li][li]I’m not sure who the inquiry about the investigator is scummy, but I may as well out my reason for making it.[/li] > [@HookerChemical](#): > > In Avalon, if the scum identify a specific good guy (Merlin) results in a scum win even if Arthur’s team outperformed scum. > With this in mind, the best thing vanilla town can do during night is die instead of a town power role. This is another reason speaking up is good. If you look town and put good ideas out, you could get killed instead of a town power role. It’s a badge of honor and the best thing for town (other than an avoided kill). It was a bit of an attempt to draw attention to myself from the scum. It would be better to die at night with scum thinking they were hunting a power role than to lose that role. (This is akin to the Percival role in Avalon, who is frequently a protector of Merlin.) [li]I think the Mahaloth throw away vote on me Day 2 carries about as much weight as the throw away vote he put on you, Biotop, for Day 3.[/li] [li]Lastly, there’s my use of the PCM kill as the basis for suspicion of Dante G. At the time, I was viewing things through the “Dante is scum” glasses based on his feud with WF Tomba, WFT flipping town, and Dante’s gaffes. When TexCat was night killed after voicing her suspicions of me, I reconsidered because if scum killed TexCat after fingering townie me, it was more likely that PCM was killed fingering Dante G as a frame-up. Obviously, I never took Dante G off the list of scum candidates, but I certainly did better at hunting scum afterward.[/li] > [@HookerChemical](#): > > I also think Dante G could be being set up, but it’s for completely different reasons than TexCat. (I’m not saying he is, only that I have to consider that possibility.) > > PCM died accusing Dante G. > > My initial take on the events (PCM’s finger and subsequent night kill) was that the wolves were trying to kill those who were throwing accusations their way. Otherwise, the PCM kill doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. Now, TexCat has died fingering me. I’m looking at a situation where the most recent NK is fingering me and I am not a wolf, so it’s reasonable that the PCM/Dante scenario is similar. > [@Biotop](#): > > I kept wondering why **Suburban Plankton** was not making an active case for his innocence yesterDay. I think the reason is that they were setting \*\*Hooker \*\*up to be” certain” Town if **SP** , the likely lynch, was actually lynched. This also explains why **Hooker** did not find it odd yesterday that a wolf was voting for **SP** while still being “supportive” of me. His role must have been to be on the “confirmed” Town side if **SP** got lynched. Of course they might have thought there was some chance that **DeadCat** might actually fall under suspicion. It was Win/Win however the voting went. Virtually all of this would be the same if Dead Cat were scum as well. The difference is that in that scenario, the SP vote on DC was to provide townie cred rather than a weak attempt at a win/win scenario. > [@Biotop](#): > > **Hooker,** why didn’t you ask about the tie-breaker if you were unclear when I was explicitly posting about it several times yesterDay? You say I only mentioned it once, but I either stated it directly or implied it heavily in Posts #663, #710, #727, #729 and #733. Were you not focused on any of those posts? It was also right there in the rules when we started the game. _Were you not reading my posts at all yesterDay? And if not, why not?_ If you really did not understand the rules on the tie breaker, then I have my answer to Mystery #4. Why would a wolf vote for scum **SP** if the result would be at best a tie for them? Because the wolves somehow thought they would win with a tie. And **Hooker,** if you actually did understand the tie rule already, then the question is a fake one and only a wolf would have reason to ask a phony question. I was not focusing on the aspects of your posts considering a tie vote but rather on the evidence presented against and for other players. This is an oversight on my part, but I have certainly been reading your posts. I also didn’t think about it coming down to the coin-flip tiebreaker for the last round and how anticlimactic that finale would be until toDay and that it conflicts with one general rule I thought applied to mafia (that scum wins when scum is half the town). It doesn’t seem like the game should do that, but it does. The last wolf voted for SP because SP was very likely to be the lynch that day. I came out of the gate voting SP. SNF voted SP before reading the thread. Please keep in mind that I was the first to start the pivot to SP after IRC’s claim and I was the only one to stick with that vote and not join the Octarine mis-lynch through Day 4. If I were scum targeting a tie, it makes no sense that I was the first to finger Suburban Plankton, and the only one to stick with him throughout the post claim voting. It makes more sense that scum DC saw the writing on the wall and that SP was the imminent Day 5 lynch. ---
**Author:** ![Dead\_Cat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9fc29f/32.png) [@Dead\_Cat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dead_Cat)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2015, 6:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/767 "2015-12-01T18:41:40Z")
> [@HookerChemical](#): > > The case against Dead Cat: > I think the most convincing evidence against Dead Cat is also the most recent. Well, you would say that, because there isn’t much otherwise, apart from a couple of things I have already acknowledged. > [@](#): > > Dead Cat clearly waivered when going after Suburban Plankton, despite the claim to the contrary. I’m the one that held firm on Day 4 to a vote against SP, while Dead Cat changed over to Octarine late in the Day. Apologies if I was unclear, but I was referring to Day Five, not Day Four. I did not intend to make the claim that I had been unwavering in pursuing SP before that. > [@](#): > > This is a pattern repeated from Day One, where DC made a critical change from Prof P to Sario to put Sario into the lead and remove Prof P from the gallows. Yes, both were big errors with hindsight. Such is the nature of the game. Had Sario and/or Octarine put up a decent defence of themselves, I would certainly have reconsidered. I hope this does not cost us the game. > [@](#): > > The attempt to claim SP’s attacks as townie cred is too much of a stretch. It reeks of scum looking for townie cred. Dead Cat knows that the attacks from revealed scum should hold no water, but still tries to claim them as townie cred. I disagree. Scum should have been desperate to get a mislynch yesterDay, as it would have dramatically increased their chances of winning the game. Granted, I have no experience and could be wrong, but my view is that scum on scum attacks are very possible early in the game, but rather less likely later in the game. Do you disagree with this? > [@](#): > > I can think of justification to vote for Biotop, but this isn’t it. This vote determines whether town wins or whether we go to the tiebreaker, and that justification here is horrible and wrong. It comes off to me as scum looking for a reason to vote for a townie. Well, I sadly acknowledge I may have misplayed this. The reason I am desperate to look town is because I am town, and really want to avoid a mislynch toDay. I recognised that all of us are going to come under suspicion (except snf) so I wish to state my town case as strongly as possible. > [@](#): > > Biotop has a legitimate reason for posting less frequently during the last couple Days, stated clearly in advance (Post 679). By my quick count, he made nine posts yesterDay and twelve the previous Day (discounting Night Posts). That’s not far off his average and maybe a little above it when you take out nighttime fluff posts (71 total posts to the thread and six Days gives 11.8 posts per day, including nighttime posts). The allegation that Biotop hasn’t kept up the analysis while I have is also wrong. Post 710 asks some good questions and provides scum hunting. Likewise 724. I hadn’t run those numbers, my comment was based on an observation that in previous Days he had tended to make balanced, lengthy posts analysing all players, whereas yesterDay he was quiet for much of the Day and towards the end just seemed to badgering Dante, sometimes (as he himself admitted) a little unfairly, I thought. He says he has good reasons for not posting, and as it happens I have no reason to disbelieve these, I was just pointing out that it could equally be good cover for him not posting if he is in fact a wolf. Since then, I have changed my mind because I think his posts toDay have been more helpful and insightful than yours. > [@](#): > > I strongly agree with Biotop that we should ignore (or at least take with mountains of salt) Mahaloth’s post confession posts. I take it a step further and think that anything said by Mahaloth (and any other scum) must be read with extreme caution. There is no way of knowing whether they were trying to build townie cred by bussing scum, trying to start a lynch on a townie, or simply trying to stay under the radar. I basically agree with you here, except I don’t think we should necessarily ignore them completely. I stand by my comment that I found Biotop’s immediate reaction of “we should ignore them” to be worthy of thought in itself. It may be nothing. > [@](#): > > Finally, there’s the allegation that Biotop was late to the Mahaloth and Suburban Plankton bandwagons. Deliberation isn’t scummy at all. Bandwagons have been a mixed bag this game for sure. The Sario, WF Tomba, and Octarine bandwagons all bolted out the gate with little reasoning and bad results. The Suburban Plankton bandwagon at least had a solid basis for taking off. Looking at a bandwagon and asking whether there’s really anything to the case isn’t scummy at all. I’ve even voted deliberately against a bandwagon because I wasn’t sold on the case and wanted things to slow down (Post 379). This is fair comment, thank you. > [@](#): > > In summary, these weren’t reasons to justify a Biotop lynch. They were a desired mis-lynch looking for reasons. Absolutely not looking for a mislynch, but there is some truth to “looking for reasons” - because that’s where we are in the game right now. > [@](#): > > And that’s the clincher for me. This switch is opportunistic scummyness. Scum doesn’t care which townie is lynched today, only that a townie is. Dead Cat sees the circular firing squad, then decides to jump off their (poorly justified) vote to double up on me. This switch doesn’t even make an attempt at providing justification. There are 100 posts to choose from. Certainly there are some mistakes and missteps to use as evidence, and nothing is provided. You can’t have it both ways - above you say my vote for Biotop is poorly-justified (which I accept), here you criticise me for changing it. Clearly, if I don’t vote for Biotop I will vote for you. As I said above, I may have played this poorly. Chiefly, I have been guilty of jumping in toDay early - the reason for this is that I haven’t yet had time to properly analyse all the past Days, but I wanted to say where I was at that point. I was also eager to get this conversation started because I could foresee a possibility that no-one would want to cast the first stone (and now I see why). If that costs Town the game, I am sorry - it will be at least partly my fault. > [@](#): > > Dead Cat is either a townie with no conviction or a wolf looking for any kill that isn’t him. The former. But I am also looking for any kill that isn’t me, because I know I’m town, so avoiding any kill that isn’t me gives us at least a 50-50 chance of winning with a correct lynch. [quote] In retrospect, I think these posts are damming for a few reasons.[ul] [li]It took Prof P off the gallows[/li][li]It did it in a way that was constantly saying how townie Dead Cat was if Prof P flipped scum or vice versa (“if the Prof gets lynched at the end of the day and it’s revealed he is indeed scum, won’t that make me virtually confirmed town?”). I came around to where I didn’t see the “die on this hill” post, but rereading it in context, it’s thoroughly couched in “We can’t both be scum” scummyness that I have to believe that it was bussing.[/li][li]DC is vacillating between not caring what townies thing (“Well, I guess replying to this isn’t going to help my case with you, but to be honest I’m not too worried about that at this stage.”) to nearly being crippled by it (“But if I change my vote now and am wrong, that will look bad. On the other hand, if I change my vote and it’s right, that would be better (for the game I mean, in both cases).)[/ul][/li][/quote] I really don’t follow your reasoning here. Easy for me to say, knowing I am town, but you are completely ignoring the very valid reasons I have stated many times for doing what I did. Yes, I vacillated - I had very little information to go on. > [@](#): > > Going back to Day One and Two makes a solid case that Dead Cat has been the one slacking off on the major analysis. Compare Dead Cat posts like Post 234 ([http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=18812025&postcount=234](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=18812025&postcount=234)), Post 400 ([http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=18830454&postcount=400](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=18830454&postcount=400)), and Post 397 ([http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=18829612&postcount=397](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=18829612&postcount=397)) to recent posts such as the posts justifying either me or Biotop. It’s not Biotop that has decreased posting/analysis; it’s Dead Cat. This is true of toDay (as explained above, I don’t feel I have done any proper analysis toDay, just posted a few thoughts) but I think is otherwise unfair. For example, my long post yesterDay which took 2 hours (yes, really) of reading the thread to compose. If it didn’t amount to anything much, well, so be it, but I can assure you I am still trying. And for the record, I wasn’t trying to impress anyone by including myself in the pairings, just trying to get a handle on how an outsider might see it and which pairings could make sense. I think you’re clutching at straws here trying to save your own skin. I think I had better find time to re-read the thread before I post again, but that will probably be tomorrow. I am happy with my vote on the basis that on my last re-read (which was admittedly fairly brief), I couldn’t see anything obvious to really separate Hooker and Biotop, but unlike Mahaloth (who said he got suspicious when people agreed with him) I see Hooker’s going after me toDay as hostile. If, on re-read, I find good reasons to change my vote, I will. ---
**Author:** ![Biotop](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biotop/32/321_2.png) [@Biotop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biotop)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2015, 6:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/768 "2015-12-01T18:42:37Z")
**Hooker** , I see a mutual Scum **DeadCat** / **Suburban Plankton** bussing as less probable because it doesn’t give the wolves another way out. While unlikely, had anyone bought into the “\*\*DeadCat \*\*as Scum” argument then \*\*SPlankton \*\*might have been spared… and with a Town **DeadCat** mislynch the game would have been just about over with a Scum win at least 75% probable. I get where you come from with regards to a **DC** / **SP** “debate” being an elaborate put-on, but if they are doing that then it means they had pretty much given up the game to a 50% tie coinflip. By your own admission, You did not realize that a tie at the end game was not a wolf win. That makes me think your bussing much more likely than **DeadCat.** +++++ _Mystery#1: How did we move from **Professor P** ’s near certain lynch on Day 1 to **Sario** ’s mislynch?_ Either **DeadCat** or\*\* Hooker\*\* could be the “middle voter” who helped change the vote from **Professor P** to **Sario**. Prior to that vote however, **DeadCat** had been making a strong case against **Prof P.** , while\*\* Hooker\*\* had been saying he saw little suspicious about the **Professor**. That makes me more suspicious of **Hooker**. However, I and others have noted how **DeadCat** certainly made sure we noticed that a **Prof P**. Scum flip would “make me virtually confirmed Town?” Hmmm… Either player as Scum helps explain Mystery #1. However, my lean is still on **Hooker**. \* Mystery #2: Why did the wolves kill **PCM** on Night #?\* Perhaps the wolves have a power role that outed our Doctor. Maybe the wolves were trying to set up **Dante G**. and \*\*Hooker \*\*was ready to lead that charge on Day #3. But I also note that in post #452, his last Day 2 post before dying, **Precambrianmollusc** says that he is “hellishly wary” of **DeadCa\*\*\*\*t**. So I suppose that could have gotten him on a Scum **DeadCat** ’s bad side. I think this is a wash. Neither player as Scum really solves the question with any certainty. _Mystery #3: Why did **Mahaloth** confess so quickly on Day 3?_ I still do not buy into the “He forgot what Day it was” defense. Even if he did forget, why give up? This game seems to turn on a dime. Nothing is ever certain, as we have seen time and again. The confession makes no sense to me unless **Mahaloth** had a very good reason. I think he had a Wolf already voting for him and decided that confessing was the best overall strategy. I also note that there are several posts by\*\* Suburban Plankton\*\* all around **Mahaloth** ’s confession which now read to me like a **SP** attempt to change the subject from **Mahaloth**. Perhaps **Mahaloth** also confessed to protect \*\*Suburban Plankton \*\*from giving himself away for trying too hard to protect **Mahaloth**. Again almost a wash.\*\* DeadCat\*\* being the first one to vote for **Mahaloth** gives him the trust edge for me. It was proactive, not reactive voting. That makes me slightly more suspicious of **Hooker**. But I do see the \*\*\*Deadcat \*_was “trapped” after the voting unexpectedly took off_ argument. \*Mystery #4: Why are all the players voting for \*\*Suburban Plankton \*_on Day 5_? I have discussed this above, and it seems to me that the best explanation is that the wolf voting for \*\*SP \*\*thought it was in the best interest his team to do so. **Hooker** admits he believed there could be an outright Scum win with a two player tie at the end of the game. If he and **SP** thought that, then the Scum plan makes a lot more sense to me than any plan that only plays for a tie. More of a scum lean to **Hooker** on Mystery #4 **Hooker** , I still think you are the final wolf, but I have to give you credit for playing right up until the end. And you have succeeded in planting a seed or two of doubt in my mind, so whether you are Scum or Town, I tip my hat to you again. ---
**Author:** ![HookerChemical](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/278dde/32.png) [@HookerChemical](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HookerChemical)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2015, 7:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/769 "2015-12-01T19:42:57Z")
> [@Biotop](#): > > I see a mutual Scum **DeadCat** / **Suburban Plankton** bussing as less probable because it doesn’t give the wolves another way out. While unlikely, had anyone bought into the “\*\*DeadCat \*\*as Scum” argument then \*\*SPlankton \*\*might have been spared… and with a Town **DeadCat** mislynch the game would have been just about over with a Scum win at least 75% probable. I get where you come from with regards to a **DC** / **SP** “debate” being an elaborate put-on, but if they are doing that then it means they had pretty much given up the game to a 50% tie coinflip. > > By your own admission, You did not realize that a tie at the end game was not a wolf win. That makes me think your bussing much more likely than **DeadCat.** You’re misinterpreting my statement a bit about the end of game thing. I understood the rule, but I was also under the impression that the vast majority of Mafia games ended with a scum win when scum=town. If I was a wolf bussing SP, the bussing started shortly after IRC’s claim. That claim pretty much wiped off everybody’s list of top scum (Dante and snfaulkner were the likely lynch targets). So I reread and came up with the theory that SP was scum. So rather than make the pivot to you or Dead Cat, I pivot to the alpha wolf, resulting in complete exoneration of snfaulkner and Dante. Scum would rather pivot to anybody but the alpha. If I were scum, why would I not have played for a mislynch yesterday? If I were scum and misunderstood the rules (as you believe I did), I’d have thought a mislynch would have been a scum victory. But rather than play for the win by lobbying for a Dante kill or trying to build a lynch on you or Dead Cat, you’re theorizing that I’ve played for a one on one Last Day. Keep in mind that this horrible plan you’re theorized I have STILL requires a Dead Cat or Biotop lynch to work. Why not go for that yesterday? If I am scum, I bussed the alpha SP starting two Days ago (rather than falling on my sword and widening the pool of candidates to include Dante G and snfaulkner), mid-day (so no nighttime planning to bus) and that SP honestly thought he could get a DC lynch going from scratch and with nobody giving any indication that they were considering a DC lynch. My theory is that Night 4 SP and DC came to the conclusion that the SP lynch was nearly inevitable and that DC should bus SP and play for a one on one Last Day. If I am scum, my plan is so horribly bad that I deserve to lose. ---
**Author:** ![HookerChemical](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/278dde/32.png) [@HookerChemical](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HookerChemical)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2015, 7:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/770 "2015-12-01T19:56:27Z")
> [@Dead\_Cat](#): > > You can’t have it both ways - above you say my vote for Biotop is poorly-justified (which I accept), here you criticise me for changing it. Clearly, if I don’t vote for Biotop I will vote for you. If you’re the wolf, you don’t need justification, only the mis-lynch. It’s the change that reeks of scum. When voting to win the game, you hung your hat on paper thin arguments against Biotop. When the wind (my vote) didn’t blow that way, you picked up and opportunistically voted for me because my death serves you equally well. Biotop and snfaulkner, take a look at Dead Cat’s justification for changing the vote to me. It makes absolutely no sense. > [@Dead\_Cat](#): > > … at the moment I find myself much more swayed by Biotop’s postings today than HookerChemical’s. Of course DC find Biotop’s arguments better than mine. Mine are for lynching Dead Cat and are in no way targeting Dead Cat as an audience. It is complete nonsense to base the change in vote on the basis of liking Biotop’s arguments more than mine _because I am arguing to lynch Dead Cat_. I think I can take it for granted that those arguments will not sway Dead Cat. Dead Cat only wants the mis-lynch and doesn’t care who it is. ---
**Author:** ![snfaulkner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snfaulkner/32/433_2.png) [@snfaulkner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snfaulkner)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2015, 11:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/771 "2015-12-01T23:05:39Z")
I have to say that I am relieved to no longer have to defend myself. But man, that was the only thing I was good at. I’m really enjoying the debate going on here and you all are making excellent points. I think I AM ready to remove **Biotop** from my list of suspects. If **Biotop** is the last wolf, he deserves to win. Or at least have the chance to win coin flips. So now…where do I go from here? Here’s some rambling thoughts…I’m sure you’ve all already done these calculations, I just need to type it out for myself to make sure I am following correctly. The wolf certainly wants a slam dunk mislynch. That takes it to 1 town-1 wolf ToMorrow for coin flip, his best option. 50% win The wolf certainly doesn’t want to BE lynched. He immediately loses. 0%win Is it better for town or wolf to have a tie at this stage? A tie between 2 townies is as good as a slam dunk mislynch, already determined to be his best option. 50% win A tie between him and a townie puts it at 50-50 coin flip toDay, and if he survives 50-50 toMorrow…so 25% to win, 75% lose Crap, being interrupted by work…more later… ---
**Author:** ![snfaulkner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snfaulkner/32/433_2.png) [@snfaulkner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snfaulkner)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2015, 12:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/772 "2015-12-02T00:09:24Z")
> [@Biotop](#): > > **Hooker,** why didn’t you ask about the tie-breaker if you were unclear when I was explicitly posting about it several times yesterDay? You say I only mentioned it once, but I either stated it directly or implied it heavily in Posts #663, #710, #727, #729 and #733. Were you not focused on any of those posts? It was also right there in the rules when we started the game. _Were you not reading my posts at all yesterDay? And if not, why not?_ If you really did not understand the rules on the tie breaker, then I have my answer to Mystery #4. Why would a wolf vote for scum **SP** if the result would be at best a tie for them? Because the wolves somehow thought they would win with a tie. And **Hooker,** if you actually did understand the tie rule already, then the question is a fake one and only a wolf would have reason to ask a phony question. I, too, was kind of confused why **HC** would ask. And why at Night? It did seem at first like he might be wolfishly plotting, and maybe realizing possible missteps of the Day/s before. But if if he was the wolf and needed this info from our Humble Narrator, why wouldn’t he have just asked on/from the wolfpuke message board?:dubious: ---
**Author:** ![snfaulkner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snfaulkner/32/433_2.png) [@snfaulkner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snfaulkner)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2015, 12:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/773 "2015-12-02T00:24:33Z")
> [@Biotop](#): > > …\*\* DeadCat\*\* being the first one to vote for **Mahaloth** gives him the trust edge for me. It was proactive, not reactive voting. That makes me slightly more suspicious of **Hooker**. But I do see the \*\*\*Deadcat \*_was “trapped” after the voting unexpectedly took off_ argument. While I can see the “proactive voting” argument, I don’t think it gives him the trust edge. I can see the “trapped” argument as well. Which makes more sense to me? Well at the moment, a wolf **DeadCat** being trapped as the 1st person to bus makes more sense than a wolf **Hooker Chemical** bussing with the 3rd vote to get the bandwagon rolling. This is what took **HC** off my wolfdar a few Days ago. Do these things mean I think **DeadCat** is the final wolf? Man, I’m not sure yet. But they do give **HC** townier cred. I have to review more of **DC** ’s posts/votes. ---
**Author:** ![HookerChemical](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/278dde/32.png) [@HookerChemical](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HookerChemical)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2015, 12:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/774 "2015-12-02T00:31:14Z")
> [@snfaulkner](#): > > I, too, was kind of confused why **HC** would ask. And why at Night? It did seem at first like he might be wolfishly plotting, and maybe realizing possible missteps of the Day/s before. But if if he was the wolf and needed this info from our Humble Narrator, why wouldn’t he have just asked on/from the wolfpuke message board?:dubious: There’s also the element that if there had been wolfish missteps, asking for the clarification would do nothing to fix them, only draw attention. I got to the computer at Night, and that’s the kind of discussion that I understand to be kosher at night, so I asked. I don’t see how the answer to the question would have impacted the Night Kill. Finally, I have a track record of wanting the rules to be clear and understood before they come into play (Post 349). (On a side note I didn’t like the way Day 3 ended for this very reason. The morning of the EOD, the EOD was moved up an hour with a 2 hour warning. I had gone to bed that night knowing that the Mahaloth lynch was safely locked in and was in no particular hurry to read the thread in the morning. I loaded things up at a nice leisurely 8AM, my time, to find TexCat’s accusation leveled at me and that the Day had been ended. It would have been nice to be able to respond to TexCat and get her response, but her death on Night Three made that impossible. There’s no guarantee I could have eased her suspicions [probably not], but I never had the opportunity.) ---
**Author:** ![snfaulkner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snfaulkner/32/433_2.png) [@snfaulkner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snfaulkner)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2015, 12:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/775 "2015-12-02T00:44:33Z")
> [@HookerChemical](#): > > There’s also the element that if there had been wolfish missteps, asking for the clarification would do nothing to fix them, only draw attention. I got to the computer at Night, and that’s the kind of discussion that I understand to be kosher at night, so I asked. I don’t see how the answer to the question would have impacted the Night Kill. Finally, I have a track record of wanting the rules to be clear and understood before they come into play (Post 349). That’s exactly what I was getting at; you asking at night certainly doesn’t make you wolf. Other things might. But this is a non-issue. ---
**Author:** ![snfaulkner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snfaulkner/32/433_2.png) [@snfaulkner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snfaulkner)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2015, 12:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/776 "2015-12-02T00:47:48Z")
Immago eat a burrito before I continue to anguish over this game. ---
**Author:** ![Biotop](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biotop/32/321_2.png) [@Biotop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biotop)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2015, 4:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/777 "2015-12-02T04:23:49Z")
> [@snfaulkner](#): > > Immago eat a burrito before I continue to anguish over this game. If it is any help, \*\*snfaulkner \*\*, I understand your anguish. I am not sure anymore whether my current vote is right. I am almost glad to be going to work tomorrow so I don’t have to fret about this game for a few hours. ---
**Author:** ![Dead\_Cat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9fc29f/32.png) [@Dead\_Cat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dead_Cat)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2015, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/778 "2015-12-03T00:17:05Z")
Ok, I have just spent another two hours rereading the thread and composing this post. I think I have probably made my final decision, but I will probably attempt another post or two after this one to try to address Hooker’s case against me. > [@HookerChemical](#): > > Do I get points for catching Johnny’s first fuck-up? I’ve still got a vote lingering on WF Tomba (post 45). Having noted that… > > UNOVTE WF TOMBA > VOTE DEAD CAT > > This is a “gut feeling” based vote. DC is coming off as unnecessarily combative, which is a potential scum tell. I don’t know if it’s the fact that I played the last game with Prof. P and get the references he’s making, but his comments weren’t scummy. They’re self-referential and meta, akin to the cheese joke running gags, but they weren’t initially scummy. It may be “good vibes” carryover from last game, but I’m siding with Prof P in this dispute for now. I’ll reread the conversation again tomorrow again and see if I still feel that way. One factor in DC’s favor is that it’s a poor scum gambit to be unnecessarily combative with a verbose and friendly poster when you’re the newcomer. “Good vibes” and history are likely to carry over to the new guy. I’ll be considering this and trying to put away “good vibes” the next time I reread. I had actually completely forgotten that you tried to build a case against me back on Day 1. You did later unvote me but I think that was after it became clear that I wasn’t getting enough attention to be the Day 1 mislynch. I also noticed Hooker spending a fair amount of Day 1 defending Prof P. > [@HookerChemical](#): > > I’m much more worried about wolves moving us away from a tie than into a tie. Sure, a no-lynch isn’t good, but it’s better than a mis-lynch. (I get that this is a debatable position, but that isn’t critical to my argument.) > > There are three outcomes: mis-lynch, no-lynch, wolf-lynch. Wolves probably rank them in that order. If they engineered a no-lynch, that says to me they are trying to avoid a wolf-lynch. > > Does anybody else read it differently? I didn’t pick up on this at the time or since, but I’m now questioning it: why worry about wolves moving a vote away from a tie? This would only benefit the wolves if it created a certain mislynch instead of a possible wolf lynch. But it would also be a very risky strategy as the voters doing so would come under strong suspicion next Day. The subtext of this post is to try to get us not to worry about a tie. > [@Precambrianmollusc](#): > > So we had Prof P in the lead with Sario, PCM ( me!) , Dead cat , SNFaulkner, Bio and Texcat on post 218 > > The switching started with SNFaulkner at 237 , followed by Astral joining, not switching, in post 245, then Deadcat switched in 284, and WFTomba jumped on the bandwagon at 288 > I would be wondering about SNFaulkner and Deadcat, but they were votes 3 and 4 putting Prof out in an early lead. There wasn’t any real momentum, at that point, Sario with his vote and my ‘snuggling’ vote. Can’t really see scum bussing scum so early on day one. For now they don’t look too suspicious, WFT could be jumping on a band wagon to avoid any chance the Prof would get lynched. > > For now not so sure that is where to look for scum > [@Suburban\_Plankton](#): > > Scum can and will bus each other early on Day 1; don’t discount anyone on that account. so PCM defends me and snf, and SP immediately casts doubt on this. That’s because snf and I are town, and it’s in in SP’s interest to keep us under suspicion. > [@HookerChemical](#): > > For what it’s worth, I find Mahaloth a hard read. His posts are brief and don’t contain deep analysis but they can contain good insights or ask good questions. I have a slight town lean, but with reservation. Defending scum Mahaloth here. > [@HookerChemical](#): > > I have to say, this was not the reaction I expected here. I half expected a “What he said” type post, but clearly that’s not the case. I’m curious why you dismiss the case against WF Tomba (primarily) and why you dismissed the case against Prof P if not for the reasons I dismissed it. This is in response to Mahaloth voting for him. I think this is classic scum on scum to distance themselves from each other. I also have a theory that explains one of Biotop’s “mysteries”. Maybe Mahaloth realised on Night 2 that he wasn’t going to be able to participate much more in the coming weeks, which would have put him under suspicion. So he and his fellow wolves hatched a plan - one of them would bus him next Day, then he would confess which would sow lots of seeds of confusion among town players. This theory, while perhaps a little outlandish, does seem to fit the facts. If I may quote Sherlock Holmes, once you have eliminated the impossible [i.e. in this case, snf being scum], whatever is left must be the answer. > [@HookerChemical](#): > > Biotop didn’t do the analysis I wanted him to, so I’ll do it myself and not piggyback again. Sorry this is coming later than I’d hoped, but it’s been a weird week for me. > > Here’s the final list of those voting for Sario: > [ul][li]IRConfused[/li][li]Prof P[/li][li]snfaulkner[/li][li]Astral[/li][li]Dead Cat[/li][li]WF Tomba[/li][li]HookerChemical[/li][li]Mahaloth[/li][/ul] > And here’s the list for WF Tomba: > [ul][li]Suburban[/li][li]octarine[/li][li]Dante G[/li][li]snfaulkner[/li][li]Dead Cat[/li][li]HookerChemical[/li][li]Biotop[/li][li]TexCat[/li][/ul] > I think I got the order correct, and corrections are welcome. As I’ve said before, I think the suspicion profile more or less peaks in the middle. There are three people who show up on both lists: snfaulkner, Dead Cat, and me (HookerChemical). There was obviously enough suspicion on WFT and Sario to get townie buy-in for the lynch, but the three people voting for the mis-lynch both times have to be viewed with suspicion. (Yes, that means me.) I’m not saying they’re scum (I’m not) but you have to be raising an eyebrow at them. I still have a townie read on Dead Cat, but snfaulkner is suspect. Snfaulkner is pretty casual in his dsmissal of Prof P’s ability to manipulate him in Post 380 (“The Prof certainly hornswaggled me!”) and Post 425 (“I fell for the Bamboozel”). There’s nothing outright scummy about those, but they ring insincere and too quickly dismiss the issue. On the other hand, some of his clearly innocuous posts are a bit whimsical as well (Post 445 “Thanks for the count, good sir!). I’m leaning more scum on snfaulkner than I was, but I have better candidates for now. > > We’re also pretty in mid-game. The PCM night kill doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. It could have been the result of a Night One scum watcher who saw he was a power role, but that’s unsupported speculation. Maybe PCM was riding the right level of staying off the radar to get on the scum radar (i.e. “He’s doing well at not attracting attention. He might be a power role, so let’s kill him.”). He also has a good voting record. PCM wasn’t part of either mis-lynch. > > We’re now at the point where WFT’s premature suggestion of asking why experienced players are still around is a good idea rather than a likely self-inflicted wound. I know Mahaloth, Suburban Plankton, and TexCat are pretty experienced on SDMB. I think Dante G is experienced, but on other boards. Dante G is getting plenty of suspicion, so if he’s not scum it’s clear why he wasn’t night killed. > > Rereading PCM yesterday and the posts today, I’m sticking with my Dante G vote on the basis that PCM was killed for charging so hard for Dante G. I reiterate that I cannot reconcile the multiple gaffes with his posts from other games, where his posts were much clearer and didn’t appear to have such massive slips. I’ve said before that I don’t think a slip is a good basis for suspicion, but we have a pattern of sloppy wording from Dante that I’m more comfortable voting. As I said in Post 379, I thought there was a scum between WFT and Dante G. I backed the wrong lynch Day Two, but I still feel that I was right about one of the two being scum. > > As I’ve said previously, I think Mahaloth’s a hard read, and as time has moved on, I’ve moved to a scummier read on him. Initially, I thought his posts were mostly targeted at getting more information out of other players without having to develop much himself, but I’m growing more and more wary of him. Rather than trying to generate information/analysis, his posts are destroying information and muddying the waters. Post 402 is almost entirely dedicated to discrediting others’ information/suspicions. Post 459 sees no reason for it to be unfortunate and asks why IRConfused feels that it’s unfortunate that WF Tomba (who IRC believes to be town) is about to be lynched, when it’s obvious why that would be (somebody believed to be a townie about to be lynched). Post 437 is a nonsensical vote against me for explaining why I didn’t buy the case against Prof P, _when Mahaloth was being asked the very same question and still hasn’t offered much explanation_. Post 459 does nothing to contribute to the discussion but rather dismisses a reasonable concern. Post 495 accuses Biotop of perfect knowledge when discussing the number of scum, but it was established very early that four was the most likely number of scum and several previous posts has used that as a basis for discussion. As Biotop puts it well in Post 511 “I wish when Mahaloth doesn’t see a case others are pointing out, he would give some details as to where we are wrong.” As it is, I feel his posts have muddied things rather than adding to the discussion. Right now, he’s sitting with a vote on Biotop, after he felt strongly enough in Post 437 to throw away a vote on me (meaning that there was no chance of a consensus being built to lynch me at that point). Mahaloth is rising quickly up my list of scum candidates. This is the bussing I refer to above. It also casts suspicion on other townies such as me, snf, and particularly Dante. For this theory to work, I also need another theory to explain why Hooker went after SP subsequently. I think that’s easy on Day 4 - it’s bussing to gain town cred. Day 5 is tougher but I think the theory that Hooker misunderstood or forgot the win conditions and was playing to end toDay with a mislynch which he thought would win him the game is plausible. Ultimately, the reason I am happy to leave my vote on Hooker and not change back to Biotop is because on rereading, it seemed to me that while Hooker has posted a lot, apart from bussing Mahaloth and SP he has not done a great deal of scum hunting, and very little successful scum hunting. Given that I know one of Hooker and Biotop is a wolf, I could hardly find anything in Biotop’s posts that suggested scumminess, whereas I have all the above for Hooker. In addition, I can’t help but be influenced by Hooker going after me. I do realise that it is possible Hooker is a townie who is equally sadly mistaken about me as I am about him, in which case all we can do is congratulate Biotop on a superbly played game. > [@HookerChemical](#): > > It’s the change that reeks of scum. When voting to win the game, you hung your hat on paper thin arguments against Biotop. That is an unfair characterisation of my initial vote. I was merely posting some initial thoughts, I am sorry if I did not make that clear enough at the time. I had not done enough analysis. > [@](#): > > When the wind (my vote) didn’t blow that way, you picked up and opportunistically voted for me because my death serves you equally well. To be honest, there was some truth in this, because I was really struggling to choose between the two of you. Obviously I would much prefer whichever of you is scum to die, but given I don’t know who that is, I definitely don’t want to die myself, as that is a guaranteed mislynch. > [@](#): > > Biotop and snfaulkner, take a look at Dead Cat’s justification for changing the vote to me. It makes absolutely no sense. > > Of course DC find Biotop’s arguments better than mine. Mine are for lynching Dead Cat and are in no way targeting Dead Cat as an audience. It is complete nonsense to base the change in vote on the basis of liking Biotop’s arguments more than mine _because I am arguing to lynch Dead Cat_. I think I can take it for granted that those arguments will not sway Dead Cat When you put it like that, it’s fair comment I suppose. On the other hand, what do you expect me to do? I hope in this post I have at least demonstrated a better rationale for my vote. It’s now up to Biotop if he wishes to change his vote, and snf to decide which of the three of us he least believes. ---
**Author:** ![Dead\_Cat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9fc29f/32.png) [@Dead\_Cat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dead_Cat)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2015, 12:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/779 "2015-12-03T00:32:28Z")
> [@HookerChemical](#): > > You’re misinterpreting my statement a bit about the end of game thing. I understood the rule, but I was also under the impression that the vast majority of Mafia games ended with a scum win when scum=town. > > If I was a wolf bussing SP, the bussing started shortly after IRC’s claim. That claim pretty much wiped off everybody’s list of top scum (Dante and snfaulkner were the likely lynch targets). So I reread and came up with the theory that SP was scum. So rather than make the pivot to you or Dead Cat, I pivot to the alpha wolf, resulting in complete exoneration of snfaulkner and Dante. Scum would rather pivot to anybody but the alpha. > > If I were scum, why would I not have played for a mislynch yesterday? If I were scum and misunderstood the rules (as you believe I did), I’d have thought a mislynch would have been a scum victory. But rather than play for the win by lobbying for a Dante kill or trying to build a lynch on you or Dead Cat, you’re theorizing that I’ve played for a one on one Last Day. Keep in mind that this horrible plan you’re theorized I have STILL requires a Dead Cat or Biotop lynch to work. Why not go for that yesterday? > > If I am scum, I bussed the alpha SP starting two Days ago (rather than falling on my sword and widening the pool of candidates to include Dante G and snfaulkner), mid-day (so no nighttime planning to bus) and that SP honestly thought he could get a DC lynch going from scratch and with nobody giving any indication that they were considering a DC lynch. > > My theory is that Night 4 SP and DC came to the conclusion that the SP lynch was nearly inevitable and that DC should bus SP and play for a one on one Last Day. > > If I am scum, my plan is so horribly bad that I deserve to lose. You know what, despite my previous post, the one I have quoted above still makes a lot of sense (I had forgotten about it when composing my previous post). Or to put it another way, it casts a huge amount of doubt on my carefully crafted theory - why would the wolves play this way? However, if the above post is true, I would say it gives me townie cred as well. Biotop was the one who waited quite some time before joining the SP vote. This could be for the legitimate reasons he posted, or it could be because he is the wolf and was trying to find a way of avoiding the lynch of the Alpha, but couldn’t. So, let’s try it this way: Biotop, can you think of anything that will get us out of this predicament? Hooker, why don’t you try assuming I am town and see if you can come up with a case against Biotop? There is a real risk here that we are both town and we lose because we’re too invested in going after each other. snf - now is the time to tell us your thoughts, because you can post without coming under any suspicion. ---
**Author:** ![snfaulkner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snfaulkner/32/433_2.png) [@snfaulkner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snfaulkner)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2015, 2:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/780 "2015-12-03T02:05:20Z")
Sorry for not playing much today. One of the nicest dogs whom I’ve ever lived with(he’s a foster while his owner is away for a few months) was hospitalized today. Diabetes, we think. Anyway, it’s tough to talk about killing wolves when I’m worried about keeping this dog alive. Latest news is he is responding well, so that’s good. I promise to focus on this game tomorrow. As for right now, I can only think Biotop is definitely town. And HC and DC are town equally with each other, but in different ways. So obviously I am wrong somewhere. Everyone is making extremely compelling, plausible arguments… [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585.md?page=38) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585.md?page=40)